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Commitment of Trader Report

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Data and Analysis for Most Recent Release, November 17 2009

Mon, Nov 23 2009, 07:22 GMT
by Ralph Shell

ForexRazor

Legend: Net Long Net Short Position Change

Overview: This was a period when there was expansion in the open interest. The AUD and the yen both increased by over 10,000 contracts, the Euro almost 10,000 and the Cad almost 9,000 contracts. Only the pound OI decreased in a market that seemed inhospitable to any positions.
Despite the total OI increase of 42,005 contracts, there was only a modest increase in the dollar short positions. Excluding the pound the total long something else and short the dollar went up to 243,702 contracts, from the previous week's total of 238,838. The biggest decrease in the short dollar positions by specs was in the Euro, a reduction of 12,244 contracts while the biggest increase in dollar short positions by speculators was 8899 contracts in the yen. Small specs had the largest % of the total OI in the Cad, 38.7%, the Swiss franc 34.6% and the Euro, 30.0%. The largest small spec short position, as a percentage  of the total OI, was in the pound, 22.5% followed by the Cad 20.6% and the Euro 20.5%. There was some weakness and probable liquidation later this past week, after the end of the this reporting period.

Analysis: Open interest 11.4% of the total with the large spec buying over 5000 contracts, but they still remain net short a modest amount. The small spec, not a big players in this market decreased his long and increased his short, while commercials increased shorts during the period.

Analysis: Large traders increased their longs by over 10,000 . Commercials were on the opposite side of the trade and decreased their shorts and increased longs by almost 10,000 contracts. The small trader who continues to have a big percentage, 30.3%, of the total open interest increased both longs and shorts.

Analysis: The OI went down during the period with the commercials reducing the long and the large spec reducing his short. Large specs had been  a very large short but exited the market on the run up in the last month. The small spec has moved to the long side of this market, but is net long only 2918 contracts. All groups are now fairly evenly balanced.

Analysis: The 8% increase in the open interest the large spec buying and the commercial selling.  Large specs are now a 3.6 to 1 long in this market. Small specs are net long but only modest players in the yen. By reducing his long over 4000, and increasing his short by over 14,000 contracts this represents an 18,000 contract commitment to the short side of the yen.

Analysis: There was modest liquidation by the large spec, but he still remains an 8 to 1 long in the franc. The small spec, a large players in this market, did reduce his long and increase his short for a net swing from the long side by 3181 contracts, but still remains a 2 to 1 long. Commercials are short almost 75% of the OI.

Analysis: The OI increased about 8% as the large spec increased both his long and his short, and is now a 3 to 1 long. The small spec is a large player in this market and is about a 2 to 1 long. This leaves the commercial almost a 3 to 1 short. All groups modestly increased positions in the period.

Analysis: There was a modest increase in the OI as specs continued to buy and the commercial sold. Fifteen large specs are now long 72.4% of the OI while 12 commercials are short 80.5%. Small specs remain a 2.5 to 1 long.

Analysis: Large specs were active during the period, increasing both their longs and their short, and the remain a 4.5 to 1 long. Small specs increased their long and they decreased shorts during the period. Commercials remain the big short. The market broke after the end of the period so there was probably some liquidation.

Published on  Mon, Nov 23 2009, 07:22 GMT