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Bank Recomendations

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Karen Jones, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, Technical Research Limited

Wed, Oct 24 2007, 12:20 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

KAREN JONES, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: The market recovered following its recent key day reversal. The move back above the $1.4245 interim resistance has neutralized the immediate chart. However we remain concerned for the overall up move the market appears to be developing a `wedge pattern', the top of which is located at $1.4357. These are potential reversal patterns and this suggests that the market will struggle to overcome this resistance to leave key support exposed ($1.4115 Fibo, $1.4088 uptrend and $1.4013 the recent low)."

USD/JPY: "The near term rebound is viewed as corrective only and we look for the rally to remain capped by 115.95/116.15 yen. USD/JPY's outlook remains negative. Last week the market failed at 117.85/95, broke below its short term uptrend and its 25 day moving average and completed a bearish wedge pattern. The market is finding interim resistance at 115.05 (Fibo). Near term rallies are expected to remain capped by 115.60/116.15, while below here the market will remain directly offered."

USD/CHF: "There was no follow through on the topside following the recent key day reversal on the topside. While recent price action has alleviated immediate downside pressure we doubt whether the rebound will be enough to overcome the strong resistance offered by the 5 month down channel at 1.1955 francs. While capped here, we will maintain a neutral to bearish bias. Intraday, the market stays bid above 1.1715/1.1690 and we would allow for a retest of 1.1800 then 1.1890/1.1955, however would expect to see failure here. Below 1.1690, upside pressure quickly dissipates for a slide back to 1.1600.

GBP/USD: "The chart has become increasingly volatile and yesterday the market retraced most of the previous day’s losses. Key support is the channel at $2.0144, and ahead of here we have the recent low at $2.0243 and the 55 day ma and Fibonacci support at $2.0212/00. Overhead resistance lies initially at $2.0567 ahead of the $2.0655 July high. We note the loss of momentum indicated by the diverging RSI and caution is warranted."

TECHNICAL RESEARCH LIMITED

EUR/USD: "Euro's recovered to my mid $1.4200's target and rally now nearing exhaustion. Resistance at $1.4280/4300/4325/4300/25 contains, for reaction to low $1.4200s."

USD/JPY: "Dollar's recovery is growing tired and risks exhaustion about 115.25/15.75 yen max. Resistance 115.00/115.25/115.60. A sell-off back toward the 113.25 level.

GBP/USD: "Sterling's exceeded my mid $2.0400's target and resistance at $2.0550/2.0600 probably. Resistance $2.0515/$2.0550/$2.0600 yields reaction back toward low/mid $2.0400's."

Published on  Wed, Oct 24 2007, 12:24 GMT