In This Issue:

EURUSD: Focus Turns To The 1.3831/1.3747 Levels - Having violated a layer of supports between the 1.4044 and the 1.4000 levels the past week, threats of further downside pressure is now expected towards its July 08’09 low at 1.3831 and then the 1.3747/33 levels....

AUDUSD: Third Week Of Weakness With Focus On The 0.8733 Level - The pair coasted to a third week of consecutive losses the past week pushing decisively through the 0.8936 level, its Jan 04’10 low and opening the door for further lower prices towards its Dec 24’09 low at 0.8733....


EURUSD

EURUSD

EURUSD: Focus Turns To The 1.3831/1.3747 Levels.

EURUSD - Having violated a layer of supports between the 1.4044 and the 1.4000 levels the past week, threats of further downside pressure is now expected towards its July 08’09 low at 1.3831 and then the 1.3747/33 levels, its Jun 16’09 low/.50 retracement(1.2328-1.5143 rally). A firm invalidation of the latter level will call for further downside weakness towards its .61 Fib retracement/May 18’09 low at 1.3422/09 where a cap may be seen thereby triggering a recovery higher. Both its weekly and daily studies are bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the other hand, recovery higher if activated will target its invalidated psycho level at the 1.4000 level ahead of the 1.4028/44 levels, its Jan 21’10/Aug 17’09 lows. We expect a combination of these two levels to reverse roles and provide resistance thereby turning the pair back down again. Further out, upside objectives are located at its Jan 25’10 high at 1.4194 and the 1.4216/62 levels, its Dec 22’09 low/Jan 08’10.


AUDUSD

AUDUSD

AUDUSD: Third Week Of Weakness With Focus On The 0.8733 Level

AUDUSD - The pair coasted to a third week of consecutive losses the past week pushing decisively through the 0.8936 level, its Jan 04’10 low and opening the door for further lower prices towards its Dec 24’09 low at 0.8733. That swing low is very important AUDUSD’s medium term technical outlook as a break of there will resume its declines from the 0.9404 level, 2009 high and break its medium term pattern of higher high and lows. In such a case, further downside weakness will shape up towards its Oct 02’09 low at 0.8567 and even lower. Its weekly stochsticsand RSI are both bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. Alternatively, if above the 0.9173 level, its Dec 14’09 high is traded our downside view will neutralized as wee will expect the pair to retarget its Jan 14’10 high at 0.9327 and ultimately its 2009 high at 0.9404. Beyond the latter will resume its medium term uptrend now on hold towards its July 27’08 high at 0.9592. Having said that, the weight of the evidence is more to the downside than the upside.