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Consolidating in a 'triangle/pennant' formation at the lower edge of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:40 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Still consolidating under the increasingly important $1.4200 level but giving up very little room. Bullish momentum should increase slightly if we can hold above $1.3900 this week. Only a weekly close above $1.4200 will really get things going and another big round of short-covering."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The potential 'head-and-shoulders' within which prices have been working since March is still there as prices consolidate below the lower edge of the relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above the 'neckline' and 26-week moving average. Maybe this week, certainly sometime in July, we favor a test of the pivotal 94.00 yen area (and an eventual break below here)."

EURO/YEN: "Stuck between a rock and a hard place as we hold above trend-line support, and at the lower edge of a massive Ichimoku 'cloud' Expect a test of its lower edge this week."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Consolidating in a 'triangle/pennant' formation at the lower edge of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'. If not this week then sometime in July we favor a break higher. A weekly close above $1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June."

COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "We stick with the topping scenario, with a second test and subsequent rejection of the $1.4115/1.4200 retracement/resistance zone (61.8/76.4 percent of the $1.4340-1.3750 decline) last Friday regarded as the precursor to a decisive move lower through the $1.3740 (initial $1.3890) support; initial objectives $1.3610, then $1.3475/40. Intraday resisted at $1.4050/80."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "The interday outlook remains positive above 1.5230/10 francs, with an extension of the rally through 1.5380 bringing the 1.5445 March 2009 high directly into focus."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Price is currently probing the base of its converging 95.10-98.00 yen interweek trading range; a failure of which would target the bigger 94.00 support (intermonth range lows intact since March 2009). On balance, we look for a recovery towards the 98.00 range highs, with intermediate resistances located at 96.55 and 97.20."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "The recent recovery off the 1.0630 franc intermonth range lows has encountered resistance on the 1.1030 level (38.2 percent of the April-June 2009 decline). That said, the interday outlook will remain constructive whilst local support at 1.0795 (initial 1.0840) underpins, with an extension of the retracement rally through 1.1030 targeting 1.1165, 1.1305 then 1.1470."

EURO/STERLING: "Near term consolidation beneath 85.90 pence keeps the pressure on the recent 84.00 low (intermediate supports 84.90/70), which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a 81.90 extension of the intermonth downtrend."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bias remains for a downside resolution of the local $1.6240-1.6590 range, with subsequent losses through 1.6115/1.5995 targeting the 1.5800 early June 2009 reaction low (weekly close barrier to a deeper 1.5530 sell-off). Conversely, a breach of the 1.6590 range high would expose the 1.6660 level, which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a 1.6810/1.7050 extension of the intermonth uptrend."

EURO/YEN: "Price has backed away from the pivotal 134.85 yen resistance, with risk now seen for another test of the 131.40/131.05 support zone (weekly close barrier to a deeper 129.65/128.80 sell-off)."

Published on  Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:41 GMT