In This Issue:

EURUSD: Halts Gains, Triggers Corrective Pullbacks - Even though EUR still maintains its medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in Mar’09, nearer term that trend has stalled.

GBPUSD: Continued Weakness To Target 1.5802 Level And Beyond - With a second week below its invalidated MT trendlineseeing the pair taking out some of its key supports at the 1.6112,1.6000 & 1.5982.


EURUSD

EURUSD

EURUSD: Halts Gains, Triggers Corrective Pullbacks

EURUSD - Even though EUR still maintains its medium term uptrend triggered off the 1.2456 level in Mar’09, nearer term that trend has stalled and corrective pullbacks triggered pushing the pair lower to close at 1.4689 the past week. This is coming on the back of a failed test of the 1.4844 high(highest price since Dec’08) on Wednesday leaving the pair with downside risk towards the 1.4611 level, its Sept 21’09 low with a loss of the latter targeting the 1.4516 level where its Sept 14’09 low is located. The bigger test if continued corrective declines are seen lies at the 1.4446 level, its Aug 09 high. That level which now coincides with its MT rising trendlineshould provide a strong support and push the pair back up again. On the other hand, in order for its medium term uptrend to be triggered and its present corrective weakness cut short, a return above the 1.4844 level must occur putting the next upside at the 1.4875 level, representing its Sept 21’09 high ahead of the its psycho level at 1.5000 and then the 1.5082 level, its Aug 10’08 high. On the whole, though biased to the upside medium term ,EUR is now being challenged by corrective weakness


GBPUSD

GBPUSD

GBPUSD: Continued Weakness To Target 1.5802 Level And Beyond.

GBPUSD - With a second week below its invalidated MT trendlineseeing the pair taking out some of its key supports at the 1.6112,1.6000 & 1.5982 levels to close lower at 1.5927 last week, threats remain for GBP to continue to face downside side pressure in the days ahead. That puts the pair on the path to further downside towards its Jun 08’09 low at 1.5798 with a cut through there allowing further declines towards the 1.4808 level, its Dec 14’08 high. We envisage that these two levels should provide a respite for a halt in its nearer term declines if tested. Both its RSI and stochasticsare pointing lower suggesting further downside gains. Upside gains if triggered will target the 1.5982 level with break and close above there creating scope for further upmovetowards the 1.6112 level . Beyond there will clear the way for a rum at the 1.6468 level where its Sept 23’09 high resides with a breach of there extending gains towards the 1.6740 level, its Sept 11’09 high and then its YTD high residing at the 1.7041 level. All in all, having continued to weaken, GBP remains vulnerable to the downside nearer term.