Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, November 7 2009

Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change

Overview: The feature during the reporting period was a 21,764 liquidation in the total open interest. The biggest reduction was in the CAD where the central banker had been warning that the strong loonie was a hindrance to economic recovery. That opinion was confirmed in economic reports this week. The total position in short the dollar and long something else was reduced to 231,838 contracts down from 261,963 contracts in the previous week. This excludes the speculator short position in the pound which was reduced by 16,777 contracts. The small traders in the DI were the only ones to flip their position from a short to a long. The markets with the biggest small spec long position is the CAD 39.1%, the SF 35.4%, and the Euro 29.6%.

Analysis: Spec traders both large and small increased longs and decreased shorts. Small traders flipped from a net short to a net long position. The commercial trader reduced his long and increased his short positions. Total OI decreased a little buy belied the position shifts among the groups.

Analysis: Open interest increased very modestly. Large and small specs both reduced longs and decreased shorts. Small spec has reduced his long share of the OI to 29.6%. Commercials increased longs and decreased shorts and are now about 2 to 1 short.

Analysis: The large spec was probably the cause and the casualty of the run up as he liquidated almost 10,000 contracts of shorts and went long over 3000 contracts. Small specs took the same actions. Commercials reduced longs and aggressively increased shorts.

Analysis: Commercials liquidated both their long and short positions but remain long. Large traders are 2 to 1 long the yen. Small traders are equally balanced long and short. No feature here.

Analysis: Large specs remain big, 8.6 to 1 long in this small market. Small specs are also a big long, a total of 35.4% of the OI. This leaves commercials short 74.6% of the OI.

Analysis: Big liquidation in this market as the large specs sold longs and the commercials covered shorts. Big specs remain almost 8 to 1 long. The biggest long position is not held by the small specs who are long 39.1% of the total market. Perhaps the central bank's jawboning talked some people out of their positions.

Analysis: Fourteen large spec, probably funds remain long 72.2% of the total OI while twelve commercials are short 83.6% of the OI. This big spec position is being reduced. Small specs are also a 2.5 to one long in this small market.

Analysis: Open Interest stayed about the same but the large and small specs reduced their longs and the commercial increased his long positions. The large spec remain a 10 to 1 long and the little guy is a 2.5 to 1 long. Fifteen commercials are short 81.7% of the total OI in the AUD. No one is close to changing their mind in this market.