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Bank Recomendations

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Near−term positive above $1.6266, focus remains on renewed gains

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:45 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

EURO/DOLLAR: "Constructive $1.3833 big support, focus on $1.4304 - trigger for $1.4338 trend high."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Momentum is showing signs of improvement with key resistance at 96.99 yen. Developing recovery intact above 94.02."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Near-term positive above $1.6266, focus remains on renewed gains beyond $1.6586 to open $1.6743 trend high."

U.S. DOLLAR/CANADA DOLLAR: "Pressure building on C$1.0750 - trigger for C$1.0547 key support. Intra-day heavy below C$1.0934."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "Recent steep recovery targets 1.5381 franc high. Initial support at 1.5262 ahead of 1.5198."

EURO/STERLING: "Relapse below 85.14 pence exposes 84.01 bear trigger. Key resistance at 86.99."

EURO/YEN: "Broader trend remains constructive above 132.10 yen support. Focus on 136.10 - trigger for 136.89 key resistance."

COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "EUR/USD is bouncing from its 55-day MA at $1.4018 currently. Our neutral to negative bias remains following the recent failure at range highs at $1.4300/65. Rebounds are expected to now be resisted intraday at $1.4120/95 and we look for losses to extend to the base of the channel at $1.3921. This will act as the break down point to $1.3740/65. If we are correct and the market tops here as we expect longer term then we would expect to see a slide back to the base of the long term range at approx $1.26/$1.25."

DOLLAR/YEN: "USD/JPY has eroded its 200-day MA and Fibo resistance and this leaves the market well placed for further gains towards the 96.60/72 yen key resistance. This is the location of Fibonacci resistance, downtrend and 100-day MA -- all of which implies that this will hold the topside and provoke failure. A break below the minor support line at 94.39/00 should be enough to alleviate immediate upside pressure and signal losses to 93.00/10. This remains the short term break down point to the 91.77/73 recent lows."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "GBP/USD is again challenging the Fibonacci retracement resistance at $1.6585 (78.6 percent retracement), we look for this to hold and while below here our negative bias remains. Intraday dips will find minor support at $1.6265/75 (55-day MA). Failure here casts the market back into the lower half of its recent range targeting $1.6117, $1.5965, $1.5800 (range lows and a four-month uptrend)."

EURO/YEN: "EUR/JPY's outlook remains negative following the recent failure ahead of the key 136.65/90 yen resistance (Fibo and June high). Interim resistance lies at 135.45/65. We are looking for failure and a slide to nearby supports at 132.60/10 then 131.50/00. This is regarded as the break down point to 127.12/00 (200-day MA and recent low). Only above 136.90 (not favoured) will negate our view and introduce scope for the 139.25 the recent high and then 141.00/60 (long-term Fibo)."

Published on  Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:45 GMT

We cannot rule out a return to 93.55/93.85 yen, or at most to the 94.65/90 resistance area

Mon, Jul 13 2009, 12:49 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

SOCIETE GENERALE

EURO/DOLLAR: "EUR/USD may rise to the long-term declining resistance line, which comes at $1.4140 today, before pointing back to $1.3735/50 or even to the tentative rising support line, which comes at $1.3620 this week. It would take a break below this trend-line to consider that EUR/USD is on its way back to the April low of $1.2885."

DOLLAR/YEN: "We cannot rule out a return to 93.55/93.85 yen, or at most to the 94.65/90 resistance area, before USD/JPY heads south again. Once last Wednesday's low of 91.80 is broken, 89.70 and 88.60 should be the main steps on the way to the January low of 87.15."

EURO/STERLING: "EUR/GBP retraced most of the setback started at 86.73 pence last week. That said, we continue to think that the upside potential is limited. The upper end of the Short-term rising channel, which comes at 86.84 today, should cap the upside and force EUR/GBP to head south again."

EURO/YEN: "We expect the 131.45/95 yen region to contain any other upward attempt and force EUR/JPY to head south again. Once 127.00 is broken, the late April low of 124.40 should be the main step on the way to the 121.75/122.45 region."

UBS

EURO/DOLLAR: "Bullish. Choppy price action remains constructive above $1.3749 key support with initial support at $1.3833. Nearby resistance is at $1.4201."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Bearish. Near term heavy below 94.89 yen, targets 91.79 then 90.52 (76.4 percent retracement)."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bullish. Focus is on $1.5985 near-term while the pair remains constructive above $1.5803. Nearby resistance at $1.6380 ahead of key resistance at 1.6743."

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Neutral. Relapse below $0.7790 and the following bounce has held below $0.8038, thereby keeping the tone neutral. Support at $0.7630."

U.S. DOLLAR/CANADA DOLLAR: "Neutral. Price action is sideways while the pair is stalled ahead of C$1.1815 stiff resistance. Key support is at C$1.1415."

EURO/STERLING: "Bearish. Despite today's bounce, our focus remains lower towards 85.14 pence ahead of 84.39 - downside trigger for 84.01 trend low. Vulnerable below 88.67."

EURO/YEN: "Bearish. Immediately heavy below 132.13 yen, eyes 126.98 key support.

Published on  Mon, Jul 13 2009, 12:49 GMT

Looking for direction while trading above an increasingly large, upward−sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'

Tue, Jul 7 2009, 08:40 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Endlessly dreary as we consolidate randomly in a relatively narrow range below the increasingly important $1.4200 level. Until we get a weekly close above here we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Consolidating neatly below the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the moving averages, above trendline support. Hopefully sometime this week we will see a re-test of recent lows at 95.00 yen and then the increasingly important 94.00 area."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Looking for direction while trading above an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'. A weekly close clearly above $1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum, hopefully with a whole host of currencies pulling in the same direction."

EURO/YEN: "Testing trendline support above a thin Ichimoku 'cloud' but below moving averages. We expect an imminent drop where a weekly close below 132.00 yen would add considerably to downside pressure, potentially setting off a very sharp move lower over the next two weeks."

Published on  Tue, Jul 7 2009, 08:40 GMT

The up−thrust top should within a few sessions start to deliver further downside pressure

Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:46 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Downside risk still high. The up-thrust top should within a few sessions start to deliver further downside pressure, especially so as there also is a visible bearish divergence in momentum indicators. Passing $1.6380 will be the trigger for the exit of the top formation."

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR/U.S. DOLLAR: "Red flag alert. The failure above the rising wedge created a dark cloud cover candle. The market has thereafter continued sliding in a rather constructive wave count (hourly chart) which together with the extreme long positioning among non-commercials. All in all the setup impose a clear theat to the kiwi dollar."

EURO/SWEDISH CROWN: "The market yesterday continued pushing the pair lower but without the following bounce that we've been looking for. The violation, albeit with 10 pips only, of the 10.6870 crown key support makes us adopt a neutral stance. A short term topside reaction is nevertheless needed."

Published on  Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:46 GMT

Consolidating in a 'triangle/pennant' formation at the lower edge of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:40 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Still consolidating under the increasingly important $1.4200 level but giving up very little room. Bullish momentum should increase slightly if we can hold above $1.3900 this week. Only a weekly close above $1.4200 will really get things going and another big round of short-covering."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The potential 'head-and-shoulders' within which prices have been working since March is still there as prices consolidate below the lower edge of the relatively large Ichimoku 'cloud' and above the 'neckline' and 26-week moving average. Maybe this week, certainly sometime in July, we favor a test of the pivotal 94.00 yen area (and an eventual break below here)."

EURO/YEN: "Stuck between a rock and a hard place as we hold above trend-line support, and at the lower edge of a massive Ichimoku 'cloud' Expect a test of its lower edge this week."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Consolidating in a 'triangle/pennant' formation at the lower edge of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'. If not this week then sometime in July we favor a break higher. A weekly close above $1.6600 is needed to take bullish momentum back up to the very strong levels of early June."

COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "We stick with the topping scenario, with a second test and subsequent rejection of the $1.4115/1.4200 retracement/resistance zone (61.8/76.4 percent of the $1.4340-1.3750 decline) last Friday regarded as the precursor to a decisive move lower through the $1.3740 (initial $1.3890) support; initial objectives $1.3610, then $1.3475/40. Intraday resisted at $1.4050/80."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "The interday outlook remains positive above 1.5230/10 francs, with an extension of the rally through 1.5380 bringing the 1.5445 March 2009 high directly into focus."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Price is currently probing the base of its converging 95.10-98.00 yen interweek trading range; a failure of which would target the bigger 94.00 support (intermonth range lows intact since March 2009). On balance, we look for a recovery towards the 98.00 range highs, with intermediate resistances located at 96.55 and 97.20."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "The recent recovery off the 1.0630 franc intermonth range lows has encountered resistance on the 1.1030 level (38.2 percent of the April-June 2009 decline). That said, the interday outlook will remain constructive whilst local support at 1.0795 (initial 1.0840) underpins, with an extension of the retracement rally through 1.1030 targeting 1.1165, 1.1305 then 1.1470."

EURO/STERLING: "Near term consolidation beneath 85.90 pence keeps the pressure on the recent 84.00 low (intermediate supports 84.90/70), which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a 81.90 extension of the intermonth downtrend."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bias remains for a downside resolution of the local $1.6240-1.6590 range, with subsequent losses through 1.6115/1.5995 targeting the 1.5800 early June 2009 reaction low (weekly close barrier to a deeper 1.5530 sell-off). Conversely, a breach of the 1.6590 range high would expose the 1.6660 level, which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a 1.6810/1.7050 extension of the intermonth uptrend."

EURO/YEN: "Price has backed away from the pivotal 134.85 yen resistance, with risk now seen for another test of the 131.40/131.05 support zone (weekly close barrier to a deeper 129.65/128.80 sell-off)."

Published on  Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:40 GMT

Neutral/negative outlook within the local $1.6190 − 1.6575 range extremes

Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:31 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

CBCM

EURO/DOLLAR: "The interday risk shifts back to the downside, with a failure of the $1.3890/80 support expected to confirm the correction high at $1.4012 and target $1.3850/1.3810 en route to the bigger $1.3725 support. Resistance at $1.3935 (max. $1.3990) should now cap, with a weekly close below $1.3725 opening the way for a deeper $1.3610/1.3440 decline."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Neutral/negative outlook within the local $1.6190 - 1.6575 range extremes (intermediate supports $1.6425/1.6285); a downside resolution of which is expected to provoke losses towards the $1.5800 early June reaction low/fibo. A weekly close above the recent $1.6660 high would negate the range trading scenario and reinstate upside momentum; objectives $1.6810/1.7050."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Resistance at 97.20 yen maintains the negative near term bias within the converging 95.80 - 98.30 interweek range extremes. A failure of the 95.80/50 support would target the more significant 94.00 level (intermonth range lows intact since March 2009)."

EURO/STERLING: "The downtrend remains intact, with losses through the recent 84.20 pence low targeting 83.40/82.35 en route to the bigger 81.90 level (76.4 percent of the Oct - Dec 09 advance). Resisted at 84.95 (initial 84.50)."

EURO/YEN: "Rejection of the pivotal 135.30 yen level shifts the focus back onto the recent 132.35 low, with 131.65 the bigger level targeted thereafter. A subsequent weekly close below 131.65 would provoke a deeper 128.80 decline. Intraday resisted at 134.35."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "Last week's relatively vigorous recovery off the 1.5015 franc support encourages us to stick with the range trading scenario. Supported at 1.5055/45 from an intraday perspective, with 1.5150/80 targeted en route to the 1.5230 range highs."

SOCIETE GENERALE

EURO/DOLLAR: "is likely to break below $1.3735/50, but it would take a break below the lower end of the tentative rising channel, which comes at $1.3425 this week, to confirm that it is on its way back to the April low of $1.2885."

EURO/YEN: "Given the setback initiated at 135.20 yen last Friday, we think the corrective recovery from 132.35 is probably over. That said, it would take a break below the MT rising support line, which comes at 131.60 today, to confirm EUR/JPY is on its way to 121.75/122.45."

DOLLAR/YEN: "After testing the 97.10 yen pullback level, USD/JPY has turned lower and retraced most of the corrective up-move from 95.50. USD/JPY should break below 95.50 shortly and eye the intermediate downside target of 93.55/85 (mid-March and May lows)."

EURO/STERLING: "A break below last week's low of 84.22 pence - currently tested - is needed to confirm the resumption of the MT downtrend."

DOLLAR/CANADA DOLLAR: "The recovery from C$1.1235 is fragile. USD/CAD may dip back to C$1.1235, or even to the tentative support line coming at C$1.1125 today, before returning to C$1.1475/1.1520 or even to C$1.1750/60."

Published on  Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:31 GMT

Neutral/negative outlook within the $1.5800−$1.6590 interweek range extremes

Thu, Jun 18 2009, 12:55 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "Yesterday's sell-off found support just ahead of the$1.3740 March 2009 highs. The subsequent bounce is regarded ascorrective in nature and looks to have already run its course; toppingovernight at $1.3980. We now look for price to resume its interweekdowntrend, with intraday losses through $1.3920/$1.3850 expected tofuel another test of the $1.3750/40 support. Below $1.3740 targets$1.3610, $1.3440 then $1.3390."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The interday outlook remains negative below 97.10 yen,with losses through 95.75 (interweek range low and fibonacci) targeting95.05 en route to the 94.00 intermonth range lows."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Support at 1.0765 francs maintains the bid nearterm tone within the converging 1.0690-1.0945 interweek range extremes.We anticipate an upside resolution of the aforementioned range, withsubsequent gains through the 1.0985/1.1030 resistance zone targeting1.1165 then 1.1305."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Neutral/negative outlook within the $1.5800-$1.6590interweek range extremes, with price expected to soften towards theintermediate $1.6210, $1.6115 then $1.5995 levels. A weekly close abovethe recent $1.6660 high would reinstate upside momentum and fuel a$1.6810/$1.7050 extension of the uptrend (not favoured)."

SOCIETE GENERALE

EURO/DOLLAR: "The recovery from the $1.3735/95 support area isprobably corrective. Monday's high of $1.4035 should cap the upsideuntil EUR/USD breaks below$ 1.3735/50. This would turn the short-termoutlook more bearish and call for a decline to the tentative supportline, which comes at $1.3375 today."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The stabilisation above the 95.80 yen Fibonacciretracement probably aims to consolidate the down-move initiated at98.60 on Monday. The 97.10 pullback level should cap the upside untilUSD/JPY resumes its decline towards 93.55/85."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF is probably consolidating last week'sup-move before rising again towards the 1.0980/1.1030 francs zone. The1.0690 support area should limit the downside."

EURO/STERLING: "The recovery from 84.20 pence is corrective. The85.75/86.10 resistance zone should cap the upside until EUR/GBP extendsits medium-term downtrend to the 81.70/82.10 region."

EURO/YEN: "The recovery initiated at 132.25 yen yesterday is probablycorrective. The 135.70 pullback level should cap the upside until EUR/JPY breaks below 132.25 and tests the medium-term rising supportline which comes at 131.20 today."

Published on  Thu, Jun 18 2009, 12:55 GMT

A reversal seems to be taking shape, especially in U.S. Treasuries

Tue, Jun 16 2009, 06:13 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

NOMURA

BUNDS: "On the topside, a sustained break and close above 118.69 would be the minimum requirement to instil some momentum... A reversion back through 118.10 on the other hand would raise further question marks and if the low at 117.47 were to go as well, the potential for further downside would be significant."

COMMERZBANK

US TREASURIES: "A reversal seems to be taking shape, especially in U.S. Treasuries. If the yield of ten-year notes returned to 3.74 percent, further progress would be made in this regard. Whilst today's U.S. data may not be conducive to this happening, they should not critically jeopardise the recovery. However, the recovery would probably be postponed if the yield of ten-year Treasuries climbed above 3.87 percent again. The 3.80 percent mark should be an obstacle ahead of this level."

Published on  Tue, Jun 16 2009, 06:13 GMT

Bullish. The break (below) $1.4051 exposes the $1.3793 May 28 low

Tue, Jun 9 2009, 10:55 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

DOLLAR/YEN: "Bullish. The abrupt rise breaks 97.24 yen and 98.82 yen, now targets 99.74 yen. Intra-day positive above 96.52 yen."

EURO/DOLLAR: "Bullish. The break (below) $1.4051 exposes the $1.3793 May 28 low - a break here necessary to threaten the bull run. Key resistance at the $1.4338 June 3 high."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bullish. The corrective setback from $1.6662 builds pressure on $1.5855 ahead of $1.5757."

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR: "Bullish. Pressure building on $0.7892/30 range ahead of $0.7742 while broader bull trend prevails above $0.7451 key support. Resistance at $0.8123 ahead of $0.8263."

BNP PARIBAS

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Seen meeting support towards $1.5880 (50 pct retracement), with $1.6080 as a pullback level. Following a pause, further downside movement is expected later on below $1.5880, the next target is at $1.5515). The daily indicators are approaching their zero level. The hourly ones are supportive."

EURO/STERLING: "Seen consolidating the sharp bullish reversal, between 87.30 and 88.00 pence, before a new attempt on the upside, in direction of 88.70 pence (below 87.30 pence, the next key support is at 86.95 pence)."

EURO/DOLLAR: "The euro falling below $1.4070 is approaching the support line of the bullish channel of the past few weeks (and also the 20-day moving average), at $1.3900. A consolidation of the reversal sign is expected for now. Main resistance is at $1.4070. With main support at $1.3900. A bearish break of that latter level would argue for a return towards $1.3750. The daily indicators are within their neutral area, approaching their zero level. The hourly ones are supportive."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Above 97.25 yen is meeting resistance as it approaches resistance line at 99.00 yen. The currency pair is reversing the bearish bias seen in May. However, the bullish point is at 99.70 yen, with the main point at 101.45 yen. A consolidation of Friday's rebound is expected at first; with 97.85 yen as a first corrective point. The pullback level is at 97.25 yen. The daily indicators are supportive. The hourly ones are negative."

Published on  Tue, Jun 9 2009, 10:55 GMT

The 9−day moving average at $1.6221 might limit the downside this morning

Thu, Jun 4 2009, 13:08 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Reversing Tuesday's gains, doing wonders for the overbought situation. Two-way price action should help to push implied volatility higher. Expect consolidation under yesterday's high at $1.4339 today and maybe Friday too."

EURO/YEN: "Blipping to new a high for this year at 138.02 yen, above April's at 137.42, and forming a poor version of a 'bearish engulfing' candle yesterday. This suggests Yen crosses will hold below yesterday's highs today and tomorrow, maybe even throughout the month of June. In other words, still very difficult trying to establish where the daily ranges will be."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Obviously prices cannot hold inside the current range forever, and we continue to feel that the Ichimoku 'cloud' should eventually force it lower. Expect even more of the same today as the Yen looks for direction."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Stopping exactly at the bottom edge of the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud' and should hold below here today and tomorrow, maybe next week too. However, the 9-day moving average at $1.6221 might limit the downside this morning."

Published on  Thu, Jun 4 2009, 13:08 GMT

Bearish. Negative below 88.69 pence, focus remains 86.38 Feb. 10 low

Tue, Jun 2 2009, 10:16 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Bullish. Successful assault on the $1.6085 and $1.6198 calls for further gains likely towards $1.6464. Immediate support at $1.5918 ahead of $1.5855."

EURO/DOLLAR: "Bullish. Rise through $1.4058 high reinstates bullish theme, exposes $1.4221. Near term positive above $1.3791/28 with intra-day support at $1.3926."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Neutral. Failure to sustain 96.70+ yen gains keeps the underlying tone neutral with key support at 93.86. Initial resistance at 97.24."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Bearish. Downside pressure broke 1.0811 franc and 1.0707, pressures 1.0611 - trigger for 1.5041. Near term heavy below 1.0954."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "Neutral. Setback from 1.5234 franc high neutralizes bullish theme, with focus shifting to near term key support at 1.5008."

EURO/STERLING: "Bearish. Negative below 88.69 pence, focus remains 86.38 Feb. 10 low."

EURO/YEN: "Bullish. Near term positive above 131.49 yen, focus is on renewed gains beyond 135.70 to yield an assault on 137.41 key resistance."

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Pushing up against important resistance at $1.4200 after one of the biggest monthly moves on record. A break above here should set off a wave of short-covering taking the euro up to $1.4600 and probably $1.4800 within a matter of days. The Euro is overbought but bullish momentum is at a record high."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Dropping sharply from the middle of a very large Ichimoku 'cloud' and should now hold below the 26-day moving average at 96.83 yen. This should set up for a re-test of fairly pivotal support between 94.00 and 94.50 amid what is expected to be generalised, and possibly extreme, US dollar weakness."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "One of the biggest ever monthly rallies as Cable retraces 38 percent of last year's decline. It also adds weight to our view that U.S. dollar strength late last year was due to recapitalisation of core businesses around the globe as cheap money disappeared. Chart levels between $1.6000 and $1.7000 are myriad but not very clear so expect messy work and another potentially stellar monthly rally in an atmosphere of chronic U.S. dollar weakness."

EURO/YEN: "Redrawing the large 'triangle' following Friday's 'doji'. The cross should hold below 135.50 yen today and possibly all week but note that this in not the predominant trend. In fact Yen crosses are expected to move broadly sideways for most of this year, picking intermediate turns a thankless and difficult task."

Published on  Tue, Jun 2 2009, 10:16 GMT

There is no gap in the data as the euro retraces 38 percent of the most recent advance

Fri, May 29 2009, 11:35 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

DOLLAR/YEN: "Getting a lot more difficult and messy as we rally strongly from fairly pivotal support roughly between 94.00 and 94.50 yen into a very large Ichimoku 'cloud' with moving averages suggesting a short. Hopefully the rally will stall around the 26-day average at 96.83."

EURO/YEN: "Edging to a new recent high as we consolidate above a very large Ichimoku 'cloud' in what we now see as a large 'triangle'. We now favour a slow sideways move over the next week or two, here and in a whole range of other yen crosses."

EURO/DOLLAR: "There is no gap in the data as the euro retraces 38 percent of the most recent advance. We expect it to stabilise today and then re-test recent highs next week."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "From most reviled to favourite son in the space of six months as many re-think and cut sterling positions. Yesterday's 'spike high' after the 'spike low/doji' candles the two previous days underline the fact this market is looking for direction. Cable is overbought but bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since December 2006, there is little point messing around."

SEB

DOLLAR INDEX: "80.98. More bullish development. After having met the ideal correction target (wave C equals A) the market has started to produce the bullish signs we were looking for. We would like to see the market take out the mid body point of last weeks candle, 81.45, as soon as possible to add further topside confidence."

EURO/DOLLAR: "$1.3800. Short lived buyers."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "$1.5906. Up-thrust top ends the correction?"

DOLLAR/SWEDISH CROWN: "7.7300 crown. Bottom gaining confidence."

EURO/SWEDISH CROWN: "10.6750 crown. Eyeing the 10.80/82 key resistance."

EURO/NORWEGIAN CROWN: "8.9280 crown. More upside seen."

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR/U.S.DOLLAR: "$0.7780. A turn south in the making."

Published on  Fri, May 29 2009, 11:35 GMT

GBP/USD's upmove started to gain traction last week and we look for further gains this week

Wed, May 27 2009, 07:51 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

OMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "EUR/USD saw a strong rally higher last week that has managed to erode the 55-week moving average resistance at $1.3975.
The next two key resistance points on the topside are $1.4185 (multiple time horizon fibo) and then $1.4435. This latter level would represent an approximate return to point of break down, from its previous six-year channel and a resistance line connecting the September and December 2008 peaks. It represents the maximum upside that we expect to see prior to failure. The previous highs at $1.3740 maintain the interday bid tone.

DOLLAR/YEN: "Our attention is on the 93.55 yen/March low, this is now exposed. USD/JPY has started to erode the 50 percent retracement support at 94.30 and the short term outlook is dominated by the short term downchannel, which offers resistance today at 94.65. This is reinforced by the 100-DMA at 95.37. Interday risk remains on the downside, we target 93.55, 92.60 then 90.50."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF last week saw quite an acceleration on the downside and starts this week looking fragile. The market will shortly encounter a strong zone of support in the 1.0720/1.0675 franc region. This represents a double Fibonacci retracement and the one-year uptrend; we would expect to see some profit taking feature here and would cover short positions. The negative interday outlook will persist whilst resistance at 1.1060/90, 1.1115 caps the upside."

EURO/STERLING: "Attention this week will remain firmly on the 200-DMA and this year's low at 86.55/86.40 pence. These are now considered to be exposed. The outlook remains negative, with losses through the 86.40 (February 2009 low) targeting 85.00 (61.8 percent of the October-December 2008 rally). Resistance lies at 88.65 ahead of 89.10, this latter zone represents the 23.6 percent retracement of the March-May sell-off and the two-month resistance line, while capped here the market will remain directly offered."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "GBP/USD's upmove started to gain traction last week and we look for further gains this week. The interday outlook will remain directly positive above $1.5520/45, the 200-DMA. The move higher has driven in part by GBP demand on the crosses and this is likely to also be a feature this week with EUR/GBP still negative. Initial upside targets are $1.6120/1.6395 en route to the more significant $1.6425 level (38.2% of the November2007-January 2009 decline)."

EURO/YEN: "Following its bounce from its five-month uptrend, EUR/JPY spent most of last week consolidating sideways. We hold a negative near term bias within in the converging 128.00-133.55 yen interweek range extremes, with a failure of the local 131.85 support expected to trigger initial losses towards 130.90 then 129.80. The bigger support/target is located at 126.90, which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a deeper 122.95/121.75 decline."

SOCIETE GENERALE

EURO/DOLLAR: "EUR/USD may dip back to $1.3735, or even to the lower end of the short-term rising channel, which comes at $1.3620 today, before heading north again. EUR/USD has stabilised around the $1.4000 psychological resistance level, which coincides with the upper end of the short-term rising channel.
"We continue to think that a down-move is likely in the near future to consolidate the impressive bounce on $1.3425. In that case, we may see a move down to the $1.3735 pullback level, or at most to the lower channel line which comes at $1.3620 today, before EUR/USD heads north towards the $1.4165/85 region, or even the December 2008 high of $1.4360. EUR/USD should then attempt to reverse downwards."

DOLLAR/YEN: "96.70/80 yen should contain any extension of the recovery from 93.85 and force USD/JPY to head south again. After breaching the lower end of the short-term declining channel, USD/JPY has turned higher and retraced part of the recent sell-off.
"This up-move may not be over yet and we may see a return to the 96.70/80 resistance area in the next few days before USD/JPY points back to the mid-March low of 93.55. The expected break below this low would argue in favour of an extension of the decline initiated at 101.45 in early April to the January low of 87.15. The 92.40/60 region should be the first major support on the way."

EURO/YEN: "Last week's high of 134.85 yen should cap the upside and force EUR/JPY to point back to the late April low of 124.40. EUR/JPY has broken above the 131.85/132.40 resistance area, but we continue to think that the recovery from 127.00 is corrective.
"We expect last week's high of 134.85 to contain any additional rise and force EUR/JPY to head south again. A break below last week's low of 127.00 should call for a down-move to the late April low of 124.40, or even to the 121.75/80 region -- mid-term Fibonacci retracement and early March low)".

Published on  Wed, May 27 2009, 07:51 GMT

Many are looking on in disbelief, especially considering the political situation

Thu, May 21 2009, 10:27 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

MIZUHO

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Many are looking on in disbelief, especially considering the political situation. UK Plc can run itself despite what outgoing CBI chief Martin Broughton described as the 'economic vandalism' instigated by UK PM Gordon Brown. "Having met our first upside target and channel resistance around $1.5800 allow for some consolidation so that other currencies can catch up."

EURO/DOLLAR: "Even the brain dead will have to start waking up to reality following the euro's close above important resistance around $1.3700. A weekly close above here would add to current strong bullish momentum. Note that above here there are no really strong resistance levels until the $1.4200 area."

DOLLAR/YEN: "One of the lowest close’s since February, adding weight to our view that we have formed an important interim high. Thin markets today through to Tuesday could see moves gather considerable pace, possibly gapping, to levels not seen since October/November (not JPY though). A weekly close below 94.25 yen should add considerable downside pressure."

EURO/YEN: "A 'doji' candle yesterday at the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' which also coincides with the 61 percent Fibonacci retracement of the most recent decline signals that the market is trying to top. Bearish pressure would increase marginally were we to hold below 131.00 yen today."

J.P.MORGAN

EURO/DOLLAR: "Support at $1.3585 - $1.3420 - $1.3120. Resistance at $1.3850 - $1.4060 - $1.4365."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Support at 94.55 yen - 93.55 - 92.60. Resistance at 96.70 - 99.80 - 101.45."

DOLLAR/CANADA DOLLAR: "Support at C$1.1307 - C$1.1088 - C$1.0820. Resistance at C$1.1585 - C$1.1815 - C$1.1980."

EURO/STERLING: Support at 87.64 pence - 87.28 - 86.38. Resistance at 89.15 - 90.83 - 92.40."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Support at $1.5350 - $1.5135 - $1.4890. Resistance at $1.5720 - $1.5900 - $1.6045."

Published on  Thu, May 21 2009, 10:27 GMT

Retreating from the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud' and the 26−week moving average

Tue, May 19 2009, 08:00 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB

EURO/DOLLAR: "The market failed to uphold gains made during the whippy week and closed on an offered note. The one-month and 200-day average coincides well with the upper end of the 3-month high/low/closing EMA grid in the $1.3370/1.3415-area which works as support likely to be tested."

DOLLAR/YEN: "A near-term bullish 'head & shoulders' formation is completed, setting the price objective to just above 84.00 yen -- which if passed would put the May 5/7 highs at 84.60 in harm's way. Key near-term support at 82.30 should shore up any losses to maintain near-term upside bias."

EURO/YEN: "Four days out of five saw sellers scoring lower closes than opens and five days of five lower session lows -- concluded with a bearish engulfing line as a continuation pattern. It's now fair to assume the wide 124.35/126.00 yen area will see action soon, without excluding a 100 percent extension towards 121.75. Initial resistance at 128.30/50. Trailing stops on shorts likely at/above 131.25."

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "Retreating from the weekly Ichimoku 'cloud' and the 26-week moving average. Expect the euro to re-group this week for another re-test of increasingly important resistance around $1.3700."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Lowest weekly close since late February and now flirting around the 50 percent Fibonacci support area. It will probably try, not very successfully, to hold between here and the March low at 93.55 yen this week. Then down again."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Buy at $1.5150; stop well below $1.5000. Add to longs on a sustained break above $1.5375 for $1.5500 short term and then $1.5725/1.5800."

EURO/YEN: "'Bearish engulfing' weekly candle against Fibonacci resistance, ahead of a very large Ichimoku 'cloud'. This adds weight to our view that over the next few weeks there is a good chance that Yen crosses will drop, keeping them within the very broad band that has held since October. This pair should retreat to the 126.00 yen area, maybe more.

Published on  Tue, May 19 2009, 08:00 GMT

Euro/dollar upside intact for now

Tue, May 12 2009, 12:28 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

EURO/DOLLAR: "Setback from $1.3668 corrective while $1.3343 holds, keeping our focus on $1.3736 mid-March high."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Heavy sell-off breaks below 97.94 yen and 97.15 yen, opens 96.39 yen -- trigger for 95.63 yen bear trigger. Intra-day upside capped at 98.82 yen."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Constructive above $1.4944, with focus on renewed gains beyond $1.5261 to open $1.5374 January high."

DRESDNER KLEINWORT/COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "The interday outlook remains directly constructive above $1.3550, with gains through the recent $1.3670 high targeting the $1.3740/$1.4040 levels (March 09 high and the 55 week moving average). A failure of the $1.3550 support would provoke slippage towards $1.3470/35, then the more significant $1.3375 weekly support."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "The outlook is negative; with near term consolidation beneath the significant 1.1170 francs resistance (50 percent of the Dec 08 -- March 09 advance) paving the way for an extension of the downtrend through the recent 1.1020 franc low; targeting 1.0980/1.0750 francs. Suggest an opening 1.1020-1.1110 francs range today."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "The outlook is positive; with last week’s close above the $1.5065 April 09 highs targeting $1.5310 then $1.5720. Supported at $1.5070/35 (max. $1.4945).”

Published on  Tue, May 12 2009, 12:28 GMT

Support at 132.85 yen underpins from an interday perspective

Mon, Apr 6 2009, 13:12 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

CBCM

DOLLAR/YEN: "Focus remains on the 99.70 yen early March 09 high (intraday high at 100.15), which remains the weekly close barrier to a 100.55/101.65 extension of the intermonth uptrend. Support 98.70 (initial 99.45/10) underpins price from an interday perspective."

EURO/DOLLAR: "Yesterday's recovery through the $1.3345 resistance forces us to revert to a neutral near term stance within the $1.3115-$1.3740 interweek range extremes. That said, we will retain our underlyingly negative interweek bias whilst the intermediate $1.3520/$1.3590 resistance zone caps, with a subsequent move lower through $1.3115/00 regarded as the weekly close trigger for a move towards the $1.2950/1.2760 retracement zone (61.8/76.4 percent of the $1.2460-1.3740 advance)."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "We will retain our constructive bias whilst support at 1.1310/1.1285 franc underpins, with an extension of the retracement rally through 1.1550/70 (initial intraday resistance 1.1465) targeting the 1.1665/1.1780 retracement levels (61.8/76.4% of the 1.1967-1.1166 decline)."

EURO/STERLING: "The outlook is negative, with price poised to generate a weekly close beneath the 91.45 pence support (confirming the major correction high at 94.80) and extend its sell-off towards the 90.60, 89.60 then 88.35 levels. Resistance at 91.75 should now cap any corrective intraday rallies. The 86.40 February 2009 low is targeted from an interweek perspective."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "The interday rally has propelled price back up to the strong $1.4730/80 resistance zone (interweek range high and $1.4780 late March 09), which is regarded as the weekly close barrier to a $1.4975 then $1.5310 move. A failure of the local $1.4620 support would shift the near term outlook to a neutral stance within the converging $1.4250-1.4780 interweek range."

EURO/YEN: "Support at 132.85 yen underpins from an interday perspective, with a sustained breach (weekly close) of the 134.55 March 09 high (note also the close proximity of the 134.20 long term retracement level, i.e. 38.2 percent of the July 08-Jan 09 decline) opening the way for a 138.15/141.00 extension of the intermonth uptrend."

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "The interday risk shifts back to the topside, with yesterday's recovery through the 1.5200 franc channel top (now supporting) confirming the correction low at 1.5065 and targeting 1.5300/1.5355 en route to the 1.5440 March 09 high."

Published on  Mon, Apr 6 2009, 13:12 GMT

BARCLAYS CAPITAL EURO/DOLLAR: "Range trading below the 21−day average at $1.2785

Wed, Mar 4 2009, 09:35 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

BARCLAYS CAPITAL

EURO/DOLLAR: "Range trading below the 21-day average at $1.2785 continues. Sentiment shows the market is positioned for EUR weakness (DSI only 9 pct bullish) and the rebound yesterday from above the February low ($1.2515) suggests another day or so of ranging. However, consolidation below $1.2750/95 will not squeeze out any short positions and given event risk this week we suspect the market will continue to fixate on the range low at $1.2515. Only following a close above $1.2800 is material short covering likely to begin."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The short-term trend for USD/JPY is up and we regard the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. While allowing for a pullback to 96.35 yen, or even to the breakout level, we would continue to target 102 and higher later in the month. Intraday, the scene is set for a test of resistance at 98.90."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "USD/CHF has rebounded off the same Fibo retracement level on daily and intraday charts and this fracticality across time horizons is keeping alive our faith in the Key Day Reversal of last week. Consolidation below 1.1885 francs implies downside risk and in the coming 48 hours a break of support at 1.1615 is needed to signal that the recent bullish squeeze is over and trigger a further slide to 1.1295."

EURO/STERLING: "The 2009 trend is for marginal GBP strength, albeit in a very choppy fashion. Near-term risks are for range trading in a slowly contracting 87.85-90.60 pence range. In the bigger picture, while capped below 90.60 we would allow for a return to 85.55 in the coming weeks."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "The whipsaw of the last 24 hours was not what we were expecting and this morning we are obliged to reassess.
However, while the depth of the decline considerably exceeded our view, the general backdrop is unchanged. In the bigger picture this type of price action remains consistent with the potential unfolding inverse head and shoulders pattern and at this stage we could not rule out another two to four weeks of erratic chop. Key today will be whether the pound can recover above $1.4180; if it can then the breakout yesterday below $1.4095 was false and shorts will be squeezed and the pound rally back to $1.44."

CBCM

EURO/DOLLAR: "The offered interday tone will persist whilst resistance at $1.2720 caps, with risk seen for a failure of the $1.2535/15 support; objectives $1.2330/1.2135 target zone (Oct 08 low and 50% of the 2000-2008 advance). A recovery through $1.2720 would suggest another run at the topside of the converging $1.2535-1.2880 interweek range."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The interweek uptrend has paused for a breather, just beneath the intermediate 98.90 yen retracement target (50 percent of the Aug-Dec 08 decline). Near term consolidation within a 96.90-98.70 range (intermediate levels 97.75/98.15) is now expected to prime price for a resumption of the uptrend, with subsequent gains through 98.90 targeting 101.65/105.10."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "We will retain our mildly negative interday bias whilst resistance at $1.4325 (initial $1.4210) limits the topside, with a failure of the recent $1.3960 low expected to provoke slippage towards the $1.3850 retracement level (76.4 percent of the $1.3500-$1.4975 rally). Below $1.3850 would expose the $1.3500 Jan 09 low."

EURO/YEN: "The outlook remains constructive, with near term consolidation within a 121.80-126.10 yen range (intermediate levels 123.05/124.70) regarded as the precursor to a run at the projected 129.60 intermonth range highs (intermediate resistance 126.55). That said, we are conscious of the fact that the interweek uptrend has stalled within the 123.80/126.55 retracement zone, with a failure of the 120.30 weekly support negating the constructive view and regarded as the trigger for an 119.05/117.40 sell-off."

Published on  Wed, Mar 4 2009, 09:35 GMT

EURO/YEN: Vulnerable below 120.01 yen with downside trigger at 114.91 yen ahead of 113.15 yen

Tue, Feb 17 2009, 09:28 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

EURO/DOLLAR: "Sharp recovery eases the pressure on $1.2706 but the pair remains vulnerable below $1.3094."

DOLLAR/YEN: "The upward move neutralises the bearish tone with focus on 92.42/92 yen resistance range following the break of 91.67 yen. Near-term support at 89.71 yen."

EURO/YEN: "Vulnerable below 120.01 yen with downside trigger at 114.91 yen ahead of 113.15 yen."

EURO/STERLING: "Sharp pullback moves below support at 88.60 pence, now targets 86.39 pence. Remains vulnerable below 90.72 pence."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Move above $1.4565 encouraging but $1.4986+ move required to threaten the broader bearish tone. Near-term support at $1.4137."

MIZUHO

EURO/DOLLAR: "A tiny gap lower today as the euro holds inside a downward-sloping 'wedge' formation, disappointing as we fall below $1.2800. Watch for more cautious attempts at forming an interim base this week, possibly with a rather scary 'spike low'."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Dropping back from the moving averages and should try again this week to form an interim low, hopefully around retracement support but maybe we shall have to live through a nasty 'spike low'... Short term target $1.4400, then $1.4600."

EURO/YEN "Lack of momentum means prices are creeping randomly sideways across the page. Expect more of the same today and maybe all week ... Attempt small longs at 116.75 yen; stop below 114.00 yen. First target 118.00 yen, then 120.00 yen".

Published on  Tue, Feb 17 2009, 09:28 GMT

TECHNICALS−Euro eyes $1.2706 − UBS

Thu, Feb 5 2009, 11:02 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

EUR/USD: "EURUSD eyes $1.2706. Vulnerable beneath $1.3071, with focus on $1.2707."

USD/JPY: "While 91.30 yen holds, our focus remains on support at 87.99 yen ahead of the 87.13 trend low. Initial resistance at 90.75."

USD/CHF: "Pivotal 1.1315 franc support holds, keeping bullish pattern alive - targeting 1.1685 and 1.1715."

EUR/GBP: "Bearish near-term below 90.84 pence, targeting 87.88."

GBP/USD: "Constructive near-term above $1.4052, with our focus on $1.4660, the 61.8 percent retracement."

EUR/JPY: "Heavy near-term below 117.02 yen, with focus on 113.15 then 112.10."

EUR/CHF: "Immediate heavy tone dominates below 1.4993 franc, with loss of 1.4811 likely to expose 1.4734 then 1.4653."

Published on  Thu, Feb 5 2009, 11:02 GMT

Euro/sterling correction underway− SEB

Fri, Jan 2 2009, 10:02 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB

• EURO/DOLLAR: "The rejection of the 61.8 percent Fibo point on Dec 30 has now been followed by a violation of $1.3902, adding a lot of confidence of further downside pressure. The $1.3450/75 area now stands as the next ideal stronger support and has a high probability of being tested shortly."

• EURO/STERLING: "As the pair reached the next target, 98.10 pence, on Dec 29 the risk turned for a downside reaction. The warned-of correction has now begun, breaking below its shorter support line, underpinned by a bearish divergence in stochastic. The first firmer support is located around 92.80 pence. Above 96.80 pence the reaction will be over and done".

• EURO/YEN: "Even though the pair has fallen back from the upper end of the flag, it hasn't fallen below the 123.73 yen support, the point which if/when taken out calls for a test and break of the lower boundary. So until such a break takes place there is still a possibility that we will see one more and final high".

UBS

EURO/DOLLAR: "Sharp setback from $1.4719 pressuring cluster of support between $1.3824, Dec 19 low and $1.3806, the 38.2 percent retrace $1.2329-1.4719. Break of latter would expose $1.3629".

DOLLAR/YEN: "Recovery from 89.53 yen returns focus to 91.98 yen, although this needs to give way to relieve pressure on 89.53 yen and 88.43 yen".

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Recovery from $1.4351 encouraging, but move beyond $1.4827 and ideally $1.5193 necessary to alleviate the broader bear threat."

Published on  Fri, Jan 2 2009, 10:02 GMT

EURO/DOLLAR: "We retain a bull bias in EUR/USD 23/12/2008

Mon, Dec 29 2008, 07:44 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

JPMORGAN

EURO/DOLLAR: "We retain a bull bias in EUR/USD, viewing this price action under $1.47 as a fourth wave while our trend indicators hold, which provide support at $1.3870 today".

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Resistance in USD/CHF today runs from 1.1025-1.1115 chf."

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Any sudden lurch down to between $1.45 and $1.40 we believe is a good risk/reward buying opportunity".

SEB

EURO/DOLLAR: "No strong directional’s ahead of the opening today and an open mind still looks best. Below $1.3900 is thought to pressure support at $1.3800 +/-20 pips, while above $1.4125 would point at $1.4180".

DOLLAR/YEN: "Yesterday's close was printed high enough to pressure falling resistance. An upper range extension this morning would add near-term bullish leads, suggesting further advance to test the Dec 12 high of 91.60 yen. But the move higher has been slow and corrective, so if back below 89.50 yen, the Dec 19 b-wave low of 88.40 yen would become exposed".

STERLING/DOLLAR: "The uptick yesterday morning was cut short and a new low was scored again, thus upholding pressure on the Dec low of $1.4465. Above $1.5000 is needed to become less near-term bearish on the pair. Over $1.5185 it could be concluded that the move this week and last was a steep correction and a more short-term bullish stance may be adopted".

Published on  Mon, Dec 29 2008, 07:44 GMT

Eyes euro/dlr target of $1.3950

Tue, Dec 16 2008, 10:39 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

TRL INDEX

EUR/USD: "The euro's again rallied nicely and looking for advance to extend onto $1.3770 enroute to $1.3900/1.3950 target before exhaustion."

USD/JPY: "Dollar has reacted as anticipated and still opportunity for a deeper reaction toward the mid 89.00's (yen) -- before recovery resumes."

GBP/USD: "Sterling's rallied nicely and looking for rally to extend toward resistance around $1.5485, $1.5585/5650 max before exhaustion."

USD/CHF: "The dollar's sold off to my 1.1580 franc target and looking for sell-off to extend toward the 1.1500 level enroute to 1.1430 target."

CBCM

EUR/USD: "The euro has continued to accelerate higher and has reached and exceeded our near term target of $1.3670 -- this is the measurement higher from the symmetrical triangle. The market has rallied to its next resistance at $1.3750, the 38.2 percent retracement of the move down from July. We would allow some near-term consolidation but look for dips lower to be contained by $1.3460/30. The market looks set to extend higher -- treating the pattern as a base below $1.3080 offers an additional upside measured target to $1.3830."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY has recently spiked down into 13-year lows. This price action looks exhaustive however the market has not managed to regain 91.70/92.00 yen and as a consequence looks set to retest a key chart juncture at 88.35, 87.30. This represents a multitude of downside targets, which includes the base of a 2-year downchannel. "The market needs to sustain a break above 92.00 in order to alleviate immediate downside pressure to retarget the 93.52/20 day moving average then downtrend resistance at 95.56."

USD/CHF: "The USD/CHF yesterday eroded its 55 day moving average and sold off towards its 5 month support line at 1.1529 francs. The top pattern offers a downside measured target to 1.1510 and this co-incides well with uptrend and we would allow for this to hold the initial test. The daily RSI has broken lower and adds weight to idea that the market is likely to remain under pressure however."

GBP/USD: "The market's recent break into 5 year lows was not confirmed by the short, medium and long term Relative Strength Indicators and currently the market is correcting higher. The market has already eroded $1.5260, the September low and we look for gains to extend to $1.5510, the November high and then $1.5810/85, the 23.6 percent retracement of the move down from the July peak and 55 day moving average. The market should find intraday support at $1.5125, $1.5030."

Published on  Tue, Dec 16 2008, 10:39 GMT

Trade Orders 2.12.2008..

Tue, Dec 2 2008, 11:31 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

[EUR/USD]
Sell interest is tipped at 1.2680, with further supply touted ahead of 1.2700. Buy stops reportedly reside above 1.2700. RH

[EUR/GBP]
Offers are touted at 0.8520 (0.8528 was yesterday"s six-day high). RH

[EUR/CHF]
US banks are buying at 1.5190/1.5200. RP

Some [USD/JPY] stops tripped on early Asia break below 93.00. Bids return however ahead of 92.80. Firmer here and around 93.00 after bounce later. Offering interest ahead of 94.00. Stops above and below 92.80, 92.40. (hi)

[EUR/JPY]
bidding interest ahead of 117.25, stops sub-117.20 and large sub-117.00 and 116.40. Offering interest around 118.50, some stops above 118.60 and larger above 119.00. (hi)

[EUR/USD]
stops sub-1.2575, above 1.2650. (hi)

[GBP/USD]
stops eyed sub-1.4800. Offering interest around 1.4940, stops above 1.4950. (hi)

[AUD/JPY]
stops sub-59.20 tripped early. Talk large Asian sovereign name selling a number of JPY crosses. AUD/JPY up later on short- covering. (hi)

[AUD/USD]
bounces from early lows on [AUD/JPY] buy backs, better data and upbeat RBA. Stops still sub-0.6330 and 0.6300. Bids around 0.6380 absorbed on early wave down. (hi)

Nearby option expirations today include vanilla [USD/JPY] 87.00 (massive), 94.50, 97.00 (massive), 98.15, [EUR/USD] 1.2400, 1.2520,

[AUD/USD] 0.6645 and [USD/CAD] 1.2900 strikes. (hi)

[EUR/GBP]
Well offered above 0.8500; buy stops above 0.8565. JK

[GBP/USD]
Bids seen supporting on dips into the 1.4700"s; offers in the 1.5100-1.5200 area. There are some decent sell-stops below 1.4700. JK

[USD/CAD]
An Asian CB was reportedly on the offer ahead of 1.2500 (ahead of 14:00GMT).

[EUR/GBP]
Sell interest is tipped at 0.8480/90 (0.8484 was last Wednesday"s high).

[USD/CAD]
Offers are touted at 1.2480.

Published on  Tue, Dec 2 2008, 11:31 GMT

TECHNICALS−Euro/dlr support at $1.2565/1.2544 –KBC

Thu, Nov 20 2008, 08:25 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR/USD: "Drop from $1.3294 could not sustain below $1.2527 and toying with channel top off $1.4867. Support area at $1.2565/1.2544, with next levels at $1.2512/1.2503: tough on first attempts. "If wrong, next levels at $1.2448 and $1.2396/1.2388."

USD/JPY: "Pair retested daily break-up area of 94.48 yen and failed to extend below channel off 110.67. First resistance area at 97.31/97.40, with next levels at 97.55, where pause favored. "If wrong, next levels at 98.25, ahead of 98.68/98.85: tough on 1st attempts."

EUR/GBP: "Exploded to new high, with drop having met 23.6 percent retracement of the rise from 76.94 pence. First support area at 84.26, with next levels at 83.57/83.42, where pause favored."

Published on  Thu, Nov 20 2008, 08:25 GMT

EUR/USD: The Euro has started to break down from its contracting range

Tue, Nov 11 2008, 13:22 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR/USD: "The Euro has started to break down from its contracting range - limits $1.2725-1.2935, with $1.2725 being eroded a retest of $1.2580 looks likely - this remains the break down point to the $1.2330 low then $1.2135, a long term Fibonacci retracement. The market will stay directly offered while capped by $1.2935. Only above here negates and will retarget $1.3117/35 then $1.3300, the 38.2 percent retracement of the move down from September (not favoured)."

USD/JPY: "Neutral to positive while above the 96.80/35 yen support. We have drawn a resistance line, connecting the highs ovr the past 4 weeks - this is located at 99.73 yen currently - the market is stalling here very near term and will need to clear this in order to reassert upside pressure towards 100.55/75 yen, the recent high and the 50 percent retracement. "We currently maintain our view that the market will extend short term gains to 103.50/75 yen and fail here (the daily RSI remains positive). However we are unable to dismiss the idea that the failure at Fibonacci resistance at 100.75 yen recently (50 percent retracement of move down from August) may be an interim high. Below 96.35 yen will leave the market increasingly on the defensive triggering a slide back to 94.55 yen."

GBP/USD: "Remains under pressure. The near term chart is dominated by its 3 week downtrend, this is located at $1.5832. While capped here, further probes down to the $1.5560/35 level look likely - we saw a minor breach of this level last week and this guards the more important $1.5250/1.5125 band. This is major support - it represents the long term Fibo retracement (the 78.6 percent retracement of the entire move from $1.3680) and a 24 support line. Only a recovery above $1.5835 will alleviate immediate downside pressure for scope for recovery to $1.6430/1.6670 to become feasible."

EUR/JPY: "Range trading short term within the 122.35-131.05 yen range limits. It is struggling at present to maintain a break above its 20 day moving average at 127.32 yen, however at the end of last week the market tested and held above the 122.35 yen support and for now while above this support our stance is neutral to positive. We look for recovery to 130/131.05 yen, where we would again allow for failure."

SEB

USD/JPY: "Yesterday's failure doesn't really change anything, the potential inverse head and shoulders seen in many yen crosses are still in place, but still lacks their confirmation. Below 95.65 yen the case will however start to diminish. Moving above 99.48 yen will be an early warning of a forthcoming break”.

Published on  Tue, Nov 11 2008, 13:22 GMT

Bank Recomendations

Thu, Oct 30 2008, 08:30 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

1.2850 remains intact for the moment, with 1.2847 touted as the latest highs. However, spot has pulled back into the high- 1.27s as a quick bout of macro selling impacts.

[09:12 GMT October 29] [EUR/USD]
Eastern European flows have been seen on both sides but official sellers ahead of the 1.28s are now attempting to keep a lid on the rally.
Should EUR/USD manage to break back into the 1.28s then the 1.2840/50 sell-zone will come back into view, while on the downside dips into the high-1.26s are still said to offer value.

[08:18 GMT October 29] [GBP/USD]
has elicited support ahead of 1.5960 after tumbling from an early Europe five-day high of 1.6220. Buy stops above 1.5960 were tripped early in today"s Asian session.

[08:16 GMT October 29] [EUR/GBP]
Sell interest might emerge around 0.7958 (yesterday"s late European morning low).

[08:01 GMT October 29] [EUR/CHF]
Dropped back to 1.4600 as USD/CHF dips to 1.1435 into the European return.

[08:01 GMT October 29] [EUR/USD]
Dips into the 1.26s seen offering value. Liquidity remains a concern with some even suggesting a massive 1.26/28 band could be the latest comfort-zone.

[05:14 GMT Oct 29th] [USD/JPY]
charges higher early with stops above 99.00 and 99.50 taken out early on way to the 99.70 level. Sell-off ensues with Japanese exporters, toshin and intra-day players good sellers. Talk of more toshin redemptions tomorrow. Standing offers still ahead of 100.00. Talk of large option expiries in the 97.00-98.00 window also seen behind some of the sales with a large Japanese investment bank selling on account of these. (hi)

[05:11 GMT Oct 29th] [EUR/JPY]
, other JPY crosses trade lower after early surge. Japanese exporters toshin and intra-day players among sellers into strength. (hi)

[05:09 GMT Oct 29th] [EUR/USD]
stops tripped on early surge through 1.2560, 1.2685, 1.2700 and then 1.2800. Some buying interest noted on return to the 1.2700 area later. (hi)

Published on  Thu, Oct 30 2008, 08:30 GMT

Bank−Recommendations

Thu, Oct 9 2008, 12:34 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

STANDARD CHARTERED

EUR/USD: "Spot has bounced on technical signals that EUR/USD is oversold. Some stochastic and RSI technical signals are oversold and the series of higher intra-day lows may hint at more upside for spot (we forecast $1.46 for EUR-USD at year-end)"

USD/JPY: "Spot continues to trade heavy on fragile risk appetite and as Japanese investors are taking money home. Technical indicators remain bearish and we may see a test of the key psychological support level of 100.00 yen over the coming days."

GBP/USD: "Spot is consolidating ahead of yesterday's low at 1.7319. Whilst the chart pattern is tentative, a doublebottom may be developing with corrective upside potential to $1.7835 (last week's intra-day high). The UK economic data remains bleak and threatens any sustained rebound"

UBS

EUR/USD: "Heavy near-term below $1.3773 - pressure mounts on $1.3444 trend low".

USD/JPY: "Bearish below 103.29 yen, targeting 98.56 yen but with scope for 95.76 trend low from March".

GBP/USD: "Loss of $1.7447 exposes $1.7319 ahead of pivotal $1.7049 reaction low from December 2005. Intraday resistance at $1.7658 ahead of $1.7839".

Published on  Thu, Oct 9 2008, 12:34 GMT

Banking Recommendation Technical's

Thu, Sep 25 2008, 12:24 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

KAREN JONES, CBCM

EUR/USD: "The euro spent yesterday consolidating its gains. Near term potential remains for this move to extend to its interim target area of $1.4910/1.5000, which is likely to provoke some profit taking (50 percent retracement of the move down from $1.6040 plus the 55 week moving average). Meanwhile near term dips lower will ideally be contained by $1.4635/1.4490. Failure here would imply immediate upside pressure was waning and the market likely to retest $1.4367/1.4240."

USD/JPY: "We regard recent strength as a 'return to point of break out' from its previous 6 month uptrend (see chart). This has now reverted to resistance and is located at 108.40 yen. This resistance is reinforced by its 4 week resistance line at 107.63. Price action is regarded as negative and we look for failure shortly. Slightly longer term we continue to label 110.66/the August 2008 high as an interim top as the market indicates to break 102.55 and exposed psychological support at 100.00 for new lows below 95.71/the March 2008 low."

STANDARD CHARTERED

EUR/USD: "EUR-USD looks consolidative for the time being ahead of $1.4960 and even more critical resistance at $1.5210. Technical’s suggest renewed weakness to $1.3880/50 and then $1.3060/55 over the next three months."

UBS

EUR/USD: "Trend remains bullish; bull trigger at $1.4866 - a move beyond this would expose $1.4908/60. Downside risk limited to $1.4580."

GBP/USD: "Near term trend remains up, scope for fresh gains beyond $1.8640 to open $1.8794. Support at $1.8472, with broader recovery intact above $1.8265."

USD/CHF: "Abrupt setback from 1.1055 francs casts heavy tone to the pair -- only 1.1055+ price action would relieve downward pressure on 1.0691 -- break here would open 1.0550."

EUR/JPY: "Break of 156.84 is required to trigger extended gains towards 157.70. Key support 153.82 -- intraday support 154.48."

Published on  Thu, Sep 25 2008, 12:24 GMT

New high on break above 80.98 pence and in channel off 77.95 pence

Thu, Sep 4 2008, 08:09 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

KBC BANKING AND INSURANCE

EURO/STERLING: "New high on break above 80.98 pence and in channel off 77.95 pence, with Double Bottom off 80.22 pence."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Strong rebound off 103.77 yen has met first target Double Bottom off 107.75, with drop from 110.67 having retested the neckline of the pattern."

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "Dipping to a new recent low at $1.4556, just below retracement support, working in an unstable downward-sloping 'wedge' formation. One-month at-the-money implied volatility is on its way up again and the euro is very oversold. We continue to watch warily for signs of basing this week, the deeper we drop initially, the sharper the reversal later on."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Hovering on retracement support and yesterday's close at 108.07 yen is probably just enough to complete a small 'head-and-shoulders' top. Over the coming week we expect a drop to 106.50 with yen crosses moving steadily lower too.

EURO/YEN: "Dropping like a stone towards March's low. The euro is very oversold and bearish momentum very strong. Yen crosses should push each other lower and lower, like dominoes. One-month at-the-money implied volatility should move higher, probably sharply so on a break below 154.00. For this morning expect cautious consolidation above 157.00 with rallies to 160.00 seen as selling opportunities for further big declines this month."

Published on  Thu, Sep 4 2008, 08:09 GMT

Bullish euro/dollar and still believe this range process will give way to new highs through $1.60

Mon, Apr 14 2008, 12:36 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

JPMORGAN

EURO/DOLLAR: "We are still bullish euro/dollar and still believe this range process will give way to new highs through $1.60, but we will again be better buyers at lower levels in the $1.55-1.54 region."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "A horrible range and one that again after yesterday's price action warns that we could still see that C wave spike up towards 1.0350/1.04 francs before setting new lows through 0.9500. We wait and watch."

DOLLAR/STERLING: "We are still in a falling wedge type pattern. We can therefore see cable back down towards $1.96/1.9550 but expect it to be limited to around there within the core USD bear trend."

COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EURO/DOLLAR: "The nine-day moving average still looks to ideally support the market and maximum the 27-day moving average ahead of $1.5904/1.5912, breaking sustainably to initially challenge psychological resistance at $1.6000."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Today we look for the market to close below 101.28/101.41 yen to confirm the longer-term downtrend is resuming to initially challenge the previous 98.54 March 27, 2008, low (near term) en route ultimately to retesting 95.71 March 20, 2008, the low for the year so far."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "The 0.9642 franc March 17 low is now considered to be exposed shorter term to lead to further down trend losses towards initially psychological support at 0.9500. Slightly longer term we now view 0.9642 March 17 low will trend break and lead to further losses to 0.9500 and ultimately our longer term target of 0.8872 in H1 2008."

EURO/STERLING: We now observe the $1.9666/2.0227 contracting trendline range parameters highlighted as a more elongated choppy/topping range indicates to unfold, a range within range dominates today with the bias to once again correct/test the upside for which to formate an inner range top and fail again."

Published on  Mon, Apr 14 2008, 12:36 GMT

TECHNICALS−Pound resistance at $1.9740 ahead of $2

Mon, Feb 25 2008, 10:28 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

GOLDMAN SACHS

GBP/USD: "Resistance at $1.9740; above $1.9960 is needed to confirm a double bottom reversal and target $2.06."

RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

NZD/USD: "The cyclical highs (24 July 2007) at US$0.8110 represent near term resistance. Downside, support comes in at US$0.8050/60."

SEB

EUR/USD: "With the last week ending at $1.4841 the prior weekly high was exceeded by 20 pips. With a short term base in the $1.4785/95 area we expect continued pressure towards the upper boundary ($1.4893)."

EUR/JPY: "Like several sessions last week, the market tried lower on Friday but was almost immediately returned into the resistance zone. The behaviour points to a still persisting upward pressure and a visit to 161.40 still lurks."

LLOYDS TSB CORPORATES & MARKETS

GBP/USD: "Range bound for now. Long-term bias is dollar bearish, but expects the range to stay for now. $1.9560 buy zone."

GBP/JPY: "Range bound, but caught in the lower end of the range. Risk developing for a break towards 205.00 yen."

Published on  Mon, Feb 25 2008, 10:28 GMT

Karen Jones, Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, Technical Research Limited

Wed, Oct 24 2007, 12:20 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

KAREN JONES, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: The market recovered following its recent key day reversal. The move back above the $1.4245 interim resistance has neutralized the immediate chart. However we remain concerned for the overall up move the market appears to be developing a `wedge pattern', the top of which is located at $1.4357. These are potential reversal patterns and this suggests that the market will struggle to overcome this resistance to leave key support exposed ($1.4115 Fibo, $1.4088 uptrend and $1.4013 the recent low)."

USD/JPY: "The near term rebound is viewed as corrective only and we look for the rally to remain capped by 115.95/116.15 yen. USD/JPY's outlook remains negative. Last week the market failed at 117.85/95, broke below its short term uptrend and its 25 day moving average and completed a bearish wedge pattern. The market is finding interim resistance at 115.05 (Fibo). Near term rallies are expected to remain capped by 115.60/116.15, while below here the market will remain directly offered."

USD/CHF: "There was no follow through on the topside following the recent key day reversal on the topside. While recent price action has alleviated immediate downside pressure we doubt whether the rebound will be enough to overcome the strong resistance offered by the 5 month down channel at 1.1955 francs. While capped here, we will maintain a neutral to bearish bias. Intraday, the market stays bid above 1.1715/1.1690 and we would allow for a retest of 1.1800 then 1.1890/1.1955, however would expect to see failure here. Below 1.1690, upside pressure quickly dissipates for a slide back to 1.1600.

GBP/USD: "The chart has become increasingly volatile and yesterday the market retraced most of the previous day’s losses. Key support is the channel at $2.0144, and ahead of here we have the recent low at $2.0243 and the 55 day ma and Fibonacci support at $2.0212/00. Overhead resistance lies initially at $2.0567 ahead of the $2.0655 July high. We note the loss of momentum indicated by the diverging RSI and caution is warranted."

TECHNICAL RESEARCH LIMITED

EUR/USD: "Euro's recovered to my mid $1.4200's target and rally now nearing exhaustion. Resistance at $1.4280/4300/4325/4300/25 contains, for reaction to low $1.4200s."

USD/JPY: "Dollar's recovery is growing tired and risks exhaustion about 115.25/15.75 yen max. Resistance 115.00/115.25/115.60. A sell-off back toward the 113.25 level.

GBP/USD: "Sterling's exceeded my mid $2.0400's target and resistance at $2.0550/2.0600 probably. Resistance $2.0515/$2.0550/$2.0600 yields reaction back toward low/mid $2.0400's."

Published on  Wed, Oct 24 2007, 12:20 GMT

UBS Tecnical Strategy ;BNP Paribas Tecnical Strategy

Tue, Oct 23 2007, 10:01 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS TECHNICAL STRATEGY:

EUR/USD - "Bullish. The loss of $1.4144 exposes $1.4094 ahead of $1.4115. Resistance at $1.4350."

USD/JPY - "Bearish. Sharp recovery from 113.26 yen but the outlook is heavy below 115.72 yen."

GBP/USD - "Neutral. Pair remains entrenched in the $2.0247-$2.0574 range."

USD/CHF - "Bearish. Has abrupt rebound from 1.1603 francs but is vulnerable beneath 1.1801 francs."

EUR/USD - "Bearish. Bounces from 160.48 yen but a break of 163.75 is necessary to offset the bear threat."

BNP PARIBAS TECHNICAL STRATEGY:

EUR/USD - "Outlook positive. Capped below $1.4350, has done a downside correction to find support at $1.4125. The currency pair is doing a pullback towards a short term support line. The main level on the upside is at $1.4245. The daily indicators are neutral, slightly above. Yesterday's downside move has to be confirmed, after position adjustments. The currency pair is seen between $1.4145 and $1.4245, testing resistance. A rise above $1.4245 would argue for a return towards $1.4300 (yesterday's bearish break level). Below $1.4125, the next main level is at $1.4065 (trend line)."

EUR/JPY- "Outlook negative. Pair has done a 38.2% correction of the rise of the past few weeks; quickly rebounding (the 50% is at 158.520). A rebound above 162.85 yen would argue for an upward correction, towards 163.70 or even 164.25 yen (hourly resistance line). The daily indicators are turning downside. The hourly indicators are positive. The pair is seen between 162.25 and 163.70 yen, or even 164.25, as a key resistance, before further downside pressure, with a return towards 160.50 yen."

USD/JPY - "Outlook negative. After a dip at 113.25 yen pair is doing a corrective rebound, with resistance at 114.85, before the main level at 115.30 yen. Below the latter, a new downside leg is expected later on in direction of 112.60 yen. The daily indicators are moving downside. The hourly ones are neutral. The currency pair is seen consolidating last week's fall, between 114.30 and 114.85 yen. A rebound above the latter would argue for a return towards 115.30 yen, seen as a key resistance (hourly resistance line)."

Published on  Tue, Oct 23 2007, 10:01 GMT

Robin Wilkin, JP Morgan; Steven Wesik, ABN AMRO Private Banking; Karen Jones, Cmmerzbank Corporates & Markets

Fri, Oct 19 2007, 10:56 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

ROBIN WILKIN, JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "Our main theme of USD weakness and gold strenth continues to play out and we still target a move to and through $1.4530 in the euro/dollar."

NZD/USD: "Our other core medium term theme is for NZD under performance and we look for AUD/NZD and EUR/NZD to build on the breakouts we witnessed earlier in the week. We look for a move in AUD/NZD back to and through NZ$1.22 and NZ$1.24 while EUR/NZD we are hoping to see back to and through NZ$2.00/2.10."

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO PRIVATE BANKING

EUR/USD: "The bulls pushed price up to a new all-time high and have subsequently established new intra-day support at $1.4279. Holding above that base keeps the upswing totally intact and prices on their way to the $1.4500 handle. If the $1.4279 support gives way, then the market could head down to $1.4146 before buyers decide to step in again."

USD/JPY: "Prices are in the throws of a correction lower and will likely be driven down to the 114.00 handle before any large rebound occurs. If that also fails, though, then the market will likely set its sight on the 111.62/34 support area. On the upside, the bulls need to clear at least 115.75 to start shaking off sellers. Clearing that should spur them on to take out the recently set 117.95 top."

GBP/USD: "Prices broke up and out of the trading range that had formed over the last few weeks. This break should be enough to propel them up to the $2.1096 handle before any top takes shape. New support has shored up at the $2.0418 handle and only breaking below it suggests that a correction phase lower is occurring. If that happens then levels could make it down to $2.0193."

KAREN JONES, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: "EUR/USD has broken to new 12 year highs. It is on course for the top of the 19 month channel at $1.4445. Dips will find minor support at $1.4240/30 ahead of 1.4150/30. Key support remains the $1.4043/13 recent low and uptrend. While above here an upside bias persists."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY has recently failed at 117.85/95 yen, charted a death crossover of its moving averages and has now broken below its short term uptrend. All these factors are negative and the market is now vulnerable to a slide to the 114.41 short term uptrend. Near term rallies are expected to remain capped by 116.60, while below here the market will remain directly offered."

USD/CHF: "USD/CHF has finally failed ahead of tough resistance at 1.1910/75 francs and sold off. The break below interim support at 1.1750 leaves the market under pressure to retest the 1.1611 recent low and the bottom of the 5 month channel at 1.1520. Near term rallies are expected to remain capped by 1.1775 and while below here the intraday outlook will remain directly offered."

GBP/USD: "GBP/USD has broken higher through the short term resistance line at 2.0450; it has also eroded the $2.0495/1st October high. This implies that it has resumed its bull move and targets the $2.0632/55 region (top of the 2 month channel and the July high). Dips will find interim support at $2.0400/2.0380 ahead of the 2.0255/40 region, which remains key."

EUR/JPY: "The market has recently eroded its medium term uptrend and its 20 day moving average this leaves the market increasingly negative near term. The RSI is turning lower; it does reflect a loss of upside momentum, and loss of the moving average support implies that the market is vulnerable to a stab lower towards the 161.04/160.65 region this is the location of the 55 and 200 day moving averages and the 38.2 percent retracement of the last leg higher. A slide to and recovery from this key support is expected."

Published on  Fri, Oct 19 2007, 10:56 GMT

Steven Wesiak, ABN AMRO private banking; Nicole Elliot , Mizuho Corporate Bank

Wed, Oct 17 2007, 10:28 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO PRIVATE BANKING

EUR/USD: "The upswing looks to be fizzling out and a new, lower top at $1.4245 is taking shape before the $1.4284 all-time-high. This inability to push price higher could lead to a larger correction lower. The hourly chart shows a double top at $1.4245 and failing to take it out should tempt players to eliminate the minor $1.4120 support and then start attacking that last significant low at $1.4017. On the upside, a push past $1.4235 indicates that a concerted effort to clear $1.4284 is underway. It would look vulnerable and breaking above it will send price up to the $1.4500 handle."

USD/JPY: "Prices slipped under support and could head down to the 114.0 yen handle before any large rebound occurs. If that were also to fail, though, then the market will likely set its sight on the 116.62/34 support area. On the upside, the first sign that the former bullish bias has been revived comes with a rally past a small peak at 115.65. Clearing it will put prices back on track to 120.78."

AUD/USD: "The bears are fighting back and are gunning for the $0.8770 support. If it snaps then a full fledged correction lower should follow with $0.8704, $0.8607 and as far as the $0.8487 level looking reachable. To avoid this, the market needs to make it above a small peak that popped up at $0.8915, which in turn should propel prices up towards the $0.9080 top."

NZD/USD: "The correction lower continues and level have room down to $0.7275. At that point buyers might be tempted to step back into the market. The first sign that the bulls are back comes with a pop up past the $0.7513 peak that was recently set. Clearing it will open the way back up to at least $0.7675 and as far as $0.7758."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "A market looking for direction as we hold neatly just under the record high at $1.4283. Expect more work below here today. Dips towards $1.4000 are seen as medium term buying opportunities for an eventual rally to new highs."

USD/JPY: "Our patience appears to be paying off with clearer signs of topping at the 118.00 yen area, 50 percent retracement and the top of the Ichimoku `cloud'. Expect consolidation above 115.80 this morning, maybe all day, but then we expect the U.S. dollar to slip suddenly to the bottom of the `cloud'."

GBP/USD: "Nasty intra-day moves as we continue to struggle below trendline resistance. For this morning again we expect prices to stabilise above $2.0300 and then rally later in the day."

EUR/JPY: "Small signs of stalling, if not topping, with a daily close below the nine-day moving average. Expect a slow drift to 164.00 yen with a sustained break below here likely to set off a sharp drop.

Published on  Wed, Oct 17 2007, 10:28 GMT

BNP Paribas

Mon, Oct 15 2007, 11:12 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "Seen between $1.4160 and 1.4240, testing resistance. A fall below $1.4160 would argue for a retreat towards $1.4125 (short term support line is at $1.4095). Remains in a tight range, in consolidation of last week rebound, holding above the 38.2 percent correction (50 percent is at $1.4125). The daily indicators are neutral, around zero (ROC is falling, while RSI is supportive). The hourly ones are neutral, slightly supportive. The currency pair, between $1.4160 and $1.4210, is seen testing resistance. A retreat below $1.4160 would argue for a downside correction, towards $1.4125."

USD/JPY: "Finding resistance, below 118.00 yen. A breach of 117.80 would signal a bullish break with the next target at 118.50, before 119.80 yen. Resistance is still expected. The daily indicators are still on the top of their neutral area, with a slight bullish bias. The hourly ones are signalling resistance. The currency pair is seen between 117.80 and 117.40 yen, before a return towards 116.80 yen, seen as a first bearish point."

USD/CHF: "Remains in a corrective configuration of the rise seen during the past few weeks, between 1.1895 and 1.1770 francs. The currency pair is seen between 1.1855 and 1.1790 france for now, as a tight range, on a wait-and-see position. The daily indicators are on their former high, within their neutral range. The hourly ones are neutral, signalling some resistance. The currency pair is seen between 1.1855 and 1.1790 francs. Above 1.1855, a rebound in direction of 1.1890 francs Mmight be expected."

GBP/USD: "Still remains poised within a tight range, below $2.0490, with support on the 38.2 percent retracement at $2.0260. The daily indicators are neutral, slowly turning on the downside. The hourly ones are supportive. The currency pair is evolving within a "flag" (hourly chart). The currency pair is seen between $2.0320 and $2.0490, as a neutral range, with $2.0260, as a key bearish break point (50 percent retracement is at $2.0195)."

Published on  Mon, Oct 15 2007, 11:12 GMT

Socite generale, UBS

Wed, Oct 10 2007, 11:47 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

SOCIETE GENERALE

EUR/USD: "Has turned lower after a short-lived bounce on $1.4035, thus suggesting that the downward consolidation, which started at $1.4280, is not over yet. However, we expect the $1.4000/15 support zone to force euro/dollar to turn higher again. $1.4155 and $1.4200/10 should be the main resistance areas on the way back to the $1.4280 high. Thereafter, euro/dollar should extend its long/term uptrend to the $1.4440/1.4535 zone with an intermediate resistance area at $1.4360."

USD/CAD: "The bounce on the lower end of the tentative declining channel, coming at C$0.9765 today, suggests that the consolidation of the down-leg, which started at C$1.0865/70 in mid-August, has begun. We should thus see a recovery up to the C$1.0200/35 zone or even to the C$1.0340/60 region. The main intermediate resistance areas stand at C$0.9910 and C$1.0095."

UBS

EUR/USD: "Bounce from $1.4015 encouraging, but only $1.4158-plus would offset short/term bear trend."

USD/JPY: "117.13 yen break exposes 117.88. Up-trend intact near-term above 116.28."

USD/CHF: "Vulnerable below 1.1923 francs, with focus on 1.1713."

EUR/CHF: "Targets 1.6726 francs. Broad up-trend dominant above 1.6592."

EUR/GBP: "Bear trend intact near-term below 69.59 pence, with the focus on 68.27."

GBP/USD: "Constructive above $2.0197 -- remains on track for $2.0495."

EUR/JPY: "Constructive above 163.59 yen, targeting 165.80 en route to 169.10."

Published on  Wed, Oct 10 2007, 11:47 GMT

Technical analysis team, Standard charterd,Karen Jones, technical analyst ,commerzbank

Tue, Oct 9 2007, 09:38 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, STANDARD CHARTERED:

GBP/USD - "GBP/USD is consolidating between $2.0200 and $2.0500. The MACD is pointing upwards. The RSI (relative strength indicator) is now in neutral, having escaped oversold territory on Sept. 28. Support at the 55-day MA (moving average), $2.0205, is coming into focus."

AUD/USD - "The AUD/USD RSI has moved into overbought territory since the break of the psychological US$0.9000 level. Stochastics are starting to turn down. The key resistance level now is US$0.9030. Further breaches higher will leave a target of the 1983 high of US$0.9653. Strong support is at the US$0.8850 level."

KAREN JONES, TECHNICAL ANALYST, COMMERZBANK:

EUR/USD - "EUR/USD remains under downside corrective pressure following its failure last week at $1.4280. It will remain under pressure while capped by $1.4155/60. The risk remains that we will see a slightly deeper pullback to $1.3925/40 (38.2 percent retracement of the last leg higher and uptrend) from where we would expect to see recovery. Near term rallies need to regain $1.4160 minimum to alleviate immediate downside corrective pressure and retarget the $1.4280 recent high."

USD/CHF - "USD/CHF rallied higher to leave our immediate outlook unchanged -- the market continues to hold near term upside corrective scope. The dollar has recently rebounded from the base of a 4-month downchannel, located currently at 1.1564 francs currently and on Friday saw a small breach of the 1.1840/38.2 percent retracement. As a consequence scope remains for a deeper retracement to 1.1925/36 (55-day moving average) and possibly even the top of the short term channel at 1.2016 currently. Interim support lies at 1.1775/35 and guards the base of the channel at 1.1570."

USD/JPY - "USD/JPY has continued to work higher and has met its initial upside target of 117.60/85 yen (100-week moving average and the 50 percent retracement of the move lower from the June peak). This is likely to provoke some profit-taking -- but provided dips hold over the 115.33 support line an upside bias will persist. Beyond 117.85 we would allow for an extension to 119.25/85 (200-day moving average) but would expect the up move to fail ahead of here. Minor interim support lies at 117.09."

Published on  Tue, Oct 9 2007, 09:38 GMT

TSB Corporate Markets, Trendsetter Financial Markets

Mon, Sep 24 2007, 13:24 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

No new report available today

TSB CORPORATE MARKETS

GBP/USD: "$2.0338 resistance line, but bias for $2.05 here. Support at $2.0230 should hold retracements."

GBP/CHF: "Targets at 2.35 francs hit here -- time for a rebound in sterling across the board. 2.3800 key resistance."

GBP/EUR: "Bias for a rebound back towards 1.4500 euros. Stops 1.4250."

TRENDSETTER FINANCIAL MARKETS

EUR/USD: "Although euro's breach of Friday's $1.4121 high signals that the uptrend has once again resumed, loss of upward momentum is expected to limit upside to $1.4140/50 and the risk has increased of a minor correction to take place before the prospect of another rise later."

USD/JPY: "Although dollar's retreat from 115.86 yen suggests the recovery from last week's low at 113.98 ended on Friday and further fall towards 114.60/70 cannot be ruled out, the outlook is consolidative and oversold conditions should keep the price well above said support."

USD/CHF: "Despite dollar's anticipated retreat from 1.772 francs, a breach of last week's low at 1.1679 is needed to confirm recent downtrend has resumed and extend weakness to 1.1650. However loss of momentum should prevent sharp move below 1.1620/25."

GBP/USD: "Friday's cross-inspired rally above $2.0174 suggests further choppy consolidating above last week's low at $1.9880 would continue and upside bias is seen for gain towards $2.0245 but overbought condition is expected to cap price below $2.0300/05 and yield sterling retreat.

Published on  Mon, Sep 24 2007, 13:24 GMT

Nicole Ellott ,Mizuho Corporate Bank , Research team, SEB

Tue, Sep 18 2007, 11:30 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

No new report available today

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD:"Consolidating in a small 'pennant' formation just under the record high of $1.3930. Allow for more a little more consolidation this morning and then on up again."

EUR/JPY: "The wait seems interminable. Likely to squeeze slowly higher as we consolidate in a small range above 159.00."

GBP/USD: "Hard hit here and against all other currencies. Probably best avoided at the moment. We shall be looking for signs of basing around $1.9700."

USD/JPY: "Stopped like a rabbit in the headlights. It will eventually bolt, but it is quite extraordinary that we have been at current levels for so long."

RESEARCH TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "The pair continues to consolidate the recent gains on top of the former resistance, $1.3850. As such we should expect the market to soon continue its buying, aiming next at the almost 18 month long ceiling line at $1.3985.

EUR/GBP: "The current impulsive advance, the wave three, should now be near an end. The ideal target for the wave is 69.80 pence a point where it has traveled 1.618 times wave one. Further north we find the 2006 high point at 70.20 pence."

AUD/USD: "Rejected from the US$0.8413/45 resistance. After having been challenging the resistance for several days the market made one final upside attempt and failed. The up-thrust top and key day reversal printed yesterday strongly suggests that the upside correction is over."

Crude Oil: Analysts on Tuesday predicted NYMEX crude prices will surge to $85 a barrel after breaking through key resistance levels and setting fresh record highs in each of the past five sessions.

U.S. crude prices earlier on Tuesday climbed to a fresh record high of $81.24. "With the uptrend resuming following a near-term hiatus, we project further upside towards $85-$88 in the sessions and weeks ahead," Barclays Capital said in its daily technical report. Walter Zimmermann of United Energy agreed, saying prices should rise to $85 after rising past the key $80.65 resistance level. "Our main count still sees clear sailing between $80.65 and the $85 mark," he said. Analysts attributed the rise to an influx of funds, saying there was little fundamental news behind the rally. "With the rally in crude oil bringing better year-to-date returns on the GSCI (Goldman Sachs Commodity Index) than on equities, fresh investment flows need to be found to keep the momentum to continued new highs," said Olivier Jakob of Petromatrix.

The front month October WTI contract expires on Thursday. And with the current backwardated market, the November contract will need to gain momentum to continue the upward trend. The spread between the two contracts is around $1.32. For Brent, the benchmark has yet to follow its U.S. counterpart to fresh highs. Brent has failed to break past the key $78 resistance level and technical charts show a double-top formation from mid-July. Brent's discount to WTI has widened to more than $2.50.

Published on  Tue, Sep 18 2007, 11:30 GMT

Euro Eyeing Fresh Highs Above $1.3855

Mon, Sep 10 2007, 13:27 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

No new report available today

GOLDMAN SACHS

EUR/USD: "The dollar has broken lower on its TWI measure and we would look for EUR/USD to break above the recent top at $1.3855; there is little resistance above until the $1.43 area".

USD/CHF: "Swiss franc should benefit from further weakness in equities. We would look for acceleration below 1432 in S&P to prompt longer term upside moves in CHF. A close below 1.1820 francs in USD/CHF would open up a move to the 1.13 area."

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Pushing up towards the all-time high at $1.3853 as the U.S. dollar slips against just about everything. Expect cautious upside probing today."

USD/JPY: "The lowest weekly close since June 2006 underlines general U.S. dollar weakness. Expect prices to try and hold between 112.00 and 114.50 yen this week. At-the-money implied volatility should remain high and possibly increase a bit further."

GBP/USD: "Pushing up into the Ichimoku `cloud'. Expect consolidation in here today."

EUR/JPY: "Clinging on a current levels in a holding pattern and looking for direction. Very inconclusive."

LLOYDS TSB CORPORATE MARKETS

GBP/USD: "Big stops activated over $2.0270 and whilst the follow through is less than expected, I would go with a short term positive view here with stops at $2.0130. Trend line support at $2.0135."

GBP/EUR: "Bias for $1.4650 as the euro pushes forwards against the dollar and this gets caught in the cross-fire. Short-term support at $1.4710 with resistance at $1.4750."

GBP/JPY: "Yen strength has materialised with the stock market weakness I was anticipating, hence this should ease down to long term targets at 220 yen over the coming weeks. Short-term support at 227.50 and resistance at 230.30."

Published on  Mon, Sep 10 2007, 13:27 GMT

BNP PARIBAS, TRL

Fri, Sep 7 2007, 09:54 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "After two attempts on the downside, (the pair) is finding resistance below $1.3720, seen as a bullish break point. The currency pair remains on a wait-and-see position. Main support is at $1.3630. The daily indicators remain neutral, slightly above zero. The hourly ones are signaling strong resistance."

EUR/GBP: "Holding above 67.38 pence, is again returning within its range seen during the past few weeks. The currency pair is seen between 67.61 and 67.87, before a rise towards 68.03."

GBP/USD: "Still seen testing resistance, with $2.0270 (seen) as a bullish break point (ascending resistance line). Support is at $2.0185. Above $2.0270, the next target is
at $2.0395. The very bearish reversal point is at $2.0040."

EUR/JPY: "Still struggling around its 20-day moving average, is holding above 156.55 yen. The first main resistance is at 158.70, with the bullish break point at 159.70. On the downside, the key bearish break point is at 156.55. The daily indicators remain contradictory, signalling resistance, while the MADC (moving average convergence divergence) is rising. The hourly indicators are signalling resistance."

TRL

EUR/USD: "The euro has rallied nicely and support is now about $1.3640 level for resumption of uptrend onto $1.3850-plus over coming days."

USD/JPY: "Whilst holding above 114.80 yen, rallies back above 115.45/70 (are likely) to target 116.00-plus."

USD/CHF: "Looking for a corrective recovery towards 1.2065 francs, 1.2090 maximum, before the decline resumes."

AUD/USD: "Support around mid-US$0.8200's to extend advance beyond US$0.8300 and onto US$0.8360."

NZD/USD: "Looking for a rally beyond US$0.6935 onto the key US$0.6970/85 resistance area."

Published on  Fri, Sep 7 2007, 09:54 GMT

JP Morgan, SEB Merchant Banking

Mon, Sep 3 2007, 09:54 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

No new report available today

TECHNICALS-EUR/USD may be heading towards $1.3540

JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "The August decline saw the medium term trend line tested and held at $1.3375 and the bounce from there could well be a 5 wave move completing around $1.3700. As such we are wary of a pullback to $1.3550/1.3500 again, then we will
see how that develops."

EUR/JPY: "Sitting under the 160 yen pivot region. A break should open a move towards 165 region where we will be looking for signs of a lower high. However, while under 160 we cannot rule out the market just slipping back towards the 155 region from here."

GBP/USD: "Much the same picture here with the rally from $1.98 developing in a possible 5 wave move and suggesting further gains will follow a corrective pullback. We are watching this channel at $2.0090 support more closely than the euro/dollar one as proof of a slide back to $2.00/1.9950."

SEB MERCHANT BANKING

EUR/USD: "Trading significantly broke the $1.3685 cap but failed to sustain gains. This should have repercussions into this week. If breaking the local $1.3580/20 support, there is good chance to also see some action at the near-term 50 percent retracement point and the Aug. 17 high around $1.3540/45."

EUR/CHF: "The break and the close above 1.6445 francs, together with an hourly triangle created since the break points north for today. A passing of 1.6480 will set the focus at/around the 1.6520-area."

EUR/JPY: "Failure to maintain the topside in the range of late has not only added a bearish "Doji", it has also created a divergence in the hourlies. A test of and possibly also violation of the Aug. 30 midday low of 156.80 yen looks increasingly likely."

Published on  Mon, Sep 3 2007, 09:54 GMT

ABN AMRO, Commerzbank

Fri, Aug 31 2007, 12:22 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

ABN AMRO PRIVATE BANKING

EUR/USD: "The market looks to be building a bullish pattern, the so-called ascending triangle. Holding above the supporting line at $1.3600 and especially the last low at $1.3594 keeps the developing pattern intact. Under the $1.3594 low, though, will make the main support at $1.3548 look vulnerable. If that were eliminated then the bears will likely turn their attention to the $1.3360 bottom. On the upside, clearing $1.3684 targets firstly the $1.3723 Fibonacci level but the possible pattern's implied reach is $1.3800."

USD/JPY: "The bears heavily hit 114.00 yen, which held. Prices then proceeded to pop higher but so far no significant rise has occurred. However, holding above the new though minor support at 115.15 will likely tempt buyers to take out the 117.14 to 117.70. On the downside, slipping under 115.15 will be the signal that the bears are getting ready to ram the 114.00 support."

GBP/USD: "The last decline held above the $1.9935 support and a possible ascending triangle is building. This makes it look as if an up leg is missing; meaning prices should pierce the $2.0200 resistance and head up to $2.0270. Once reached, selling should start again and drive levels under $1.9935 and on to $1.9744 and as low as $1.9653. The pattern remains valid as long as $2.0045 can hold as support. If not, then the bears will turn their attention to the main support at $1.9935. It would look vulnerable and its elimination will likely initiate a fall to $1.9653."

AUD/USD: "Prices have started heading higher again after some slight support was established at $0.8052. Holding above it should see levels head up to a Fibonacci level at $0.8420, where selling will likely start again. On the downside, slipping under $0.8052 calls for a fall to $0.7893 and potentially as far as $0.7676.

COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: "EUR/USD has failed to clear the $1.3680 resistance for 5 trading days now, but neither has it broken lower. The market remains corrective and we remain unable to rule out further upside scope towards $1.3735, 78.6 percent retracement, while the market holds over near term support at $1.3525. Ideally we would like to see failure shortly (favoured) and a slide below $1.3525 should be enough to refocus our attention onto the $1.3370/60 supports (recent low, 18 month uptrend and the 200 daily moving average). The $1.3735 level is regarded as the last defence for $1.3850, then $1.3930 the 14 month resistance line.

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY remains immediately offered while the short term chart is dominated by the downtrend at 116.51 yen. Overhead resistance extends to 117.70 (this zone represents the 50 percent retracement of the move lower seen recently, the 100 week moving average) and only a recovery above here would negate the current downside risk and suggest recovery (not favored). Loss of interim support at 14.00/113.70 should reinforce our bearish view and refocus attention on to the 111.60 recent low. Below 111.60 will signal further losses to 110.15 then 109.00/108.75 the 2006 low."

USD/CHF is attempting to erode minor resistance at 1.2055 francs we suspect it is neutralising near term as the market attempts to find a new base at 1.1960/00. With technical indicators still neutral to negative at best it is likely to struggle on attempts higher - overhead resistance lies at 1.2101 (55 dma) and then 1.2200/20 (200 daily moving average, Fibo and recent high). We look for dips to remain well supported in the 1.1960, 1.1900 region and would maintain a near term poilicy of attempting to buy these dips.

GBP/USD continues to hold near term upside corrective potential to extend gains towards $2.0270 (61.8 percent retracement of the last leg down), immediate pressure remains on the topside while above $1.9920. We view the upside as limited however as we note that technical studies remain neutral to negative. Interim support lies at $1.9920 and failure here is needed to suggest upside pressure was waning causing our attention to revert to the major support at $1.9750/1.9650 (15 month uptrend, 200 dma and recent low.

EUR/JPY: "While EUR/JPY consolidates below the 159.60/75 yen pivot, our bearish outlook remains fully entrenched. We look for the market to come under pressure shortly and our focus remains on interim support that lies at 153.40/00. Failure here (favoured) will retarget the 150.00/149.25 low. Longer term, the recent sell off reached a major support/target area 150.15/149.75, this represents the 23.6 percent retracement of the entire rally from the 2000 low to the 2007 peak and the 7 year uptrend. The market saw a minor breach of this level, but this was not sustained. Failure at 149.50/25 would be significant (favoured) and target 141.00."

Published on  Fri, Aug 31 2007, 12:22 GMT

Red Tower Research, SEB

Thu, Aug 30 2007, 09:14 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

GERRY CELAYA, REDTOWER RESEARCH

EUR/USD: "See if the euro/dollar can hold $1.3685/1.3730 after all, else $1.3850-plus here we go again."

USD/JPY: "Still like 118 for the dollar, then 124, but shaking off the cross moves looks tough still."

GBP/USD: "Sustained gains above $2.01 are worrying, $2.02 should cap here for the most part for $1.9650 and lower plays, key session ahead."

USD/CHF: "The stand at the 1.20 zone is getting a bit old, if this is a reversal pattern then 1.21 needs to be regained pretty quickly else 1.13 plus and lower will be at risk again.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "The inability to pass $1.3545 followed by the return above $1.3620/30 has postponed the bearish picture painted over the past days. A break above $1.3680 now looks imminent, with $1.3695 & $1.3735 as two likely targets. The bear will return if breaking $1.3685 but closing below."

USD/JPY: "Despite the sharp rebound yesterday, a bearish view is favoured, given the overlapping of 113.99 yen yesterday morning. To negate the overlap, the pair needs to return above the recent high point, 117.12."

Published on  Thu, Aug 30 2007, 09:14 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Thu, Aug 23 2007, 11:09 GMT
by Benny Menashe

Finotec Group Inc.

No new report available toay

EUR/USD: "On the charts aiming for a sustained breakdown through $1.36 to leave a double top in place, with $1.3350 still open on a simple swing target. See if the $1.3660/80 resistance zone can cap, while failure to break below $1.36 would worry USD bulls."

AUD/USD: "The AUD vs. the USD the 0.85 zone is capping, a slow grind in the AUD towards 0.8230/8170 should be seen."

NZD/USD: "The NZD saw retail sales slump, high rates biting home? Aiming for the NZD to be dragged towards 0.72 near term, then towards 0.70 below this in time."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Little to add as we continue consolidating below the all-time high at 1.3853. August's pullback is the same size as the late July one, so we might be forming an A, B, C-type correction. The euro is slightly oversold."

USD/JPY: "Trading surprisingly `heavily' despite the large `spike lows' against the 117.20 yen and potential `double bottom'. We still feel prices will hold above here this week, possibly squeezing back up to 119.84."

GBP/USD: "Frayed nerves as Cable trades at the lowest level since the 6th of July. We expect an interim base to form somewhere between here and 2.0000."

EUR/JPY: "Unable to bounce from the 160.00 yen area (which has been a big surprise for us). Possibly it might do a bit better today. The euro is slightly oversold against the yen."

Published on  Thu, Aug 23 2007, 11:09 GMT

Redtower Research, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Tue, Aug 14 2007, 10:11 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

REDTOWER RESEARCH

EUR/USD: "On the charts aiming for a sustained breakdown through $1.36 to leave a double top in place, with $1.3350 still open on a simple swing target. See if the $1.3660/80 resistance zone can cap, while failure to break below $1.36 would worry USD bulls."

AUD/USD: "The AUD vs. the USD the 0.85 zone is capping, a slow grind in the AUD towards 0.8230/8170 should be seen."

NZD/USD: "The NZD saw retail sales slump, high rates biting home? Aiming for the NZD to be dragged towards 0.72 near term, then towards 0.70 below this in time."

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Little to add as we continue consolidating below the all-time high at 1.3853. August's pullback is the same size as the late July one, so we might be forming an A, B, C-type correction. The euro is slightly oversold."

USD/JPY: "Trading surprisingly `heavily' despite the large `spike lows' against the 117.20 yen and potential `double bottom'. We still feel prices will hold above here this week, possibly squeezing back up to 119.84."

GBP/USD: "Frayed nerves as Cable trades at the lowest level since the 6th of July. We expect an interim base to form somewhere between here and 2.0000."

EUR/JPY: "Unable to bounce from the 160.00 yen area (which has been a big surprise for us). Possibly it might do a bit better today. The euro is slightly oversold against the yen."

Published on  Tue, Aug 14 2007, 10:11 GMT

CBCM, ABN AMRO, SEB

Fri, Aug 10 2007, 14:19 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

CBCM

EUR/USD has seen a strong rebound from its short term moving averages and we can only assume at this point that the market will once again rally to test its 14 month
resistance line at approximately $1.3890/1.3910. This remains a tough barrier for the market and following a recent key week reversal to the downside, we continue to suspect that market will struggle to sustain these upside rallies. Loss of $1.3720
should be enough to refocus attention on to the $1.3610 recent low."

USD/CHF: "Volatile price action near term - the dollar has held nearby support at 1.1915 and is attempting to rebound. Short term price are viewed as corrective - the move down to 1.1817 francs recently was accompanied by quite a large divergence on the daily RSI and we would allow for further recovery near term. However, near term rallies will face tough overhead resistance offered by the short term downchannel at
1.2045."

ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The bulls are clinging to the still valid upward bias but have yet to take out the $1.3854 resistance, which has twice been tested. The expectation is that this barrier will be taken out, which will bring a projected possible top at $1.4120 into focus. This only ends if prices slip below $1.3723, which will likely lead sellers to try to send levels under the last low at $1.3612."

SEB

USD/JPY: "The pair continued to try higher yesterday and finally overcame the 119.35/50 yen-resistance, meeting the first potential correction target, 119.85. A return below 119.05 will now confirm a top in place."

Published on  Fri, Aug 10 2007, 14:19 GMT

Redtower Research, CBCM

Tue, Aug 7 2007, 10:16 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

RedTower Research

EUR/USD: "On the charts today see if the euro/dollar can sink through $1.3760, with a breakdown towards $1.36 favored, double top?"

USD/CHF: "Early days, see if the dollar/swiss can punch through 1.1960 francs in the near term, with 1.20 key for 1.21 and a lot higher on a break. Technically selling the USD at 1.1960 with risk above 1.20 should attract for USD bears, but
the summer trading woes may actually see 1.23+ here and still keep the USD in a flat range..."

USD/JPY: "Watch the yen, punched through 118 yen after all, 119 put to the test, 119.45 is key to hold in order to avoid 121 and higher, still like 116.40 here but the bounce from above 117 was sharp..."

GBP/USD: "Cable should dive to $1.96 on a bear flag play, see if the upticks above $2.03 remain limited."

CBCM

EUR/USD: "euro/dollar has maintained upside pressure very near term and remains on course for its 14 month resistance line at approximately $1.3885/1.3910. This remains a tough barrier for the market and following a recent key week reversal to the downside, we continue to suspect that market will struggle to sustain these upside rallies. Messy ranging is likely to be seen between $1.3770 to $1.3880 with a break back below $1.3720 required to alleviate upside pressure."

USD/JPY: "dollar/yen sold off towards the 117.05/10 yen Fibonacci support and has seen a decent rebound from there that has eroded its accelerated downtrend. This move higher has been accompanied by a corresponding break higher by the daily RSI and we are suspicious that the market will attempt to recover towards its 100 and 200 day moving averages short term at 119.61/120.61."

USD/CHF: "The US dollar last week breached key support at 1.1880/1.1916 francs (December 2006 low and the base of a 7 month downchannel). The erosion of this key support has left the market directly offered and vulnerable to a further slide towards major Fibonacci support at 1.1705/00 however we would again anticipate recovery here (initial support lies at 1.1781 the location of the bottom of a short term downchannel)."

GBP/USD: "sterling/dollar appears to be stalling just ahead of $2.0475, the 61.8 percent retracement of the move down from the $2.0655/July peak. We are inclined to view recent strength as corrective only and although we would allow for probes into the $2.0470/2.0555 band we expect the rally to struggle here. Loss of $2.0260 near term should leave it on the defensive and our attention back on the key short term support at $2.0140/30."

Published on  Tue, Aug 7 2007, 10:16 GMT

SEB Technical Analysis Team, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Mon, Aug 6 2007, 10:32 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EURO/DOLLAR: "Violation above $1.3730 and more importantly $1.3775 has ended what became nothing more than a three-wave structure to the downside and from here a fresh high looks probable. Above $1.3850 a 50 percent extension point and the high in a respected 22-day price channel sets focus on $1.3910".

EURO/YEN: "The correction higher was again cut short with the high-163s a no mean task to break. A session close below 162 yen would call for fresh lows. Key local support at 161.70+/-10 pips. A fresh low would put attention to the 200-day average, now at 159".

EURO/SWISS FRANC: "Overhead resistance sharply rejected. Micro-term overstretched after thin markets Asian selloff, but good offers likely around 1.6410/30 francs. Targeting medium term 50- or 62 percent retracement points if the recent low gets eroded. (A sustained USD /CHF break below 1.19 will add fuel)".

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "Rallying smartly from the 9 and 26-day moving averages and set to re-test the all-time high at $1.3853. We would prefer to see more work below here this month but pressure to sell the US dollar against anything whatsoever is Mounting".

EURO/YEN: "Holding rather unsteadily at current levels. Expect more of the same today, maintaining a flexible approach".

STERLING/DOLLAR: "Not doing quite as well as the Euro or the Swiss franc, stalling at $2.0461 on Friday. Expect consolidation roughly between $2.0300 and $2.0500 for a couple of days".

DOLLAR/YEN: "Opening at 117.95 yen and dropping like a stone in the Far East today. While below first resistance at 118.08 strong bearish pressure is maintained and we would be looking for a drop to the bottom of the weekly 'cloud' at 115.60. However, there is a small chance of a short squeeze to 119.00 which is seen as a good selling opportunity".

Published on  Mon, Aug 6 2007, 10:32 GMT

Claude Mattern, BNP Paribas

Thu, Aug 2 2007, 10:37 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR/USD: "The currency pair is still seen holding above $1.3645, with a rebound above $1.3690, towards $1.3730. However downside risk is increasing, with $1.3610 as a bearish break point target at $1.3560."

USD/JPY: "Still consolidating last week's fall, after a spike seen at 117.60. Between 118.75 and 118.00, a retreat below the latter is expected later on, in direction of 117.60."

USD/CHF: "Remains balanced within a narrow range, close to bearish break points. Still under discussion, between 1.2065 and 1.1985, a fall below 1.1965 is expected, with the next target at 1.1880."

GBP/USD: "Remains below $2.0380, seen as a bullish break point. The daily indicators remain negative, but holding on their former troughs. The hourly ones are neutral, around zero."

EUR/JPY: "Unlike the February/March downside correction, the pair remains close to its former low, after last week's fall. The currency pair remains below the 38.2 percent retracement at 163.90. The daily indicators are on their former low (March's slump). The hourly ones are negative. A breach of 160.30 would argue for a decline towards the next major point at 159.70."

Published on  Thu, Aug 2 2007, 10:37 GMT

UBS, CommerzBank, ABN AMRO Private Banking

Thu, Jul 26 2007, 01:17 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

EURUSD BULLISH Bull Trend Remains Intact For 1.4000, Initial Support At 1.3740

USDJPY BEARISH Remains Heavy With Next Bear Trigger At 120.76, 122.62 Caps

USDCHF BEARISH 1.1961 Marks Trigger For Fresh Downside To 1.1880. Heavy Below 1.2100

AUDUSD BULLISH 0.8931 Next Significant Resistance - Initial Support At 0.8693

USDCAD BEARISH Bear Trend Still Dominant, Next Support 1.0399, Stay Bearish Below 1.0614

EURCHF BULLISH Break Above 1.6608 Opens 1.6673 Key Resistance. Support Is At 1.6519

EURGBP BEARISH Key Support At 0.6690 Exposed. Need 0.6771 Break To Offset Bear Threat

EURJPY NEUTRAL Uptrend Intact With The Focus On 170.00. Buy Dips Ahead Of 166.54

COMMERZBANK

EUR USD: "The euro held its 9 day moving average (currently located at $1.3798) again yesterday and posted a marginal new (all-time) high at $1.3844, we maintain our positive view. Further gains are still anticipated this week to initially test $1.3927 enroute to now test psychological resistance at $1.4000. Ultimately we look for the market to challenge $1.4116 (current location of 1 year up channel) in the shorter term before any significant correction or reversal occurs."

GBP USD: "GBP/USD continues to hold within its accelerated up trend. The current parameters of the up trend are now located at $2.0569/2.0768 and with the daily DMI trend index still positive we maintain dips are likely to be shallow, implying price will remain within its accelerated up phase and we therefore continue to look for new highs to test the next key resistance area of $2.0685/2.0768 (Elliot wave based target
and up channel) before any significant correction occurs."

EUR JPY: "We maintain that EUR/JPY is not currently trending and the outlook is corrective. Technically the market indicates to remain dominated by the 65.84/169.67 yen (4 month up trend and 3 month resistance line highlighted). The near term bias is to test 165.84 where we anticipate recovery. The daily DMI trend Index is now neutral to negative supporting this view."

ABN AMRO PRIVATE BANKING

EUR USD: "The trend remains up but its intensity is starting to decrease. However, no clear top has yet taken shape so only a break under the last intra-day low at 1.3797
indicates that the uptrend has entered a correction phase. Unless that happens then prices should rally past the recent $1.3847 peak which will keep the focus on a projected possible top at $1.4120."

USD JPY: "The market is hammering away at the 120.78/54 yen support area and this indicates a dip down to the 119.48 level is underway. Once reached, a bounce to test 120.78 as new resistance could occur before the downswing continues. Only a push up past the last intra-day peak at 121.52 starts to cool off the downside bias but the market will still need to deal with the strong looking barrier that emerged at 122.62.

GBP/USD: "The current uptrend set yet another fresh high and buyers are closing in on a projected possible top at $2.0675. It is a place where some hesitation could occur and perhaps a correction lower. But, only breaking below $2.0538 indicates that the uptrend has entered a correction phase with scope to $2.0459. If that were to give way then a decline to $2.0244 could follow. On the upside, a break above $2.0675 opens
the way to the next projected possible top at $2.1095."

NZD USD: "The bulls continue driving levels higher and could keep doing so until $0.8358 is reached. On the downside, only breaking below $0.8026 indicates that the uptrend is cooling slightly but a further fall below 0.7908 and preferably $0.7885 is needed to indicate that the market has entered a downward correction phase. That then will open the way for a decline to $0.7817 and potentially $0.7717."

Published on  Thu, Jul 26 2007, 01:17 GMT

ABN AMRO, SEB

Wed, Jul 18 2007, 14:55 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Euro/Dollar looks strained above $1.3850

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The uptrend has taken off again after new support was established at $1.3760. There is no resistance to speak of but the uptrend could run into trouble at a projected possible top which cuts in at $1.4120. On the downside, only slipping below the tested $1.3760 support call for any correction lower to kick in, this could make it as far down as $1.3642 before a new base builds”.

USD/JPY: "Downside momentum is tapering off but the bears are still hanging in there after forming a lower top at 122.62 yen. A break below the defended 120.58 support will give the market room to 119.53. On the upside, the bulls need to drive levels above 122.62 to start shaking off sellers. If that new resistance were cleared then the market will likely turn its attention to the massive 124.50 barrier."

GBP/USD: "Prices continue pushing higher and could reach a projected possible top at $2.0675 before any larger correction lower kicks in. Any potential decline should hold above $2.0443. Breaking below it will likely cause a drop down to trend line support at $2.0350 where a bottom could form. Slipping under that support line will target down to the $2.0244 handle."

USD/CHF: "Prices were driven below the 1.1985 franc level and could reach 1.1882 before rebounding. If that also snaps then the current decline should head down to 1.1739. Resistance starts at 1.2039 and extends to 1.2091. Only pushing up past that area starts reversing the downtrend and will give the marker room to correct up to 1.2193."

SEB

EUR/USD: "Trading showed little appetite to try above $1.38 yesterday, and despite this morning's push above, things still looks strained if moving above $1.3850 - where a rising trend line from last summer & the upper end of a much respected 22-day price-channel would restrict action. Shave off longs on any stall in the mid-$1.38s."

EUR/JPY: "Some tools point at a better move south, but have done so for some time & near-term price action still defy a move lower. Holding above 167.30 yen would keep holding the recent highs hostage, but a lower range extension today followed by a push below 167.75, would open for 167.30 and key 166.50."

EUR/CHF: "Yesterday's downward push and the bounce off key 1.6520 francs support saw above average volumes going through. But yet again sellers respond... Should buyers abstain from responding this time and not even defending the drawn line of rising support, the mid/low-1.64s come into play."

Published on  Wed, Jul 18 2007, 14:55 GMT

ABN AMRO, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Fri, Jun 22 2007, 12:52 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

STEVE WESIAK, ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The bulls were repelled at the $1.3438 resistance but are regrouping at the former $1.3386 low. This could lead to a new assault on the multi-tested $1.3438 barrier. Clearing it calls for a rise to at least $1.3475 before selling start again. On the downside, if the $1.3386 support snaps then a decline to $1.3350 can be expected."

USD/JPY: "On the upside, breaking above 123.75 yen targets 124.50, where some hesitation could begin again."

GBP/USD: "The market retains its upside bias and could reach a former peak at $1.9968 before unwinding. Taking it out though will extend the upside to the $2.0010 level before selling starts again. The market should now ideally hold above the overnight low at $1.9908 but the more important support is the tested $1.9870 level."

EUR/JPY: "The trend remains up but has started moving sideways after price made it to 166.11, close to a projected top at 166.60. The bulls still retain the advantage but this will end if they fail to defend the new support at 165.20. if that gives way then a fall to the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level at 163.55 can be expected before any new base builds."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

GBP/USD: "Popping above the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and just above $1.9900. Could do with some help from other major currencies, especially the euro. For today expect some more slightly nervous consolidation either side of $1.9900 with dips to $1.9800 seen as buying opportunities for the next move to $2.0000."

USD/JPY: "Looking set to try and nudge higher again today. One-month at-the-money implied volatility has dipped to a new record low at 5.70 percent. For this morning prices should hold above 123.00 yen again, then nudging to 124.00 later today/this week."

EUR/JPY: "The yen has lost ground against every currency over the last week, month and three months. We expect more of the same. Currently consolidating neatly just under the record high at 166.12 yen in what may be a tiny 'pennant' formation. The euro is overbought against the yen and bullish momentum has eased slightly. Expect more consolidation this morning with dips to the 165.00 area seen as buying opportunities for a move higher later this month."

EUR/USD: "Nothing to add as we continue to hold just above the bottom of a large Ichimoku 'cloud'. Note that one-month at-the-money implied volatility here has also dropped to a new record low of 4.60 percent. For this morning if we can hold above $1.3380 expect a squeeze to $1.3450/1.3480."

Published on  Fri, Jun 22 2007, 12:52 GMT

CommerzBank, LLoyds TSB Financial Markets

Wed, Jun 13 2007, 12:37 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "The tight sideways consolidation, which followed its recent break below its eight-month uptrend, is regarded as a bear flag and further losses are expected. Our Targets are $1.3225 (Fibonacci retracement) and then $1.3085/1.3140 (15 month uptrend, 200 day moving average and Fibonacci retracement). Rallies are expected to find good interim resistance at $1.3380 and remain contained by $1.3440 to leave the market directly offered."

USD/JPY: "Eroding the 122.17 yen resistance...We do have an additional resistance level here at 122.40, which represent the 61.8 percent retracement of the entire move from the 2002 high to the 2005 low. This is now exposed. Recent price action implies that the 120.80 recent low is an interim low and we should see further gains short term towards 125.40/70, December 2002 highs, enroute to 128.00."

LLOYDS TSB FINANCIAL MARKETS

EUR/GBP: "Fell below 67.50 pence support yesterday and could test further ownside around 67.30 in the event of strong UK data."

LBBW

EUR/USD: "Saw ongoing selling interest and could test the $1.3250/20 support still. Only hourly close above $1.3410 will stabilize and will lead up to $1.3550 barrier once again."

USD/JPY: "We are on our way up to 122.60 yen still as long as we stay above 119.80 daily close."

USD/CHF: "In extension of the rally and hourly close above 1.2450 francs will lead to 1.2550 next, ahead of 1.2610. Only hourly close below 1.2250 will abort and will start the new decline. But today could see further gains first."

EUR/GBP: "Broke below 67.50 pence and could test 67.05 now ahead of 66.90."

GBP/USD: "After testing the $1.9620/10 support we are on the way back north again and hourly close above $1.9780 will confirm the start of a new rally."

EUR/JPY: "In a small correction still, but long term target is set at 165/168 yen ahead of 175

Published on  Wed, Jun 13 2007, 12:37 GMT

SEB Merchant Banking, UBS

Tue, Jun 12 2007, 11:02 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB MERCHANT BANKING

NZD/USD: "Holding the April high. Yesterday's print is obviously bearish but nevertheless "synthetic" given RBNZ involvement, and despite intervention the pair holds the April highs well. If making it back above US$0.7525 there are reasons to believe the market is sturdy enough to test the RBNZ strength through a US$0.7585 move."

EUR/USD: "Very little action was seen yesterday as the pair spent the entire session consolidating the losses from last week. The sideways pattern should be labeled continuation pattern, thus a downside break has the highest probability."

USD/JPY: "The pair continues to gather strength within the 121.50/85 yen-range. We continue to advocate that a break to the upside soon will take place, passing the yearly high, 122.20. We expect bids to remain firm in the mid 121's."

EUR/CHF: "The so far marginal but nevertheless violation of 1.6532 is a strong indication of a completed bull flag and new highs in the making. Go long the pair with a stop below 1.6490, target in the mid 1.66's"

UBS

The break of EUR/USD support in the 1.3371 to 1.3368 area reinforces the short-term bear trend developing from the 1.3683 late-April high, and leaves little support till the 1.3288 March 30 reaction low. Meanwhile, resistance is located around Friday's high at 1.3436.

USD/CHF's sharp push from last week's 1.2148 low has moved through the 1.2357 notable reaction high from March 9. Penetration there clears the way for a run at 1.2438, the February 22 reaction high and the 0.764 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline.

Friday's break of the 1.9677 May 21 low in GBP/USD opens the door toward the 1.9591 April 9 low. Friday's late-reaction high around 1.9708 marks initial resistance.

USD/JPY 122.20/38 resistance. After holding support at the bottom of congestion around 120.67, the resuming USD/JPY bull trend is taking aim at the old 122.15 trend high from June 1. Nearby is the 122.20 high from January 29, followed by 122.38, the 0.618 retracement of the 135.18-101.67 big decline.

Our model reading for AUD/USD remains positive, a sign that the recovery from last week's 0.8163 low has further potential. The recent push above resistance at the 0.8396 April 18 trend high clears the way towards 0.8500 psychological resistance. Meanwhile, near term support is located at Friday's 0.8366 reaction low.

USD/CAD remains heavy with little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Initial resistance is around 1.0715, a reaction high from Friday.

EUR/JPY retains bearish bias. EUR/JPY's break of support at 162.95 clears the way for a run at the 161.08 May 11 low. Only a move above the 162.92 reaction high from June 7 would offset downward pressures in the short run. EUR/GBP's recent decline ran out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.

EUR/CHF model reading has turned from neutral to positive and a sustained push above the 1.6553 Monday's high would give us price proof of a resuming bull trend. Meanwhile, the May 11 low at 1.6414 marks the next key support.

Published on  Tue, Jun 12 2007, 11:02 GMT

Technical Research Limited, CommerzBank Corporates & Markets, SEB

Mon, Jun 11 2007, 10:40 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICAL RESEARCH LIMITED

NZD/USD: "New Zealand dollar reverses gains and resistance now about US$ 0.7580/0.7600 probably now contains, yielding sell-off toward US$0.7475 en route to US$0.7400 level."

ANDY HART, COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: "Our targets are $1.3225 then $1.3085/1.3140 (15 month uptrend, 200 day moving average and Fibonacci retracement). Rallies are expected to find good interim
resistance at $1.3410 and remain contained by $1.3460 to leave the markets directly offered."

USD/CHF: "USD/CHF has severed its 15 month downtrend at 1.2312, the break is significant as it implies that the market is at last breaking higher from a sideways range that has dominated the market over the past year. We look for initial gains towards 1.2570/80, the 2007 peak and beyond there target the 1.2720/4 year downtrend."

GBP/USD: "The move lower on Friday was damaging, it saw the market break below the 100 day moving average at $1.9702 for the first time in 3 months. It has also broken below its 50 percent retracement at $1.9660 and we start this week focussing on underlying support. Initial support lies at $1.9550/22 (2004 high) and then $1.9420/10, the one year uptrend. These are now exposed, failure will target 1.9180/2007 low."

USD/JPY: "Despite a decent rebound, the market has yet to clear the 122.17/2007 yen peak and the risk is that the market will again fail there near term/consolidate further. Although we remain unable to rule out a deeper retracement towards the 120.22 / 3 month uptrend - this is expected to hold the downside and provoke recovery. Longer term our positive bias is maintained and we favour an eventual erosion of the 122.17 recent high. Above 122.17 would introduce scope to 125.40/70.

TECHNICAL RESEARCH TEAM, SEB

USD/JPY: "Friday's key day reversal clearly states that the yearly high, 122.20 yen, is about to be passed. We expect to find firm bids in the 121.40/50-area and recommend joining them (with a stop below 120.95). A break of 122.20 should follow, highlighting 124/125."

Published on  Mon, Jun 11 2007, 10:40 GMT

UBS, CommerzBank Corporates & Markets, JP Morgan

Tue, Jun 5 2007, 10:23 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

GBP USD extends gains towards 2.0000.

EUR USD We continue to favour further downside in EURUSD. A sustained break of last Friday's 1.3392 new trend low would open the door for a run at 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Meanwhile, initial resistance is around 1.3521, last Tuesday's reaction high.

USD CHF's recent corrective pullback bottomed last Tuesday at 1.2198, with the recovery from there likely to push to a new trend high above 1.2332 and test resistance from 1.2353 to 1.2357. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively.

GBP USD clears resistance at the 1.9901 May 29 high and a sustained move above this level would open up scope towards 2.0000, May 9 high ahead of 2.0076, May 1 high. Beneath 1.9812 Monday's low would jeopardize the preferred case for a run below the 1.9733 to 1.9714 congestion area, which would open the door toward the 1.9677 trend low.

USD JPY bull trend remains intact with the focus on the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Not far off is 122.38, the 0.618 of 135.18-101.67 big decline. The 120.85 May 25 low marks initial support for now.

AUD USD Our model reading for AUDUSD has turned from neutral to positive, a sign that the recovery from last week's 0.8163 low has more potential. Initial resistance is at the 0.8354 May 13 high. A move above there would clear the way for an eventual move above the 0.8396 April 18 high.

USD CAD remains heavy and a break of last Thursday's 1.0665 low leaves little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Initial resistance is around 1.0712.

EUR GBP retains bearish bias.

EUR CHF has a positive model reading today, but only a sustained push above 1.6549 would give us price proof of a resuming bull trend. This level marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.6614-1.6443 decline, and a move above it would expose the 1.6614 trend high from May 20.

EUR JPY The bull trend in EURJPY remains intact, and only a break of initial support at 162.95 would point to a noteworthy correction taking hold. Until then, our focus will remain on the 165.63 broad-picture Elliott wave target.

EUR GBP's recent decline ran out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.

COMMERZBANK CORPORATES & MARKETS

EUR/USD: "The sideways consolidation continues near term within contracting ranges bordered by $1.3527 (6 week downtrend) and $1.3360 (the 8 month uptrend). As we have seen a recent failure to break the $1.3665/80 resistance, we are concerned that the market has charted an interim top and for now, while rallies are capped by $1.3530 we will assiume that trendline support is exposed. Failure here would target $1.3100 enroute to the $1.2820/5 year uptrend.

USD/JPY: "Has failed on its initial attempt at the 122.17/2007 yen peak. Immediate upside pressure is maintained while above the 2 month uptrend at 121.53 today. Technical indicators have turned more neutral. Failure to hold 121.50 would introduce scope for a pullback towards the 119.93/65 band (this is the location of the 4 month uptrend at the 100 day moving average). This is expected to hold the downside and rovoke recovery. Above 122.17 would introduce scope to 125.40/70."

USD/CHF: "Has seen yet another rejection from its 2 year downtrend at 1.2321 currently and very near term the market is vulnerable to stabs down to 1.2165/25 and possibly 1.2080/30, these are expected to be relatively short lived and we would expect the 1.2080/30 zone to act as a short term floor for the market."

EUR/GBP: "Easing lower in its medium term range and while capped by minor resistance at 68.10/20 pence, a slight downside bias will persist for a slide back to long term moving averages at 67.54/40 pence, we again look for these to hold the downside. Interim resistance lies at 68.10/20 pence (minor Fibonacci retracements) and the market will need to regain these levels to reassert upside pressure in the range.

GBP/USD: "Has seen a minor breach of key resistance at $1.9905 (50 percent retracement of recent move lower). This was enough to stop out our short positions and imply some further near term strength. We continue to suspect that the $2.0135/April peak was an interim peak for the market, however following the break above $1.9905, a more protracted process of `topping out' looks likely. We would allow for forays into the $2.0000/35 band, however we suspect that these will be relatively short lived."

JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "We need to break up through channel resistance at $1.3525 to get more excited here."

USD/JPY: "The JPY remains the core under performer, with USDJPY actually grinding up and putting more pressure on the 122/122.20 region, but its the crosses that benefit the most with the commodity currencies still leading the way."

GBP/USD: "Cable (is) up towards key resistance around 1.9950. These levels need to break to add confirmation of a further fall (for the dollar) otherwise the risk of a larger ange remains."

Published on  Tue, Jun 5 2007, 10:23 GMT

UBS, CommerzBank

Mon, Jun 4 2007, 10:50 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

USD CAD weakens further towards 1.0496.

EUR USD Last Tuesday's 1.3521 corrective high is forcing a return of the bear trend in EURUSD. A sustained break of last Friday's 1.3392 new trend low would open the door for a run at 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Mild initial resistance is around 1.3479, last Thursday's reaction high.

USD CHF's recent corrective pullback bottomed last Tuesday at 1.2198, with the recovery from there likely to push to a new trend high above 1.2334 and test resistance from 1.2353 to 1.2357. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively.

GBP USD's recent bounce from last Wednesday's 1.9733 low has held below the 1.9832 small reaction high from the previous session. Only a move above this week's 1.9901 would jeopardize the preferred case for a run below the 1.9733 to 1.9714 congestion area, which would open the door toward the 1.9677 trend low.

USD JPY bull trend remains intact with the focus on the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Not far off is 122.38, the 0.618 of 135.18-101.67 big decline. May 25 low at 120.85 low marks support.

AUD USD Given the persistent choppy action since mid-April, it's no wonder our model reading for AUDUSD is neutral. The recent move above 0.8272 to 0.8273 congestive resistance paves the way for a run at the 0.8353 mid-May high. But 0.8396 and 0.8163 mark the boundaries of the big trading range; only a move beyond one of this levels would likely spark a sustainable trend.

USD CAD remains heavy and a break of last Thursday's 1.0665 low would leave little support till 1.0496. There the large decline from the 1.4005 May 2004 high would equal the distance travelled in the 1.6190-1.2681 preceding decline. Keep an eye on 1.0761 last Wednesday's high; a break could spark a notable corrective recovery.

EUR JPY focuses at 165.63. The recent slide from 1.6614. So far the setback in EURJPY 164.31 from last Tuesday has been unable to break congestive support in the 163.04 to 162.95 area. This keeps the underlying bull trend intact and our focus on 165.63 broad-picture Elliott wave target.

EUR CHF has room towards support at the 1.6414 May 11 low. Only a move above 1.6551, May 23 high would confirm a resumption of the broader bullish trend.

EUR GBP's recent decline has run out of steam after pushing to within seven pips of the early-April 0.6747 range bottom. But only a move above 0.6819 (0.618 of 0.6858-0.6755) would shift focus to the 0.6858 to 0.6868 range top.

COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "We view the sideways consolidation evident over the past eight trading days as a bearish consolidation. This view will be maintained, while rallies are capped by the downtrend at $1.3533. We continue to target the $1.3354/7 month uptrend but intraday we would allow for further ranging."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY is poised to challenge the 122.17 yen 2007 peak. Technical indicators are looking slightly more positive and immediate upside pressure is maintained while above the two-month uptrend at 121.41 today. So not much room to anoevre and we will find out in the next couple of days if this high will give way or not. With technical indicators more positive the risks are slightly skewed for an upside break."

USD/CHF: "Last week USD/CHF executed a 38.2 percent retracement (1.2200) and consolidated sideways. It starts this week with the focus on the 2 year downtrend, urrently at 1.2323 francs. Whilst we remain unable to rule out further stabs down to 1.2165/25 and possibly 1.2080/30, these are expected to be relately shortlived."

EUR/GBP: "EUR/GBP has recently bounced just ahead of the long term moving averages at 67.52/40 pence, and remains range bound. So far the market has not managed to reassert upside pressure in the range and while capped by 68.20, the near term risk this week will be for a slide back to these moving average supports. We again look for these to hold the downside."

GBP/USD: "Last week GBP/USD again stalled at key resistance at $1.9905 (50 percent retracement of recent move lower). The market this week is sidelined between here and support at $1.9696/60 (100 day moving average, recent low and Fibonacci retracement). While capped by $1.9905, near term risks remain on the downside."

EUR/JPY: "Has spent several weeks now consolidating at the 164.05/25 yen major target area. It continues to push hard into major resistance at 164.05/25. We are less wary of failure here but only a close above 164.25 will convince us that the market is capable of further strength currently."

Published on  Mon, Jun 4 2007, 10:50 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank, SEB

Wed, May 30 2007, 09:54 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

NICOLLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Trying to move higher but slapped down again yesterday afternoon. Expect another attempt today where a successful move higher needs participation of all major currencies. A daily close above $1.3500 should turn momentum bullish."

EUR/JPY: "Very nasty as we set a new all-time high a 164.29 clearly above key resistance at 164.00, and then retreating to form a small 'spike high'. We continue with a very cautious stance and favors a decent bout of correction and consolidation over the next month or two. For this week expect a test of the 26-day moving average at 162.69 and the trend line at 162.29 today. A sustained break below here should set off a slide to the top of the Ichimoku `cloud'."

GBP/USD: "Trying to break above the top of the 'flag' but needs help from other major currencies. Maybe this will materialize today. A weekly close above $1.9900 should turn momentum clearly bullish, as would a monthly close above$2.0000."

USD/JPY: "Very slow work as we hover at these historically high levels. While above 120.70 we will not rule out a little further upside probing, but note we are looking marginally more top-heavy today. However, a drop (and possibly a very sharp one) is what we currently favors. For this morning expect some work between 121.00 and 121.80. Below 120.70 should set off a sudden slip to 119.50."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "Sharp rejection to fresh highs seems to keep the pair on the correction path. A lower range extension (break below the range set in the opening hour) would pencil in losses worth 30-50 pips on the day, taking out the lows of late to test 1.34

EUR/JPY: "The wedge & bearish price/momentum divergence were confirmed again yesterday after failure to maintain the fresh treaded high. Responding buyers still seems to loom in the area but must show initiative above 163.70 not to risk violation below 162.80 to target 162.20."

GBP/USD: "Failure to maintain the break above the potentially bullish flag has left us with a standout topside rejection. If bids just below $1.98 are filled price action will defy last week's 'key reversal' to the upside and question the sub-$1.97 low."

EUR/CHF: "With a clear three wave pattern to 1.6530hourly chart) followed by a break of 1.6500, the minor upside reaction was confirmed completed. Thus the pair is now falling within the next downside wave, aiming primarily at the 1.6395-area."

Published on  Wed, May 30 2007, 09:54 GMT

UBS Bank, Mizuho Corporate Bank, SEB

Tue, May 29 2007, 10:33 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS Bank

EUR USD Our proprietary model has turned from neutral to bearish for EURUSD, keepings its focus on 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Nearby is the 1.3368, the breakout high from early December. Initial resistance is at last ednesday's 1.3503 high, but only a move above congestive resistance in the 1.3532 to 1.3545 area would halt downward pressures.

USD CHF maintains a bullish theme following the recent break of 1.2285, the April 9 prominent reaction high. This paves the way for gains towards the 1.2353 to 1.2357 area. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively. Mild support is in the 1.2241 last Wednesday's low.

GBP USD reversed higher from last week's 1.9677 trend low. Sustained gains above last week's 1.9875 previous correction high would mark a turn in the short-term bear trend from the mid-April 2.0134 high. The next resistance is the 2.0000 May 9 high. Mild support for now is at last Tuesday's 1.9772 breakout high.

USD JPY cleared resistance at the 121.65 February 22 reaction high, shifting focus to the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Congestion from 120.67 to 120.48 marks initial support. The fact that support has held suggests the recent pullback is simply corrective in nature.

AUD USD's penetration of the 0.8230 low exposes the 0.8170 May 3 low. Only a break of this latter level would bring up the possibility of a downward resolution to the month-long sideways phase that began at 0.8396. Initial resistance is around 0.8273.

USD CAD's break of the 1.0929 May 31, 2006 multi-year trend low exposes a measured target at 1.0763. The top of congestion at 1.0908 marks initial resistance.

EUR CHF The recent slide from 1.6614 in EURCHF has little support till the 1.6414 May 11 low. Only a break of this level would give us the first price confirmation of a broader trend change toward the bearish camp. Until then, note that above 1.6614, there's little resistance till the 1.6718, a synthetic high from May 1997.

EUR JPY has stalled at 164.02 and this level now marks key resistance and bull trigger. The break of 162.60 support opened the door for sustained breach of the 62.20 Fibonacci support (0.618 of 161.08-164.02). The quick recovery from there is encouraging to the underlying bull trend, but only a move to a new trend high would offset vulnerability toward the 161.08 May 11 low.

EURGBP has pulled away from the top end of the two-month old trading range at 0.6868. Only a move above there or a break of the bottom of the range at 0.6747 would establish bullish trend direction for the big picture. For the short run, the bottom of the range is in view.

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Still trying to form an interim base and hopefully will become a bit more interesting this week. Expect more of the same this morning with a daily close above $1.3500 turning momentum bullish.

EUR/JPY: "Looking a little 'tired' but not exactly keeling over. We continue with a very cautious stance and favour a decent bout of correction and consolidation over the next month or two. For this week expect a test of the 26-day moving average at 162.13 yen and the trendline at 162.16 today. A sustained break below here should set off a slide to the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud'."

GBP/USD: "Hopefully prices will get a boost from the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud'. Today we should again probe the top of the 'flag' and the 26-day moving average at $1.9876. A weekly close above $1.9900 should turn momentum clearly bullish."

USD/JPY: "Little to add as we hover at these historically high levels. While above 120.70 yen we will not rule out a little further upside probing. However, a drop (and possibly a very sharp one) is what we currently favour. For this morning expect some work between 121.00 and 121.80. Below 120.70 should set off a sudden slip to 119.50."

SEB

EUR/USD: "Yesterday's session was spent in a 40-60 range before the market earlier this morning explored the downside and found buyers towards $1.3420. Poor downside price action still keeps the door to higher levels open. Breaking $1.3460/80 and potentially $1.3520/30”.

EUR/JPY: "The pair experienced a rather hefty sell-off in Asia this morning, falling 50 percent of the Friday candle. However as long as the 162.80/163.00 yen-area cushions, the decline will be labeled corrective. A break above 163.85 sets us back on track for a new high."

Published on  Tue, May 29 2007, 10:33 GMT

UBS, SEB, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Mon, May 28 2007, 10:54 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

USDJPY aims to unlock 122.20. Our proprietary model has turned from neutral to bearish for EURUSD, keepings its focus on 1.3371, the 0.382 retracement of 1.2865-1.3683. Nearby is the 1.3368, the breakout high from early December. Initial resistance is at last Wednesday's 1.3503 high, but only a move above congestive resistance in the 1.3532 to 1.3545 area would halt downward pressures.

USDCHF maintains a bullish theme following the recent break of 1.2285, the April 9 prominent reaction high. This paves the way for gains towards the 1.2353 to 1.2357 area. This zone marks the 0.618 retracement of the 1.2575-1.1994 decline and the March 9 reaction high, respectively. Mild support is in the 1.2241 last Wednesday's low.

GBPUSD reversed higher from last week's 1.9677 trend low. Sustained gains above last week's 1.9875 previous correction high would mark a turn in the short-term bear trend from the mid-April 2.0134 high. The next resistance is the 2.0000 May 9 high. Mild support for now is at last Tuesday's 1.9772 breakout high.

USDJPY cleared resistance at the 121.65 February 22 reaction high, shifting focus to the January-February 122.10 to 122.20 double top. Congestion from 120.67 to 120.48 marks initial support. The fact that support has held suggests the recent pullback is simply corrective in nature.

AUDUSD's penetration of the 0.8230 low exposes the 0.8170 May 3 low. Only a break of this latter level would bring up the possibility of a downward resolution to the month-long sideways phase that began at 0.8396. Initial resistance is around 0.8273.

USDCAD's break of the 1.0929 May 31, 2006 multi-year trend low exposes a measured target at 1.0763. The top of congestion at 1.0908 marks initial resistance.

EURGBP stays vulnerable. The recent slide from 1.6614 in EURCHF has little support till the 1.6414 May 11 low. Only a break of this level would give us the first price confirmation of a broader trend change toward the bearish camp. Until then, note that above 1.6614, there's little resistance till the 1.6718, a synthetic high from May 1997.

EURJPY has stalled at 164.02 and this level now marks key resistance and bull trigger. The break of 162.60 support opened the door for sustained breach of the 162.20 Fibonacci support (0.618 of 161.08-164.02). The quick recovery from there is encouraging to the underlying bull trend, but only a move to a new trend high would offset vulnerability toward the 161.08 May 11 low.

EURGBP has pulled away from the top end of the two-month old trading range at 0.6868. Only a move above there or a break of the bottom of the range at 0.6747 would establish bullish trend direction for the big picture. For the short run, the bottom of the range is in view.

SEB

EUR/USD: "As the pair slipped through the $1.3437 support the neutral stance was turned into a bearish one. However the price action below $1.3437 and especially below $1.3416 hasn't been good to say the least, questioning further decline at the moment. Stronger support begins around $1.3370."

EUR/JPY: "The topside failure yielded the expected take profit selling. It also appears that we with a completed wave pattern from the March low point risks seeing further downside pressure, aiming at either 161.10 yen or 159.60 as primary correction targets."

NZD/USD: "The pair has fallen back to the short-term key US$0.7250 reference and we view the risk of extending losses as high. A lower extension today in Europe (haven't seen one in Asia yet) is likely to drag the market down to test ... US$0.7200, not excluding further losses.

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Still trying to form an interim base against the Ichimoku `cloud'. Expect more of the same today, noting that only a daily close above $1.3638 suggests this is in place."

USD/JPY: "Tiny signs of instability at these historically high levels. While above 120.70 yen we will not rule out further upside probing. However, a drop (and possibly a very sharp one) is what we currently favour. For this morning expect some work between 120.70 and 121.50. Below 120.70 should set off a sudden slip to 119.50."

GBP/USD: "Trying but to break higher needs the help of other currencies. This looks imminent -- if not today then next week. Today we should again probe the top of the flag' formation since mid-April. A weekly close above $1.9900 should turn momentum clearly bullish."

EUR/JPY: "Looking a little 'tired' but not exactly keeling over. We continue with a very cautious stance and favour a decent bout of correction and consolidation over the next month or two. For today expect a test of the 26-day moving average at 162.13 yen and the trendline at 162.00. A sustained break below here should set off a slide to the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud'."

Published on  Mon, May 28 2007, 10:54 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Fri, May 25 2007, 12:35 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Still trying to form an interim base against the Ichimoku 'cloud'. Expect more of the same today, noting that only a daily close above $1.3638 suggests this is in place."

USD/JPY: "Tiny signs of instability at these historically high levels. While above 120.70 yen we will not rule out further upside probing. However, a drop (and possibly a very sharp one) is what we currently favour. For this morning expect some work between 120.70 and 121.50. Below 120.70 should set off a sudden slip to 119.50."

GBP/USD: "Trying but to break higher needs the help of other currencies. This looks imminent -- if not today then next week. Today we should again probe the top of the 'flag' formation since mid-April. A weekly close above $1.9900 should turn momentum clearly bullish."

EUR/JPY: "Looking a little 'tired' but not exactly keeling over. We continue with a very cautious stance and favor a decent bout of correction and consolidation over the next month or two. For today expect a test of the 26-day moving average at 162.13 yen and the trend line at 162.00. A sustained break below here should set off a slide to the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud'."

Published on  Fri, May 25 2007, 12:35 GMT

SEB, JP Morgan

Thu, May 24 2007, 11:11 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "The break lower failed short of the next support, $1.3405 and rallied back to take out the $1.3480 stops. Long shadows on both sides points to a currently balanced market and thus we prefer to hold a neutral view for today."

EUR/JPY: "The pair did yesterday break to a fresh high however only to immediately be sold down into the previous congestion range. The behavior should be annoying to bulls and thus the risk of a profit taking driven move lower has increased."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, JP MORGAN

GBP/USD: "Yesterday's rally on the back of the BoE minutes developed a clear impulsive wave structure, while suggesting additional upside is likely. With the near term setup suggesting some initial pause/pullback, we would view dips to establish long positions. Importantly, the $1.9770 overlap should continue to hold to maintain the upside bias.”

EUR/USD: "Our most popular chart of late, as yesterday's early decline effectively held the key $1.3415 channel support before lifting higher, while allowing us to enter into a long position. We are closely monitoring the $1.3500/30 resistance zone as the failure to extend through here would suggest further range action is likely."

EUR/GBP "Yesterday's decline in EURGBP took on a much more impulsive bias with the break of the 68.30/00 pence supports and following last week's failure near the 68.67 March peak. We maintain our short position as the cross still looks Vulnerable to further short term downside and a better test of the interim range lows near 67.60/50."

USD/JPY: "Where we would be careful is in dollar/yen, as the rally is quickly approaching the important 122.10/20 highs from Jan/Feb, which seems to be an area where some consolidation can develop."

Published on  Thu, May 24 2007, 11:11 GMT

Euro rebound possible while $1.34 holds

Tue, May 22 2007, 11:06 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

LOYDS TSB FINANCIAL MARKETS

GBP/USD: "Another off day for sterling yesterday pushed (the pound) below $1.9700 and means we are on the brink of testing $1.9670 support. A break below this pivotal 50 percent Fibonacci retracement level could presage a correction to $1.9560 and possibly $1.9200. Any hopes of a rebound towards $2.0 will need to be justified by an initial rally back towards $1.9780."

EUR/GBP: "A much stronger than forecast (German ZEW) survey outcome in the vicinity of 30.0 could give the euro a fillip and lift euro/sterling right back to 65.50 pence with resistance pegged at 65.58, last week's high."

CLAUDE MATTERN, BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "Testing support, within a descending channel. Between $1.3420 and $1.3485, a rebound towards $1.3530 is expected later on. Below $1.3400, the next main support is at $1.3365."

USD/JPY: "Finding new resistance on its previous top at 121.65 yen, with the high of the year at 122.20. The currency pair remains supported, without much momentum. The daily indicators are slightly positive, within their neutral area. The hourly ones are neutral, turning downside, suggesting resistance."

USD/CHF: "Testing a resistance towards 1.2330 francs trend line, with its former high at 1.2355. The currency pair is challenging the bearish trend. Between 1.2330 and 1.2295, a return towards 1.2245 is expected later on."

EUR/GBP: "Seen finding support between 68.23/16 pence, before a rebound towards 68.37, a rise above that level arguing for a return towards 68.58."

GBP/USD: "Within a descending channel, quickly finding support on the downside break. The currency pair is still in consolidation of the rise seen in March/April. The daily indicators remain positive. The hourly ones are supportive."

EUR/JPY: "Approaching the 38.2 percent of a long term fall, at 164.05 yen, seen as a strong resistance. The daily indicators are positive, slightly above zero, turning downside. The moving average convergence/divergence indicator (MACD) is moving downside. The hourly ones are neutral. The exchange rate is seen between 164.05 and 163.10. A fall below the latter would argue for a return towards 162.60."

Published on  Tue, May 22 2007, 11:06 GMT

UBS Bank, SEB

Mon, May 21 2007, 14:44 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS Bank

EUR/USD: "The sharp break in EURUSD from $1.3612 is thus far holding above May 11 $1.3462 low. Only a break there would undermine the underlying bullish bias. So until then, we'll look for a move above last Thursday's $1.3545 reaction high to revive the bull trend and bring focus back on the $1.3612 to $1.3629 area."

USD/CHF maintains the pattern of higher highs and higher lows originating from April 25's 1.1994 low, but we need to see a sustained break of the 1.2285 April 9 high to suggest the advance is something more meaningful than a correction. Intraday support cuts in at last Thursday's 1.2196 low."

GBP/USD remains heavy below $1.9875, keeping its focus on $1.9659, the 50 percent retracement of the $1.9184 to $2.0134 advance.

USD/JPY: "The recent push above the 120.54 Fibonacci resistance leaves USDJPY with little resistance till 121.65 February 22 reaction high. Initial support is at last Tuesday's 120.10 low, but only a break of May 11 119.47 reaction low would damage the healthy tone."

EUR/CHF has cleared the 1.6574 July 1998 synthetic high and poised to ascend further towards 1.6718, May 1997 high. Last Tuesday's 1.6483 reaction low marks initial support, but a break of May 11 1.6414 low would undermine the bullish theme."

EUR/CHF: "The news-inspired sell off has taken out support at last Wednesday's 163.10 and is now testing below last Friday's low at 162.60. The next support is 162.16, the 0.618 retracement of the 161.08-163.92 rise. But it will take a break of May 11 161.08 low before we can infer a broader trend change toward the bearish camp."

EUR/GBP has rebounded, pressing toward the top end of the two-month old sideways trading range at 68.68. Only a move above there would establish bullish trend Direction.

SEB

EUR/USD: "The pair initially fell into the $1.3460/75 support zone but given hourly oversold momentum indicators an upside reaction occurred form the area. The most likely point for the correction to end and the next downside attempt to start is $1.3545/55."

EURO/JPY: "The quick down and up move on Friday (in a clear three way manner) clearly states that higher levels should be seen. Clearing the 163.90/95-resistance should set the 164.70-area in the limelight."

Published on  Mon, May 21 2007, 14:44 GMT

Commerz Bank

Thu, May 17 2007, 08:33 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

KAREN JONES, COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "Our short term outlook for EUR/USD remains dominated by the 4 month uptrend at $1.3464 today. It remains quite reliant on this level for short term stability and while above here, scope will remain for probes into the $1.3625/35 band above here should trigger a challenge of the $1.3680 recent high. Failure to hold the uptrend will imply that $1.3680 is a more important peak and leave the euro at risk of a deeper sell off to the $1.3276/7 month uptrend."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY has broken above the 120.65 Fibonacci resistance. We would like to see some follow through price action today (favoured), nonetheless currently the market is well placed to make further gains to the 122.15 recent peak. Our view remains that upside pressure is maintained while dips hold over 119.36/118.99 - the 100 day moving average and short term uptrend."

USD/CHF: "USD/CHF inched higher yesterday, it remains corrective near term and further attempts on the topside look likely as the market eroded minor resistance at 1.2225 yesteday. Tougher resistance lies at 1.2265/1.2320, this is the location of the April high and the 100 and 200 day moving averages. Near term support lies at 1.2125/1.2080, and protects the 1.2020 2-year uptrend."

EUR/GBP: "No change in view - EUR/GBP's outlook remains bullish. We suspect that the market has recently broken higher from a symmetrical triangle, these are bullish continuation patterns and breaks from these tend to be quite dynamic. Therefore we should see the 68.65 pence/March high challenged fairly quickly. This remains the break up point to 69.35/60 pence, the 4 year resistance line. Dips should remain well supported on moves to 68.00/67.90 pence."

GBP/USD: "The market is contained in a near term downchannel, which today offers support at $1.9738 and resistance at $1.9995. The recovery in the range saw no follow through yesterday and the market appears to be struggling with the $1.9880 minor resistance. We suspect further sideways ranging will be seen and that the correction lower, which has been in evidence over the past couple of weeks has further to run. Below the $1.9738 channel support would imply a slide back to $1.9660/50 was underway (50 pct retrace and the 100 day moving average)."

Published on  Thu, May 17 2007, 08:33 GMT

Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, SEB Technical Analysis Team

Wed, May 16 2007, 10:35 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3595) Although one will almost certainly hear that yesterday’s Euro-rally against the dollar was due to bumper Euro zone growth data or even to tame US inflation. But the truth was that the dollar could have been sold at the day’s opening levels one hour after the publication of the second of these data releases. It is also difficult to pin the blame on the US homebuilders survey, which was also weak; market participants have long adhered to the view that the spillover from the sub prime crisis would be limited and that it was anyway priced in. In any case, bond yields rose yesterday, which is hardly indicative of a market that is fretting about slowing growth or ebbing inflation. If anything, market pundits expressed relief that the US seemed not to be on a stagflation path after all – relief that was most vividly expressed by stock operators. Thus, the euro’s surge beyond $1.36 was a purely price-driven affair. Although they had not been particular vocal over the last couple of days, there were significant short positions created during last Friday’s downside false break after all. The very least that one should expect from the false break scenario is a return to the all-time high at 1.3690. However, we will hold out for a little more to the upside and have set our target at 1.3790. The risk-limit to the bullish strategy can be set a little higher than we suggested yesterday, 1.3535, as we reckon with impoverished demand on prices below there.

USD JPY (120.25) One of the most remarkable data releases in Asia this morning was he news of the record jump in capital outflows by Japanese investment funds during the month of April. This development confirms our long-standing view about the resurgence of genuine carry traders. Yesterday, however, although the dollar moved higher, it was unable to overtake 120.55, our bullish trigger. As before, a break there would trigger gains to 123.05. Such a rally would be exploitable using a risk-limit set at 120.10, a level that already marks the first support. To the downside, we also identify demand at 119.10.

EUR JPY (163.55) Our current objective remains at 164.35. Overnight, the Euro rutched out another fractionally higher all-time peak, but it attracted no panic in the market. ndeed, traders are armed with a number of feasible reasons why the cross could be moving higher – from widening growth divergence to Paulson’s planned no-show at the forthcoming G8 meeting. But even though many short-term traders may have jumped on the bandwagon of rising prices in the last two days, we still adhere to the bullish view because we believe that the shrinking volatility is encouraging genuine Carry-flows. We nonetheless keep the downside limit relatively tight (now at 162.65) to reflect the risk posed by the momentum traders.

GBP USD (1.9860) The overnight peak in the Cable was just enough to allow us to enter a new bearish strategy, which now targets 1.9650. No good support is to be expected ahead of 1.9755. The risk-limit to the new strategy is exceptionally tight at 1.9885; our assumption is that a short squeeze has already run its course and that Sterling should go no higher. As a consequence, we would even be ready to turn bullish in the case of a rally beyond 1.9960.

AUD USD (0.8320) The AUD maintains the potential for a modest climb to 0.8390. Supports are now at 0.8290 and at 0.8235 (critical). All price levels mentioned in this report require a 10-pip break to be invalidated

JP MORGAN

EUR/GBP: "Pullbacks are still 3 waves and corrective in nature, with the moving averages providing support on those pullbacks. Positive daily candle structures suggest that we should see an extension to new highs relatively soon."

USD/JPY: "Continues to struggle to clear 120.55 yen resistance with the wedge process showing resistance at 120.90 today. We look a bit toppy up here, so will be watching the RSI for a break down to confirm a slide in this rate is developing back to 119.00."

EUR/CHF: "Pullbacks have been supported by the trending moving averages, with the recent decline a clear ABC correction. We see dips being limited and it should just be a matter of time before we break to new highs and push towards 1.66/1.67."

GBP/USD: "We continue to show basing signs at the bottom of the channel, with yesterday developing an "engulfing" pattern. We will be watching the near term price action closely, but we are potentially building a base for at least a move back towards $2.0000, if not new highs."

SEB TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EURO/DOLLAR: "The trend is up. The down move of late now looks more like a broken flag. A session close above $1.36 would confirm an A-B-C structure to the downside completed and a new high in the pipe. Bids likely placed in the primary support area starting at $1.3565 down to $1.3530."

GBP/USD: "Selling stumbled after eking out a fresh low yesterday and the resulting key-day reversal has put pressure on the high-$1.98s. A closer near/above $1.99 would break back above the monthly average to expose $2.0000 and $2.0070. Support centered on $1.9800."

EUR/JPY: "The trend is still up, confirmed by the highest close on record. Local support building in the $162.70/00-zone and as long as it holds we advise longs for a test of the previous ascending line of support, now at $164.55."

EUR/CHF: "In transition? - Maybe. Buyers responded well and provided decent liquidity below the 22- and 200-day average, but a push above 9.21 is needed to get focus back on the 9.2450 high of late. Below 9.18 we care to think that also 9.16 will see some action."

Published on  Wed, May 16 2007, 10:35 GMT

Societe Generale, JP Morgan

Mon, May 14 2007, 09:37 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR/USD: remains heavy and maintains its focus on the 1.3442 to 1.3402 congestion zone. A break there would open the door toward the 1.3371 area, which marks the 0.382 retrenchment of the 1.2865-1.3683 rise. Only a move above the top of congestion in the 1.3568 area would knock the steam out of the bear.

USD/CHF: has staged a notable recovery from last Monday's 1.2080 low, violating May 2 high at 1.2191. But so far, it has not been able to make much progress beyond this former barrier, still holding below the next important resistance at the 1.2285 April 9 high. Support is around last Wednesday's 1.2142 low.

GBP/USD:has violated support at 1.9771, the 0.382 retrenchment of the 1.9184 2.0134 rise. This exposes the next support at 1.9724, a reaction low from April 11. Mild intraday resistance is around 1.9911 - a small reaction high from last Thursday - but only a move above last week's 2.0000 high would damage the short-run bear move from the mid-April 2.0134 high.

USD/JPY: has established a trading range over the past two weeks from support at 119.06 to resistance at 120.55. Only a breakout from this range would likely establish direction.

AUD/USD: remains choppy, but the latest swing lower formed good support at 0.8230 last Friday's low. It should provide a base for another attempt at the 0.8339-0.8362 congestion zone. Penetration there would clear the way for a run at the 0.8396 April 18 trend high.

USD/CAD: recovery from 1.1005 is showing signs of stalling in front of the 1.1171 last Friday's high. A break of a reaction low from last Wednesday at 1.1040 would clear the way for a run at 1.1005. And further break there would shift the May 31 1.0929 multi-year trend low into the bear's sights.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SOCIETE GENERALE

EUR/USD: "We expect the mid-term rising support line, coming at $1.3440 today, or even the $1.3465/70 support zone, to contain any downward attempt until the pair returns the $1.3670/83 region."

EUR/YEN: "We expect the 163.60 resistance level to contain any additional rise. Then, EUR/JPY should try to reverse downwards. A break below the 159.60 support area is needed to turn the mid-term outlook bearish."

USD/YEN: "Despite last Friday's comeback within the short-term rising channel, we still think there is a downside risk in the near term. A break below the mid-term rising support line, coming at 118.90 today, is needed to consider that the upward correction, started at 115.15 in March, is over."

EUR/GBP: "We expect March's high of 68.67 pence, or even late April's high of 68.43, to contain any extension of the recovery started last Thursday at 67.81. Then, the pair should reverse towards the 67.40/47 support area and the mid-term pullback line, coming at 67.32 today."

TECHNICAL STRATEGY TEAM, JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "After nudging down through channel and moving average support we have rallied pretty strongly back and in an impulsive fashion. We are now either in the start of a move back to new highs, or we are at least going to see another 3 wave rally towards $1.3600/1.3625 before a bigger range."

EUR/YEN: "The pullbacks are clearly corrective and that combined with the impulsive rally from around 161.00 suggests a base for at least a test of the recent highs, if not new highs is going to be seen in the week ahead."

EUR/CHF: "An interesting chart to watch this week as we suggested that a 5 wave structure had completed at the recent highs. If so a deeper correction back towards 1.63 should be expected. However, the impulsive rally (5 wave) from Friday's lows suggests that we should at least re-test the recent highs, if not eek out a new high. Buy the dip."

GBP/USD: "We believe we have miss-timed this market rather than being wrong to be bullish. The next levels of support run from $1.9740, which is a re-drawn channel, with 50 percent Fibonacci support under there at $ 1.9655. Note that the RSI is now moving into the basing zone."

Published on  Mon, May 14 2007, 09:37 GMT

SEB, UBS

Fri, May 11 2007, 08:13 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "Not only did the pair arrive at the outlined $1.3490/00-support, it was also after a while broken. The break has made the pair exit the rising channel since January implying that a possible larger reaction is underway. Unless ending the week above $1.3535, lower levels ($1.3380) to be seen next week."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS

EUR/USD: "Remains under pressure after Tuesday's violation of support at $1.3532 (0.382 of $1.3288-$1.3683). The break of secondary support from $1.3490 (0.236 of $1.2865-$1.3683) to $1.3480 ($1.3629 minus $1.3683-$1.3534) opens the door toward the $1.3442 to $1.3402 congestion zone. Mild resistance is around $1.3568 from Wednesday's high."

USD/CHF: "Has staged a notable recovery from Monday's 1.2080 franc low, violating last week's 1.2191 high. So far though, it has not been able to make much progress beyond this former barrier, still holding below the next important resistance at the 1.2285 April 9 high. Support is around Wednesday's 1.2142 low."

GBP/USD: "With the recovery from Friday's $1.9843 low failing to move above last week's $2.0076 high, GBP/USD has taken out critical support at the $1.9823 breakout high from April 3. Penetration there cleared the way for a run at $1.9771, the 0.382 retracement of the $1.9184-2.0134 rise. Secondary support is around $1.9724, a reaction low from April 11."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY's resuming bull trend has tested the next resistance at 120.54. This is the 0.764 retracement of the 122.20-115.15 decline; a move above it would expose the 121.65 February 22 high. Only a break of Tuesday's 119.52 reaction low
would put the underlying bull trend on hold."

EUR/CHF: "Has been consolidating recent gains, but as long as the 1.6409 franc April 27 support holds, odds will favour an eventual new trend high above 1.6537. The next resistance is the 1.6574 July 1998 synthetic high."

EUR/JPY: "EUR/JPY broke congestive support from 162.44 to 162.20, damaging the underlying bull trend. With the prospects for a new trend high above 163.61 now on hold, the break of 161.89 shifts focus to 161.13. It marks the 0.618 retracement of
the 159.60-163.61 advance."

EUR/GBP: "EUR/GBP's recent choppy action is showing signs of resolving to the downside given the break of the 67.99 May 2 low. However, it would take a break of secondary support at 67.80 to expose the bottom of the two-month-old trading range
at 67.47."

Published on  Fri, May 11 2007, 08:13 GMT

Technical FX, Capital Management, SEB

Wed, May 9 2007, 10:44 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Technical FX

EUR/USD: 1.3490 Next Supports. Recent choppy action turned sour for EURUSD Tuesday, as the decline from the previous day's 1.3629 resistance high violated support at 1.3532 (0.382 of 1.3288-1.3683). This exposes the next support from 1.3490 (0.236 of 1.2865-1.3683) to 1.3480 (1.3629-(1.3683-1.3534)).

USD/CHF: has staged a notable recovery from yesterday's 1.2080 low, violating last week's 1.2191 high; only a sustained move above there would put the underlying bear trend on hold. Even then, only a move above the 1.2285 April 9 prominent reaction high would give us the first confirmation of a bull trend taking hold.

GBP/USD: As long as it stays above the 1.9823 April 3 breakout high, GBPUSD will likely remain in a bullish state. A move above last Tuesday's high at 2.0076 would clear the way for a run at the 2.0134 April 18 trend high.

USD/JPY stalled in front of 120.54 (0.764 of 122.20-115.15), but only a break of the 119.06 May 1 low would undermine the underlying bullish tone.

AUD/USD sharp recovery from Thursday's 0.8170 low is probing resistance at 0.8310, the 0.618 retrenchment of the 0.8396-0.8170 corrective decline. A sustained move above there would clear the way for a run at the 0.8332 to 0.8362 congestion area ahead of the 0.8396 trend high from April 18.

USD/CAD has its sights on support from the May 31 1.0929 major trend low. Nearby resistance is around 1.1082, but only a move above May 2's 1.1145 reactions high would put the bearish tone on hold.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

USD/JPY: "Final leg of the rally may be taking a rising wedge shape but need to clear 120.20 to open push to ideal 120.75 target Below 119.50 reverses”.

EUR/USD: "Current rally have faltered at the $1.3560 level, but as the market clears $1.3590 stay bullish. Below the recent $1.3515 base threatens $1.3415."

USD/CHF: "There is room for a pullback to 1.2150 but the market must lose 1.2130 on this dip to renew decline. As it holds move extends 1.2230."

GBP/USD: "Correction may well be complete with the dip to $1.9860-80 area. However, rally over $1.9920 pivot is needed to confirm or risk $1.9820."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "to work with a near-term 'head & shoulders' formation penciling a possible objective in the high-$1.33s (though for today, below $1.3450 would be a stretch). Local resistance half way up through yesterdays range hardens at $1.3595."

EUR/JPY: "Selling was pronounced through the session after the 162.95 break yesterday. The close was printed off the lows, but was part of the process of correction an intraday stretch. Expect additional selling in the 162.60/90-area to be pronounced. Below 161.90 we initially look for 161.70 & 161.40."

Published on  Wed, May 9 2007, 10:44 GMT

Deutsche Bank

Mon, May 7 2007, 12:28 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR USD (1.3605) Friday’s US non-farm payrolls were not what the euro-bears had been expecting. Although market forecasts had drifted lower since the publication of the ADP prediction earlier in the week – indeed, the derivatives auction more or less called it correctly – the dollar had not weakened. And, given the broad-based nature of the job losses and the downward revisions to previous months’ figures, the jobs report could not even be called ‘neutral’. Rumours during the day that the ECB could pause after the June hike provided them little comfort, especially against a backdrop of a 4.1% wage settlement for some key Germany engineering and metalworkers. As a result, some short-covering had to be done ahead of the weekend. But we doubt that euro-scepticism has receded; there are still very many who believe that a euro-correction is around the next corner.The current target remains at 1.3730. Supply ahead of this objective is decidedly patchy. We do not expect more than renewed shortselling by daytraders on the way up – people who are convinced that a correction is underway, but who missed the opportunity to sell the last time around. Thus, in case the target level is surpassed, a squeeze to as high as 1.3965 would be likely. The downside risklimit, which had been set very tight from the outset, is unchanged at 1.3525. However, even below this level, the euro is unlikely to skid; we note additional good demand slightly lower at 1.3470.

USD JPY (119.90) The current objective remains at 121.50. The dollar had been able to gain some ground during Golden Week but, by the end of the week, had to give back the lion’s share of the advance. Given the sinking volatility, it is probable that some genuine carry-trading has been taking place. The issue now is whether shorterterm players are long already or whether they have been waiting for the end of Golden Week to resume their buying. The downside limit to the bullish view is set tight for the worst case at
119.70. As before, however, we still anticipate good demand at lower levels (118.50/60).

EUR JPY (163.10) The current target remains at 167.35. The cross survived another test of our 162.85 risk-limit on Friday. But it has not been able to distance itself noticeably from this point, and this despite overnight comments from Japanese cabinet minister, Watanabe, to the effect that worries about a carry-trade unwind are overdone.
This behaviour hints that the market may not be bucking this trend.

GBP USD (1.9955) Cable remains in a neutral range whose lower border (not clearly defined) probably lies near 1.9860. For today, one can expect demand on dips at 1.9910. To the upside, the bullish trigger is now at 2.0055. Ahead of there, we reckon with initial supply at 1.9985.

AUD USD (0.8245) The A$ is still in a broadly neutral situation. It must regain the ground beyond 0.8300 to turn bullish (for a target at 0.8530). To the downside, we look for support at 0.8205 and at 0.8150/60.

Published on  Mon, May 7 2007, 12:28 GMT

Deutsche Bank

Fri, May 4 2007, 09:53 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR USD (1.3550) Euro-bearish arguments seemed to be lining themselves up in the market yesterday – much to the satisfaction of the latest generation of sceptics. Some of these arguments were robust, for example, the US non-manufacturing ISM survey which,like its manufacturing counterpart came in better-than-expected. Others, however, appeared to be nothing more than product of a frantic search to justify even lower prices for the single-currency. For instance, the news that one European auto-manufacturer had hedged out several years was treated as bearish news even though, simultaneously, another complained that their results were hurt by the weak dollar. Similarly, despite a recent denial by Garganas, rumours persist that the ECB believes that the strong euro reduces the need for rate hikes. Quite why this issue is proving so controversial is a puzzle: if the trade-weighted value of the euro rises, the zone will import deflationary pressures – the degree is debateable, but the mechanism is clear. The market just seems to want someone at the ECB to say it. The Fed also made it onto the list: the popular view is that Bernanke will stress inflationary risks at the next FOMC meeting The overnight dip has allowed us to step into a new bullish strategy whose risk-limit is set very tight at 1.3525. Even below there, however we still note good demand at 1.3460. The objective is fixed at 1.3730.

USD JPY (120.30) The current objective remains at 121.50. Market participants have expressed some disgruntlement with the weakness of the yen this week. But no fresh opinions emerged yesterday, even though the dollar made some additional gains. On the other hand, the yensellers over the past fortnight have been practically silent, which makes us suspect that genuine carrytraders, i.e. long-term traders, are behind the move. The downside limit to the bullish view is unchanged at 119.70. This was set deliberately tight when we entered the strategy yesterday. However, good demand should still be found lower at 118.50/60.

EUR JPY (163.00) The current target remains at 167.35. The cross printed yet another new alltime high yesterday. But this was greeted by another wave of selling that resulted in a test of our 162.85 risk-limit overnight. As long as this point continues to hold, we will adhere to the bullish view. Intermediate supply however, is now to be expected at 164.15.

GBP USD (1.9875) The UK interest rate bulls probably left the Cable over the course of the week. Thus, even a modest slip in the UK services PMI and good encouraging US data could not coax the Pound too much lower yesterday. We consider it to be in a neutral range and reckon with demand at 1.9830/40 and at 1.9780. Supply is pinned at
1.9980 and at 2.0065 (bullish trigger).

AUD USD (0.8190) The latest comments from the RBA were interpreted by the market as a signal that rates would not be hiked again this year. The sell-off that ensued brought the A$ below our first support, which means that there is now a risk of further deterioration to 0.8150. To the upside, the AUD must now regain the ground beyond 0.8310 to turn bullish (for a target at 0.8530). Earlier resistance however, now stands at 0.8260. All price levels mentioned in this report require a 10-pip break to be invalidated.

Published on  Fri, May 4 2007, 09:53 GMT

ABN AMRO Private Banking, CBCM

Wed, May 2 2007, 10:43 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO PRIVATE BANKING

EUR/USD: "A possible rounding top is in the works and this suggests a correction lower is looming. First intra-day support has already been eliminated and this could tempt sellers to try and take out the more important $1.3544 level. If that snaps then a fall to $1.3490 and as far as $1.3367 could follow. This first hint that the bulls are back comes above $1.3624 but the bigger upside barrier cuts in at $1.3684 and then a projected possible top at $1.3715."

GBP/USD: The uptrend is weakening after $2.0070 again held as resistance yesterday afternoon. Failing to clear it should spark a correction lower to $1.9782 before the bigger uptrend takes off again. On the upside, pushing up past $2.0070 should lead to the elimination of the $2.0133 top. Taking that out will bring a projected possible top at $2.0225 into focus."

EUR/JPY: "The long running uptrend remains perfectly intact and shows no sign of reversing. The next upside obstacle is a projected possible top at 166.60. The first indication that the trend is starting to crumble comes with a break below the tested, upward sloping support line at 162.00. However, only a decline under the last low at 159.50 breaks the trend and could see level slide as low as 154.73."

EUR/GBP: "A small head-and-shoulders top is taking shape and the 68.00 pence support is under pressure. If it snaps then a fall towards 67.60 pence should follow. The key support remains 67.47 pence. Under that calls for a sell-off to at least 66.90 pence. On the upside, resistance starts at 68.43 pence and extends to 68.67 pence. Clearing that gives scope to 69.58 pence."

KAREN JONES, CBCM

EUR/USD: "EUR/USD has stalled at the $1.3665/85 resistance and has reacted back towards trendline support at 1.3533$ and ideally we would like to see it hold (favoured). Failure here would suggest a retest of the $1.3475 break point and if seen, we look for this to hold and provoke recovery. Above here our positive outlook remains entrenched target $1.3750/70. Only a break below $1.3475 (12 year trend line break point) negates."

USD/JPY: "USD/JPY has eroded resistance at 119.85 yen and we would highlight that momentum has yet to confirm the move higher, although the daily RSI is more positive. So technical indicators are giving conflicting signals and for now we will go with the move higher. Immediate upside momentum will be maintained while above 118.19/10 and we look for a move to120.65/70this is considered to be the break point for the 122.15/20 peak."

USD/CHF: "USD/CHF has rallied to its 3 month downtrend at 1.2170/75, with the daily RSI also at trend line resistance; we expect this to provoke initial failure. A break back below 1.2095 is needed intraday in order to alleviate immediate upside pressure and re-focus attention onto the 1.2002 uptrend. Should the downtrend at 1.2175 be eroded (not favoured) this would introduce scope for a deeper retracement to 1.2280/85 near term."

EUR/GBP: "EUR/GBP is easing lower and we would expect to see its 3 month uptrend at 67.89 pence tested, provided this holds the downside (favoured), immediate upside pressure will be maintained. The longer term 100 and 200 day moving averages now located at 67.26/37 pence are starting to rise, oscillators are neutral to positive and we continue to look for gains to the March 68.67 pence high."

GBP/USD: "Sterling has eased back to trendline support at $1.9910. This is reinforced by the $1.9915/January peak and we would expect this to hold and provoke recovery. While underpinned by $1.9910/15 (January high and uptrend) immediate upside pressure will be maintained. We look for a retest of key resistance at $2.0100/35 (1992 peak and previous April 2007 high”.

EUR/JPY: "EUR/JPY is consolidating just below last weeks high of 163.30 yen and while dips hold over 162.40/161.15 (1998 high, 6 week uptrend and 20 day moving average), the market will remain well placed for further gains.

Published on  Wed, May 2 2007, 10:43 GMT

SEB Research Team, Mizuho Corporate Bank, Commerz Bank

Mon, Apr 30 2007, 10:09 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

SEB RESEARCH TEAM

EURO/DOLLAR: "High close but peak volume was sold. The trend points north - no doubt. At the end of the day Friday buyers won the battle, but not without a fight. Peak volume for the day came with the first dive from $1.3680. All-in, the topside remains in focus barring a break below $1.3585."

EURO/YEN: "Should re-test the highs. With Japan closed volumes have been faint it seems, but no real reaction to elevated levels has yet been seen. There is a micro-term bearish divergence, but as long as 162.20/40 provides support, buying on dips (or upper range extensions) seems to be the way to play it."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "The euro is no longer overbought and momentum is steadily if unspectacularly bullish. For this morning expect it to hover around the 9-day average at $1.3611 and gentle upside pressure is maintained while above $1.3583. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at $1.3635/1.3585; stop below $1.3500. Short term target $1.3670/1.3700 and $1.4000 long term.

EURO/YEN: "A very strong weekly close but below 1998's high at 164.00. While below here, and while most yen crosses trade below February's high, we shall tread very carefully indeed. Yen crosses are holding up a lot better than we had expected but we shall still allow for another corrective move lower. Bullish momentum has eased and the euro is very overbought. Implied volatility may increase suddenly from the current 7.00 percent. Strategy: Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 163.00; stop above 163.30. Short term target 161.50, then
160.50."

STERLING/DOLLAR: Trading very neatly despite these very high levels and jitters Thursday/Friday. The pullback towards $1.9800 has done wonders in correcting the overbought situation while keeping bullish momentum strong. Expect consolidation today between $1.9900 and $2.0050. Strategy: Attempt longs at $1.9940/00; stop well below $1.9800. Short term target $2.0000/50".

ANDY HART, ANALYST COMMERZBANK

EURO/DOLLAR: "The euro finally broke its previous $1.3665 major resistance high last week. With longer term weekly momentum continuing to rise, we view the market is embarking a new up phase as the structure remains bullish. The key 9 day moving average value of $1.3615 (current value) is still supporting the daily up trend as a trend following technique. Essentially as long as the market continues to close above here sentiment remains positive for new highs. Today's trade: Longs from dips to $1.3601 raise stop to $1.3585 now and look to cover at $1.3690."

DOLLAR/YEN: "Near term following the failing at the top of the broader range high we continue to look for a test towards the lower end of the markets range (currently located at 118.00) this support area is re-enforced by the 200 day moving average in the same vicinity at 118.07 we therefore have to expect temporary recovery from here. Slightly longer term we are increasingly wary of a dip lower, should support at 118.00/07 be eroded, this would leave the market vulnerable to a further slide back to test its 11 month uptrend currently located at 116.32 ahead of recovery. Today's Trade: Shorts from 119.50 covered half at 119.08 and look to cover remainder at 118.00/07. Stop still at 119.74."

DOLLAR/SWISS FRANC: "Remains fully contained within its shorter term down channel (currently resisting at 1.2183 today). With rallies holding within the ideal 1.2095/1.2125 (minor channel resistance and interweek high) zone last week, we continue to view the bias is to break down and major support now located at 1.1998/2 year up trend is exposed. The risk has increased to break to the downside - the markets longer term 2-year-plus up uptrend looks exposed as weekly momentum remains negative. Failure here will trigger losses to initially test the 1.1880/2006 low and then the 1.1710/Fibonacci support beyond. Today's trade: Short from 1.2075/1.2125, keep stop at 1.2135 for now. Cover half 1.1998 remainder at 1.1920."

STERLING/DOLLAR: " Weekly momentum remains positive in structure and continues to suggest further strength longer term for sterling. The next major resistance area above $2.0100/35 is located at $2.0295 (channel resistance) then $2.0340/35 year Fibonacci retracement then $2.0445 (measured target from recent consolidation phase and the top of the 10 month upchannel). Today's trade: Longs from $1.9915 covered half at $2.0000 (on Friday) raise stop to $1.9915 and cover remainder at $2.0100/135 for now."

Published on  Mon, Apr 30 2007, 10:09 GMT

CommerzBank, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Wed, Apr 25 2007, 10:53 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "We continue to view $1.3665/December 2005 high as exposed (this week) to introduce scope to Elliot wave targets of $1.3770 and potentially for the move to extend towards $1.3945/1.4000."

USD/JPY: "The market... continues to remain fully contained within its broad contracting range boundaries of 117.71 / 119.52 (2 month down trend and 6 week up trend, highlighted). The market still needs to overcome 119.52 to resume upside pressure. Nearer term a neutral to negative tone is applicable."

GBP/USD: Sterling is exhibiting signs of recovery ahead of its key support cluster located at $1.9845/1.9915 (1 month up channel, December 2006 high and previous inter-year January 2007 peak). We reiterate that although daily longer term momentum has yet to confirm the break higher in sterling, weekly momentum is a lot more positive in structure and continues to suggest further strength for sterling. The next major resistance area above $2.0100/35 is located at $2.0235 (channel resistance) then $2.0340/35 year Fibonacci retracement then $2.0445."

USD/JPY: rallied yesterday but failed at interim resistance located at 118.85/119.10. The market therefore continues to remain fully contained within its broad contracting range boundaries of 117.71 / 119.52 (2 month down trend and 6 week up trend, highlighted). The market still needs to overcome 119.52 to resume upside pressure."

USD/CHF: is now considered to have completed its near term correction and formed a minor top at the recent 1.2125 high. We maintain that the market remains fully contained within it shorter term weekly down channel (currently resisting at 1.2225). Near term rallies/corrections are now favoured to ideally remain below 1.2125 ahead of 1.2225."

GBP/USD: Sterling is exhibiting signs of recovery ahead of its key support cluster located at $1.9845/1.9915 (1 month up channel, December 2006 high and previous inter-year January 2007 peak). The daily RSI momentum oscillator has remained in its up trend and is also starting to turn higher again supporting the view that key resistance at $2.0100/35 (1992 peak and previous April 2007 high) are exposed. The next major resistance area above $2.0100/35 is located at $2.0235 (channel resistance) then $2.0340/35 year Fibonacci retracement then $2.0445 (measured target from recent consolidation phase and the top of the 10 month upchannel."

EUR/GBP: is exhibiting signs of ending its long drawn out consolidation phase and looks set to resume it's 3 month up trend. With the market turning higher yesterday ahead of its longer term 100 and 200 day moving averages located at 67.20/40 pence) the daily RSI momentum oscillator has edged higher above its 1 month down trend implying that whilst the market now holds above 67.68 (3 month uptrend highlighted) key resistance at 68.15 pence (1 month resistance line) is exposed. This should ultimately break higher near term and lead to an initial retest of the March 68.67 pence high."

MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "The strongest daily close ever but just under the all-time high at $1.3670; this is not a strong chart level so it is just a matter of time before it get blown away. The euro is overbought and momentum is steadily bullish. For today if we can hold above the 9-day average at $1.3560, upside pressure should increase marginally for another upside push. Attempt small longs at $1.3635, adding to $1.3565; stop below 1.3525. Short term target $1.3670/1.3700 and $1.4000 long term.

USD/JPY: "Hovers below 119.00, in the middle of the Ichimoku 'cloud', between the 9 and 26-day averages and in a surprisingly small range. We shall allow for more work here this morning, then down through the bottom of the formation to 117.00. The RSI is neutral and momentum looks set to turn negative. Note that futures positioning is still a fraction of February's record. Strategy remains unchanged: sell at 18.60/119.00; stop above 119.25. Target 117.65 short term then 116.50."

GBP/USD: "Continues to consolidate surprisingly neatly in a 'flag' formation. This should allow us to get used to trading with a $2 handle yet futures positions are well below December's record. The pound is no longer overbought and bullish momentum is strong. Attempt small longs at $2.0025 but be prepared to add to $1.9900; stop well below $1.9800. Short term target $2.0100 and $2.0500 medium term.

EUR/JPY: "Holding up a lot better than we had expected but below this month's high. We continue caution and we shall still allow for another corrective move lower. Bullish momentum has plummeted and the euro is somewhat overbought. Downside pressure increases if we hold below 161.80 this morning. Attempt small shorts at 1.50; stop above 162.55. Short term target 160.55 then 159.65."

Published on  Wed, Apr 25 2007, 10:53 GMT

Technical FX, Societe Generale, SEB, Capital Management

Tue, Apr 24 2007, 10:58 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Technical FX

EUR/USD: recent setback from the 1.3638 is testing support which runs from 1.3522 (April 16 reaction low) to 1.3504 (0.382 of 1.3288-1.3638). As long as it holds, we'll look for an eventual move above 1.3638 and run toward the 1.3670 all-time high from December 30, 2004.

While USD/CHF struggled above mild resistance at 1.2068, only a move above the 1.2190 reaction high from April 13 would undermine the underlying bearish tone. Until then, our focus will remain on support from 1.1984 February 12 reaction low and the nearby early-December low at 1.1879.

GBP/USD has few nearby external chart points above last Wednesday's 2.0134 high. Internally, the next potential barrier is 2.0230. There, the rise from 1.9591 would equal the distance travelled in the 1.9184-1.9823 preceding rise. Initial support is around last Monday's 1.9941 high.

USD/JPY's recovery from last Thursday's 117.60 low has so far cleared 119.02, the 0.618 retracement of the 119.89-117.60 decline, before reaching 119.04 Monday's high. Upside, a sustained break of 119.04 opens up scope for 119.89, last Monday's high, hence averting pullback beneath 118.22 Monday's low ahead of last's week low at 117.60.

AUD/USD's recent setback broke mild support at the 0.8312 reaction low from last Monday, but only a move below the 0.8233 reaction low from April 12 would put the underlying bull trend on hold in the near run. Until then, we'll keep our focus on the upside, with the next target above the current 0.8396 trend high at the 0.8431 December 1988 former low.

USD/CAD remains heavy after breaking the pivotal 1.1292 (0.618 of 1.0929-1.1878) support, keeping 1.1153 (0.764) in focus. Congestive resistance in the 1.1341 to 1.1345 area should keep a lid on corrective upticks in the near term.

EUR/CHF's recent setback from 1.6467 has held above support at 1.6299, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.6028-1.6467 advance. With hourly momentum indicators bottoming at 1.6320, the resuming bull trend is taking aim at last week's 1.6467 high.

EUR/JPY keeps its overall focus on the upside, as a move above last Friday's 161.96 high would clear the way for a run above the 162.43 trend high from April 16. Solid support formed at last Thursday's 159.60 low.

EUR/GBP is caught between resistance in the 0.6830 (last Monday's high) to 0.6839 (0.764 of 0.6868-0.6747) area and support at 0.6747 (April 3 low). Daily momentum conditions point to eventual bearish resolution.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SOCIETE GENERALE

EUR/USD: "The lower end of the tentative rising channel, coming at $1.3470 today, or even the $1.3520/25 support area, should limit the short-term downside until EUR/USD reverses towards the $1.3670/85 resistance. Once this resistance is broken, EUR/USD should target the $1.4100 region."

EUR/JPY: "As long as the 159.65/70 support area, and consequently the lower end of the rising channel coming at 160.23 today, hold, a rise to the 162.40 high, or even a bit higher, is highly probable."

USD/JPY: "As long as USD/JPY stands above the mid-term rising support line, coming at 117.80 today, we cannot rule out a return to the 119.60/90 resistance area, or even to the upper end of the tentative rising channel, coming at 120.80 today."

EUR/GBP: "We expect the 68.18/29 resistance area to contain any upward attempt until EUR/GBP reaches the 67.40/47 support area. The expected break below the latter should open the way to the 66.90 region."

USD/CHF: "We expect USD/CHF to extend the ST upward correction, started at 1.2005 last Thursday, to the strong 1.2175/80 resistance area. Then, USD/CHF should try to reverse towards the 1.1985/1.2000 support zone."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

USD/JPY: "Near-term directional conviction remains low. Ranges are kept tight to the monthly average and also the 200-day average, and volumes are kept on the low side. Perhaps a break outside 118.20-119.00 can liven it up a little. Big picture slightly tilted to the south."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

EUR/USD: "The dip to $1.3540 may well have been enough and thus look for a run at $1.3635 high short-term en route $1.3665 target. Loss $1.3480 reverses."

USD/CHF: "The sharp short-term reversal from 1.2120 argues for more consolidation and retest of 1.2010. Directly over 1.2120 negates and opens test 1.2220."

GBP/USD: "Although support at $1.9980 continues to hold, the lack of bounce still leaves the risk of a dip to $1.9940. Over $2.0050 opens $1.2220."

Published on  Tue, Apr 24 2007, 10:58 GMT

Deutsche Bank, ABN AMRO, UBS

Mon, Apr 23 2007, 10:06 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3585) Since the euro first flirted with the $1.36 level, market participants have been keeping an ear to the ground for signs that the ECB is unhappy with the development. Commentators reminded us that Trichet described such prices as ‘brutal’ two years ago and, despite historically low levels of FX market volatility in the interim period, some had no doubt been expecting something similar. Instead, comments by policymakers about euro-strength have been very sanguine; some even seemed resigned to dollar weakness and simply indicated their confidence that it would not scupper the eurozone recovery. On Friday, however, euro-sceptics thought that their moment had come: the ECB’s Constancio was reported as saying that the Bank was watching market rates very closely. This news accompanied a move lower for the euro off the day’s high that we suspect was due to renewed selling by short-term traders. But, in terms of verbal intervention, this comment barely registers on the scale. Even Trichet, who spoke at a finance ministers’ meeting over weekend, limited his comments to a remark that dollar strength is in the US interest – a view that he categorised as a quote from the US Treasury Secretary Paulson. The persistent desire of day-traders to try to pick top continues to nourish our bullish view. We even raise the upside target now to 1.3725, where a break would propel the single-currency to 1.3945. The risk-limit for this strategy is still pegged at 1.3525.

USD JPY (118.30) The current objective remains 117.00/10. News of a Japan upgrade by the rating agency Standard & Poor’s was one of the factors attributed to the yen’s resurgence this morning after a rather weak end to Friday’s session. However, as we noted in our last report, traders had been buying dollars in the mid- to high-$118s earlier in the week, which meant that supply had anyway to be expected ahead of 119.05 – the risk-limit to the bearish scenario. The target level remains of critical importance and any violation there would merit further bearishness (115.00).

EUR JPY (160.75) The current objective is at 163.45 (adjusted marginally lower). The singlecurrency also moved lower in the aftermath of the Japan upgrade by S&P. However, it remains stable as long as it holds above 160.20/30, the current risk-limit to the bullish strategy. The critical point to the downside stands at 159.60. Ahead of the target-level, fresh resistance is now to be expected at 162.10.

GBP USD (2.0020) The current objective is unchanged at 2.0370 – a level that also marks the very first reliable supply point. The risk-limit for bullish view stands at 1.9920.

AUD USD (0.8340) We currently reckon with a pursuit of the current near-term consolidation. Only above 0.8390 would we highlight a new bullish potential to 0.8445 (possibly to 0.8545) would be re-opened. To the downside, support at 0.8270/75 is to be considered as critical.

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The upside bias is losing momentum and this could be the start of a correction lower. The confirmation comes below the defended $1.3557 support. If that snaps then a decline to $1.3527 but more likely $1.3488 can be expected. On the upside, resistance remains the $1.3666 all-time-high. Clearing it will give scope to $1.3715."

GBP/USD: "The uptrend is showing signs of exhaustion and looks set to correct lower. Confirmation comes below the defended $1.9985 support. If that snaps then a fall as far as $1.9880 will be the likely result. On the upside, holding above $1.9985 and then pressing up past $2.0069 should give the market reason to attack the top that recently formed at $2.0133. Breaking above that peak calls for an extension up to $2.0225."

AUD/USD: "The market remains hesitant before the US$0.8435 resistance but the uptrend remains intact after new support was established at US$0.8283. As long as that holds then the focus is on a rally past US$0.8435. That, in turn, will leave no clear resistance until US$0.8950 though reaching that extreme could take a number of sessions to be realised. On the downside, a decline below US$0.8283 has potential to send level down to at least US$0.8225."

UBS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EUR/USD: "Continues to narrow the distance toward the 1.3670 all-time high from Dec. 30, 2004. Initial support comes from last Monday's $1.3522 low, but only a break of the $1.3485 to $1.3470 congestion area would damage the bull trend in the near run."

USD/JPY: "(The pair's) recovery from last Thursday's 117.60 yen low is probing mild resistance from 119.04, last Wednesday's high. Only a move above there would signal a reversal of course from 119.89."

USD/CHF: "Only a move above the 1.2190 francs reaction high from April 13 would undermine the underlying bearish tone. Until then, our focus will remain on support from 1.1984 Feb. 12 reaction low and the nearby early-December low at 1.1879”

EUR/GBP: "Caught between resistance in the 68.30 pence (last Monday's high) to 68.39 (76.4 percent retracement of 68.68-67.47 area and support at 67.47 (April 3 low). Daily momentum conditions point to eventual bearish resolution."

GBP/USD: "Has few nearby external chart points above last Wednesday's $2.0134 high. Internally, the next potential barrier is $2.0230. There, the rise from $1.9591 would equal the distance travelled in the $1.9184-1.9823

Published on  Mon, Apr 23 2007, 10:06 GMT

Deutsche Bank

Thu, Apr 19 2007, 08:50 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR USD (1.3590) As the euro inched above the $1.36 level yesterday, short-term skeptics prepared yet another short-selling attack. The reasoning for doing so was not very imaginative: some spoke about the monetary tightening effect caused by the strength of euro (this is a circular argument in any case); many more bemoaned the negative impact of the exchange rate on the sales of European exporters and pointed to the decline in European stock indices on Wednesday as proof that investors were concerned about margins being squeezed. However, investors are not worried about the growth or earnings prospects of eurozone firms. According to surveys of investor sentiment (including one of our own), global fund managers see the zone’s equity markets as one of the most undervalued in the world; the US market, in contrast, is rated as one of the most overvalued. The rally in Germany DAX index, for example, is essentially being driven by international inflows. This could go some way to explaining the euro’s strength in the first place. A correction in the equity markets makes an asset that is already perceived as undervalued even more attractive to these investors and increases the demand for euros. There is no change to our bullish view and our current objective remains at 1.3670. Beyond there, a further squeeze should lift the single-currency to 1.3920. We can again tighten the risk-limit for our bullish strategy today. It should now be set at 1.3525.

USD JPY (117.95) The shaky performance of the Nikkei recently, especially in the light of a marked cooling of international investor appetite for Japanese stocks and bonds, ought not to have been good news for the currency. However, the yen was able to strengthen in this morning’s Asian session – a development that has to be put down to local traders who trade the vague notion of ‘risk aversion’ in the context of carry-trades or who are genuinely squeezed on margin accounts. Thus the broader neutral outlook has not yet durably changed. However, the downside does now appear more vulnerable, especially if the latter explanation is a closer representation of the recent events. Following a bounce to 118.45/55 we would dare a bearish strategy with a very tight risk-limit at 119.05. The target would be 117.10, a level that marks good but critical support. A violation of the latter would in any case merit a bearish approach.

EUR JPY (160.30) The cross has already pushed aside initial supports and could now challenge the best near-term demand at 159.30 (critical). A violation there would merit a bearish strategy. However, we would be prepared to chance a bullish attempt some 40-pips ahead of this point and take advantage of the tight risk-limit.

GBP USD (2.0020) The current objective is unchanged at 2.0370. The risk-limit for this view stands at 1.9920.

AUD USD (0.8300) In FE trading this morning the AUD briefly poked its nose beyond 0.8380 and
then sold off sharply. The consolidation phase looks set to continue further and we note supports
at 0.8295 and at 0.8240 (critical). The first supply point is now at 0.8350.

Published on  Thu, Apr 19 2007, 08:50 GMT

RBS Global Markets, SEB, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Wed, Apr 18 2007, 09:54 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

EUR USD (1.3590) Yesterday’s US CPI number was the catalyst for another short-squeeze in the euro. As mentioned in our last report, many short-term traders currently entertain the idea of trying to pick a top for the single-currency. Their principal motivation for doing so is its proximity to its all-time high, but few like to admit this, especially as there are few other fundamental justifications. Mercifully, this fact might have limited the degree of short-selling and spared some traders some nasty losses. As a consequence the squeeze only lifted the euro some 50-pips higher on the news.However, we doubt that the development has calmed the appetite for short-selling. Still traders claim that the rally has been ‘too far, to fast’. Too fast? The euro is only up 5 percent from its year-low registered in January and implied volatility remains pitifully low. Itspent the three weeks prior to the Easter break in a sideways range. In fact, only in the last six sessions has the EUR/USD even approached the historical averages in terms of price-range. This observation alone reveals the time-horizon of the current sceptics. Our current upside objective remains at 1.3670. This is fractionally above the all-time high – a level where top-pickers are likely to be active. But they will be the only source of supply. Thus, beyond there, a further squeeze should lift the single-currency to 1.3920. To the downside, the risk-limit for our bullish strategy should now be tightened to 1.3505.

USD JPY (118.75) The broad picture is neutral. The risk remains for a push into the low¥120s, but earlier supply is now to be expected at 119.10 and at 119.90. To the downside, the first good supports remain at 118.50/60 (tested overnight) and then only at 117.00 (critical).

EUR JPY (161.35) Speculation about a possible Japanese rate hike suddenly re-emerged yesterday. The euro pummelled the nearby supports but remained upright. For today, we look for demand at 160.70/80 and at 159.00 (critical). To the upside, earlier hurdles have now been erected at 162.05 and 162.50.

GBP USD (2.0095) Objective achieved. More than just the UK CPI at 3.1 percent, it was news that Mr King was obliged to write a letter to Mr Brown that really seemed to grab traders’ attention– even though this doesn’t represent an additional piece of information. Traders seemed to perceive it as a punishment for a humbled BoE governor, like a wayward schoolboy who had been sent to the headmaster’s office. In fact, it was nothing of the sort. Both the letter and the response contained determination to look thorough the near-term volatility in CPI, astonishment that no other letter had been necessary in the last ten years and much mutual back-slapping. Any observer who believed that the BoE would be prepared to do anything to avoid finding itself in such a ‘compromising’ position, as was commonly thought at the time of the last surprise rate hike, might have been startled by the letter’s relaxed tone. As Cable overtook our last objective, we immediately opened a new target at is 2.0370. The risk-limit for this continued bullish view is set at 1.9920.

AUD USD (0.8370) After a brief consolidation the A$ resumed its upswing and easily satisfied the upside room (0.8380) that we allotted to it. This has been the peak so far. Beyond there, the rally could stretch to 0.8465/70. Demand on dips is now likely at 0.8315 and at 0.8225 (critical).

STEVE MERRINGAN, RBS GLOBAL MARKETS

EUR/USD: "The outlook is positive, with local support at $1.3580/55 providing the intraday platform for a run at the $1.3670 December 2004 high (intermediate resistance $1.3635). The underlying interweek outlook will remain constructive whilst support at $1.3425 remains intact, with a breach of the $1.3670 highs alerting to a $1.3810/1.4215 extension of the primary uptrend. Trading strategy: Buy at $1.3560, targeting $1.3800. Stop at $1.3510."

USD/GBP: "Price has extended its rally into the $2.0045/2.0105 long term resistance zone (highs last seen in 1991 and 1992 respectively), which is regarded as the barrier to a direct $2.0315/2.0675 extension of the primary uptrend. Support at $2.0025/15 underpins from an interday perspective, with the bigger weekly support zone located at $1.9940/10. Buy at $1.9975, targeting 2.0275. Stop at $1.9875."

CURRENCY RESEARCH TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "The market most likely has the January 2005 peak (high $1.3666, highest close $1.3633) on the radar screen. Immediate upward pressure to persist as long as $1.3525 holds."
USD/JPY: "The poor price action and the hourly bearish divergence finally took its toll, creating a bearish engulfing candle. We are now focusing on the expected strong support in the 118.20/50-area. If passed a quick drop to 117.50 (and the low 116's) lurks."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Still hovering just under its all-time high at $1.3670 as many only just start viewing the U.S. dollar as very sick indeed. Futures positions are still well below December's peak and will need rebuilding so a scramble at these historically extremely expensive levels is a very real possibility. The euro is overbought but momentum is steadily bullish. Attempt small longs at $1.3565/1.3525; stop below $1.3440. Short term target $1.3670/1.3700."

USD/JPY: "Yesterday's small `bearish engulfing' candle has added just enough downside pressure for a test of the top of the Ichimoku `cloud'. Expect hesitation at this point this morning, maybe all day, but then we still favour a drop to last week's low at 118.22. At-the-money implied volatility should increase again, especially on a break below 118.00. Open interest is well below February's record. Attempt small shorts at 118.75, adding to 119.50; stop above 120.00. Target 118.25 short term, then 118.00."

EUR/JPY: Holding slightly unsteadily below a new record high at 162.43. We are still watching for signs of instability and potential reversal formation at current levels. Proceed extremely carefully using tight stops. Attempt tiny shorts at 161.50/162.00; stop above 162.55. Short term target 161.00 then 160.00.

Published on  Wed, Apr 18 2007, 09:54 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank, SEB

Mon, Apr 16 2007, 08:30 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESEARCH TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD : "Responsive selling likely, but buy dips. In the wake of the post G7 surge in EUR/JPY, the bellwether pair scored a fresh high. But the distance to the monthly average now points at a short-term stretch - which should attract some responsive selling ahead of $1.36. Albeit, dips into (the wide) $1.3500/50-area will be bought."

EUR/JPY: "Decent chance to cover G7 gap. Trading gapped higher after G7, but sellers seem to respond well. Last week's high of 161.45 is an important reference (and already tested), but stretched conditions make believe there is chance to see both 161.25 & 160.80 rechecked before new highs are made."

GBP/USD: "$2.00 - a magnet and an obstacle. Trading happily extended gains throughout last week, scoring the highest weekly close since 1992. With short-term support now centering on $1.98 (overshadowed by intraday support at $1.9865 +/-10pips), it's fair to pencil in a push above $1.9917 (scored mid-January)."

NICOLLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "The strongest weekly close ever and the euro is overbought. For today expect consolidation above the psychological $1.3500 level and below its all-time high at $1.3670. Futures positions are still well below December's peak and will need rebuilding so a scramble at these historically extremely expensive levels is a very real possibility. Attempt small longs on a dip to $1.3525/1.3500; stop below $1.3440. Short term target $1.3580 then $1.3670/1.3700."

USD/JPY: "Small signs of instability but only a sustained break below 118.40 yen adds weight to our view and should cause a drift to 117.50. For this morning expect more slow topping activity in the 119.50 area. Attempt small shorts at 119.40; stop above 119.75. Target 118.50 short term, then 118.00."

GBP/USD: "The strongest weekly close since September 1992 and above the top of the consolidation pattern this year. At-the-money implied volatility looks too low considering we are at levels where there is almost no resistance points. Cable is surprisingly still not overbought and momentum while low is steadily bullish. A test of the key $2.0000 area, where sharp intra-day swings are likely, looks imminent. Attempt longs at $1.9850 but be prepared to add to $1.9750; stop well below $1.9700. Short term target $1.9900, then $2.0100."

EUR/JPY: "Media hype as this pair sets a new all-time high at 162.43; not what we had expected. This morning's `gap' and very overbought is a risky combination. Again we shall watch for instability at current levels this week and the start of another corrective move lower. Possibly attempt tiny shorts at 162.00; stop above 162.55. Short term target 161.00 then 160.00."

Published on  Mon, Apr 16 2007, 08:30 GMT

RBC Capital Markets, Capital Management, Mizuho Corporate Bank

Fri, Apr 13 2007, 10:11 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

RBC CAPITAL MARKETS

USD/CAD: "Technically looks poised to test C$1.1271, following the break of C$1.1355, and a narrowing in the February trade surplus to C$6.0 billion will not stall the sell-off."

CAPITAL MANAGEMENT

USD/CHF: "Pressure on 1.2120-30 francs support has been absorbed thus far. Minor upside break of 1.2180 francs should stabilise for start of a new rally. Stop at 1.2120."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "The euro is a little overbought as it nudges above the psychological $1.3500 level and close to its all-time high at $1.3670. Futures positions are still well below December's peak. A weekly close above $1.3500 should add considerable upside momentum."

USD/JPY: "Tiny signs of topping against 119.50 yen but still inconclusive as we trade above the Ichimoku `cloud'. Only below 118.40 adds a little weight to our view and should cause a drift to 117.50."

GBP/USD: "Testing major long term resistance and we all know where it is for cable. It is not overbought and momentum while low is steadily bullish. A weekly close above $1.9800 essential to set up a test of the key $2.0000 area where sharp intra-day swings are likely."

EUR/JPY: "Moving sideways in a small range but no clear signs of topping which we currently favour. Again today we shall watch for instability at current levels and the start of another corrective move lower. The euro is still overbought against the Yen and at-the-money implied volatility at the lower end of the norm for the last five years. Support at 160.18 yen, resistance at 160.88 yen."

Published on  Fri, Apr 13 2007, 10:11 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank, SEB Technical Analysis Team

Wed, Apr 11 2007, 12:37 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "The highest daily close this year may add a little more upside pressure. At-the-money implied volatility might pick up a little further, especially if we trade above $1.3500."

EUR/JPY: "Nudging slightly unconvincingly to a new all-time high at 160.16 yen and the euro is overbought. We will proceed very cautiously as we had not expected it to move this high so soon after March's corrective drop. Very strong weekly closes in many yen crosses would force us to change our short term outlook where we continue to favour consolidation rather than rallies."

GBP/USD: "Creeping back up towards major long term resistance yet again and Cable is certainly not overbought. Expect another upside push this week with a weekly close above $1.9800 essential to set up a test of the key $2.0000 level."

USD/JPY: "Little to add as we hold in a surprisingly small trading range. Yet again today we shall be watching for signs of topping, noting that implied volatility has eased considerably, and that futures positions have not yet been rebuilt. Below 118.40 yen adds a little weight to our view and should cause a drift to 117.25."

SEB TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EUR/JPY: "With stretched conditions (divergences), the 1998 triple top area (160-164 yen) on top and an upcoming G7 meeting, the risk of a setback is rapidly increasing. Watch out if/when returning below 159.50."

EUR/USD: "As the pair yesterday reached a fresh high, completing what appears to be a five wave advance from $1.3339, the risk for today lies with a setback into the $1.3383/3410 Fibo support zone. Also growing bearish divergences is a cause for concern."

Published on  Wed, Apr 11 2007, 12:37 GMT

Mizuho Corporate Bank, Commerzbank

Wed, Mar 28 2007, 10:16 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICALS-Forex market outlook and key levels

Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market:

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD : "Understandably trading cautiously as we hold close to all-time highs. The Euro is not overbought and appears to be stabilising above the long term chart level around 1.3250 Implied volatility is likely to pick up if we start holding above $1.3300 and is we squeeze above 1.3400. Attempt small longs at $1.3350 but only if prepared to add to $1.3280; stop well below $1.3250. Short term target 1.3400 then $1.3500."

USD/JPY: "Dropping to 117.00 as expected and should try and hold above here this morning. Rallies will probably be capped at 118.00 and then we favour a drop to the bottom of the ‘triangle' at 116.65 today (116.78 tomorrow). Note that the US
dollar is not oversold and that bullish momentum has disappeared completely.Attempt shorts on a bounce to 117.65/118.00; stop above 118.55. Short term target 117.00 then 116.65."

GBP/USD: "Holding slightly unsteadily above the top of a terribly thin Ichimoku `cloud'. No wonder really as we trade at some of the highest levels ever. Expect consolidation at current levels. Only a weekly close clearly above $1.9800 will add enough bullish pressure for a serious test higher. Attempt longs at $1.9635; stop well below $1.9550. Short term target $1.9700/1.9750 then be extremely careful."

EUR/JPY: "More small signs of topping between 157.50 and 158.00 with yesterday's small `shooting star/spike high'. We continue to forecast a drop in prices back down to 155.00 short term and probably 152.50 further out. Attempt shorts on a bounce to 157.40, adding to 157.75; stop above 158.10. Target 156.00 then 155.25."

KAREN JONES, COMMERZBANK

EUR/USD: "The Euro outlook remains unchanged, we remain wary of current moves higher as we continue to view the market as range topping. While above $1.3255 (Feb peak) however it is possible that we may see further attempts on the topside very near term, we expect these to remain tepid at best. The market continues to exhibit signs of failure ahead of $1.3475, its 12 year downtrend note the longer term momentum has not confirmed the recent move higher. A break back below 1.3255 however is required to alleviate upside pressure and re-focus attention onto the $1.3090/50 month uptrend (favoured). Longer term this is a critical junture, whilst the market remains capped by $1.3475 our longer term neutral to bearish scenario is still maintained. Today's trade: Sell on rallies to $1.3410/50 and place stops over $1.3500. Cover on dips to $1.3090."

USD/CHF: "USD/CHF has failed near term at its short term downtrend at 1.2225 currently. Very near term while capped here, the market remains vulnerable to stabs lower. However moves lower are expected to remain well supported on dips to 1.2045/1.1965 (short term uptrend and 2 year uptrend) as technical indicators remain neutral to positive. A close above the downchannel at 1.2225 is required to alleviate downside pressure and signal a more concerted effort on the topside towards initially the 200 day moving average at 1.2355 and then the longer term downtrend at 1.2460. Todays trade: Long 1.2085, add on dips to 1.2045 stop below 1.2030. Cover at 1.2225 for now."

GBP/USD: "Sterling has basically consolidated sideways for the past 4 days leaving our immediate outlook unchaged we remain wary of further advances and expect the market to fail as it tests tougher resistance at $1.9806/1.9915) near term channel and recent peak). We continue to hold a neutral to negative bias. Should failure be seen as expected, we look for the market to ease back to support at $1.9485/1.9555. A break below here is required to once again focus our attention on the bottom part of the range and in particular the 9 month uptrend at $1.9200.

Published on  Wed, Mar 28 2007, 10:16 GMT

BNP PARIBAS, SEB MERCHANT BANKING

Mon, Mar 26 2007, 10:13 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market:

CLAUDE MATTERN, BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "Former resistance line at $1.3240 (and 50 percent retracement), seen as a strong support. Below that level, the next key level is at $1.3170 (support line of a short term bullish channel). The daily indicators are supportive on their zero level The hourly ones are neutral... The exchange rate is seen between 1.3240 and 1.3290, before rebounding towards $1.3340."

EUR/GBP: "Below 67.93 pence, is seen testing support towards 67.57, seen as a major point. Resistance is at 67.75 .A rebound is expected later on, n direction of 68.09."

GBP/USD: "Doing a slight retreat, after resistance at $1.9730. The currency pair is approaching a key support at $1.9555. The daily indicators are neutral, above zero. The hourly ones are around zero, suggesting some support. The exchange rate is seen between $1.9555 and $1.9610, before a rebound towards $1.9650 (below $1.9555, the next main support is
at $1.9505."

USD/JPY: "Still testing resistance around 118.20 yen, with the bullish break level at 118.50 (above the latter, the next target is at 118.90, before 119.70). Resistance
is expected before a return towards 117.40."

SEB MERCHANT BANKING

EUR/USD: "Early Asian trading has taken care of assumed under $1.3270 sell-stops. A small gap fill may well occur in early European trading, but expect additional selling near $1.33. A lower range extension (violation below the range set during the first hour of trade) would take aim at the low 1.32s."

EUR/CHF: "Clear difficulties to maintain above1.62 francs is likely to upset some longs. (Swissie shorts further trimmed according to CoT data.) A push through 1.6160 would likely add another 50 pips worth of move south to re-test the March 20 low of 1.6110."

EUR/YEN: "The pair looks to have topped out. While holding below 157 yen the micro-term picture favors a move below 156 and later opening up for extension towards the March 20 low of 155.60."

Technical

EUR/USD bull trend remains intact and only a break of the 1.3270 (Tuesday's reaction low) to 1.3261 (February 27 high) congestion zone would damage it. Until then, we'll keep our focus on this week's 1.3412 high and then the 1.3481 March 11, 2005 high. Corrective action from the 1.2029 trend low keeps USDCHF focus on Wednesday's 1.2076 reaction low. A break there would expose the 1.2029 trend low from last Friday. Only a move above congestive resistance from 1.2217 (March 15 reaction high) to 1.2232 (0.618 of 1.2357-1.2029) would damage the bear trend.

GBP/USD remains positive following the push through last Friday's 1.9506 high and the 1.9517 February 28 low. The rally is now approaching resistance at the 1.9749 February 2 high. Mild support is around 1.9555, Wednesday's low. USDJPY continues its choppy consolidation phase, but as long as the 118.50 (March 12 high) to 118.98 (February 16 low) resistance band holds, we will keep our focus on the downside. A break of 115.76 and the 115.55 March 7 reaction low would clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from March 5.

AUD/USD underlying bull trend has little resistance until the 0.8212 December 1996 high. Meanwhile, near term support zone from congestion is located in the 0.7948 to 0.7936 area. USDCAD's short-term bear trend has room toward congestive support from 1.1460 (July 24 high) to 1.1430 (December 20 reaction low). A break there would being to sour longer-term trend conditions. Wednesday's 1.1635 reaction high marks resistance for now.

EUR/JPY 155.58 Support. EURCHF cleared the 1.6201 March 12 high, shifting focus away from a run through 1.6028 (March 14 reaction low), and instead exposing the 1.6291 big trend high from February 22. EURJPY cleared 156.24 (0.618 of 159.66-150.71) and is now testing the 157.30(March 1 high) to 157.55 (0.764 of 159.66-157.55) resistance cluster. Next is the 159.28 reaction high from February 26, followed by the nearby 159.66 trend high from February 22. Support is around 155.58, the March 20 reaction low. Stalling upward momentum had the EURGBP bull trend in a vulnerable state and the break of mild support at 0.6819 from March 14 gives us the first confirmation of a reversal. The selloff is now testing the 0.6769 March 12 reaction low. We have an open short recommendation at 0.6810 with a 0.6690 target and a 0.6870 stop.

Published on  Mon, Mar 26 2007, 10:13 GMT

ABN AMRO, JP MORGAN

Thu, Mar 22 2007, 12:11 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The market popped higher yesterday and the $1.3370 resistance was taken out. This brings $1.3482 into focus as well as the $1.3666 all-time high. Solid support remains the defended $1.3275/60 but ideally the market will hold above $1.3341. If the now crucial $1.3260 were to fail as support, then a fall to the upward sloping line at $1.3200 could occur before a new base builds."

USD/JPY: "Momentum remains low as the consolidation phase continues. That being said, the bulls are still holding on to their slight advantage. Holding above the new upward sloping support line at 116.25 yen should tempt buyers to take out the key intra-day 119.00 barrier. Breaking above it will open the way to 119.50 and more likely 120.55 before any decline occurs. Support starts at 116.25 and extends down to 115.15. If that snaps then a fast fall to 114.44 can be expected."

EUR/GBP: "First support snapped and prices have entered a downward correction phase. The next support area is the 67.58 pence handle. At that point a limited bounce to 68.42 could occur, that would be the signal that a head-and-shoulders top has formed and will likely be the start of a new sustainable downswing with room to at least 66.44. On the upside, pushing past 68.42 shifts the focus back up to the recent 68.67 high."

GBP/USD: "The bulls continue driving level high and their next challenge cuts in at a series of tops in the hourly chart that coincide with the last upside Fibonacci level at $1.9750. At that point selling might start again. On the downside, the first sign that the upswing is unwinding comes with a break below $1.9555. If that happens then a decline to at least $1.9385 can be expected."

EUR/JPY: "The bulls are challenging is a Fibonacci level at 157.73 yen. It could be a place where a dip lower kicks in but so far there is no clear sign of any reversal. Breaking above that level opens the way to the 159.64 all-time-high. On the downside, only slipping under the defended 154.73 support ends the upward bias. If that were to give way then a fall to 152.10 can be expected."

JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "Prices have broken through $1.3367 prev high, after extending the break of $1.3260. $1.3340 to $1.3305 is the important support to watch today."

GBP/USD: "Our real worry is that the move back to $1.9250/1.9200 completed the "abc" correction from $1.99 and we are now heading back into the underlying trend. $1.95 and then $1.9435 are the key supports on a daily basis in this regard, while we will be watching the near term levels in the euro/dollar above for the sessions ahead."

EUR/GBP: "The decline from 68.60 pence looks to be the start of a correction back towards 67.00. Key resistance on the day is 68.20, while a break of 67.70 should trigger that decline."

Published on  Thu, Mar 22 2007, 12:11 GMT

SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK, LBBW, CBA London

Wed, Mar 21 2007, 12:25 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Euro heading for resistance at $1.3350

Following is a selection of comments from analysts on important technical developments in the foreign exchange market:

ALI ASGHAR, SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK

EUR/USD: "Prices are challenging a pivotal resistance between $1.3340/70, and below this obstacle a corrective dip to $1.3290 is on the way. Daily technical models are showing extreme overbought conditions; setting up ideal conditions for a corrective dip at some point today. From the short to medium term perspective, the strong bullish candlestick pattern last week hints at more rallies in coming weeks. Having said that, a corrective dip to $1.3250 is in store. If this support remains intact during the week additional rallies are likely on the radar screen."

GBP/USD: "Cable staged a solid recovery after holding $1.9220 support last week for the second time during the month. Prices are close to test the 61.8 percent Fibonacci resistance of January- March decline at $1.9640. Extreme overbought situation on daily charts suggest a rejection of 1.9640 resistance and a dip to 1.9560/30 base. From the short-medium term perspective, cable is likely to consolidate the recent losses. Cable is going to challenge a solid resistance around $1.9640, which if cleared swiftly then, additional rise to $1.9780 is on the way."

JUERGEN MEYER, LBBW

EUR/USD: "We are on the way up to $1.3350 still and an hourly close above that will call for $1.3550 later on. Only hourly close below $1.3250 will be a sign of exhaustion and will lead to $1.3150/10 again."

USD/JPY: "As long as we stay above 116.20 yen hourly close we have a valid chance to start a rally to the target at120.50 ahead of 122.50."

USD/CHF: "We broke below 1.2280 francs on a daily close and so we are on the way south to 1.1980 now and only hourly close above 1.2350 will reverse north again."

EURO/STERLING: "Broke below 68.05 pence again so we have to be aware of further losses down to 67.50 before a new leg up might start."

CBA London

ECONOMICS 21 Mar. 07
• Fed may downgrade growth outlook but should retain tightening bias.
• Financial markets continue to shorten the odds of a near-term rate rise from the RBA.

Looking ahead: The US FOMC decision and statement later this evening (18:15 GMT) is the near-term focus formarkets. The FOMC will likely leave the fed funds rate at 5.25%. But what the accompanying statement will say exactlyis less certain. The risk is that the market perceives the statement as more dovish. In January, the FOMC said that “recent indicators suggested somewhat firmer growth”. But since the January meeting, US data have been mixed, with weather effects creating distortions. So there is a risk the Fed will be less bullish on growth. Consensus is that the statement will be in line with December’s slightly softer statement. There is a small risk that the Fed will allude to subprime sector problems. If the statement indeed makes a mention of the sub-prime sector and echoes Greenspan's recent comments that there could be ripple effects through the rest of the economy, then the USD will likely be hit hard and Treasuries will rally. However, against the backdrop of still sticky core inflation measures, we favour the Fed retaining its tightening bias by judging "that some inflation risks remain". In the UK this morning we receive the Bank of England’s meeting minutes and the Chancellor delivers his Budget speech at 12:30 GMT. More importantly for UK markets, however, will be tomorrow morning’s retail sales data. An upside surprise would reinforce the view for a Q2 rate hike, particularly after yesterday’s higher than expected February CPI.Bonds/Credit: The Australian bond market opened higher, but selling kicked in and was the theme for much of the morning session. 10-year yields touched a high of 5.8090% while 3-years reached 6.3090%. Profit taking in equities and perhaps some short-covering ahead of the FOMC later tonight saw the market better bid through the afternoon session. Financial markets continue to shorten the odds of a near-term rate rise from the RBA. Markets had priced in less than a 30% chance of a rate rise from the RBA at the end of last week, but today that probability moved to as high as 56%. In addition, some market commentators now believe the RBA will hike in April. We believe that there is always a tendency to overanalyse the RBA's words. Indeed the RBA does appear a little more upbeat on the economic activity front, but much of the rate rise story rests on the addition of the "month by month" comment added by Edey in last week’s speech to the usual declaration about reviewing the implications of incoming data for the inflation outlook. In some ways that comment just re-states the Bank's existing tightening bias. It may be just a shot across the bows of financial markets that had got a little complacent about inflation risks (the market was pricing in some odds of a rate cut this year as recently as early March). The key “monthly" activity data to watch remain the unemployment rate and credit growth. A continued downtrend in the unemployment rate and a lift in credit growth would be the signals for an imminent rate move. We think the case for a rate rise looks incomplete. May would be "live" if the Q1 CPI (due 24 April) is on the high side. But we don't expect that sort of CPI surprise. So at this stage our forecast remains "no change". The activity-unemployment credit story needs some time to develop so June/July look to be the earliest possibility for a move on that basis.

FX: The AUD made fresh 10-year highs, rising to an intraday high of US$0.8042. There was some profit taking, but the dips have been reasonably shallow with the AUD finding a firm base in the high US$0.79's. We continue to think some pullback and correction may be ahead, given the extent of the recent rise. But we maintain that the AUD will remain on an upward trend and may even strike to as high as the US$0.8200-0.8250 area before the middle of the year. The rise in yields at the short end is helping underpin the AUD's rise. It is unlikely that the FOMC’s statement tonight will alter the current consensus view that Fed rate cuts will be forthcoming later this year. So it is also unlikely to give sustained support to the USD. All up the risks seem to a further sell off in the USD. Since the time the US Federal funds rate has neared its peak of 5.25%, the USD has generally depreciated in the day after its decision and statement. Perhaps the only factor that might give some upward momentum to the USD is if the Fed dismisses housing and sub-prime concerns.

Stocks: US share markets rose on Tuesday, investors broadly encouraged by the latest housing data while takeover activity drove gains in the technology sector. European sharemarkets were generally higher, as were Asian stocks on Wednesday. The ASX 200 fell 0.25% on concern over the prospect of further rate hikes. Commodities: US crude oil prices were mixed on Tuesday. Investors were awaiting the latest weekly US inventory data while there were differing views on the outlook for the global economy. Base metal prices were again mixed, while the price of gold rose in response to stronger physical demand and fund buying. Economic Developments $-Bloc (US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) US

• US housing starts were stronger than expected in February at 1,525,000 (versus consensus of 1,450,000), rebounding from a weak January which was negatively impacted by bad weather effects. This followed two solid monthly gains which were driven by milder than usual weather. Weather is still likely having an impact at the margin. It will take another few months’ worth of data to get a clear read on the market but the underlying trend appears to be one of stabilizations. Building permits were weaker than expected at 1,532,000, remaining close to recent lows. We believe the Fed will retain the funds rate at 5.25% throughout 2007. Canada

• The Canadian CPI surged 0.7% in February against expectations of a 0.3% increase. The annual rate jumped up to 2.0% from 1.2%. The Bank of Canada’s core rate, which excludes the impact of tax changes, rose 0.5% over the month and 2.4% on an annual basis. Gasoline (+3.8%) and food (+1.5%) prices added to the upside in the headline increase, while clothing, shelter and recreation all boosted the core increase. Some of the upside was driven by seasonal or temporary factors, but at the margin the data reinforce that inflation pressures remain and there is little scope for rate cuts in the near term from the Bank of Canada. The Bank of Canada looks set to retain interest rates at 4.25% for some time. Growth is slowing but capacity constraints remain.

Australia:
We think that 6.25% will prove to be the peak in the cash rate in the current cycle. But decisions will remain data dependent.

New Zealand:
We think the OCR will be retained at 7.50% for some time but see a reasonable risk of further tightening.

Europe:
We think the ECB will deliver a further rate hike in Q2, bringing the key policy rate to 4.0%.

UK:
• The UK CPI surprised on the upside in February, lifting 0.4% against expectations of +0.3%. This resulted in an acceleration in the annual rate to 2.8% from 2.7%. A lot of the upside stemmed from the transport component on the back of a new air duty. Nonetheless, the Bank of England is unlikely to be comfortable with the pick up in the annual rate. Additionally, the annual rate of the retail price index, which is generally used for wage settlements, accelerated to 4.6% from 4.2%. The data reinforce our view that the
Bank of England will take out “insurance” against upside inflation risks in the form of a further 25bp rate hike in Q2. The risk to UK rates is to the upside in the near-term.

Japan:
Further tightening of monetary policy will continue in Japan. But the process will be gradual.

Economic Preview

US
Wednesday 21 March, 18:15
US FOMC rate decision, (f) 5.25% ,The FOMC minutes from the January 30-31 meeting showed no change in the Fed’s stance and we expect the same in March, in spite of the recent bout of risk aversion and market volatility. The Fed still sees a gradual decline in inflation as the most likely outcome going forward, but doesn’t yet see that trend as “definitively established”. It remains firmly on inflation watch, with recent rhetoric still very hawkish. The Fed’s Beige Book said that several districts were still expanding, but that growth had generally slowed. Labour markets remain tight and wage pressures increased slightly, although remain generally moderate.

Canada
Wednesday 21 March, 12:00 ,CA Retail sales, Jan (f) -0.1% Canadian retail sales were much stronger than expected in December, rising by a super strong 2.3% against the expectation of 1.0%. It was the strongest monthly gain in nine years. Annual growth accelerated to 6.7%. Strong car sales and rising gasoline prices boosted overall sales, but ex-auto monthly growth was also strong at 2.0%. The strength followed a weak period between September and November, with September and October both having seen pretty big falls. Some payback is expected in January, with more moderate growth expected.

Published on  Wed, Mar 21 2007, 12:25 GMT

UBS, SEB

Tue, Mar 20 2007, 10:57 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS

EUR/USD: "The bull trend from $1.2865 remains intact with little resistance till the broader trend extreme at $1.3368 set back in early December. Intraday support is around $1.3260."

USD/CHF: "Break of last Wednesday's 1.2103 low exposes the 1.1981 Dec. 12 low, and there's little support below there till the 1.1879 Dec. 5 extreme. Resistance is at 1.2217, the March 15 high."

GBP/USD: "Remains positive following the push through last Monday's $1.9435 high and $1.9487 Fibonacci potential barrier. This clears the way for a run at the secondary resistance around $1.9517, the low from Feb. 28. Mild support is around last Wednesday's $1.9375 high."

USD/JPY: "Continues its choppy consolidation phase, but as long as the 118.50 (March 12 high) to 118.98 (Feb. 16 low) resistance band holds, we will keep our focus on the downside. A break of 115.76 and the 115.55 March 7 reaction low would clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from March 5."

EUR/CHF: "Key resistance is located at 1.6201, the March 12 high. As long as it holds, odds will favour a run through 1.6028 and toward the 1.5931 March 5 low."

EUR/JPY: "Clears the 156.24 area, which marks the 0.618 retracement of the 159.66-150.71 decline and a move above this resistance, would take our focus away from 152.65 and then the 150.71 March 5 low. A sustained break of 156.24 would instead open 157.30, the March 1 high."

EUR/GBP: "Stalling upward momentum has the EURGBP bull trend in a vulnerable state and we are on the lookout for a confirmation of a top. We have a pending short recommendation at 68.10 with a 66.90 target. Note that we will remove this trade if the 68.70 stop level prints first."

TECHNICAL STRATEGY TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "The pair is running late in the current advance but still lacks any real signs of exhaustion. Also the slow slide from Friday's high look corrective, thus one more high should be seen. Buyers should be found primarily in the $1.3240/75-area."

EUR/JPY: "If the current advance should continue to be counted as a correction the market should turn around towards the upper end of the potential bear flag. Thus a sustained move above 157.70/80 will hurt a bearish sce

Published on  Tue, Mar 20 2007, 10:57 GMT

Deutsche Bank, TRENDSETTER FINANCIAL MARKETS, SEB MERCHANT BANKING

Mon, Mar 19 2007, 12:17 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3290) Friday’s surge to a 1.3340 peak was nothing more than a product of the scepticism that surrounded the euro over the first four days of last week. In the midst of the subprime woes, and the Greenspan recession warnings, traders were reluctant to view the US economic developments in any context other than that of the carry-trade. As the dollar steadily weakened, short-term players were tempted to play the range, which meant selling the single-currency near the $1.32-level. Although there has been an obvious squeeze in the meantime, the protagonists have not become openly bearish on the dollar. But this is not because they are unconvinced that this is a strictly US problem or that they believe that the worst is behind. On the contrary, the language of the doommongers has been the most colourful and the most salient. As is so often the case, it is the absolute price level – this time the euro’s proximity to its 2006 high (1.3365) – that seems to be more important in the decision-making. Thus it may well be that fresh euro-shorts are currently being created and that these could be the fuel for the next squeeze. Once again, we look for day-trader selling to push the euro at least moderately lower. Following a dip to 1.3260 we would open a bullish strategy for a target at 1.3390. Beyond this higher level, the door would even be open for gains to 1.3590. Once triggered, we would set the risk limit at 1.3210.

USD JPY (117.25) The dollar was actually much lower this morning; it opened in Asia in the low ¥116s, apparently as a reaction to the weekend’s rate hike in China (although this move was not totally unexpected). But the gap appears to have been treated as a buying opportunity by day-traders, who have subsequently hoisted it back to the current levels. They now comfort themselves with the convenient belief that the BoJ will find no need for a further rate-hike or for any hawkish comments at the upcoming meeting. As before, we see the current buyers as essentially short-term players and not genuine carry-traders. Thus, in the event of prices rising as high as 118.90, we would opt rather for a bearish strategy with a risk-limit set at 119.45. The first upside hurdle stands at 118.10 for today. Supports are at 115.90 and at 115.10/15.

EUR JPY (155.90) The euro’s development versus the yen this morning was similar to that of the dollar, except that here the price has already been able to go beyond last week’s high to a 156.15 peak. Although we note potential supply points, at 156.35 and at 157.40, as well likely demand levels at 154.80 and at 152.95, none of them is sufficiently strong or reliable to be the basis for a meaning strategy.

GBP USD (1.9400) Following a brief flirtation with our 1.9510 resistance on Friday, the Pound fell back a big-figure. This point remains the trigger point for gains to 1.9840 but we must now expect it to be weaker on a subsequent test; the first good supply point is at 1.9615. To the downside, look for demand at 1.9265.

AUD USD (0.7955) The risk for gains to as high as 0.8140 is now apparent. To satisfy the riskreward criteria for a bullish strategy, however, a dip to 0.7920 is necessary. The downside limit would then be set at 0.7900.

TRENDSETTER FINANCIAL MARKETS

EUR/JPY: "Euro's retreat after intra-day rally to 156.35 suggests further consolidation below there would be seen. But reckon 155.60/70 would limit downside and yield another rise. Above said resistance is needed to confirm recent upmove has once again resumed."

USD/CHF: "Although current break of minor resistance at 1.2086 francs suggests near-term rise from Friday's 1.2030 low to retrace recent decline may extend marginally. Reckon 1.2103/09 (previous support) would limit upside and yield retreat. Below 1.2047 would extend weakness to 1.2020. Sell on further recovery."

EUR/GBP: "Despite euro's retreat after testing 68.67 pence resistance in Asia, as long as 68.36/40 holds, the recent upmove should resume. Above said resistance would confirm and yield further subsequent gain to 68.85/90 pence before prospect of a correction later."

SEB MERCHANT BANKING

EUR/USD: "Trading is resting after noting strong gains Friday. This week's opening seems cautious at new highs, but dips into Friday's mid-range area or the previous breakout level should attract buyers. Above $1.3340, the $1.3365 key reference will be exposed."

USD/JPY: "The pair was bought higher after gapping lower at the open. This does not change the short-term outlook, thus should the rally be sold again. Watch if the market respects 117.80 yen and place shorts there. A move above 118 would be worrisome, and a 118.50 is NOT wanted."

GBP/USD: "Failure to maintain the 62 percent Fibonacci reference on Friday may spill over into fresh initiative selling. Watch any "lower range extension" this morning and later erosion below $1.9360. If so shorts with a $1.9445 stop look like a decent play."

USD/CAD: "Friday's break to a fresh yearly high should lead to continued buying today. The next target is located around US$0.8050 (just above the 2006 top, US$0.7983)."

Published on  Mon, Mar 19 2007, 12:17 GMT

UBS, MERRILL LYNCH

Mon, Mar 19 2007, 02:51 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

UBS

USDJPY 118.50 resistance.

EURUSD maintains an upward path from the 1.3072 March 5 low, recently moving to within striking distance of the 1.3261 February 27 high. The next resistance is the 1.3298 January 2 prominent reaction high. Support is currently in the 1.3177 to 1.3155 area, congestion from recent reaction lows.

USDCHF probed the 1.2108 March 5 but bottomed just five pips below it. While the overall bearish theme remains intact, last week's 1.2357 high must keep a lid on the current recovery. An initial resistance cluster is in the 1.2260 (0.618 of 1.2357-1.2103) to 1.2263 (small congestion high from Tuesday) area.

Monday's 1.9435 high marks resistance for GBPUSD, which should cap the upside for the short run. Solid support is runs from Wednesday's 1.9212 low to the 1.9184 March 5 low.

While the underlying trend remains bearish for USDJPY, the recent recovery from 115.76 suggests that further consolidation is in order. As long as the 118.50 (March 12 high) to 118.98 (February 16 low) resistance band holds though, we'll keep our focus on the downside. A break of 115.76 and the 115.55 March 7 reaction low would clear the way for a run at the 115.15 trend low from March 5.

AUDUSD's recent recovery aims a sustained clearance of 0.7886 to 0.7896 congestive resistance area again. Only a clear break above 0.7948, Feb 27 high confirms bullish strength, and a relapse of Tuesday's 0.7798 reaction low would reverse this pair to the downside.

USDCAD continues to hold above support at 1.1664, the 0.618 retracement of the 1.1564-1.1827 rise. Only a break there would damage the underlying short-term bull trend and shift focus away from the 1.1827 trend high from March 5.

EURGBP fragile for 0.6690.

EURCHF recent recovery from Wednesday's 1.6028 low has tough resistance at Monday's 1.6201 high. As long as it holds, odds will favour a run through 1.6028 and toward last week's 1.5931 low.

EURJPY's recent recovery from 152.65 is holding below resistance at 156.00 so far. Secondary resistance is in the 156.24 area, which marks the 0.618 retracement of the 159.66-150.71 decline. Only a move above there would take our focus away from 152.65 and then the 150.71 March 5 low.

Stalling upward momentum has the EURGBP bull trend in a vulnerable state, shifting our focus lower. We have a pending short recommendation at 0.6810 with a 0.6690 target. Note that we'll remove this trade if the 0.6870 stop level prints first.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, MERRILL LYNCH

USD/JPY: "Directional tone defensive into April, but near term resilience will probably deny resolution of the 115.00-119.00 consolidation range for the time being."

Published on  Mon, Mar 19 2007, 02:51 GMT

ABN AMRO, LBBW

Wed, Mar 14 2007, 12:35 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

STEVEN WESIAK, ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The bulls are struggling to maintain an upward bias. A break below $1.3158 will unwind the current up spurt and target down to the $1.3088 to $1.3065 support. On the upside, if the bulls can defend the $1.3158 level then they will likely turn their attention to the $1.3260 top."

EUR/JPY: "The 153.55 yen support snapped and this puts pressure on 152.10 and the last low at 150.76. It looks vulnerable and its elimination will cause a further decline to the 147.57 handle. It appears to be strong support so reaching it will likely cause a bounce higher. New resistance has been established at 153.55 and a break above it indicates that the bulls are launching a new offensive against the 156.20 upside Fibonacci level."

JUERGEN MEYER, LBBW

EUR/USD: "Tried the upside yesterday, but failed to start a real rally after breaking above $1.3025 hourly close, so we have to be aware of a new correction down to $1.3110 before the next leg up might start."

USD/JPY: "As long as we stay above 115.50 yen daily close we have a valid chance to start a rally to the target at 120.50 ahead of 122.50."

USD/CHF: "We broke below 1.2880 francs on a daily close and so we are on the way south to 1.1980 now and only hourly close above 1.2320 will reverse north again. But
looks like we have a long way south still."

EUR/GBP: "Back above 68.05 pence hourly close with the scope to test the 68.50/80 once again. Only hourly close below 67.80 will frustrate now."

GBP/USD: "We are on the way north again and hourly close above $1.9410 will confirm the rally to $1.9580 with $1.9660/90 and $1.9750 thereafter."

EUR/JPY: "As long as we stay above 152.20 yen daily close we should trade higher in coming days with target 157.50/80 ahead of 160 still."

Published on  Wed, Mar 14 2007, 12:35 GMT

Deutsche Bank, SAUDI−HOLLANDI BANK

Mon, Mar 12 2007, 11:22 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3110) The single currency hardly moved in the run-up to the release of the payrolls number on Friday, however,once it was out it was sent almost straight down through the $1.31mark. As it was losing ground, the upward revisions to the previous payrolls and a narrower US trade deficit seemed to serve as reasonable arguments on which to sell the euro. In fact, the postrelease price action seems to have been nothing more a confirmation that market participants had it all worked out even before the data was published. Before implementing their plans, which probably also involved some yen selling, they simply wanted to get the number out of the way first; this was the only event that could have spoiled their Friday. This could be one way of explaining why some traders got all excited about a number that was far from good (sub-100k on the payrolls is hardly cause for a celebration). Traders also started pricing-out the chances for Fed rate cut. The pendulum thus swings in the opposite direction – and not for the first time. In the matter of US monetary policy market participants seem to be very keen to predict hikes or cuts but very reluctant to even consider the possibility of the Fed simply remaining on hold. For the time being we opt to keep the view neutral as we expect the euro to just further explore the sideway range. The lower border of the sideways consolidation probably lies at 1.3000.

USD JPY (118.30) The pressure on the yen remained towards the end of the week. To this end, the ‘harmless’ US jobs data meant that market turmoil was officially over. Traders went on and did what they had in any event planned to do. For many, this immediately signalled that the carrytrade was alive and well. However, it remains to be seen how many genuine carry-traders will immediately flock back. For the moment the dollar remains in neutral terrain, however, on a bounce up to 118.95 we would enter into a bearish strategy. Once in place, our risk-limit would be set at 119.25/35. For today we reckon with supports at 117.40/50 and at 116.55.

EUR JPY (155.35) The euro just continued its upside march and managed to clear the ¥155 level. However, for risk-reward considerations we keep the cross in neutral territory. Supply is lurking at 156.10/15 and beyond there at 156.70/80. Any initial weakness is likely to be supported at 154.30 and 153.40 supports.

GBP USD (1.9350) The last day of the week proved to have been a rather quiet one for Cable. The impact of both weaker than expected UK manufacturing production and the US number was rather short-lived. Our view remains unchanged and as long as our 1.9440 resistance holds, the downside remains open for further weakness to 1.9110. However, an unfavourable risk-reward profile means that a bearish strategy is not a
feasible option.

AUD USD (0.7820) Despite the recent recovery, we prefer to keep the A$ in a neutral
position for the moment. Any further strength will likely be met by selling interest at 0.7840 and at 0.7870. To the downside, we are looking out for demand at 0.7770 and at 0.7725. All price levels mentioned in this report require a 10-pip break to be invalidated

ALI ASGHAR, SAUDI-HOLLANDI BANK

EUR/USD: "Confined inside the $1.3190-1.3080 range for the past few sessions. Prices are challenging a band of resistance between $1.3135-1.3190...Prices posted $1.3259 high in late February suggesting that the upside move may be over and the pair is vulnerable to a fresh leg lower. If so then, our downside objectives are $1.3060 and $1.3010. Having said that, a swift and sustain breakout of $1.3270 would negate the corrective outlook and pave the way for additional rise to $1.3350/60."

GBP/USD: "Cable recorded a fresh one-week high of $1.9378 overnight, which is the 38.2 percent Fibonacci resistance of the recent decline. Rising daily technical models favor additional rise beyond $1.9370/80 at some point this week .. From the short-medium term perspective, cable is likely to consolidate the recent losses. Expected range for the consolidation is $1.9490-1.9220 followed by another sell off."

EUR/USD: "Euro's complex consolidation persists and still risks sell off below $1.3075 towards $1.3000, enroute to $1.2870 over coming days."

USD/JPY: "Dollar rallied as expected and support is now around 118.00 yen level to extends corrective recovery toward 118.45 enroute to mid-119.00's.

USD/CHF: "Dollar's recovery persists and with support around 1.2300 francs, looking for the rally to extend to 1.2345 enroute to 1.2575 over coming days."

GBP/USD: Sterling's corrective recovery is mature and awaiting a break below $1.9300/1.9625 support for sell off to $1.9185 enroute to the $1.9000 level."

Published on  Mon, Mar 12 2007, 11:22 GMT

Deutsche Bank, ABN, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

Thu, Mar 8 2007, 10:58 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3175) The single-currency ambled higher yesterday for no particular reason: eurozone data from early in the day was weaker-than-consensus; the Beige Book was mixed; the latest comments from the Fed – this time from Michael Moskow –were actually on the hawkish side. Only the ADP forecast for this week’s non-farm payrolls might have given the market some cause for concern. According to ADP’s new calculation methodology – their attempt to avoid some of the embarrassing mishaps that cost them some market credibility last year – the number of jobs created was far fewer than economists had been predicting. However, the euro barely moved on the release of this data. We still believe that the single-currency is stuck in a sideways range whose lower border was probably visited this week. Our attempt to exploit this range with a sub-$1.31 dip-buying strategy was foiled on Monday for the want of 2-pips. As the price has already returned to where we believe the centre of the range to be, we can no longer recommend such a strategy. Good supports are anyway to be found either at higher levels, 1.3120, or much lower at 1.2990. The upper border of the range will probably be made above $1.33. The first upside hurdle for today, however, intervenes at 1.3190.

USD JPY (116.75) Although the Beige Book was released overnight, it was once again the ex- Fed chief Alan Greenspan who stole the limelight yesterday. He added to the seemingly endless column inches on the topic of the carry-trade by warning that it had to turn at some point. Although market participants probably agree with him, not too many of them reckon that ‘at some point’ is today. Short-term players remain convinced that, as the dust settles in the equity markets, the carrytrade will resume – or is it vice versa? We cannot be too optimistic about the idea of a renewed rally for the dollar. The first resistance still stands at 117.20/30. This might even be enough to thwart a rebound. We must concede, however, that the best supply point is much higher at 118.60. To the downside, demand remains unreliable; the points to note are 115.55 and at 115.10.

EUR JPY (153.70) The euro was rejected just ahead of our first 153.60 resistance for a second (and last) time overnight. At one point, it even traded more than a big-figure lower. But it subsequently broke through on the back of renewed short-term dip-buying. Although the next upside hurdle remains at 154.60, the toughest overhead point stands only at 156.70/80. To the downside, weak buying interest could be felt at 152.25 and at 151.25.

GBP USD (1.9320) Unchanged. Whilst Cable moves below 1.9440, we still see the risk to the downside (1.9090/00). However, the risk-reward profile for a bearish strategy is not attractive.

AUD USD (0.7775) The A$’s recovery from our key 0.7680/85 support extended further yesterday. As before, a break there would trigger a further downside target at 0.7460/65 (the future risk-limit would be set at 0.7715). In the meantime, look for nearby supply at 0.7815 and at 0.7845.

ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The recent pop higher is petering out a trend line resistance and before the last peak at $1.3214, resulting in a large head-and-shoulders top. So, holding under that line at $1.3190 and the $1.3214 peak calls for an attempt to take out the key $1.3065 support. If that snaps then the bears will likely turn their attention to the main support at $1.2867. However, minor support levels at $1.3045, $1.2995 and $1.2943 could cause some hesitation on the way down. On the upside, pressing up past $1.3190 and especially $1.3214 ends this outlook and opens the way to the $1.3260 former top."

USD/JPY: "The bulls are struggling at the first upside Fibonacci level at 116.82 and recent peak at 116.90. The rally they tried to spark could be coming to an end. Failing push up past new barrier at 116.90 calls for an attempt to break below 115.16, which will then open the way for a decline to the 114.44 to 114.00 area. On the upside, taking out 116.90 will extend the correction higher to 117.84."

GBP/USD: "The bulls are trying to hang in there after forming a small base at $1.9185. However, so far they are having difficulty at the first upside Fibonacci level at $1.9360. A break below $1.9260 signals that they are losing their grip, which will then put heavy pressure in the $1.9185 support. But as long as $1.9260 holds then buyers will try to knock out $1.9360 and head up to $1.9470. The removal of the $1.9185 support ends this outlook and calls for a decline to the $1.9074 handle."

EUR/USD: "The bulls are being cautious before the 38.2 percent upside Fibonacci level at 154.21. New support has shored up at 152.10 and holding above it keeps the bears at bay and the focus on a pop up past 154.21 and a rise to 155.21. But, slipping below it indicates that the market is getting ready to remove the 150.33 support and send prices down to 147.57."

EUR/GBP: "The market is holding above first support at 67.58 pence, which keeps an over-all bullish bias in place. This could lead to the elimination of the new resistance at 68.42 pence and a further rally to 69.47 pence. At that point selling pressure could kick in again. On the downside, violating 67.58 pence targets down to at least 67.19 pence before any upside interest returns."

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Much the same old story as we break back above the top of the 'flag' pattern and hold above the Ichimoku 'cloud'. This just might add enough upside pressure for a squeeze back up towards 1.3250 late this week. Buy on a dip to $1.3150, adding to $1.3100; stop below $1.3050. Short-term target $1.3200/50."

USD/JPY: "Still forming a potential 'spike low' on the weekly candle at the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and pivotal support around 115.50/115.00. Over the coming weeks we continue to favour a series of big swings probably either side of 118.00, holding roughly between 115.50 and 119.50 most of the time. For this morning expect a test and break above 117.00 setting off a short squeeze to 117.50 and maybe 118.25."

GBP/USD: "Holding above the lower edge of the band of the last three months and we continue to look for signs of basing here. Now comes the long slog slowly higher."

EUR/JPY: "Rallying from the lower levels of the last three months, yet the euro is still oversold. For this morning allow for another short squeeze through 154.00 to 155.00."

Published on  Thu, Mar 8 2007, 10:58 GMT

Deutsche Bank, UBS, SEB MERCHANT BANKING

Wed, Mar 7 2007, 12:27 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3120) Market participants could not ignore Alan Greenspan’s estimation of a one-third risk of a US recession this year. Of those that disagreed (the majority), many considered it irresponsible to dare to use the R-word; others tried to discredit him because the current Fed chief has the opposite opinion (which is not true because, although Bernanke predicts strong growth in 2007, he has not attributed any probability – it could be two-thirds). So how should we treat the position of Mr Greenspan? For the gloomy prediction to materialise we need two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Assuming a positive outcome in the current exercise, this means sub-zero growth in the next two or in the last two. According to the last 60 years of Fed data, the probability of negative growth in any given quarter – the base rate – was just 15 percent. This calculates (generously assuming serial independence) to a probability of a recession this year of less than 5 percent. So, at 33 percent, Greenspan’s prediction is very bold indeed and cannot be watered down by simply saying ‘possible, not probable’. We continue to see the euro on the sidelines of market activity. So far, the dip has not reached the level where we would try to exploit the sideways range with a bullish strategy. However, as long as the initial 1.3140 resistance is not overtaken first, we still favour this stance in case of a setback to 1.3060. The risk-limit to the eventual bullish view would be 1.3035. The target would be set at 1.3330.

USD JPY (116.35) The dollar hardly made any further upward progress during yesterday’s European and NY sessions. But traders could barely contain their desire to buy it. Even though many concede that there are a number of impediments to a full-blown carry-trade revival, whoever says ‘equity market rebound’, also says ‘yen weakness’. Thus, even though market participants have still not agreed on what the precise link between the two is – nor are they clear about the direction of any causal link – they are convinced that the correlation on the way up will be as high as it was on the way down. So sure were they of higher prices that some talked of a ‘line in the sand’ at ¥115, drawn by the Japanese MoF and suggested that a future intervention strategy would have the support of US Treasury Secretary, Paulson. Given the latter’s recent combat against currency manipulation, the idea that he would endorse such an action, at a price level that was seen in the market just three months ago, simply beggars belief. We consider a consolidation at this new, lower level as the most optimistic outlook. Resistances now stand at 117.20/30 and at 117.60. To the downside, only poor demand waits at 115.65 and at 114.90.

EUR JPY (152.75) The euro challenged our first 153.60 resistance overnight (weaker now). A second hurdle remains at 154.60. As against the dollar, we do not expect any significant upside. Supports stand at 151.25 and better at 150.50.

GBP USD (1.9290) Whilst Cable holds below 1.9435, we see the risk to the downside
(1.9085/90). For the moment, however, the riskreward profile of a bearish strategy is unattractive.

AUD USD (0.7755) Our key 0.7680/85 support has so far remained the low. As before, a break there would trigger a further downside target at 0.7460/65 (the future risk-limit would be set at 0.7715). In the meantime, look for nearby supply at 0.7815 and at 0.7845.

UBS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

USD/JPY: "Recent rebounds have re-tested the old channel breakdown zone which is an ideal place for a lower high to develop. We are still looking for a breakdown through 115.00 yen to (drive) the yen crosses lower."

GBP/JPY: "The rebound back to trendline resistance and just in front of the 38 percent Fibonacci resistance looks to be a 3 wave correction. Whether this is just an A wave of a larger move back to 228/240 yen we are are not sure, but for now the risk is that the correction is over and we have seen a small wave down develop."

GBP/USD: "The dollar is in a major multi year bear trend that ... will see a move through 2.00 against the pound .. Cable is the only dollar rate at the moment that is worrying us. We have been looking for a correction back to $1.9250, which wasn't quite reached, and last weeks rally is very impulsive and arguably 5 waves in nature. We are watching how pullbacks develop very closely for a warning sign that cable is going to find renewed vigour and extend back towards the highs before range trading."

SEB MERCHANT BANKING

EUR/USD: "As the pair once again failed in the $1.3080 area the market bounced back towards the upper end of the 1.3110/40 resistance zone. If is common that it takes 2-3 periods to digest a benchmark candle by rising towards the mid body point. So watch out for sellers today/tomorrow."

USD/CHF: "Today and tomorrow will be two very important days. After a spring bottom like the one printed on Monday, the market should within three sessions be clearly running in the opposite direction i.e. upwards. We think a break of 1.2260 francs will be the trigger for such a move."

EUR/JPY: "With the move up to 153.50 yen the minimum correction target, 153.25 (38.2 percent decline from 157.28), was met. Falling through 152.11 will confirm that the correction has ended, thus calling for a break of 151.00. Above 153.50 the correction extends to 154.00/10 or 154.80."

Published on  Wed, Mar 7 2007, 12:27 GMT

Deutsche Bank, SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK

Thu, Mar 1 2007, 12:30 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3220) Tuesday’s stock market sell-off has forced investors to review their opinions about the risks for global economic growth. This week’s comments by ex-Chairman Greenspan also prodded them in this direction (even though he back-pedalled on these yesterday, they are still ‘out there’). Markets are busy pricing back in the prospect of Fed rate cuts this year and are now looking to the ECB clues of its intentions beyond next week’s expected hike. However, this is precisely the time that the ECB has become decidedly foggy about the future for monetary policy. This week we have heard rumoured insiders suggest that there is no agreement about guidance beyond next week. Board member, Garganas, has indicated that future hikes will be dependant on Q2 data. Even Weber, one of the most vocal hawks on the Governing Council, could scarcely do better than to say that rates are ‘still low’. Various board members made calming gestures yesterday. However, given the backdrop of tame eurozone inflation (the latest 1.8 percent reading was below-consensus), one has to wonder whether the ECB would maintain its hawkish rhetoric were equity markets to be down, say 10 percent, at the time of next week’s meeting? The current target is unchanged at 1.3295. A surpass there would justify an additional objective at 1.3450. Our 1.3190 downside risklimit narrowly survived a test yesterday and also remains valid. We would classify the euro as neutral below this support.

USD JPY (118.20) Day-traders currently express the view that once the equity market storm calms, the carry-trade can resume. And, as we suspected, they reappeared on the bid ahead of ¥118 yesterday. However, we have repeatedly stressed that these operators are not carry-traders at all. The genuine carry-trade has become decidedly less attractive and these positions are probably still being unwound. The new holders of these positions have much shorter time horizons and use stop-losses that probably do not lie too far away. Unfortunately, yesterday’s dip-buying foray did not lift the dollar all the way to 119.00/20, the level where we had hoped to establish a bearish strategy. We adhere to this approach, in case of a second rebound, and would use 119.70 as a risklimit. The objective would be 116.10/20, a level that already marks the current risk.

EUR JPY (156.20) Our bearish ambitions were better accommodated here than in the SD; the overnight bounce lifted it precisely to the level where we planned a bearish strategy. he risk-limit to the new orientation can already be set at 157.30. The current target is at 155.20/30, where a break would trigger further weakness to 153.45.

GBP USD (1.9590) We still contend that the absence of significant wrong positions makes a strong rally unlikely, even though the broader outlook for Cable is positive. However, dovish comments by various BOE members over the last two days may have meant that short positions were created recently. For the time being we remain neutral. Nearby supply points are still at 1.9685 and at 1.9755. The next demand point is at .9450.

AUD USD (0.7865) Although softer on the day, the A$ remains stable whilst it moves bove 0.7825/35. We would even try a bullish strategy at this support using a tight risk-limit. Below there, however, we must turn bearish for a slide to 0.7675/85. To the upside, supply is to be expected at 0.7910 and at 0.7945. All price levels mentioned in this report require a 10-pip break to be invalidated.

ALI ASGHAR, SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK

EUR/USD: "The euro failed to break $1.3260 obstacle for the second time in a row in this week, suggesting that a range trade between $1.3250-1.3175 is in the offing. A slip through $1.3175 base would trigger more losses to $1.3130 and $1.3095 supports. Daily technical models are rolling lower from overbought region setting up ideal conditions for a corrective dip. From the short-medium term perspective, the pace of the current rally is gradual and bi-directional suggesting that it is a corrective move."

GBP/USD: "A falling trend line off Feb. 2 high is containing on the upside attempts; standing today at $1.9650 region. Below this obstacle, a dip to $1.9580/70 is on the way. A decisive breakout of $1.9580 would trigger a major dip to $1.9480. Daily technical models are rolling over from overbought region and supporting a range trade between $1.9650-1.9570 followed by additional decline.

Published on  Thu, Mar 1 2007, 12:30 GMT

Deutsche Bank, SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK, UBS

Thu, Mar 1 2007, 07:58 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3220) Traders’ preference for selling the euro –visible at the start of european trading on Monday as well as on Tuesday morning – came unstuck yesterday. Sadly, the shortsqueeze was not powerful enough to drive the price to our outstanding 1.3295 target (the high was 1.3260). We half-suspect that the shorts are already out now. As a result, we must tighten sharply the downside risk-limit to 1.3190. To the upside, we would nevertheless open a further upside objective (1.3450) in case of a move beyond the target level. It is precisely because it is unlikely that such a rally emerges as a result of the actions of the current protagonists that would make us bullish: such a development would prove the renewed presence of longer-term demand. Risk returned to financial markets yesterday. Among those that were ‘blamed’ for the panic (the US durable goods number, the Chinese stock market, etc.) was former Fed chairman Greenspan. Of late he has warned about inflation in the US as well as about recession. But one must not forget that Sir Alan is a professional speaker and no longer a central banker. A few inflammatory remarks here and there and he can easily fill his speaking calendar for the year; nobody wants to pay to hear a benign outlook for the US economy. Tomorrow he will address a conference in Japan. One most expect some more provocative statements.

USD JPY (118.25) The expression ‘carrytrade unwinding’ litters this morning’s press. But the liquidation of such trades has not just been a feature of the last 24-hours. The conditions for a carry-trade, in terms of volatility and interest rate spread – not to mention credit spreads – have been slowly deteriorating since the start of the year. As a result, the unwinding has been an ongoing process. The reason the dollar did not fall is because other, pseudo-carry-traders have stepped in to fill the gap. Unlike the outgoing investors, they were not seeking the carry at all, but rather the capital gains that it seemed to promise. Also, unlike the genuine carry-trader, these pretenders had to work with stop-losses expressed in price terms. As these stops were hit yesterday, sales were triggered. Now, the rising volatility must prompt more liquidation of genuine carry-trades, but the ‘pseudos’ may try to buy again. In case of a bounce to 119.00/10, we would try a bearish strategy with a risk-limit set at 119.65. The objective would be 116.10/20, a level that already marks the current risk. 122.10. In between, one should look for support and resistance at 120.05 and at 120.95, respectively.

EUR JPY (156.30) As in USD/JPY, we would try a bearish strategy at the first resistance (157.20/40), with a stop mmediately above, for a slide to 155.20/30. This support level already marks the current risk.

GBP USD (1.9590) The absence of significant wrong positions was revealed as the Cable struggled to make upward progress yesterday. As before, nearby supply points are at 1.9685 and at 1.9755. We expect demand at 1.9540.

AUD USD (0.7880) The A$ violated our tightened downside limit yesterday. It remains stable, however, whilst above 0.7820/30. We would even try a bullish strategy at this support with a tight risk-limit. Below there, however, we would turn bearish as a risk to 0.7675/85 would be exposed.

ALI ASGHAR, SAUDI HOLLANDI BANK

EUR/USD: "The euro extended the current rally to $1.3259, which is the 78.6 percent Fibonacci obstacle of the Dec. 2006-Jan. 2007 decline. Below this obstacle, a corrective dip is in the pipeline targeting intraday support at $1.3175. A breakout of this support would extend the decline to $1.3135."

GBP/USD: "Cable rejected $1.9650/70 resistance this whole week, which is a falling trend line from Feb. 2 high of $1.9749. Below this obstacle, a dip to $1.9580 is on the way. A decisive breakout of $1.9580 would trigger a major dip to $1.9480."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS

EUR/USD: "Euro/dollar outlook remains constructive with key support at last Thursday's $1.3079 reaction low. Only a break there would damage the underlying bull trend. Until then, we will keep our focus on next break of $1.3261 Tuesday's high ahead of $1.3298, a prominent reaction high from January 2."

USD/CHF: "Dollar/Swiss continues to work lower from last week's 1.2438 high, recently violating the 1.2273 to 1.2240 congestion support zone. Penetration there clears the way for deeper fall beneath 1.2143 Tuesday's low, near the 0.618 retracement of the 1.1879-1.2575 rise, for 1.2111, Jan 2 low. Initial resistance from congestion is around 1.2334 to 1.2337."

USD/JPY: "Dollar/yen's recent decline from 121.65 has accelerated lower from last week's 121.65 high, slicing through key support at 117.98, Jan 5 low. Expect deeper pullback towards next foothold at 117.26, Dec 14 low and 116.65, Dec 13 low. Key barriers are 118.98, Feb 16 former low ahead of 120.77, Tuesday's high."

EUR/CHF: "Euro/Swiss has taken mild support from last Monday's 1.6197 low, putting the underling bull trend on hold. Loss of support at 1.6162-the 0.618 retracement of 1.6083-1.6291 threatens 1.6083 February 6 low and a violation there triggers a possibility of a notable bear trend taking hold. Congestive resistance is at Monday's 1.6243 reaction
high."

EUR/JPY: "Euro/yen's latest pullback from 159.66 has broken 157.53, the 0.618 retracement of the 156.21-159.66 rise and the prominent 156.21 low from Feb 16. Hence, expect further downside risks towards 155.24, Feb 6 low and a erosion there will offset the long term higher highs and higher lows formation. Mild resistance is at 157.29, Feb 21 former low ahead of key breakdown point at 159.28, Tuesday's high."

EUR/GBP: "EURGBP's recent corrective pullback from last Monday's 67.58 trend high most likely bottomed at 66.90, just ahead of the 66.78 February 15 support."

Published on  Thu, Mar 1 2007, 07:58 GMT

Deutsche Bank, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK, LBBW

Tue, Feb 27 2007, 15:35 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3180) With prices at a two-month high, traders could not resist trying to sell it short yesterday. These sales helped to push the price some 40-pips lower over the course of the day. But position-squaring later on meant that it closed practically unchanged. Rising tensions between the US and Iran was officially blamed for the dollar’s weakness last Friday. The belief that traders are worried about a possible military conflict in the Gulf has grown exponentially over the weekend – most likely as a consequence of the need to explain a price rally that came out of nowhere. But the truth is that currency-traders are not worried. The implications of a possible war for the euro-dollar exchange rate is ambiguous at best. There is no reason to believe that the dollar would automatically weaken as a result of an eventual conflict, Indeed, given the unprecedented sums that Americans have invested abroad in recent years, the dollar could reasonably be seen as a safe-haven. Were traders genuinely worried about a military altercation, the first gesture would be to buy volatility. Instead, implied volatility languished at historical lows and the first action of day-traders yesterday was to buy dollars. Our current objective remains at 1.3295. The downside limit to the bullish view is also unchanged at 1.3075. However, once the first minor point at 1.3205 (tested overnight) is overtaken, we would hoist this risk-limit to 1.3110.

USD JPY (120.30) As the dollar inched lower yesterday, traders suddenly became aware of the narrowing spread between two-year US and Japanese yields (at a two-month low) and of the perennial, but wholly unreliable prospect of repatriation flows ahead of the Japanese year-end. Of course, both of these features were present when traders scrambled to sell yen after last week’s BoJ interest-rate decision, yet positions are now being unwound. If proof were needed that these actors were not genuine carry-traders, this was it. Almost all of the dollar’s gains since last Wednesday are now gone. The sideways range that we currently suggest is broadly marked out by 119.00 and 122.10. In between, one should look for support and resistance at 120.05 and at 120.95, respectively.

USD/JPY did not go unnoticed in the crosses. As a result, the euro drifted lower in sympathy. So far however, it was not able to violate any of the nearby supports, the first of which come in today at 158.10 and at 156.90. Thus, it can still be categorised as stable. The level 160.40/50 remains the near-term potential, although 159.10 now represents an earlier supply point.

GBP USD (1.9620) Although the outlook is essentially positive, we see too few wrong positions to believe that short squeeze is in the making (although comments by the BoE’s Blanchflower may now be encouraging some short positions). As before, nearby supply points are at 1.9670 and 1.9755. We expect demand at 1.9540.

AUD USD (0.7935) Our current objective remains at 0.8030. The A$ finally leapfrogged the 0.7930 mark yesterday, which means that we can now raise the risk-limit to the bullish scenario to 0.7875. Ahead of the target level the next upside obstacle stands at 0.7960.

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Trying, but so slow it's hardly worth watching, to push above the top of the `flag' pattern. Some time, hopefully this week, we favour a break above $1.3200 to test more important long term resistance at $1.3300."

GBP/USD: "Like watching paint dry. In the middle of the range of the last few months and above a fat Ichimoku 'cloud'. Over the coming week/fortnight we favour yet another upside test of $1.9700/50, with a break above the 26-day average at $1.9660 adding a little upside pressure."

JUERGEN MEYER, LBBW

EUR/USD: "We should start a new leg up soon with target still set at $1.3350 ahead of $1.3550. Only hourly close below $1.3110 will frustrate again and will call for a test of
the former break level around $1.3050 before (moving) up again."

USD/CHF: "We are on a new way south to 1.2280 francs in coming days with possibly 1.1980 thereafter and only an hourly close above 1.2410 will reverse north again."

EUR/GBP: "Reversed nicely and so with a break above 67.20 pence hourly close we started a new rally with target set at 67.80/68.05 for now."

EUR/JPY: "We should continue with the rally up to 160/162 yen as long as we stay above 156.10 daily close. Only below the latter will reverse south."

Published on  Tue, Feb 27 2007, 15:35 GMT

Deutsche Bank, Elliott Wave International, BNP Parribas

Wed, Feb 21 2007, 11:05 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3140) Yesterday’s early rally towards the $1.32 level was probably a little inconvenient for some of the previousday’s euro-shorts, some of whom were undoubtedly stopped out. But this minor setback did not prevent a second wave of short-selling yesterday that dragged the single-currency all the way back to a 1.3130 low. The increasingly worrisome situation in Iran proved to be no impediment to renewed short-term bearishness either – even though this was the news that was popularly blamed for the price jump in the first place. Clearly, although there is some nervousness in the market about the developments in the Middle East, the bulk of short-term players still favour the idea of trading what they now believe to be a wider range for the euro. The current price behaviour at least reveals that short-term players are largely among themselves at the moment. Longer-term demand, the driving force behind the euro rise over the last few weeks, has been exposed at increasingly higher levels. But the last time that we were able to point to evidence of such bids was sub-$1.31, hence the choice of 1.3075 as the risk-limit to our current bullish scenario. As long as this support is not violated, we will continue to favour higher prices and an objective at 1.3295/05. Ahead of there, repeated short-selling attempts by day-traders have to be expected, starting at 1.3210.

USD JPY (120.40) In the run-up to the BoJ rate decision, dollar-bulls seemed to be stepping up the rhetoric. Only a rate hike accompanied by an outright hawkish statement would be able to help the yen, they argued, full in the knowledge that the chances of a very hawkish statement were very slim. Hence the yen came under pressure already yesterday. Despite this, bulls were still present this morning again after the rate hike. Thus the current development seems to suit yen-shorts. The question is: who will buy the dollar now? We remain bearish for target 115.95. The risk-limit is still at 120.60.

EUR JPY (158.25) Also here the bulls were largely convinced that it would take more than a BoJ rate hike to kill off the carry-trade and that it still has a long way to go. However, we are neutral for the moment and overhead we expect hurdles at 158.65 and at 160.25. Demand is visible at 156.90 and at 155.60.

GBP USD (1.9535) After its brief dip below the $1.95 level, Sterling recovered and just continued its recent sideways range. We remain neutral for the time being. Resistances stand at 1.9590 and at 1.9650. Beyond the latter, it would be difficult to find reliable supply. But given the current lack of a significant bias, there is no reason to expect a squeeze in either direction. One can expect to run into supports at 1.9385 and 1.9320.

AUD USD (0.7880) The Aussie was stable again yesterday and even climbed back to Monday’s lofty levels this morning. The objective remains at 0.8030. Intermediate resistance comes in at 0.7930. The risk-limit is pinned at 0.7835.

ELLIOTT WAVE INTERNATIONAL

USD/JPY: "Price is likely to trend higher over coming hours with interim support around 120.02 yen."

EUR/USD: "With an initial five-wave decline from $1.3190 complete, once this current consolidation from $1.3132 runs its course, we are looking for at least another similar decline towards the $1.3096-84 area."

USD/CAD: "While trend remains up, near term allow for potentail that price may correct down towards C$1.1680 before resuming the longer term uptrend."

CLAUDE MATTERN, BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "Still attempting to resume a bullish bias, encountering resistance. Between $1.3125 and $1.3150, a return towards $1.3190 is expected, before further upward pressure."

USD/JPY: "Rebounding above 119.70 yen, as a key support (and) finding resistance at 120.55, the 50 percent correction of last week's fall. The currency pair is under strong discussion. The daily indicators remain negative (only a close above 120.55 would reverse the signal). The hourly ones are signalling resistance."

USD/CHF: "Still seen between 1.2390 and 1.2310 francs, in consolidation of the fall of the past few days. Below 1.2390, a fall below 1.2310 -- in direction of 1.2775 -- is still expected."

EUR/GBP: "Finding resistance near its former high at 67.65 pence -- seen as a first bullish break level -- (the pair) is doing a slight correction. The daily indicators are on their former high. The hourly ones are neutral. Above 67.40 pence, the next major point is at 67.60 pence, as a bullish signal."

GBP/USD: "Remains poised within a sideways pattern, finding support above $1.9400. A rebound above $1.9570 would argue for a test of a resistance line at $1.9610, with the bullish break level at $1.9675."

EUR/JPY: "...Capped by 158.35 yen. A rebound above that level would argue for a return towards 159.00 yen, or even 159.40 (ascending resistance line). The currency pair is in the middle of an ascending pattern, rather choppy, with lack of direction."

Published on  Wed, Feb 21 2007, 11:05 GMT

Deutsche Bank, ABN AMRO, SEB

Fri, Feb 16 2007, 10:14 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3130) Short-covering in the euro was still apparent yesterday. Remarkably however, the single-currency’s advance got stuck at the first 1.3070 resistance, although we had not expected this to be a particularly durable supply point. This upside stickiness took place against a backdrop of rather disappointing data for the US dollar and a rather shocking headline figure for US capital inflows. Thus, it may well be that the squaring of range-bets, established earlier in the week, has now been completed and that short-term players are flat. In this case, one must simply expect prices to drift around the current level through to the end of the week. An alternative explanation could be that the offers at yesterday’s peak – rumoured to be out of Asia - represented additional short sales, i.e. traders were doubling up in a last chance gamble on the persistence of some sort of sideways range. This would be a very explosive cocktail, especially on a Friday. So far, however, market discussions have not given away which is the more likely scenario. In any case, a break beyond Thursday’s high would be very telling. Our current objective remains at 1.3295. To the downside, we see no reason to expect anything more than a shallow pullback; leftover shorts may still seek to buy already at 1.3085. The risk-limit to the bullish view however remains at 1.3040.

USD JPY (119.35) The ‘dangerous game’ of dip-buying that we described in our last report indeed attracted some short-term players yesterday morning. The unshakeable belief that the dollar was still in a range and the view that a BOJ rate hike was no done-deal encouraged buyers to bid the USD to a 120.35 peak in European trading. But these positions were nastily undone later in the day as the price slumped to a six-week low of 119.20 (sadly, the earlier bounce stopped 15-pips short of the level where we wanted to exploit the popular beliefs with a bearish strategy). Even now, however, dollar optimists are still in evidence: they talk about the Japanese government delaying the BOJ vote and about the need for the BOJ to be ‘forward looking’ (a synonym for simply ignoring the GDP data). Chasing the market lower now cannot be justified due to the presence of good, but critical, support at 119.10. Were this point to be broken, however, the dollar’s broader situation would deteriorate. In the meantime, any bounce to 119.75 would still merit a bearish strategy with a risk-limit set at 120.40.

EUR JPY (156.75) The cross remains in neutral territory with important support now at 155.60. In case of a recovery to 157.50 we would try a bearish strategy for this modest goal with a risk-limit set at 158.00.

GBP USD (1.9525) The Pound rallied to within a whisker of our 1.9685 bullish trigger point yesterday before turning sharply lower again. This overhead point remains valid (for gains to 2.0170, but is now better defended by fresh resistance at 1.9570/85. To the downside, 1.9375 and 1.9515 (critical) mark the best supports.

AUD USD (0.7845) The A$ flirted with our 0.7875 bullish trigger point yesterday. As before, a break of this mark would signal gains to 0.8030. To the downside, support stands at 0.7750.

STEVE WESIAK, ABN AMRO

EUR/USD: "The upswing remains intact but is reaching an area that could cap the advance, namely $1.3195. The market has already started to hesitate at $1.3173. The sign that a correction lower is ocurring comes with a break below $1.3120. If that happens then a fall to $1.3045 can be expected. On the upside, talking out $1.3190 has potential to send levels up to $1.3298."

USD/JPY: "The correction lower that started just before the 122.50 yen resistance could be bottoming out now that prices have reached the 38.2 percent Fibonacci level. Holding above the overnight low at 119.15 could prove to be the resumption of the uptrend. First hint comes with a break above 120.00. If that happens then buyers should be tempted to take out 122.50 and head up to the 124.50 area. Under 119.15 postpones any base building until 118.00 is reached."

GBP/USD: "The market is showing little in the way of any clear structures at the moment but certain levels do stand out. On the upside, it is $1.9750. Breaking above it targets the $1.9916 top. On the downside, the current drift lower could make it to the line at $1.9415 and the low at $1.9403. If that gives way then the $1.9263 low will be exposed."

EUR/JPY: "The recent sell-off reached a Fibonacci level and the market is trying to hammer out a base. Holding above 156.60 yen should be enough to send levels up to the first resistance at 157.36. Clearing it is the first sign that the bigger uptrend is resuming, meaning an attack on the 159.0 top is underway. Taking that out brings an old DEM/JPY top at 162.50 into focus. On the downside, slipping below 156.60 calls for a limited decline to 156.19 where yet another attempt higher could kick in."

EUR/GBP: "The uptrend continues and the bulls look determined to reach 67.62/65 pence. It could yet again prove to be a strong barrier and lead to a large dip lower. First sign of this comes under 67.18, with further confirmation coming if prices dip below 66.80. That inturn will likely launch an attack on the tested 66.44 support."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "With a micro-term price momentum divergence now on the map, any return below $1.3120 will deepen a thought correction, possibly down to the breakout area at $1.3065. New highs (above $1.3170) will re-accelerate the upmove for a test at/above $1.3200."

USD/JPY: "Late in the session longs gave in as the pair broke below the long-term 119.75 key & the European opening range. The biggest single day loss on record in a long time halted at the drawn 38 percent Fibo retracement ref. A 119.80 re-test may come but once below 119.20 another 100pips loss may occur."

GBP/JPY: "After sitting on top of the 234.80 lever most of the day it was pulled in the European closing hour. The very sharp drop and the low close afterwards have painted a very unbalanced market, and further losses are likely. The minor 76 percent Fibo ref at 231.20 is the next level to keep in mind."

Published on  Fri, Feb 16 2007, 10:14 GMT

Deuche Bank, SOCIETE GENERALE, UBS

Thu, Feb 15 2007, 00:53 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deuche Bank

EUR USD (1.3135) Yesterday probably marked the first session where range-traders had to take a hit since the start of the year. The positive economic indications for the eurozone of the previous day were forgotten by Wednesday morning as traders in Europe came in and sold short against the upper border of the very obvious sideways range. Within hours, these bets were in the red. Their USbased counterparts tried exactly the same strategy later in the day, just ahead of the $1.31 level. They were fortunate enough to be able to try their shorts at a more favourable level, but the outcome was the same: after the Bernanke testimony we witnessed a second wave of short-covering that lifted the single-currency to a six-week high of 1.3150. The development supports the theory from our last report that short-term traders did not buy at all in response to Tuesday’s euro-positive data – the news simply dissuaded them from selling short. The demand more than likely had a longer-term source, the bids of which have now risen above $1.30. The break of the sideways range triggered a new upside target at 1.3295 yesterday. Pullbacks should remain very shallow – we already expect stranded shorts to provide support on any dip to 1.3085. The risk-limit to the new bullish view should be set, however, a t 1.3040. Overhead, the first good supply point stands at 1.3255.

USD JPY (119.95) The Bernanke testimony was the first of two bruising blows for the dollar; the second was the better-than-expected Japanese GDP number. Our previously bullish strategy was invalidated even before the Fed chief’s speech (apologies). However, this morning, there are signs that some are willing to try the dangerous game of trying to pick a bottom for the dollar. Unlike the euro, the USD is still in a definable sideways range. Traders downplay the GDP number by pointing out that strong figures are easier when the starting point is a very low level. They also note fresh pressure from the Japanese government for the BOJ to make the ‘right’ decision. Thus, a rate hike at the upcoming meeting is by no means a done-deal for these bulls. Such optimism might well provoke a modest bounce today, but we doubt that it will lift the price beyond 120.80, the first resistance. We would therefore put in place a bearish strategy 30-pips ahead of this point with a risk limit set immediately above. To the downside, we note supports at 119.50 and at 119.10 (critical).

EUR JPY (158.00) The cross remains in neutral territory. Supports now stand at 156.90/00 and, more importantly, at 155.45. To the upside,158.30 and 159.85 are the current hurdles.

GBP USD (1.9650) The BOE governor gave an even clearer indication of the upward direction of interest rates than his counterpart at the ECB yesterday. This was one of the factors that helped Cable to gain one percent. But to trigger a bullish outcome (2.0170), resistance at 1.9685 must be overtaken. Even then, however, one must reckon with some stiff opposition at 1.9755. To the downside, the first support at 1.9570 would also serve as a risk-limit in the event of an upside exit.

AUD USD (0.7840) The A$ neared our key 0.7875 hurdle yesterday. As before, beyond this mark, we would reckon with strong gains to a target at 0.8030. To the downside, supports are pegged at 0.7815 and at 0.7750.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SOCIETE GENERALE

EUR/USD: "$1.3150/75 is the next major resistance zone on the way back to December's high at $1.3370."

EUR/JPY: "There is a risk that EUR/JPY breaks below 157.30. In that case, we expect the short-term declining pullback line, coming at 156.65 today, to limit the downside before EUR/JPY returns to 159.00 and then reaches the 160.40/162.40 zone."

USD/JPY: "Testing the key support zone at 119.70/120.00, which is the neckline of the double top drawn at 122.20. A close below this zone is needed to validate this bearish pattern. 117.80/118.00 will then be the minimum target with a first intermediate support at 119.20/25."

GBP/USD: "The bounce on the psychological $1.9400 area is impressive. However, it takes a close above the tentative declining resistance line, coming at $1.9655 today, to confirm that the downward correction started at $1.9915 is over. $1.9720/50 should then be the last major resistance zone on the way back to $1.9915."

USD/CHF: "A close below the 1.2375 support area, which has come under pressure, is needed to reduce the risk of another test of the key 1.2545/75 resistance area. Then, it will take a close below 1.2270 to confirm that USD/CHF is on its way back to last December's low of 1.1880/85."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS

EUR/USD: "Having violated the formerly resistant $1.3074 level, EURUSD now eyes next clearance of a cluster of resistance between $1.3133 ... and $1.3176 ... Firm support cuts in at Wednesday's $1.3024 low, but weakness beneath $1.2911, the low from Feb. 2 would be necessary to undermine the developing bullish theme."

USD/CHF: "Has broken out of the 1.2376 francs ... to initiate the next directional move towards 1.2273, Jan. 5 low."

GBP/USD: "A recovery beyond $1.9604, the high from Feb. 9 has relieved the broader bear threat for up-leg towards $1.9749, Feb. 2 high."

USD/JPY: "Looks set to correct lower to 119.90 yen."

EUR/CHF: "Short-term support resides at 1.6218 francs, the low from Feb. 12, but maintain a bullish bias above 1.6148, the low from Jan. 8."

EUR/JPY: "Needs to clear either 159.01 yen, Feb. 12 trend high or 157.26, Feb. 13 low for the next meaningful directional move."

EUR/GBP: "We favour extended gains beyond Wednesday's 67.19 pence high en route to 67.63, a prominent reaction high from Jan. 4."

Published on  Thu, Feb 15 2007, 00:53 GMT

Deutche Bank, BNP PARIBAS, JP MORGAN

Wed, Feb 14 2007, 10:22 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutche Bank

EUR USD (1.3030) Against a backdrop of rather favourable economic data on Tuesday, the euro was able to undo the decline of the previous day. However, despite the single-currency’s return to the upper end of a very obvious sideways range, traders seemed to be very much at ease with the rising prices. Admittedly, the eurozone Q4 GDP numbers were strong. But, if the bond markets did not get excited about it, largely because a tightening path in eurozone rates is priced in, it is hard to see why the euro must. The German ZEW numbers were also better-than-expected. But this is also one of the most maligned surveys over most of last year. To what does it owe its sudden credibility? The same can be said of the wider US trade deficit: this number had long since fallen out of fashion because of its poor predictive powers for the dollar. Why should traders be tempted to buy euros on it now? It is feasible that day-traders did not buy at all yesterday. The demand might have had a longer-term source, as we have discussed recently; the data might have been coincidental. Thus we will continue to monitor our bullish and bearish trigger points at 1.3075 and at 1.2900, respectively. As before a break to the upside would target 1.3295 (exploitable with a subsequent risk-limit set at 1 .3010). A downside exit would have 1.2680 as an objective.

USD JPY (121.30) The long-liquidation of the previous day was in evidence on Tuesday although, once again, the confirming news seemed to follow the price development rather than vice versa. As the yen rose, for example, expectations that the upcoming Japanese GDP figure would be better-than-expected rose with it. Similarly, the news of an arms deal with North Korea was perceived as positive for Japan, although few would formerly have attributed yen weakness to a nuclear risk premium. At one point it neared 121.00, the risk limit to our current bullish scenario, but this level was not violated. Thus, the current objective remains 123.90. An earlier upside hurdle comes in at 121.95 today.

EUR JPY (158.00) The cross has regained its composure but remains in neutral territory. Supports, in case of further weakness, stand now at 157.05 and, more importantly, at 155.40. To the upside, 158.30 and 159.80 are the new hurdles.

GBP USD (1.9480) Commentators explained the BOE latest ‘unchanged’ rate decision with yesterday’s weaker-then expected UK CPI figures (to which the MPC is privey ahead of its release) in the same way that they justified the previous month’s surprise hike with the 3 percent print. But this would imply that that BOE decision-making is based largely on the most recent inflation data, which is absurd. Yesterday’s first reaction was nonetheless to mark Cable down to a four-week low. It remains, however, in neutral territory. A key support is still visible at 1.9310 and one must reckon with further weakness below there. The bullish trigger point stands at 1.9695.

AUD USD (0.7800) Yesterday’s remarkable strength overran the tight risk-limit to our freshly established bearish strategy (apologies). We do reckon with additional supply at 0.7825 and at 0.7875 but, above the latter, we would be unreservedly bullish. To the downside, support has improved at 0.7755 and at 0.7710 (critical).

BNP PARIBAS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EUR/USD: "Above $1.3055 ... $1.3135 (is) the next key level. Below $1.2950, the main supportive area is at $1.2880/70."

USD/JPY: "Finding support towards 121 yen, (the dollar) is doing a slight rebound. Resistance is expected at 121.60, with a retreat below 121.05, in direction of 120.55, before a return towards 120.00 bearish break level. The daily indicators are neutral, around zero. The hourly ones are lightly supportive."

USD/CHF: "The currency pair is seen between 1.2500 and 1.2450 francs, before a retreat towards 1.2425. Below the latter, the bearish break point is at 1.2380."

EUR/GBP: "The currency pair is approaching a resistance line at 67.20 pence. The daily indicators remain supportive. The hourly ones are signalling resistance."

GBP/USD: "Doing a slight retreat, quickly finding support. The main point on the downside is at $1.9315 (former trough and support line). The daily indicators remain neutral, with a slight bearish bias. The hourly ones remain supportive, presenting a bullish divergence. There are attempts to reverse the bullish bias, without much follow-through."

EUR/JPY: "After a slight rebound, (the pair) is losing momentum. Below 158.25 yen, a retreat towards 157.30 is expected, with some support at 157.75. Further downside pressure is expected later on."

JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "Pushing back to the top of the channel, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this break and take out stops before heading lower again. The really important resistance comes in around $1.3165."

AUD/USD: "We are watching this rate closely as the risk zone we highlighted a few weeks ago has held very well. The rally from there is not overly impressive and suggests that a move to US$0.7850/0.7900 is possible, but should give way to renewed weakness."

LLOYDS TSB FINANCIAL MARKETS

GBP/USD: "Needs to hold $1.9400 to prevent a further slide towards $1.9300."

EUR/GBP: "Consolidated its position above 67.00 pence this morning. The next target is 67.20 pence."

Published on  Wed, Feb 14 2007, 10:22 GMT

Deutsche Bank, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK, UBS

Mon, Feb 12 2007, 10:52 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3025) On the eve of the G7 meeting, market discussions about the euro and the dollar were thin on the ground. Interest had anyway been lost as a result of the narrow sideways range of the last few weeks and the ECB rate-setting meeting of the previous day had failed to inject any lasting volatility. More importantly, however, the yen-crosses had become the favoured home for the speculative dollar. Thus, we do not believe that too many short-term positions were created on Friday. Of interest was the still robust demand on dips. We have long suspected the presence of longer-term bids in the market over the last few weeks. They were initially apparent just below $1.29 and then later in the low-$1.29s. Currently, corrective dips struggle to push much further than the high-$1.29s. The only problem with confirming it as such is the complete absence of any short-term bias, which means that the recent oscillations could simply represent ‘noise’. We continue to maintain a neutral stance on the single-currency. As before, can identify bullish and bearish trigger points at 1.3075 and at 1.2900, respectively. A break to the upside would target 1.3295. A downside break would have 1.2680 as an objective.

USD JPY (121.85) The current target remains at 123.90. The G7 brought absolutely nothing new, so it was not too surprising to see the dollar push beyond $122 this morning. Today we tighten the downside limit to the bullish view to 121.00.

EUR JPY (158.65) On Friday it seemed that the G7 had unofficially given the nod to the carrytrade. European officials considered the EUR/JPY to be of little importance, which, from a trade perspective, it is. And, if there was anything to be done about the weak yen, all parties seemed to agree that it was for the Japanese to undertake it. Hence, after yet another corrective dip in the early- European session that allowed even more bulls to enter, the cross pushed to a new all-time high at 159.00. The ‘hands off’ approach of the G7 is understandable; nobody wants to be the one who pricks the bubble. The extent of the move that the carry-trade liquidation might unleash is impossible to estimate. And, if the carry is responsible for the global liquidity glut, the unwinding could easily spill over to other asset classes. So they simply allow the cross to climb even further. Our current target remains at 160.00. The downside risk-limit can now be tightened to 157.55.

GBP USD (1.9550) Sterling’s punishment continued on Friday, with the UK trade figures serving simply as an excuse for tardy stop-loss sales. Cable remains however in neutral territory. The bullish trigger point has shifted slightly lower now and stands at 1.9725. The best supports remain distant at 1.9375 and at 1.9310 (critical).

AUD USD (0.7750) Our 0.7815 resistance finally rejected the A$. Although still neutral, the situation would deteriorate further below 0.7730 for a test of good support in the 0.7635/45 zone. From a risk-reward perspective however, only a bullish strategy at lower levels appears reasonable at the moment. We would make a bullish attempt 20-pips ahead of the latter, but would also be prepared to reverse the view completely in case of a violation.

NICOLE ELLIOTT, MIZUHO CORPORATE BANK

EUR/USD: "Five consecutive weeks in a very small range means some are micro-managing trading strategies. These will be surprised as and when we break out. We continue to favour an upside break - eventually."

EUR/JPY: "Much media coverage as this pair sets a new all-time high at 159.00 yen but be careful as most other yen crosses have not done something similar. Last week's close above 158.00, the highest ever, does suggest we will continue moving to new highs this month, but maybe we need a little consolidation this morning."

GBP/USD: "Dipping below $1.9500 but managing to recover this morning. These merely underlines the difficulty we are having at these historically very high levels but the tone
is well bid nevertheless. Over the coming week we favour yet another upside test of $1.9700/50."

USD/JPY: "Not going according to plan as we consolidate above 120.00 yen. Small signs of instability as we gap higher this morning but stall at 122.10, ahead of this month's high at 122.20. While below 122.10 expect a drift this morning to try and close the gap down to 121.75, and maybe 121.50."

UBS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM

EUR/USD: "Remains entrenched in the $1.2865 to $1.3074 trading range, which has contained the past month's price action, nearing the top end last Thursday. An upside break would expose $1.3133, the 61.8 percent retracement of the $1.3298-1.2865 decline. Failure to stage a successful assault on $1.3074 would re-focus attention on last week's $1.2911 low, then $1.2865."

USD/JPY: "Continues to eye the cluster of resistance between 122.20 yen, the trend high from Jan. 29 and 122.38, the 61.8 percent retracement of the 135.18 to 101.67 decline. A break of the latter would unlock 123.45. The near-term outlook is posiive above Friday's 120.99 low."

USD/CHF: "It would take a move beyond 1.2575 francs, the high from Jan. 31 to signal a departure from the range."

GBP/USD: "Yet to follow through on last week's relapse below $1.9482, but minimally we would need to see a recovery beyond Friday's $1.9604 high to relieve pressure on $1.9416, the 76.4 percent retracement of the $1.9261-1.9917 advance."

Published on  Mon, Feb 12 2007, 10:52 GMT

Deutsche Bank, SEB, UBS

Thu, Feb 8 2007, 11:07 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.3020) The single currency was dragged up above the $1.30 mark yesterday as some latecomers positioned themselves for any surprises the ECB meeting might bring today. Even though many market participants anticipate that the ECB Chair will deliver a similar message to the one in January, the expectations are running high for him to reintroduce the codewords ‘strong vigilance’. While some traders are chasing after the ‘vigilance’ to confirm a rate hike in March others are one or even two steps ahead and fairly confident that the ECB will also continue to hike right into the next quarter. Our view is that the ECB is genuinely trying to wean traders off the ‘traffic light’ system, simply because, as rates move closer to the neutral level, giving such clear guidance will no longer be possible. Nonetheless, anything less than a hawkish statement will have the potential to disappoint traders today. The other issue that should be kept in mind today is that estimates by some economists are probably over inflated because of the BoE surprise rate hike in January. Since that move, predicting surprises has been one of the most popular pastimes of central bank watchers. We remain neutral on the Euro for today. The bullish and bearish prompts are still at 1.3075 and at 1.2890, respectively.

USD JPY (120.90) The dollar has the upperhand again as it rallied to the current levels this morning. This was aided by a BoJ official who said a weak yen is good for the Japanese economy. Even before this, however, the prospect of a G7 communiqué about yen weakness had faded. Curiously, the Paulson comments which were originally seen as a real concern about the yen have been ‘re-edited’ to what is now perceived as the Treasury Secretary siding with Japan. This is the version that sits best with the aspirations of carry-traders. Supply is visible at 121.20, which also serves as our bullish trigger for target 123.90 (risk-limit 120.25/30). We would still opt to enter into a bearish strategy on a retreat through 119.70.

EUR JPY (157.40) The yen is off the G7 agenda according to a Japanese official and the
government would even spurn European calls for a stronger yen. But if the ECB is so worried about the yen, why not intervene? This, at least, was the opinion of one analyst yesterday. Do not hold your breath: the yen is not that important from a trade perspective and the ECB does not want to be the one that triggers a ‘carry crisis’. Once 157.75 is overtaken therefore we would look for gains to 160.00. The first support at 157.00 would then mark the risk-limit.

GBP USD (1.9705) Despite the belief amongst some traders that there could be another surprise rate hike on the cards at today’s BoE meeting, Cable remained in a tight range around $1.97. We maintain our neutral stance. Buying interest can be expected at 1.9660. We expect to run into resistance at 1.9755.

AUD USD (0.7805) The AUD recovered again and even tested our 0.7815 resistance this
morning. Beyond, we expect to come across another hurdle at 0.7885. The latter must be
broken before we can turn bullish. Supports stand at 0.7780 and at 0.7745

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, SEB

EUR/USD: "It took the market almost 24 hours to pass the $1.2990/3010 expected turnaround area. The following price action has not been especially impulsive. The next turning window is located at $1.3030 and thereafter $1.3065, our stop point."

EUR/JPY: "After yesterday's advance the pair has reached the falling top line, the first of the resistances located in the 157.40/158.15 resistance zone. A break above it paves the way for 157.78 and more important 158.15, the confirmation point of a new high."

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS TEAM, UBS

EUR/USD: "(Wednesday's move) has signaled a resumption of the bear trend and exposes the $1.2865 January 12 low. Only a move above Friday's $1.3074 high would reinstate a bullish theme."

USD/CHF: "The recent sell-off from trend high resistance at 1.2575 francs was sharp, but so far it's holding above the 1.2376 reaction low from Jan. 23. Only a break there would damage the case for a continuance of a broader bull trend. Monday's 1.2519 marks resistance for the short run."

GBP/USD: "Has formed resistance at $1.9749 on Friday, and only a move above there would reinstate a bullish theme. Last week's $1.9482 marks key support."

USD/JPY: "Downward pressure from last week's 122.20 yen trend high in USDJPY is showing signs of subsiding, but it will take a rise above the 121.34 to 121.37 area to reasonably confirm a return of the broader bull trend. The first level marks the 0.618 retracement of the 122.20-119.96 decline. The second level is the most prominent reaction high recorded (on Friday) so far since the 122.20 high. On the downside, support formed yesterday at 119.96, forming a cluster with the 119.70 early-January breakout high."

EUR/CHF: "Broke support from the most recent reaction low at the 1.6124 low from Jan. 25. This puts the short-term bull trend from the 1.5810 late-November low on hold. The next important support is the 1.6059 reaction low from Jan. 8. Last Thursday's 1.6207 reaction high marks initial resistance."

EUR/JPY: "Has had a lot of volatility over the past two weeks but not much in the way of trend. Monday's 155.24 yen low and the 158.64 trend high define the band for now, and only a move out of it would maybe trigger some direction. Friday's 157.80 high marks initial resistance, whereas a small breakout high from yesterday at 156.20 marks mild support."

EUR/GBP: "Recent setback from last Wednesday's 66.46 pence high is most likely a correction. It's testing congestive support in the 65.82 to 65.72 area. Only a break there would damage the case for an eventual push above 66.46 and toward the next resistance at 66.69, a former support late October 2005."

Published on  Thu, Feb 8 2007, 11:07 GMT

Deutsche Bank, JP MORGAN, BNP PARIBAS,

Wed, Feb 7 2007, 09:42 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.2985) The dollar ended up on the back foot on Tuesday as the euro made its way towards $1.30 again. With the short-term crowd having already tried the single-currency from the long side since the day before, it came as no surprise that they were on the bid again. Against the backdrop of an obviously sideways market, they showed very little interest in data such as the lower eurozone retail sales and German factory orders. In addition, the belief is out in the market that euro is being supported in the lower $1.29’s by a long-term player. One of the few explanations for the dollar weakness yesterday was the oil price. The lower oil price was believed to have been supporting the dollar at the start of the year, but with oil prices higher it started to send out warning signals. Market participants are concerned that the US consumer might be hit by soaring fuel prices and not steer the economy to a soft landing. However, in the end the oil-price argument was little more than a weak attempt to justify short dollar-positions that already existed; the relationship between the crude prices and the dollar is ambiguous at best. For the time being the single-currency still finds itself in neutral territory. The bullish and bearish trigger points are at 1.3075 and at 1.2890, respectively.

USD JPY (120.40) As the dollar see-sawed yesterday, traders managed to find an explanation for every move. Foreign interest in US Treasuries because of the outside chance of a Fed rate cut was used to justify the dip-buying; on the other side, the G7 meeting is still an attention-grabber. However, the market’s conclusion is that no reference to yen weakness will appear in the official communiquי. Some are also focussing on Japan’s increasingly unpopular prime minister. Both of these are thought to justify yen weakness. Considering that carry-traders had ample opportunity to get in, this news flow seems to confirm that this was indeed the case. We would still opt for a bearish strategy, but only once 119.70 is undercut (the risk-limit would be at 120.10). Alternatively, one can turn bullish beyond 121.20. This would be for target 123.90.

EUR JPY (156.25) Apart from the European jawboning, hopes in the market are fading for a coordinated attempt to curb yen weakness during the G7 meeting. Hank Paulson is seen as more interested in tightening the screw on China than in siding with Europeans on the yen. This has reassured carry-traders who have again lifted the cross. The critical support is again distant at 154.35. We would we turn bearish only below there. To the upside, a crack of 157.80 will trigger our positive orientation.

GBP USD (1.9705) Sterling bulls were out again yesterday as M&A talks did the rounds. Yesterday’s strength violated our risk-limit (apologies). Cable is now in neutral territory again. Demand is visible at 1.9660 and at 1.9590. Moderate resistance is to be expected at 1.9755.

AUD USD (0.7775) The AUD strength violated our 0.7770 risk-limit and is now neutral. Overhead, hurdles stand at 0.7815 and at 0.7895. The latter needs to be overstepped before we can turn bullish. Supports are at 0.7735 and at 0.7680.

JP MORGAN

EUR/USD: "Grinding back up within the current range. Euro crosses remain heavy so the going will be tough and we suspect limited to $1.3020/50. Sell up there."

EUR/CHF: "Has remained under gradual pressure the last few days and it seems the top we were looking for a week ago is no in place for a correction back to 1.6050/00 francs, where we will look for a base."

GBP/JPY: "This is the most bullish wave count pressented which suggests we have completed a correction from the 242 yen highs. If so, the break up this morning should take us into a third wave which should acclerate up to and through 238.10 trendline resistance and carry the market on towards 240 then the highs. If we don't accelerate then something is wrong."

CLAUDE MATTERN, BNP PARIBAS

EUR/USD: "Seen rebounding towards $1.3065, as the next key level on the upside (below $1.2920, the main supportive area is at $1.2880/70)."

USD/JPY: "Finding strong support on 120.05 yen (former resistance line, as a bullish signal). A fall below 120.05 would argue for a bearish reversal, with a first target at 119.20. Resistance is at 120.50, with the bullish reversal level at 120.70. The daily indicators are moving downside. The hourly ones are supportive, confirming 120.05 as a key level. The currency pair is seen between 120.05 and 120.50. A breach of 120.05 would argue for a decline towards 119.20."

USD/CHF: "(The pair) capped by 1.2500 francs, is returning towards the bearish break level at 1.2380. A fall below that level would signal a bearish reversal with implication at 1.2180."

EUR/GBP: "finding new support at 65.75 pence, is doing a slight rebound, without much momentum ... Only a breach of (66.05 pence) level would argue for further strength, in direction of 66.40. Below 65.75, a new test of support in direction of 65.30 would be expected."

GBP/USD: "Rebounding from a short term support line at $1.9535, is approaching a first major resistance at $1.9750. A rise above that level would argue for further upward pressure, in direction of $1.99. The daily indicators are neutral around zero. The hourly ones are signalling some resistance."

EUR/JPY: "Seen testing resistance at 156.60 yen (50 percent correction), before a return below 155.80, in direction of 155.25 (bullish break level is at 157.40)."

Published on  Wed, Feb 7 2007, 09:42 GMT

Deutsche Bank, NOMURA TECHNICAL ANALYSTS, UBS, FORTIS BANK

Tue, Feb 6 2007, 10:54 GMT
by Sarah Vladimirsky

Finotec Group Inc.

Deutsche Bank

EUR USD (1.2740) Risk-aversion was the expression that was on every tongue during the first half of last month. A sell-off in the emerging markets, turbulence in the commodities arena, blue-chip indices shedding their entire year’s gains, an ongoing stand-off between the USA and Iran and a new one cooking with North Korea were all events of which investors were painfully aware. It may be difficult to see quite why the dollar would be so popularly considered a ‘safe-haven’. But it is important to understand that only rarely have so many investment dollars left US shores as they have in the last couple of years. To a US-investor, the homecurrency is a safe-haven, even though, on paper, the economy exhibits many of the risk factors of the countries that they are in such a hurry to leave. Despite the call to ‘retreat’, the euro managed to hold around the $1.25 level – probably as a result of the frequently cited quasi-official bids. In the meantime, the stock markets stabilised, as did those of the precious and base metals. The dust settled in Tehran and not even a rumour about a US spy-plane being shot down in North Korea could revive the mass-anxiety that prevailed earlier. But what about the safe-haven dollars? There was no rush to return to the recently abandoned emerging markets, so how does one justify holding on to the US-currency when the risk-aversion dies down? It was at this moment that the talk about an even more aggressive Fed began to gain ground. Ben Bernanke, the much-maligned Fed chairman, who up to a few weeks earlier was widely labelled a lame-duck, suddenly gained in credibility. And, the more the Fed made hawkish noises, the more the market seemed to like it – irrespective of the consequences higher rates might have on a slowing economy. Fed Funds at 6 percent entered the popular vocabulary, as did the prospect of a 50bp move. The column-inches and air-time that were devoted to this discussion far outweighed the probability of its occurrence as priced in the market. Our EUR-Sentiment Survey, for example showed medium-term traders going into the meeting with neutral opinions (at the year’s average). Thus, the postdecision surge was not due to stop-loss buying by speculative players. Rather, longterm demand from investors, for whom the FX market is essentially a by-product,simply dumped dollars that had outgrown their usefulness. The catalyst was as much the imminent end to the half-year as the outlook of the FOMC. The current medium-term apathy reflects the absence of positioning bias in the market. Few would be hurt, regardless of whether the single-currency rises or falls from here. The evidence of the year to date is that a strong euro attracts more scepticism than a weak. We suspect that a new bearish bias will be the next exploitable opportunity. This will require lower prices to be seen again, albeit, not necessarily lower than those seen last month. Above all, it will require time. But this bearish preference will be the basis for the next euro upmove beyond $1.33.

USD JPY (115.50) Medium-term traders probably went into last month with the long yen positions that they built up in anticipation of a BOJ rate hike, but they soon realised that the situation was not as straightforward as it appeared. Initially the Nikkei’s sell-off and the revelation of Fukui’s involvement in the Murakami fund seemed to undermine their confidence in rate hike forecasts. But these doubts were cast aside when the stock market regained its footing and the BOJ stressed that the storm surrounding its governor would not influence policy decisions. Talk about a possible missile test in North Korea was the next broadside to the ever popular view that the dollar is overvalued. But neither this, nor news that up to ten missiles were 6th July 2006 Monthly Forex Outlook Global Markets Behavioral Finance 2 Global Markets actually fired and that more were likely, has been able to shake this opinion. Thus we must imagine that the positional preferences are similar to last month: long-term demand is still encountering speculative sellers. The difference is that another month has gone by without any major dollar decline. Some of the best supply points have even been overtaken in the meantime. Further dollar gains – especially following a BOJ move – may exceed the tolerance of speculative shorts and trigger an upward spiral. This, we believe would be the case beyond last month’s 116.70
peak.

EUR JPY (147.05) Last month’s oscillations unfolded against the backdrop of a market already sensitised to the prospect of rate hikes and at a time when a slew of hawkish ECB comments were making the rounds. With the euro having cleared historical highs over the month, traders did not have much of a choice but to try and pick a top. However, they seemed to be cautious about it; as soon as their profits reached a big-figure or as soon as the price jumped to a fresh high, they covered their positions again. This, together with the general modesty of the positions, made any spectacular move highly unlikely. It also explains why the price only runs to fractionally higher highs before a new setback unfolds. One such setback last month ejected us from a bullish strategy. The outlook remains encouraging nonetheless. Even though the price moves higher, the top-pickers are not really losing money; many have even been winning. Thus the short-selling enthusiasm is likely to prevail for some time yet. Beyond 148.50, however, the many traders that currently attack the market from a bearish standpoint may find that the trend no longer offers such generous corrections.

EUR GBP (0.6940) The unwinding of medium-term short bets continued over the whole of last month. Sterling engagements entered into by traders who had grown drunk on a string of inward-bound M&A announcements, were steadily unwound as the Pound stubbornly refused to make any positive progress. The death of MPC,David Walton, mid-month added injury to tragedy; he had been the sole hawk on the committee. In itself, this news was not a market-mover, but it almost certainly contributed to the perception that short positions in the cross were simply not working. The ground covered over the last four weeks was but a modest two percent. And the price remains within a broad sideways range. But, as last month we continue to favour a return to the upper border of this range (0.7025).

AUD USD (0.7425) In mid-June, when the commodity market was going through a very rough patch, the AUD also came under pressure. However, the more analysts uncovered commodity-based reasons for the spot’s weakness, the more the price development of metals, especially the beloved gold price, and the Australian currency diverged. At that time, analysts were convinced that the tighter Chinese credit conditions, which were to be interpreted as a weakening factor for the global economy, would undermine demand for commodities and therefore for commodity currencies. This opinion was persistently held even though the relationship between gold and the A$ went out of sync. Slightly before the Fed ratehike, traders found New Zealand’s trade figures as another selling argument. This preference for the downside dragged the AUD all the way down to our 0.7285 risklimit during the course of last month before a short-covering rally hauled it higher again. Thus, the current bullish outlook and the 0.7860 objective are unchanged.

NOMURA TECHNICAL ANALYSTS

BUNDS: "Bunds made good on their technical break higher posted at the end of last week in Monday's trading with the market moving up to the value area around the 115.50 level. The break is now confirmed and has potential initially up to the 116.38 level where the first major retracement target intersects. "The final hurdle for the upside test is set at 115.75 which were the corrective highs from a couple of weeks ago. A failure there and we are simply in a range trade. However, with daily studies trending higher in support the odds favour a move higher being sustained over time and the ultimate stopping point for the move is likely to be the corrective highs at 116.55."A reversal through 115.20 would undermine the positive tone and suggest more sideways price action is likely. Below 114.85 and the odds of a breach of 114.55 lows goes up significantly."

RICHARD ADCOCK, UBS

BUNDS: "For today, while cautious, Bunds are set to try and develop the current recovery while they trade above 115.10 and as long as this remains the case the expectation is for limited corrections and further price upside.” The immediate resistance is marked by the 115.75 failure and clearly with this the 'last high' within the downtrend will be an important focus, with a break opening the door for a more extended recovery towards the 38 pct retracement point at 116.33.

SCHATZ: "For today, the risk while trades above the 103.425 mid-point are seen is for an extension of Friday's and yesterday's strength and while this remains the case the
expectation is for limited corrections and further upside.” The first resistance is offered by the 103.55 high, with breaks of this signaling a continuation of the advance to the
103.605 retracement level.” However, with no evidence of a longer term bullish shift in sentiment, I will be looking for a new failure signaled by either a be candlestick pattern within the daily chart and or Stochastic closing to the downside, each giving a new shorting signal."

KAREL DE BIE, FORTIS BANK

BUNDS: "Intraday, the outlook remains higher towards a test of 115.70/75. Should remain above support at 115.40/34 in order to keep the immediate outlook bullish and to avoid a deeper correction with 115.21 as next support.” Next week: The outlook is higher with 115.70/75 as first, and 116..25 as next target levels on the way up."

Published on  Tue, Feb 6 2007, 10:54 GMT