Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, October 24 2009

Legend: Net Long  Net Short  Position Change

Overview: Aside from the pound and to a lesser extent the Cad, the changes in the open interest during the period were small and subtle. In the pound OI was down as the specs, who had leaned excessively hard on the short side of the market and got run in.  Speculators remained short 52,448 contracts of the pound at the end of the period and were aided by the late week break. The total number of specs who were short the dollar, or long something else and by default short the dollar went down from 319,272 contracts to 305,590 contracts. The most unusual change for the week was in the Euro. Despite making new yearly highs on the Euro versus the dollar, both the specs and the commercials were reducing their net positions. Are they conceding the move is about over?  Small specs have the largest percentage market totals in the Swiss franc, 38%, the Cad, 35.6% and the Euro, 29.9%. In the SF, the speculator has been very successful taking money from the commercial. Small specs are usually the quickest to exit the market during adversity. Despite the dollars bearish press releases this week, the spec did not add to his positions.

Analysis: There was not much movement of positions during the period. Specs who had been long the yen reduced positions, the small spec more than the large. Large specs remain almost a 3 to 1 long. Commercials are on the short side of the yen but did some buying during the period.

Analysis: OI continues to climb in a market dominated by spec longs and commercial shorts. Commercials are short  by over a 9 to 1 ratio while the large specs are a 5 to 1 long. Small specs are long 38% of the total OI in this market.

Analysis: OI climbed a little over 8% during the period with small specs the feature on the buy side. They are now long 35.6% of the total OI. The large specs, probably funds remain long on almost a 6 to 1 ratio, while the commercial is heavily short.

Analysis: Very little change in this small market. The large specs, 18 of them own 78.6% of the OI, and the commercials, 11 of them are short 86.9% of the total. Small specs, though long, have only minor involvement in the Kiwi.

Analysis: The largest position changes in this currency was done by the small spec who was increasing his short and decreasing his long. The large spec remains a 7 to 1 long in this market while the small spec is down to a 2 to 1 long.