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Commitment of Trader Report

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Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, October 17 2009

Mon, Oct 19 2009, 12:01 GMT
by Ralph Shell

ForexRazor

Legend: Net Long  Net Short  Position Change

Overview: The total open interest did go up by 10,585 contracts during the period. The commodity currencies, CAD and the AUD, were responsible for the increase. The only futures market where the spec was short other than the USD, was the pound. The spec shows to be a large 76,707 contract short in the pound. The late week rally in the pound appeared to be spec liquidation when the pound rallied. The total speculative short position in the DI and the six other currencies not totals a record for the year of 319,272 contracts. The markets with the largest percentage of small spec longs is the Swiss franc 38.6%, followed by the CAD at 36.3% and then the Euro with 32.2%. As the CAD was printing a new season high versus the USD, the OI was increasing. Contrast this with a new high in the Euro, but liquidation in the OI. Perhaps taking a look at the EUR/CAD deserves consideration. There appears to be some position unwinding in the Japanese Yen as specs and commercial both throw in the towel. It will be interesting to see how much longer the small spec can take the commercial's money in the Swiss franc. For the second week in a row there were no flips in positions.

Analysis: Open interest decreased modestly during the period with large and small specs reducing their long positions by almost 16,000 contracts. The reason open interest was not down more is that the commericial was putting new long contracts on the books. The large spec still remains over a 3 to 1 long.

Analysis: The small spec is a 2.7 to 1 long and is long a massive 38.6% of this market. Large specs are also a large percentage long, and unlike the little spec show some signs of coming out. Eleven large commercials are a 10 to 1 long.

Analysis: The open interest in this market was up as the loonie pressed toward parity with the USD. Large spec, probably funds, continued their buying pattern and are now a 7 to 1 long. Small specs thought only a 2 to 1 long have a very big share of the long side in this market.

Analysis: Eighteen large spec longs continue to control a massive 79.7% of this small market. Small specs did get longer as the market was making new highs. Eleven large commercials remain short 89% of the market.

Analysis: Market adds 6.5% increase in the OI as the AUD climbs to new high ground. There are currently 26 large specs long 48.3% of the OI, while 15 large commercials are short 81.2% of the OI.The small spec adds to his long positions and is now up to a 2.5 to one ratio long.

Published on  Mon, Oct 19 2009, 13:43 GMT