Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, November 13 2009

Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change

Overview: In this period the open interest was increasing in the SF, the Yen pound and to a small extent in the DI, while the biggest decreases were in the Euro and the AUD. Total OI was up about 4800 contracts. The total long something else and short the dollar increased modestly to 238,838 contracts from the previous period of 231,838. In the pound the large spec remains a good size short but the small spec did flip to a small long. 
Markets with the largest ownership of the open interest by the small spec are the Cad 41.8%, the Swiss Franc, 37.9% and the Euro 30.3% of the total. Small specs are of particular interest because they are often the quickest to exit the market during difficult times. Changes in the OI were rather subdued during the period. The biggest change in these markets was in the Swiss franc where specs buy, perhaps as a proxy to short the dollar.

Analysis: Small traders are only a very small portion of this market, but did flip from a long to a short in the DI. Large traders  are the big short but modestly reduced their positions. Commercials reduced both their longs and short, remaining a 1.7 to one long

Analysis:  Large traders increased both longs and shorts and remain about a 1.8 to 1. long. Small traders are also long, a large share of this market. Commercials are a 2 to 1 short in this market and shed a few contracts of both positions.

Analysis: Small specs cautiously flipped their position from a a small short to a small long in the pound. OI was modestly higher as the large specs bought over 4000 contracts and the commercials sold over 4400 contracts. Large specs remain short and the commercial remains long.

Analysis: OI increased modestly mostly because of the commercial activity. Large specs remained a 2 to 1 long in this market. Commercials  are the biggest participants in this market, short over 63% of the total.

Analysis: There was a 9% increase in the OI during the period, as the small and the large specs bought and the commercials sold. Large specs are not a 10 to 1 long and the small guy is a 2.5 to one long. The small trader is long 37.9% of the total OI. The long SF may be more of a short dollar play than a long Swissy.

Analysis: Small specs are now the largest players on the long side of this market, and are about a 2 to 1 long. The large spec remains almost a 4 to 1 long but reduced his exposure by selling short over 4000 contracts during the period. Small specs are now long over 41% of the total OI>

Analysis: There was a modest decrease in the OI of this small market as some of the big spec longs began to peel out of their longs. Commercials likewise reduce a portion of their big short position. There remain 14 spec longs owning 69.7% of the total OI and 11 commercials who hold 76.7% of the short side of the market. Small specs are a 2 to 1 long.

Analysis: A small decrease in the OI during the past week primarily by commercials who reduced both long and short positions. Commercials remain a massive 81.1% of the total OI. Spec, large and small are the longs, with the small specs gradually increasing their share of the market.