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Commitment of Trader Report

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Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, October 31 2009

Mon, Nov 2 2009, 07:12 GMT
by Ralph Shell

ForexRazor

Legend: Net Long  Net Short  Position Change

Overview: For the trading period ending October 27, 2009, it was a period of liquidation in all markets. The total open interest was down 31,411 contracts. Spec long positions of of other currencies, and by default short the dollar, plus the DI net short dollar positions, totaled  261,963 contracts this week down from 305,590 in the previous week. This excludes the specs short position in the pound. It will be interesting to see if the liquidation of the USD short positions continues next week. Markets with the largest spec percent of the total OI are the commodity currencies. There has been some minor liquidation in the Cad and the NZD but small specs seem to be replacing the large spec positions in the AUD. The markets with the largest per cent of small spec longs are the SF, 38.2%, the CAD 36.2% the Euro 31.5% and the AUD 28.8%. Usually small specs are the quickest to exit the market when confronted with adversity. Most of the changes this week are subtle. We intend to l follow closely in the coming week, looking for evidence of shifts in trader sentiment.

Analysis: The large spec remains a 2 to 1 long but aggressively reduced his position. Small specs reduced their long position and are close to flipping their position. Commercials are the dominant group in this currency, and they were increasing longs and buying in short positions during the position.

Analysis: There has been some reduction in the in the large specs long position be he remains an unbalanced  4 to 1 long. The small spec also has a very large percentage of the long side of this market, but peeled our of a portion of the position. Spec positions probably reflect an anti-dollar sentiment.

Analysis: Large specs have reduced their net position by over 7000 contracts but remain an unbalanced 8 to 1 long. These longs, probably hedge funds or commodity currency longs gave back some equity to the commercials last week. Small specs remain aggressive longs. Considering recent economic fundamentals and the central bankers views, there may be some more liquidation coming in this market.  Small specs are long 36.2% of the total OI.

Analysis: Seventeen large specs continue to hold 72.7% of the OI while 11 large commercials are short 82.8% of the OI. There was some modest liquidation of these positions during the period. Small spec, not big players in this market, are unbalanced longs.

Analysis: The large spec remains a 9 to 1 long but shows some signs of reducing that position. It looks like the reduction of the large specs position is being claimed by the small specs who increased their long and decreased shorts during the period. Small specs are now up to a 28.8% share of this market.  Commercials kept their short and decreased their long.

Published on  Mon, Nov 2 2009, 07:40 GMT