EURUSD: Triangle Break Expected To Resolve To The Downside- As range trading dominates price action between the 1.2330 and 1.3298 levels, the symmetrical triangle formed within that range is expected to resolve to the downside. …

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Triangle Break Expected To Resolve To The Downside.

As range trading dominates price action between the 1.2330 and 1.3298 levels, the symmetrical triangle formed within that range is expected to resolve to the downside. This is based on the fact that the pair’s primary trend is down and the present range activities is coming on the heels of a decline off the 1.6038 high. We see a decisive break and hold below the 1.2330 level activating further weakness towards the 1.2134 level, its .50 Ret (its 0.8231-1.6038 high, monthly chart) and the 1.1827 level, its Mar’06 low. Daily studies are supportive of this view as they are trending lower.Conversely,if a followthrough to the upside on Friday’s reversal were to occur, its Nov 19’08 high at 1.2814 will be aimed at before its Nov 10’08 high at 1.2927.Other resistance levels are seen at the 1.3116 level, its Nov 05’08 high and then the 1.3259/98 level, its Oct 30’08 high/Oct 10’08 low .On the whole, a break of the latter or the 1.2330 level will be required to create meaningful directional moves.

Directional Bias:

Nearer Term –Bearish

Short Term –Bearish

Medium Term –Bearish

Performance in %:

Past Week: -0.89%

Past Month: -9.87%

Past Quarter: -10.40%

Year To Date: -13.78%

Weekly Range:

High -1.2814

Low -1.2423