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Timeframe Breakdowns

EURUSD. We have reached the target so where now?

Thu, Oct 29 2009, 08:09 GMT
by Ian Coleman

Turtle Futures

EURUSD
Morning. On Monday we wrote a report about EURUSD and that we expected a break of our wedge formation with a move down to 1.4700. We have reached the target so where now? On the Daily chart we have reached our solid trend line support again. This is the bottom of the large ascending wedge which we expect to break to the downside. I do not think this will happen on the first attempt. Looking at the 1 hr chart we have been in a great downward channel since the break. We have held onto our SMA extremely well. We have divergence on the MACD and the RSI (which went oversold first so the divergence is a more solid call) but we are in a strong trend (the ADX above the 200 SMA). We really need to see a break of the trend line and MA at 1.4750 to turn us short term bullish. Look for this to be confirmed by the break of the MACD trend line at X. Remember the long term picture is for a break through the daily wedge so this will only be a correction. Most of the other USD pairs have hit 261.8% of the first wave so are looking like they may turn around.
EURGBP
We broke out of our sideways move and triggered the trade at 0.9027. This was also confirmed by the MAC D cross. The long term target is at 0.8822. We are in a downward channel and below the MA. A break of 0.9000 trend line and MA would turn us short term bullish.
USDCAD
Fantastic move up out of the wedge (remember how we expect aggressive moves from wedges) and held a good channel. We have hit 261.8% with divergence so a great place to take profit. We are breaking the MA as we speak which is signal one. Signal two will be the break of the trend line at 1.0700 then watch for the MACD to cross the zero line at X. This could be a choppy move lower in three waves towards 1.0450 (61.8%)

If you would like to receive free analysis on the currency pairs please contact ian@turtlefutures.com. Have a great weekend

Published on  Thu, Oct 29 2009, 08:12 GMT