Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change
Overview: The open interest in all contracts went up during the past week by a total of 56,582 contracts. The biggest increase was in the CAD, followed by the pound. Activity in both the Cad and the pound was the large spec, buying the loonie and selling the pound.
The total spec short USD and long something else is now 255,576 contracts. The spec, especially the large spec, has aggressively sold the pound futures, which by default means he is long the dollar. If we exclude the pound positions, that means the dollar short in the remaining 7 contracts balloons to 326,852 contracts. Small specs can be a flighty bunch, and are often the quickest to flee markets if they sense adverse conditions. This week, the biggest spec positions as a percentage of the relative market is in the Euro, followed by the CAD, and then the Swissie, all of course longs. The large spec continues to buy the Swiss franc, but the small spec liquidated a small part of his position. Interest in the perceived commodity based currencies continues and the OI keeps growing.
USD
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 33,322 | 10,302 | 19,736 | 2,659 | 4,264 | 17,606 | 6,567 |
| 2,372 | 1,554 | 2,165 | -275 | 364 | 829 | -421 |
| 30.9 | 59.2 | 8.0 | 12.8 | 52.8 | 19.7 |
Analysis: Large spec increased both their long and short positions and are now about a 2 to 1 short. OI increased by 7% during the period indicating not a ground swell of new interest in the DI. Commercials increased longs and decreased short. Small specs are not active in this market probably prefering the cash FOREX.
EUR
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 194,508 | 86,460 | 31,070 | 58,667 | 35,602 | 33,579 | 112,034 |
| 4,996 | 8,410 | -2,997 | -542 | -1,649 | -2,210 | 10,305 |
| 44.5 | 16.0 | 39.2 | 18.3 | 17.3 | 57.6 |
Analysis: The OI was up only a modest 2.5% in the period. The big feature was the large spec increasing his long and decreasing his short. The commercial was doing just the opposite while the small spec was reducing both longs and shorts. The small spec is a very large participant in this market and over 2 to 1 long. The large spec is a 2.8 to 1 long.
GBP
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 120,124 | 11,651 | 74,467 | 20,190 | 28,651 | 83,145 | 11,869 |
| 13,963 | -3,611 | 11,080 | 1,631 | 2,311 | 15,421 | 50 |
| 9.7 | 62.0 | 16.8 | 23.9 | 69.2 | 9.9 |
Analysis: The large spec continues to pile on the short side of the pound, and is now a 6.4 to 1 short. OI was up 11.6% during the week. There are 39 large traders or entities short 62% of this market. Commercials increased longs by over 15 thousand contracts during the period, and are now about 7 to 1 long. Small specs are modest shorts in this market.
JPY
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 134,236 | 62,475 | 16,279 | 34,312 | 22,002 | 28,502 | 87,009 |
| 3,513 | -1,047 | -1,245 | 2,668 | -32 | -173 | 2,725 |
| 45.5 | 12.1 | 25.6 | 16.4 | 21.2 | 64.8 |
Analysis: There was not a lot of change in commitments during the period with most participants merely holding positions. Large specs are almost 4 to 1 long the yen and the commercial is a 3 to 1 short. Small specs did increase their modest long.
CHF
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 52,625 | 28,166 | 4,507 | 19,522 | 7,600 | 3,271 | 38,854 |
| 4,723 | 5,342 | -530 | -676 | 634 | -343 | 4,218 |
| 53.5 | 8.6 | 37.1 | 14.4 | 6.2 | 73.8 |
Analysis: The OI increased almost 9% for the period with the large specs on the buy side. They are now a 6.6 to 1 long. The small spec likewise is an unbalanced long while the commercial is a 11.9 to 1 short. Small specs compose a very large % of the OI.
CAD
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 98,674 | 41,808 | 5,897 | 37,890 | 18,140 | 14,072 | 69,734 |
| 18,602 | 16,926 | -185 | 3,078 | 1,703 | -2,081 | 16,404 |
| 42.4 | 6.0 | 38.4 | 18.4 | 14.3 | 70.7 |
Analysis: There was a 19% increases in the OI with the large spec aggressively accumulating longs, and are now a 7 to 1 long. Small spec likewise flocked to the long side and now are a 2 to 1 long, and are big participants in this market. Commercials, about 20 of them, increased shorts and modestly reduced their longs.
NZD
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 24,851 | 19,606 | 1.513 | 3.055 | 1,126 | 2,190 | 22,212 |
| 1,075 | 561 | -29 | -334 | 79 | 848 | 1.025 |
| 78.9 | 6.1 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 8.8 | 89.4 |
Analysis: Eighteen large specs dominate this market with a long of almost 80% of the total OI. Small specs, almost a 3 to 1 long pealed out of some of their positions. Commercials are short almost 90% of the total market.
AUD
| Total OI | Long | Short | Long | Short | Long | Short |
| 115,893 | 58,141 | 7,900 | 30,466 | 12,314 | 24,509 | 92,093 |
| 7,338 | 2,370 | 65 | 1,328 | 2,784 | 2,986 | 3,835 |
| 50.2 | 6.8 | 26.3 | 10.6 | 21.1 | 80.2 |
Analysis: The large specs added to their longs and the commercials added to their shorts, though the commercials were also the largest buyers during the period. There are 13 large commercials short 80% of the market. Small specs are a 2.5 to 1 long the Aussie but were net sellers of over 1400 contracts during the period.
