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Spot Silver Price

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Spot Silver Price

Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices ended yesterday's trading session in an almost identical fashion to spot gold, marginally lower overall but with the candle having a deep lower wick which found support from the 9 day moving average, in much the same way as Thursday's candle last week and suggesting that the bullish momentum still remains intact for the industrial commodity.  The key difference between gold and silver is evidenced by the weekly silver chart where the commodity is now running into heavy congestion between the $16.50 price handle and $18.50 region, an area which was created over a period of many weeks early in 2008.  Technically the weekly silver chart still remains bullish with silver prices trending higher in a nice channel with a series of higher highs and higher lows, but the congestion area outlined above will dictate the short term outcome for the commodity.  Should gold push higher then this may be sufficient to provide the necessary momentum for silver prices to breach this region but if spot gold fails at the 4 figure level once again then this could result in a reversal for silver prices which may fail to breach this deep consolidation area.

Support:   15.96     Resistance:  16.52

Support:   15.15      Resistance:  15.47

Support:   14.06      Resistance:  15.09

Published on  Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Sun, Sep 13 2009, 13:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices ended last week in positive territory following the sharp breakout in gold prices, which has led the industrial commodity higher as a result over the last two weeks, and the question now of course is whether this rally will continue in the short term, or will we see a pullback in due course. The answer to this question for silver traders lies in several different markets, and not least the prospect for gold prices in the short term, and the concern here is whether we are likely to see yet another failed attempt to break and hold above the $1000 per ounce level, or will this level become a key support area in due course. Technically the gold chart still looks strong, and should this level be cleared then this should provide sufficient momentum to pull silver prices higher as a result. However, silver has it's own problems, as we are now probing ever deeper into the strong resistance level in the daily silver chart, between the $16.50 per ounce level and $18.50 per ounce level - a deep and significant area of resistance which cannot be ignored. Indeed Friday's candle for spot silver hinted at a degree of bearishness, ending the silver trading session with a deep upper wick, outlining the failed attempt to push higher. With all three moving averages pointing sharply higher the silver chart still remain bullish, however the resistance outlined above may well prove to be definitive in the short term outlook for silver prices - if it is breached in due course then this will open the way to silver trading higher towards the $19 per ounce region, but should it remain intact then we may see a deeper reversal lower back to re-test the support now in place in the $15.25 per ounce level.

Support:   15.96     Resistance:  16.52

Support:   15.15      Resistance:  15.47

Support:   14.06      Resistance:  15.09

Published on  Sun, Sep 13 2009, 13:26 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Sep 9 2009, 12:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices continued their upwards momentum yesterday ending in a positive mood once again having broken above the $16 per ounce level once again, closing the silver trading session with a wide spread up bar and small shadow to the upside.  Technically the key level at $16.50 is now coming into play and may well dictate the future for silver prices in the short term as this is the lower level of a deep area of consolidation spread over a $2 per ounce price band.   If gold prices and silver prices continue to correlate positively, as they seem to be at present, and the strong surge continues for spot gold, then we should see an equivalent rise in silver prices which should drive them through this technical resistance area.  However, this band is both wide and deep and will therefore require considerable momentum to penetrate and breach this area.  If this can be accomplished in the medium term then this will open the way for a sustained move on the $20.50 per ounce region last seen back in early 2008.  With all three moving averages pointing higher and with the 9 week moving average having crossed the 14 week moving average on the weekly chart this is generally adding to the bullish sentiment for spot silver prices at present.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions buying on any short term intraday reversals with a view to building positions into a longer term trading scenario.

Support:   15.96     Resistance:  16.52

Support:   15.15      Resistance:  15.47

Support:   14.06      Resistance:  15.09

Published on  Wed, Sep 9 2009, 12:51 GMT

Spot Silver Trading Chart

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 08:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver was once again one of the main beneficiaries in the commodities market from the surge higher in spot gold prices following the strong breakout from the pennant pattern on the daily gold chart, with silver following suit and ending the day with wide spread up candle which broke above the $16 per ounce level in one bound!  The longer term picture for  the price of silver, will now depend on the performance of gold in the next few weeks, and with the precious metal looking certain to breach the $1000 per ounce, then the signs for silver are excellent.  Technically we have a deep level of resistance ahead on the daily silver chart, which now sits immediately above in the $16.30 to $18.50 price range, which will take some effort to breach.  However, given the strong performance of gold and the significant and dramatic breakout that has occurred in the last few days, the signs are positive and we should see a test of this level in the next few days. With a long weekend ahead, and with the US and Canadian markets closed on Monday for a national holiday, we may well see some profit taking today in the silver market as silver traders square their positions ahead of the weekend, so we could see a dip today following the last two days of sharp gains. However, with a resumption of normal silver trading volumes on Tuesday, the signs are excellent for silver bulls, and should we see the above resistance breached in due course, then an approach on the $21 per ounce level may be possible by the end of the year.

Support: 15.65   Resistance : 16.46

Support: 14.78  Resistance : 15.36

Support: 13.47  Resistance : 14.34

Published on  Fri, Sep 4 2009, 08:09 GMT

Spot Silver Trading Chart

Thu, Sep 3 2009, 11:14 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Not quite dramatic as the breakout in the gold chart, but nervertheless very welcome, as silver prices picked up on the bullish sentiment in the metals market, closing the day with a wide spread up bar, which finished well above the $15 per ounce price level outlined in yesterday's silver market analysis. and closing just below the next level of resistance that must now be breached in the $15.50 to $16.00 price range. With all three moving averages pointing higher and with very little ahead to slow progress, and given the breakout in gold prices which has established a new and upwards trend, then we should see a similiar pattern emerge in the silver market as silver prices move higher in a sustained manner in the next few weeks.

Published on  Thu, Sep 3 2009, 11:14 GMT

Silver Trading

Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Another interesting day yesterday for silver traders, as once again we saw silver prices edging higher in the silver trading session, with the prices of silver and the gold market apparently moving in marginally different directions once again. Whilst gold remains waterlogged in a tight trading range and consolidating daily into an ever more defined pennant formation, silver on the other hand continues to edge higher as it continues to creep towards the psychological $15 per ounce price handle once again, with yesterday's candle ending the silver trading session with a deep lower shadow, reinforcing the bullish sentiment that prevails at present. With the 9 day moving average now crossing the 14 day average, again this technical cross adds more weight to this view, and the key for the longer term will be whether we see a break and hold above the minor resistance level at 15.35. If so then we should see a retest of the $16 per ounce price point in due course, and from the last two days where we have seen strong moving average support, combined with deep lower shadows, I would expect to see silver prices trading higher today once again.

Support: 14.03     Resistance: 14.97

Support: 13.46     Resistance: 13.98

Support: 13.11     Resistance: 13.33

Published on  Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:53 GMT

Trading Silver

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

An interesting day for silver trading once again as the new week started in positive fashion, with a wide spread up bar, which closed above all three moving averages, and brushed aside the resistance in place at the 14.55 price level. It is interesting to note that gold and silver, whilst trading within the same pennant formation, ended the trading day with very different results, with gold prices ended the day lower, whilst silver traded strongly higher, a disconnect that we have noted before on several occasions. This apparent breakdown in the traditional correlation can partially be attributed to silver's classification as an industrial metal, whilst gold is of course classified as a precious metal, and therefore silver is more likely to be influenced by the fundamentals in the equity markets, whilst gold is more sensitive to risk and investor sentiment towards the US dollar. The commonality between the two commodities however, is that they are both currently trading in a pennant formation on the daily chart, and until this pattern is broken, it is unlikely that we will see any new trend established. Any breakout, when it occurs, will be violent, as the longer and tighter the consolidation, then the greater the associated momentum of the eventual breakout. As with gold, the current support seems to be coming from the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, suggesting that when it does arrive it will be to the upside.

Support: 14.03     Resistance: 14.97

Support: 13.46     Resistance: 13.98

Support: 13.11     Resistance: 13.33

Published on  Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:56 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices ended the silver trading week in a positive mood, with a wide spread up bar which closed well above all three moving averages and just below the $14.75 price handle outlined in Friday's silver market commentary. However, before before bullish silver traders get too carried away with Friday's strong performance for the industrial commodity, I felt it would be useful to highlight the pennant pattern which is now forming strongly on the daily silver chart, which is much the same as on the gold chart. The high of Friday was well within the upper boundary of the envelope, suggesting that we will have to continue to wait for any sustained break out from the consolidation of the last few weeks. My feeling is that whilst the breakout may well come to the upside in due course, we will have to wait for Labor Day and the start of the new month before a new trend in silver prices is established, and only a break above the upper boundary of the pennant formation will be sufficient to confirm that this technical set up has been breached and we can once again trade the trend with  any degree of confidence.

Support: 14.03     Resistance: 14.97

Support: 13.46     Resistance: 13.98

Support: 13.11     Resistance: 13.33

Published on  Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:48 GMT

Silver Trading Analysis

Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Just like the gold market, silver traders saw the price of silver attempt to break out of its recent sideways price action but unlike gold the silver chart has exhibited a less defined pennant pattern.  Yesterday's candle ended the silver trading session as a "hanging man" with a small body but deep lower wick indicative of the struggle between silver bulls and bears but with the bulls prevailing as they drove the silver price up through both the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  Such a move would have been aided and abetted by yesterday's weaker dollar and equity market gains which followed the release of the preliminary GDP figures for the US which came in marginally better than expected.   With the push through the 9 and 14 day moving averages takes silver prices past the $14.00 per ounce price point and traders will be looking at the $14.50-$14.60 price level which should be achievable if the dollar continues to weaken and equity markets hold onto their recent gains.  However, before silver bulls get too carried away a combination of the holiday weekend and month end will mean that traders will be squaring positions so anything can happen.   My suggestion is therefore to wait until early next week to see if yesterday's price momentum can be maintained. Have a great weekend.

Support: 14.03     Resistance: 14.56

Support: 13.46     Resistance: 13.98

Support: 13.11     Resistance: 13.33

Published on  Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:57 GMT

Silver Trading Chart 27 Aug 2009

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 09:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The divergence between silver and gold continued yesterday with silver trading marginally higher during the session, whilst gold price fell slightly, but the commodities market in general is trading sideways on thin trading volumes, and a  lack of fundamental news as we approach the end of the summer season and hopefully see some momentum injected into the markets as we enter a new month. Yesterday's candle on the silver chart was weak, ending the silver trading session as a small shooting star candle which once again tested the $14.50 per ounce level, only to fail once again and closed the trading session just below the 14 day moving average.  Once again we have a bearish signal, with yesterday's candle making this the third weak candle for the week so far, and with all three failing to breach the above level, it seems that it is only a matter of time before we see a fall in prices on the silver chart. Any move lower may only be a temporary one, as we have some solid support below, but should we see a breach of the $14 per ounce level, coupled with a break below all three moving averages then this could signal a deeper move in due course. My trading suggestion for today therefore is to look for small short positions on an intra day basis with small profit targets.

Support: 14.03     Resistance: 14.56

Support: 13.46     Resistance: 13.98

Support: 13.11     Resistance: 13.33

Published on  Thu, Aug 27 2009, 09:26 GMT

Silver Trading

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver prices followed much the same pattern as for gold today, although once again in a more muted vein, with silver trading marginally higher initially only to fall back later in the session to close with a weak candle signified with an upper shadow to the main body. As for gold prices, silver too finished the silver trading session once again below both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, suggesting a bearish tone to the daily silver chart, but with silver prices continuing to consolidate in the current range and with thin volumes in the silver futures market it is increasingly difficult to forecast the longer term trend with any degree of certainty. In simple terms the $12.50 and $15 per ounce price points define the current consolidation region, and until we see a sustained break above or below these levels, then any trading will be limited to intra day scalping opportunities. With the summer recess continuing and with national holidays in various countries, it seems that we may have to wait until early September, before normal service resumes when hopefully the silver market and silver trading prices will once again be re-invigorated as the markets kick back into life once again. In the meantime small intra day positions  are the suggested way to trade with a bias to the short side.

S: 14.47   R:  15.19

S: 13.16   R: 14.09

S: 12.03  R: 12.62

Published on  Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:58 GMT

Silver Trading

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 08:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver traders ended the week with some positive signals as the daily candle for Friday ended the silver trading session in positive territory, but sandwiched neatly between all three moving averages, with the low of the day finding some support from the 40 day moving average. Whilst not as dramatic a price move as for gold prices, the up move was signalled technically on Wednesday with the deep hammer candle suggesting a move higher was imminent. This duly arrived Friday and although somewhat muted  in its momentum, it will be interesting to see whether this bullish tone continues in the silver trading session at the start of the week. For any technical move higher we need to see a breach of both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages before trading in silver with any degree of certainty. However should this occur and we break and hold above the the $14.50 per ounce level then this should provide a platform for a move towards the $15 per ounce level once again where minor resistance awaits. With gold also waiting to breach a technical level, silver traders my do better to wait on the sidelines tomorrow as the trading session unfolds with gold once again leading the way for these two commodities.

Support: 13,46      Resistance: 14.62

Support: 13.23     Resistance: 13.45

Support: 12.67     Resistance: 13.10

Published on  Mon, Aug 24 2009, 08:07 GMT

Silver Trading

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 20:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As equity markets appear to be holding their nerve and the dollar teeters on the edge of yet more negative sentiment, silver prices are currently trying to re-base the $14 per ounce level and indeed the last four days' candles have all been characterized with lower wicks of varying lengths but interestingly all these wicks seem to be finding support at the 40 day moving average.  Wednesday's candle was particularly interesting as the depth of the lower shadow was extreme in comparison to the upper body suggesting that the commodity has found some support at this level.  The combination of the 40 day moving average with the support at this key price handle suggests that we should see silver prices rise in the short term.  My trading suggestion for tomorrow, Friday position squaring notwithstanding, is to look for small long trades on an intra day basis using the 30 minute to find suitable entry and exit points but keeping in mind that the $14.50 resistance level above is extremely strong and will take a degree of effort and momentum to penetrate.  Only a break and hold the $15 per ounce level will indicate a continuation of the current recent trend which began in early July and until this occurs silver trading will be limited to (as for gold) to a series of short term scalping opportunities.  Finally keep an eye on the USD Index which still looks feeble, to say the least, and in danger of a total collapse.

Published on  Thu, Aug 20 2009, 20:40 GMT

Silver Trading

Wed, Aug 19 2009, 20:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Further falls in the Shanghai Composite spooked the silver market in early trading with the initial losses then partially recovering as crude oil prices soared following much better than expected inventory data at Cushing.  Whilst silver prices closed the session marginally lower the daily candle ended with a deep lower wick suggesting that a degree of bullish sentiment has now re-entered the silver market and as a result we should expect to see a small rise in silver prices in early trading tomorrow.  This analysis of the silver market is reinforced by the fact that the close of the day seemed to find support from the 40 day moving average once again, confirming the previous two days where both candles also found a modicum of support.  Whilst silver prices remain relatively range bound silver trading will be limited to intra day opportunities rather than longer term position trades and any rise in silver prices tomorrow may be limited to the underside of the next resistance level at $14.26 per ounce price point.  Only a break and hold above the $15 per ounce level will indicate that a reversal in sentiment has occurred.  As always silver trading must be seen against the backdrop of the summer lull, thin markets and frayed nerves in equity markets which will continue until September when most markets should be back operating at full capacity.

Published on  Wed, Aug 19 2009, 20:56 GMT

Silver Trading Chart

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Unlike spot gold, spot silver failed to bounce but rather ended the silver trading session with a small long legged doji which has several interesting characteristics which could suggest a minor reversal higher tomorrow.  The first point of note is that the low of the day found support from the 40 day moving average which replicated Monday's price action on the silver chart suggesting that we are seeing some support from the moving average at this price level.  Secondly the two candles created have formed a neat tweezer bottom formation which whilst only minor, may also suggest a small rise in silver prices.  Finally the doji candle is generally indicative of a market about to turn and this may provide us with a short term silver trading opportunity to the long side.

Support & Resistance for Spot Silver Prices

S1:   13.64    R1:     14.43
S2:   13.06    R2:     13.44
S3:   12.47    R3:     12.94

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 21:07 GMT

Silver Trading Analysis 18 August 2009

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 05:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Like gold silver too suffered yesterday ending the silver trading session with a wide spread down bar which broke below the $14 per ounce price point during the day although it did manage to recover marginally during the latter part of the silver trading session.  The candle closed with a small lower shadow which seemed to find some support from the 40 day moving average, an encouraging signal for silver trading bulls, and as a result we may see a small bounce in silver prices tomorrow as bargain hunters enter the silver market to buy on the recent two day reversal.  It is interesting to note that spot silver prices also found support from the consolidation in the $14 per ounce region adding to the view that there may be some buying opportunities in tomorrow's silver trading session.   However, in the medium term it appears that the fundamentals in the wider market are now driving silver prices as global equity markets continue to fall as traders and investors become risk averse once again resulting in a strengthening of the US Dollar.  Given the bearish picture on the gold chart it seems likely that silver too will follow suit in due course and therefore in the medium term it appears as though we may experience a possible reversal even as low as a re-test of the $12.75 per ounce level, but only if we see a break and hold below the 40 day moving average coupled with a crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages with a breach of the $14.00 per ounce support level.

Short term bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 05:42 GMT

Silver Trading Charts

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 10:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Like gold silver trading too benefited yesterday from both a weaker Dollar and a rally in copper.  In addition silver trading prices were also boosted by bullish data from France and Germany suggesting that Europe's two largest economies may be pulling out of the current recession/depression.  As a result of this rosy optimism silver trading prices soared 53 cents higher to finish at $15.070 per ounce which from a technical perspective was highly significant as silver prices once again breached the $15.00 per ounce level.  Technically yesterday's candle on the silver trading chart ended the session as a wide spread up bar with no wicks and therefore suggesting further bullish momentum in the short term.  With all three moving averages now pointing higher the only concern remains the resistance between $15.00 and $15.50 and should this be breached during silver trading today or Monday then we should see an attack on the $16.00 per ounce level once again.  With the weekend ahead and with relatively thin volumes in silver futures, we may see an element of profit taking today as traders square their positions, so any trading today must be approached with a degree of caution.

The short and long term trends are bullish while the medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $14.510 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.532 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $14.480 (low of 07/08/09)                                   Resistance: $15.342 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $14.400 (low of 06/08/09)                                   Resistance: $15.130 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Aug 14 2009, 10:53 GMT

Silver Trading News

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver trading yesterday was characterized by a degree of volatility ahead of the FED statement which, once released, saw the price of silver manage to hold onto its early gains as equity markets responded favourably and the US Dollar weakened.  Overall silver trading prices ended the day 23 cents higher to close at $14.153 per ounce.  Although the FED statement was more or less the same as that of July, only varying by a mere 10 words, markets seem as determined as ever to maintain their optimistic mood.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle was good news for silver trading bulls as it ended the day positive from both a technical and sentiment standpoint.  The deep lower wick found support from the 14 day moving average and the close of the day ended above the 9 day moving average suggesting that we should see silver prices rise today as we break back above the $14.70 resistance and move higher to re-test the next level in the $15 per ounce region.   My silver trading suggestion is to look for small longs on an intra day basis but while keeping a close eye on the US Dollar for any signs of a change in investor sentiment.

The short and long term trends are bullish while the medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $14.110 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.890 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $14.010 (low of 04/08/09)                                   Resistance: $14.700 (high of 10/08/09)

Support:    $13.870 (low of 03/08/09)                                   Resistance: $14.608 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:35 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Just as with gold silver prices ended their trading session completely flat as traders and investors wait on the FOMC rate decision and statement (of which the latter will carry far more importance to the markets) due out later today.  Overall silver prices ended the session 1 cent up and settled at $14.340 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the silver trading session perched neatly on the 9 day moving average suggesting that the price of silver may have found of modicum of support.  However, with the bearish tone evident in the gold price chart and with the markets now waiting for the FED statement, today is likely to be marked by another session of indecision and drift with prices oscillating around the $14.00 per ounce level.  Once the statement has been released and the markets have had time to absorb its contents, hopefully we will have some clear definition and guidance for the price of silver.  However, any break below the $13.76 support level coupled with a breach of the 40 day moving average will suggest that the bearish sentiment is set to continue.

The short term is bearish, the medium term sideways and the long term bullish.

Support:    $14.230 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.890 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $14.120 (low of 19/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.700 (high of 10/08/09)

Support:    $14.010 (low of 04/08/09)                                   Resistance: $14.490 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:52 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 10:55 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The modest rebound in the US Dollar currency continued yesterday and this appears to have been sufficient to depress silver prices down along with spot gold on a day when copper too was hit by a bout of profit taking.  Overall spot price silver lost a total of 26 cents to settle at $14.330 per ounce but did find a modicum of support at the 9 day moving average.  From a technical perspective the silver chart is still looking mildly bearish although when compared with the gold chart it is certainly not exhibiting the same strong bearish signals which has seen the price of gold fall very sharply over the last two gold trading sessions.  Whilst yesterday's candle on the silver chart ended the session in a downbeat mood the price action was contained within a relatively narrow range, and somewhat surprising following the previous week's three shooting star candles.  In other words despite the technical picture silver prices are managing to hold up rather well and appear to have found some support from the 9 day moving average. Finally with the markets now waiting for the outcome of the two day FOMC meeting the best we can hope for silver prices a firm signal once this meeting is over.

The short and medium term sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.278 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.035 (high of 06/08/09)
Support:    $14.120 (low of 19/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.890 (high of 07/08/09)
Support:    $14.010 (low of 04/08/09)                                   Resistance: $14.700 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Aug 11 2009, 10:55 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 09:15 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's shooting star candle on the daily silver chart made it three in a row and reinforced, from a technical perspective,  the bearish sentiment currently in place for the price of spot silver.  With three such consecutive signals of weakness it would seem likely that silver prices will follow gold lower today and the only question remains is the depth of any such move.  This decline in the price of silver may be relatively short lived as the weekly chart is still presenting us with a positive picture with the weekly close holding above all three moving averages.   The first level of support on the daily silver chart is now coming into play in the $14.25 per ounce level and should this be breached we could see a drop to the price band at $13.85 per ounce.  Should this price level fail to hold then we could see an even deeper move back down as far as $13.50 or below, particularly if the price of silver breaches both the 9 and 14 day moving averages.   The correlation between gold and silver prices failed to hold on Friday with gold falling significantly whilst silver managed to contain any losses.   Part of the reason for this is silver's use as an industrial metal which should therefore benefit from any positive moves in equity markets as the recession/depression begins to recede and risk appetite returns once again.

The short term is bearish, the medium term sideways & the long term bullish.

Support:    $14.480 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $15.260 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $14.400 (low of 06/08/09)                                   Resistance: $15.035 (high of 06/08/09)

Support:    $14.120 (low of 19/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.890 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Aug 10 2009, 09:15 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The effect of today's Non Farm Payroll Data cannot be underestimated for a number reasons as it proves, once and for all, the cat's cradle that is the financial markets.   Should the numbers come in better than expected then this should prove beneficial for equities as the market has proof positive that the worst is definitely over and the recent stock market rally has been founded on solid fact rather than mere sentiment and wishful thinking, low volumes notwithstanding.  This picture would also confirm that the worst of the downturn in the housing sector is over and that a stable housing market could even feed through into accurate pricing for the sub prime mortgages still sitting on the Banks' balance sheet.  In addition it would signal that the great American consumer is now ready to start spending once again.  The consequence of this scenario is that the US Dollar would continue to weaken and commodities, such as spot silver continue higher.   However, if the number is worse than expected then clearly the worst is not over, consumer spending will fail to pick up, and equity markets could suffer a serious correction.   This could lead to a bounce back in the US Dollar which would trigger a fall in silver prices and perhaps establish that despite China and demand from the emerging markets, the fundamentals do not support the current price level for spot silver.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the silver chart provided us with an extremely worrying signal, ending the silver trading session as a shooting star - a bearish signal.   What is particularly concerning is that the high of the upper shadow failed to breach the $15 per ounce level where strong resistance now awaits.  In addition this bearish signal should be read in conjunction with that on the daily gold chart where we concluded with a perfect long legged doji, which again is symptomatic of a reversal in the recent rally or, at best, indecision in the market.  The depth of any move lower for silver prices will largely be dictated by the $14.24 price point and should this region fail to hold then we could see a deeper move to re-test the bottom of the support level in the $13.50 price band.  Should the move be accompanied by a breach by one, or all three, of the moving averages then this will confirm any bearish move lower.

Published on  Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:46 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 08:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Much like gold silver prices took a bit of a breather yesterday but overall the sentiment on the silver chart still remains bullish, and in some ways, more so than gold.  Yesterday's candle ended the trading session with a small positive body with a small upper shadow which appeared to be testing the resistance level at $15 per ounce which is now immediately ahead.  This is the start of a major area of congestion between the $15 and $16 per ounce price level and for the current rally to continue in the price of silver we will need to see a break and hold above the upper level of this price region.   With all three moving averages providing solid support and with the prospect of gold dragging silver prices higher we should see the bullish momentum continue for the next few days provided the resistance outlined above does not become an insurmountable obstacle.  The fundamental picture for silver is largely being driven by investor attitude to risk and, in particular, towards the S&P 500 and US Dollar which are inversely correlated at present.

Published on  Thu, Aug 6 2009, 08:49 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:45 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread up bar on the daily silver chart reinforced the bullish momentum outlined in yesterday's market commentary for silver prices which was indicated by the gapped up opening of Monday morning.  From a technical perspective the deep lower shadow of yesterday's candle suggests that we should see a further push higher in spot silver prices in due course with the $15 per ounce price handle now clearly in sight.   This price action is reinforced by the moving averages which are all pointing higher, with the 40 day now crossing below the 9 and 14 day.  In addition any continuation in recent Dollar weakness and positive investor sentiment towards riskier assets will also add a further boost to the price of silver.  However, we do need to be aware that should either of these elements change then the spot price of silver may suffer as a consequence.  My trading suggestion is to continue to look for small longs using the hourly chart for suitable entry and exit points but keeping in mind the current state of the sentiment in the broader markets, especially equities.

Published on  Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:45 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's gap up (rising window) in spot silver prices has given us a strongly bullish signal for two reasons.  First the gap up in itself is an indication that the move has bullish momentum but secondly and, perhaps more importantly, the price of silver hurdled a key resistance level on the silver chart at the $14 per ounce price point.  Both these factors combined to provide clear evidence of bullish market sentiment, and indeed this view is confirmed by the 9 day moving average which has now crossed above the 40 day moving average with the 14 day moving average about to follow suit.  Trading in silver is very much a dollar play at present and one of its main drivers along with continued positive risk appetite by traders and investors who are buying into equities and commodities who seem to think that we are back to the heady days of 2004 when the world economy was growing at 5% per annum.   While this market mood persists then spot silver prices should continue to climb.

Support:    14.09                            Resistance:  14.36

Support:    13.80                            Resistance:   13.97

Support:    13.31                             Resistance:  13.77

Published on  Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:37 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 11:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Like spot gold the silver chart too posted a sudden and dramatic reversal on Friday with silver prices surging through all three moving averages to close the session just shy of the $14 per ounce level and ending on a wide spread up bar.  This volatile and unpredictable price action came as a result of chronic US dollar weakness once again and equity market optimism, but as I have explained on the commentary for gold prices today the associated volume in the gold futures did not suggest that Friday's move was a true reflection of market conditions.   Indeed with such low volume on a wide spread up bar one can only conclude using volume spread analysis, that this was a trap up move.   Meanwhile this morning's silver prices this morning have opened significantly higher with a gap up move with the opening price well above the $14 per ounce level and vaulting over the resistance in place at this level.  However, I do advise caution given the very low volumes seen in the gold futures market on Friday and it will come as no great surprise to see a sudden and equally violent move lower.   However, given the state of the US dollar as evidenced on the Dollar Index which closed on Friday at its lowest level since September last year, this seems unlikely at present and both gold and silver are basically a dollar play.  My trading suggestion is to follow the Dollar intra day.

Support:    $13.64        Resistance:  $14.05
Support:    $13.27        Resistance:  $13.52
Support:    $12.65        Resistance:  $13.10

Published on  Mon, Aug 3 2009, 11:07 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:27 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's candle on the silver chart mirrored that of spot gold, ending the day with a wide spread down bar which closed well below all three moving averages and confirmed the bearish engulfing candle highlighted in Tuesday's silver report.  More worryingly the low of the day failed to find any support from the 14 day moving average with the 40 day now turning sharply lower. The key as to whether this is a short term reversal, or the start of a longer term trend, will lie with the various support levels as silver prices move lower, with the first of these now firmly on the horizon in the $12.90 per ounce price point. This is a solid block of potential support following the consolidation at the level earlier in the year, but should this fail to hold, then we could see a much deeper move in due course, possibly as deep as $11.80 per ounce.  Should this second level fail, then the silver bulls will have to wait for some considerable time to see a fresh attempt to climb back to the $16 per ounce which was our initial long term target for silver prices. The worrying thing at present is that this current move is accompanied with considerable momentum, given the wide spread nature of the candles of the last two days, so any attempt to halt the fall will require some significant buying from the silver bulls.  In addition silver prices are also suffering from a return to US Dollar strength as investors shy away from riskier assets and we should not underestimate the recent fall in the Shanghai Composite which saw a 7% sell off the other day.  Back in 2007 it was a sell off in this index which heralded the start of the current downturn!

Support  12.92   Resistance  13.34
Support  12.46   Resistance    12.97
Support  11.84    Reistance     12.43

The short term outlook is bearish, the medium term is bearish and the long term is sideways.

Published on  Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:27 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 08:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

From a technical perspective, yesterday's wide spread down bar on the daily silver chart, comes as no great surprise, and as outlined in my market commentary for the 28th July 2009, I had become increasingly concerned at the weakness in the daily spot gold chart.  Despite silver's brave attempt to struggle higher over the last few days, the price was eventually dragged lower as the weakness in the gold chart duly converted into a steep fall for the industrial commodity, which ended the trading session with a wide spread down bar, closing below the 40 day moving average, but finding some support from the 9 day average.  This candle has now given us a clear bearish engulfing signal which we would be wise to consider carefully, and the question now, of course, is whether this is simply a short term reversal lower, or the start of a much deeper move? The answer will largely depend on the support levels lying below and whether the price of silver can find the required support to bounce back. The first of these is at the $13 per ounce level, but should this fail to hold then a re-test of the $12.50 level would seem likely.  For any move higher we now need to see the $14 per ounce level breached, but as we saw from yesterday's price action, this has once again proved the be spot silver's Achilles heel with a rerun of the failed push higher and subsequent fall of late June now a distinct possibility.

The short term outlook is bearish, the medium term sideways the the long term bullish

Support 13.12 Resistance 13.87
Support 12.56 Resistance 13.12
Support 12.10 Resistance 12.45

Published on  Wed, Jul 29 2009, 08:07 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As I outlined in one of my market reports last week, there seems to be a slight disconnect between silver prices and gold prices at present, with silver edging ever higher (albeit weakly), whilst gold prices appear to have and moved sideways with an ever increasing sign of weakness in the daily chart.  Yesterday's price action was no different, with silver closing the trading session higher once again with a relatively wide spread up bar, closing marginally above both the 40 day moving average, and the psychological $14 per ounce price level once again.  With the price of silver now battling its way through some heavy congestion in the $14 to $14.50 price region, any technical weakness could result in a very sharp reversal, and therefore for the move to be confirmed we need to see a break and hold above the $14.50 price level, coupled with some 'clear-water' to the downside on the 40 day moving average. My main concern at present however remains the gold chart, generally a good barometer of commodity prices and, in particular silver, which from a technical perspective is now starting to look increasingly weak - so we need to trade with care in spot silver!

Support : 13.87    Resistance : 14.46
Support : 13.26    Resistance : 13.68
Support : 12.68    Resistance : 13.11

Published on  Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jul 27 2009, 07:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Whilst gold and silver normally correlate closely, last week was an encouraging one for the price of silver which continued to ease higher, in contrast to gold prices, which stalled and moved sideways for much of the week.  Friday's candle on the daily silver chart closed the week in positive mood, with a narrow spread up bar, and penetrating and holding deep into the resistance level below the $14 per ounce level, which is now on the horizon. With the gap now closing between the current price and the 40 day moving average, we need to see a break and hold above this key technical indicator which will then provide us with a degree of comfort as we look for silver prices to push higher this week.  As with gold, silver prices will also be boosted by ongoing dollar weakness (which shows little sign of abating) and, as an industrial metal, silver should also benefit from a buoyant and positive equity market.  However, for any sustained longer term rally we do need to see a break and hold above the $14.50 per ounce level which would confirm that the bullish tone is firmly established once again.

Support      13.64          Resistance   14.12
Support      13.24          Resistance   13.53
Support      12.76          Resistance   13.19

Published on  Mon, Jul 27 2009, 07:04 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 10:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

In yesterday's market commentary for silver prices, I expressed some concerns regarding the weak signals of the last few days, with each day's price failing to breach the $13.75 per ounce level before falling back, and whilst yesterday's candle finally managed to hold above this point, the candle was far from convincing, ending the day as a small upthrust or shooting star pattern, which suggests weakness once again. Indeed when we analyse the daily gold chart, the picture here is bearish in the short term, with a strong shooting star candle yesterday, suggesting that we may well see a fall in both gold and silver prices in the short term as a result.  For any sustained break higher and for these signals to be ignored we need to see a break and hold above the 40 day moving average, coupled with a breach of the strong resistance in place at the $14 per ounce level.  However, the market now appears to be 'tired' and with little perceived momentum to move higher, spot silver prices will no doubt fall back should the above factors not materialise.  As with gold the key to the price of silver may lie in both the weekly and monthly charts which I will be considering early next week.

Support    13.39           Resistance   13.89
Support    13.03           Resistance   13.34
Support    12.65           Resistance   12.98

Published on  Fri, Jul 24 2009, 10:56 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:01 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The price of silver closed marginally higher yesterday, ending the trading session with a narrow spread doji candle, with a deeper wick to the lower side which seemed to find some support from the 9 day moving average. In common with many other markets, the price of silver ebbed and flowed throughout the day as Ben Bernanke's comments were first absorbed, then analysed and dissected for any hidden messages or signals as the the FED's view of the current economy and their likely fiscal and monetary policy moving forward. From a technical perspective yesterday's candle provided little in the way of any confirmation that the bullish recovery is likley to continue, and indeed the alignment of the highs of the last three days would suggest otherwise, and a very similar pattern to that on the daily gold chart. Whether this results in a short term reversal, only time will tell, but the key to any sustained move higher for the price of silver, will be a break and hold above the strong resistance in the $13.80 to $14.50 price band, coupled with silver prices crossing and holding above the 40 day moving average. Should these two factors combine, then we should see the bullish rally firmly re-established once again, with a sustained move higher in due course, which seems to be the picture for it's more illustrious cousin, gold.  In addition silver may also benefit from the general bullishness of the industrial metal sector which has seen both copper and iron ore hit fresh highs recently.  Although much of the recent commodity rally has been attributed to "restocking" while prices were low there does appear to be some evidence that demand is likely to pick up towards the latter part of 2009.  If this is the case then there is no reason to suppose that the price of silver should not benefit too.

Support   13.60     Resistance   13.85
Support   13.25     Resistance   13.54
Support   12.86     Resistance   13.18

Published on  Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:01 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver prices followed much the same pattern as for gold yesterday, trading in a narrow range and ending the session marginally lower on the day with a narrow spread doji candle with small shadows both top and bottom. The price action for the price of silver yesterday (as indeed for many markets) was largely dictated by the comments of FED Chairman Ben Bernanke, as he began the first of a two day testimony on the US economy in Washington. This is scheduled to continue today, so we will no doubt see a further day of indecision and doubt as the markets hang on every word, duly analysing his statement and comments for any underlying signals as to the direction of fiscal and monetary policy in the medium term.

From a technical perspective it is interesting to note that whilst the general direction of gold and silver prices is correlating, the general strength or weakness of the move is less well defined.  For gold, the current price is sitting well above all three moving averages which are providing strong support to a move higher. For spot silver prices however, the picture is slightly different with the 40 day moving average sitting well above the current silver price, and weighing heavily downwards, a far from bullish picture. This is reinforced by the fact that the level of 'clear air' above is deep, so we have some way to go before this important technical indicator becomes supportive once again, and only a break and hold above the 40 day moving average, coupled with penetration of the $14.24 per ounce level, will re-establish the bullish view, which is currently in play in the gold chart.

Support  13.25                       Resistance 13.75
Support  12.86                       Resistance  13.10
Support   12.11                     Resistance  12.47

Published on  Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:36 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's candle came as no great surprise, as silver prices followed gold higher,, ending the trading session with a wide spread up bar, and which reinforced the 'hammer' candle of Friday which hinted at a move higher, which we duly saw on Monday.  Whilst the price of gold managed to break and hold above the 40 day moving average, spot silver has some way to go to breach this important technical level, and with so much clear air still above, the outlook on the daily silver chart is less clear cut, particularly as we are now running into a serious resistance area between $13.60 and $14 per ounce.  Only a break and hold a above this level in the next few days, coupled with the 9 day moving average crossing the 14 day can provide the necessary momentum for silver prices to climb higher once again, particularly if spot silver closes above the 40 day moving average as I expect in due course.  The bullish tone of the silver chart is really not surprising given the mood of optimism which has permeated the equity markets following better than expected earnings results in the US.  However, today and tomorrow sees Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, due to testify before the Senate Banking Committee in Washington.  His testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he will read a prepared statement (a text version of which is available on the Fed's website at the the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session.  As the questions are not known beforehand the markets will seize on unguarded or unscripted comments, often resulting in heavy market volatility.   Silver traders will be particularly keen to hear the Fed's exit strategy from its current loose monetary policy together with the likely direction of short term interest rates and the fate of the US Dollar, all of which can impact the price of spot silver in the short, medium and longer term.   My trading suggestion for today is to step aside and wait for the markets to digest the statement and subsequent comments.

Support         13.30                  Resistance         13.69

Support         13.00                  Resistance         13.42

Support         12.65                  Resistance          13.15

Published on  Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:38 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 16:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver followed spot gold as it too responded to renewed investor appetite for risk and a weaker US Dollar.  Spot silver gained a total of 15 cents on Friday reading an inter day high of $13.467 per ounce ending an excellent week for silver prices on the daily silver chart, with five straight day of gains, and reversing the downwards trend of the previous week.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle ended the trading session with a narrow body, but a deep lower wick, nearly always suggestive of a move higher and which has indeed been the case in trading so far today and continuing with Friday's positive sentiment into the new trading week.  It is also interesting to note that the low of the session found good support from the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, which is always a positive signal, suggesting that these technical indicators are supporting the upwards move.  However, before we become too optimistic, silver prices have a long way to go before recovering their levels of early June, and the first barrier to any further progress is the significant resistance now in place at the $14 per ounce price level, which may provide stiff opposition to a move higher. Only a break and hold above this level, coupled with a breach of the 40 day moving average will provide us with further positive signals and confirm that the decline of the last few weeks has now been consigned to history.  In the short term we need to see a breach of the interim resistance at the $13.75 level, and should this be achieved then $14 becomes the next likley target for the price of silver in the medium term.

The short term trend is bullish,  the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $ 13.280 (low of 02/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.868  (high of 01 /07/09)

Support:    $ 13. 130 (low of  16/07/09)                                  Resistance: $13.830  (high of 06/0 5/09)

Support:    $ 13.065  (low of 17/07/09)                                  Resistance: $13.800  (high of 02/07/09)

Published on  Mon, Jul 20 2009, 16:32 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite managing to close marginally above the $13.00 per ounce price handle spot silver prices were restricted to a very narrow trading range as the markets try to decide whether the recent renewed optimism in equities is simply smoke and mirrors or the start of a sustained recovery.  This uncertainty can be seen clearly on the S&P 500 chart where both the bulls and the bears are claiming that the head and shoulders pattern is working in their favour.   Market players who dismiss technical analysis completely claim that in effect both the bulls and the bears see what they want to see, and the chart is merely confirming their own prejudices.  Yesterday's candle on the silver chart failed to provide any follow through from the strong move higher of Wednesday and the only positive one can take from yesterday's doji candle is that the open and close managed to remain above the 14 day moving average which also seemed to provide some support to the low of the day.  Whether this is the beginning of a sustained move higher or simply a small market correction in a deeper move, only time will tell.  As outlined in yesterday's market commentary there is still a huge amount of clear water between the current price and the 40 day moving average, and until we silver prices climb and hold above this technical indicator coupled with a breach of the strong resistance in the $14.00 per ounce level, then I would suggest then any move higher may only be temporary and based on technical factors and triggers along.  With traders likely to be squaring positions ahead of the weekend and with little in the way of fundamental news due for release today, the trading range may well be narrow and restricted around the current price point. Overall spot silver finished 2 cents higher at $13.300 per ounce.

The short and medium term is sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $13.130 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.592 (high of 05/05/09)

Support:    $13.040 (low of 07/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.447 (high of 06/07/09)

Support:    $12.880 (low of 15/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.335 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:48 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As with spot gold, spot silver prices too rallied strongly yesterday, even managing to outperform gold in percentage terms as the silver chart responded to the general feel good factor emanating from the equity markets. This in turn sparked a dramatic slide in the US Dollar as investors rediscovered their appetite for risk, believing that the global economy may now recover sooner rather than later.  From a technical perspective once spot silver prices had powered their way through the $13.00 per ounce price handle, no doubt triggering the buy orders clustered at this level, they managed to gain a total of 40 cents on the day closing out at $13.300.   The wide spread up bar opened the day below the 9 day moving average but closed marginally above, suggesting a degree of momentum, however, with substantial resistance ahead and huge clear water between the current price point and the 40 day moving average it is too early to suggest that this rally will be sustained.  Much will depend on the fundamental landscape which is being driven by reduced risk aversion in the equity markets with a consequent decline in the US Dollar which is weakening daily.  With the earnings season in full swing and with bellwether, blue chips stocks as IBM and Google reporting later today it will be interesting to see whether this rally continues or turns out to be no more than a short squeeze.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.880 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.592 (high of 05/05/09)

Support:    $12.780 (low of 14/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.447 (high of 06/07/09)

Support:    $12.750 (low of 09/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.377 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:47 GMT

Spot Silver Prices

Wed, Jul 15 2009, 11:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices too moved higher yesterday, touching an inter day high of $13.00 per ounce on the silver chart before falling back to settle at $12.90 on the day.  This move higher was partly as a result of a rally in copper prices, which as has been said many times before, is the bellwether for the industrial metals sector and partly as a result of creeping optimism on the back of the Goldman Sach's results.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up candle partially confirmed the hammer candle of Monday and whilst it is still too early to say whether this reversal in the fortunes of silver prices will continue in the medium term it is certainly a positive signal, and indeed one that has followed through in early trading this morning.   This resurgence in spot silver has largely been prompted by a move lower in the Dollar Index with the daily candle breaking below all three moving averages giving the US Dollar a distinctly bearish tone so far.  For any continuation of this reversal higher into an established trend we need to see a break and hold above the 14 day moving average which may come later today, followed by a penetration of the resistance now ahead in the $13.75 to $14.25 price range and should this occur then we can say with some confidence that the recent decline in silver prices has been halted.  Any sustained rally will be largely dependent on the fortunes on the US Dollar and consequently the performance of the equity markets as they move through the earnings season.   My trading suggestion is to look for small long positions using the hourly chart.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.780 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.240 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $12.510 (low of 10/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.150 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $12.430 (low of 13/07/09)                                   Resistance: $13.000 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 15 2009, 11:58 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jul 14 2009, 09:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's market action appeared to be one of "buy the rumour" as spot silver prices gained 17 cents to settle at $12.830 per ounce although at one point during the trading session silver did touch a low of $12.430 per ounce.  Despite this minor rally - a likely combination of short covering, mild optimism in advance of the earnings season and a slide in the US dollar - the silver chart still looks decidedly bearish.  Technically yesterday's candle ended the session as a small hammer which may suggest a short term rally for silver and it is interesting to note that yesterday's open was marginally gapped up from Friday's close.  If this rally is to have any "legs" then we will need to see various elements combine, not least a break and hold above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  As always for any longer term trend we need to wait for the "hammer" candle to be validated and should this fail then we can assume that the bearish momentum remains firmly in place and silver prices are set to continue their downward slide towards the $12.00 per ounce level.  With Goldman Sachs expected to release stellar earnings before today's bell this may well trigger a feeding frenzy across all markets so tight stops are the order of the day.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.430 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.150 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $12.180 (low of 30/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.980 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $12.030 (low of 01/05/09)                                   Resistance: $12.870 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 14 2009, 09:51 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jul 13 2009, 11:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As usual spot silver prices responded more aggressively to growing fears that the recent economic recovery may be no more than a false dawn as traders and investors take a reality check and switch out of riskier assets back into safe haven assets such as the Japanese Yen which saw a surge in buying activity towards the end of last week.  Spot silver also suffered from a return to some strength by the US Dollar and this week may come under further pressure as the quarterly earnings season gets into full swing where companies such as Microsoft and Apple will be reporting.  This is even more critical for silver prices given the use of silver in industrial processes.  From a technical perspective silver prices fell to an inter day low on Friday of $12.51 before rallying slightly, losing a total of 21 cents to settle at $12.660 per ounce.  The daily silver chart continues to exhibit bearish dominance with all three moving averages pointing sharply lower and with Friday's wide spread down bar providing little in the way a change to this picture, other than some profit taking during the latter part of the trading session.  The downwards pressure has increased this morning as silver prices have now penetrated the $12.55 price handle and we are now rapidly approaching the psychological $12.00 per ounce level which may well prove pivotal.  Should this price point be breached then we may see a re-test of the $11.45 per ounce region in due course.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.510 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $13.150 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $12.410 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $12.980 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $12.390 (low of 29/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.910 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 13 2009, 11:04 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices were boosted both by a small rebound in the price of gold and minor bargain hunting once silver began trading below the significant $13.00 per ounce.  Overall spot silver ended the day up 2 cents to close at $12.850 per ounce.   Technically the daily silver chart still has a strongly bearish tone with all three moving averages now weighing heavily on the price of silver and indeed this downwards pressure has increased this morning with silver trading lower at $12.66.  The short term target for this current downwards trend is the psychological level immediately above $12.00 per ounce and should the current congestion between this morning's price and this level be breached then we may even see a deeper move to re-test the support level at $11.80 per ounce with a further drop possible from here.   Given the extent of the consolidation that silver prices are now driving through very quickly it will take a considerable degree of momentum and stopping volume to reverse the current downwards trend in order to break back higher to reclaim the lost ground.    Any short term up move should now be considered as a selling opportunity to open further short positions as the fall in silver prices continues.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.750 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.380 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $12.675 (low of 24/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.150 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $12.550 (low of 14/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.980 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The continuing sell off in spot silver comes as no great surprise given the lack of any action in the equities market and a stalling of the recent commodity bull run.  In addition once spot silver prices broke through the $13.00 per ounce price point sell stops were triggered and the decline accelerated on the silver chart.  Spot silver prices ended the day 24 cents lower finishing at $12.830 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's down bar merely reinforced the bearish picture that we first outlined in our market commentary of two weeks ago, as a result of the shooting star candle of Monday 29th June.  The effect of this candle is still well in train and with yesterday's candle closing below the $13.00 per ounce level, coupled with all three moving averages now pointing firmly lower we may sell see a deeper move to re-test the $12.00 per ounce support area in due course.  With silver prices now deeply entrenched in an area of broad sideways consolidation it will take a considerable degree of effort and momentum to break back and through this current congestion.  The key to the depth of the move will be signalled should we see a break below $12.50 per ounce which again will suggest a move a more significance.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.730 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.447 (high of 06/07/09)

Support:    $12.675 (low of 24/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.380 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $12.550 (low of 14/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.150 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:56 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:55 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As with spot gold prices spot silver too finished lower in reaction to a slightly firmer US Dollar whose fortunes found some favour given that its fate is not on the agenda at this week's G8 summit.  Overall silver prices lost 22 cents, overtaking gold in percentage terms, and struggling to stay above the $13.00 per ounce price point.  From a technical perspective Monday's hammer candle failed to produce any move higher whatsoever and therefore and this signal can therefore be ignored as a result of Tuesday's price action with the daily candle on the silver chart ending as a down bar in a firmly bearish pattern.   With both the 9 and 14 day moving averages pointing sharply lower and with the 40 day also now turning, the support levels at $13.00 and $12.60 will now prove critical is silver prices are to avoid a much deeper move lower.  Should these levels also fail then we could see spot silver move to re-test the $12.00 per ounce region last seen in mid May.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.040 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.592 (high of 05/05/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.447 (high of 06/07/09)

Support:    $12.780 (low of 27/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.380 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:55 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The Indian Government's decision to double import duty on both gold and silver, plus a weaker US Dollar and the loss of momentum in equity markets are all contributing to the fall in spot silver prices, which at one point during yesterday's trading session touched a low of $12.987 per ounce, a level not seen since 5th May.  Overall spot silver prices ended the trading session 9 cents down ending the day at $13.300 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the bearish picture on the silver chart is more pronounced than that for gold, but this is often the case where silver tends to outperform gold on a percentage basis both when moving up and also when falling.  Yesterday's candle was interesting in that technically it created a hammer suggesting that silver prices may have found some support at this price level after their recent decline.  With a deep lower shadow and small upper body such a signal usually suggests the first sign that silver bulls are entering the market and buying what they consider to be "cheaper prices".  Naturally we need to wait for this signal to be confirmed and this will only be validated should we see a break and hold above all three moving averages coupled with a breach of the strong resistance now in place in the $14 per ounce level.  Should silver prices be able to reclaim this technical area of the chart then this may provide the platform for a sustained rally, but much will depend on investor appetite for risk in the broader market and how this translates into equities and US Dollar strength or weakness.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $12.987 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.800 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.592 (high of 05/05/09)

Support:    $12.780 (low of 27/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.447 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jul 6 2009, 10:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As with spot gold, silver prices too had a quiet day on Friday, only rising a mere 2 cents and the silver chart is now looking extremely vulnerable to further selling.  The decline in spot silver prices has been due to a combination of factors, including long liquidations and the stalling of equity markets.  However, one bright spot is that demand for silver coins has remained quite strong especially if inflation and worries about the status of the US Dollar.   However, technically the silver chart is extremely bearish and with the return of traders this morning, following the holiday weekend, this pattern has continued with silver prices falling almost 50 cents so far.  With all three moving averages now pointing sharply lower we need to consider the support levels which, if breached, could be the prelude to a much deeper move.  The first of these is rapidly approaching in the $13.00 per ounce level and if this fails to hold then we may see a considerably deeper move to re-test support in the $12.25 per ounce price point.  Much will depend on the fundamental picture and, in particular, market participants' view of risk or otherwise, and at present the US is benefiting from some safe haven buying as risk appetite wanes with a consequent effect on commodities and equities.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.360 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $14.140 (high of 30/06/09)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.800 (high of 02/07/09

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.480 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 6 2009, 10:56 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver's reaction to the Non Farm Payroll data was somewhat more dramatic than that of spot gold and certainly paints a more bearish picture from a technical perspective, which is interesting, as there seems to be some divergence between the two metals which has been revealed in the last couple of weeks.  If we consider the silver chart first; yesterday's wide spread down bar added to the bearish sentiment following Monday's "shooting star" doji candle which signalled the start of this week's fall in spot silver prices.  With both the 9 and 14 day moving averages now weighing heavily above and with the 40 day having crossed and started to turn, this is most definitely a bearish picture and somewhat at odds with that of gold.  Of particular significance is the 9 day moving average which now seems to be providing a serious barrier to any attempt to rise, and indeed we saw this again in yesterday's candle.  The gold chart, on the other hand, whilst bearish in flavour, certainly differs in that the general price move is one of sideways direction but certainly not indicative of a likely reversal lower.   A reason for the apparent breakdown in the traditional, positive correlation between gold and silver is most likely due to the fall in equity markets combined with silver's dual role as both an industrial and precious metal, of which the former seems to be weighing more heavily at present.  As a consequence spot silver touched the 6th May low of $13.280 per ounce and eventually closed at $13.40 per ounce.  With the US market closed for the 4th of July celebrations leading to very thin volumes we may see some random sideways price action on the silver chart today.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.280 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.140 (high of 30/06/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.800 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:08 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices too ended the day largely higher on the back of a weaker US Dollar and comments from China about the need to discuss the issue of a new global currency at next week's G8 summit in Italy.  However, the rise in silver was more muted, most likely as a result of a sharp fall in the price of crude oil, as the markets start to question whether the gains seen in the first half of 2009 will continue in Q2. Overall spot silver gained 12 cents to close at $13.787 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the silver chart has a decidedly more bearish tone than that for spot gold, and despite a minor recovery yesterday the high of the day failed to penetrate the 9 day moving average which acted as a barrier to any move higher, not an encouraging signal for silver prices, and with the 40 day crossing above, all three moving averages are now adding pressure to the downside.  It will take a move of some significance to create the momentum required if there is to be any reversal from this slow, downward slide, which is at slight odds with spot gold, which is currently managing to maintain an element of bullish sentiment.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.570 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.140 (high of 30/06/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.868 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:21 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As with spot gold prices silver prices too suffered as a consequence of Dollar strength, triggered by a dramatic fall in the price of crude oil, combining with both month end and quarter end liquidations and position squaring - a heady brew indeed.   As a result spot silver lost 25 cents overall and at one point reached an inter day low of $13.458 per ounce, a price point not seen since 6th May, although silver prices did eventually recoup some of these losses and closed the day at $13.660 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle clearly illustrated the volatility nature of silver trading on the day, ending the session with a wide spread down bar but with deep shadows to both top and bottom.  The general downwards trend came as little surprise following the bearish "shooting star signal" that we highlighted in Friday market commentary.  In addition the high of yesterday found the 14 day moving average to be a barrier to any move higher, as for Friday, and with both the 9 and 14 day moving averages pointing firmly lower and with the 40 day now beginning to turn the tone is decidedly bearish at present.  To compound this picture yesterday's close finished below the support level at $13.80/$14.00 which now presents a resistance level which will need to be broken before any reversal higher.  Given the downwards pressure of the moving averages and the general flavour of the daily silver chart we could now see a re-test at the $13.25 price point.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.458 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.323 (high of 26/06/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.140 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 1 2009, 09:36 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jun 30 2009, 09:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Like gold, spot silver prices moved along with the US Dollar but slipped more than gold as a result of technical factors as sell stops where triggered once spot silver prices touched the $14.00 per ounce price point and despite bouncing back from its intraday low of $13.830 per ounce silver prices still posted a loss of 17 cents to finish at $13.890 per ounce.   Like gold silver benefited earlier in the year from unprecedented investor demand following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.  Indeed mints around the world almost doubled their silver coin production in the first quarter in response to a surge of investor interest in the metal.  This followed an extraordinary buying spree for coins and bars by silver investors last year that was also accompanied by a record surge of inflows into silver backed exchange traded funds.   The 2009 Silver Survey produced by GFMS in conjunction with the Silver Institute, the Industry association, confirmed that sales of silver coins and medals jumped 63% to a record 2,019 tonnes in 2008 and demand continuing to rise in 2009 with the US Mint seeing a near 70% increase in coin sales in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.  Despite this bullish fundamental picture from a technical perspective the daily silver chart has a distinctly bearish flavour and there are several key technical elements which need to be considered carefully at this juncture.  Firstly, yesterday's candle failed to hold above the 9 day moving average, not a good signal, and in addition with the 14 day moving average having crossed the 40 this is adding to the bearish pressure.  The key to any deeper move lower will largely depend on whether the support now in place at the $13.75 price level can provide a solid base and prevent any move lower.  However, should this fail to hold we could see silver prices move back to re-test the strong support in the $13.50 per ounce region and below.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.830 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.790 (low of 25/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.323 (high of 26/06/09)

Support:    $13.600 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.147 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 30 2009, 09:25 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 11:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices initially moved higher along with gold with the dip below the $14.00 per ounce seen by silver traders as buying opportunities.  However, the rebound was short lived as silver traders squared their positions ahead of the weekend and in anticipation of this week's 4th July holiday and silver consequently ended the day lower at $14.070 per ounce.   As mentioned in Friday's commentary silver prices appear to be tracking copper, the bellwether for the global economy and whose price is currently reflecting the mood swings of the market between optimism and pessimism and perhaps over-reacting to any news.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle ended the session with a bearish feel closing on a doji with both the open and close of the trading session finding support from the 9 day moving average.  However, with the 40 day crossing the 14 day moving average the daily silver chart paints a decidedly bearish picture and the key to any deeper move will be whether the strong resistance now in place at the $13.80 per ounce and above region holds firm.  At present this seems to be the case, having already provided support last week, but only time will tell.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $14.040 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $14.550 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $13.790 (low of 25/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.600 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.323 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 29 2009, 11:08 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices were pulled a little higher yesterday by a rise in the price of spot gold as well as a wobble from the US Dollar and they ended the day 22 cents higher to settle at $14.082 per ounce.  As outlined in yesterday's market commentary for silver we are beginning to see some subtle shifts in the correlation between markets and instruments and indeed in the last few days the daily price move between gold and silver has been less pronounced than of late, suggesting that whilst this correlation is still in place it is less strong than it has been in the past.  In addition the relationship with the US Dollar also appears to have loosened, and silver prices may now be tracking the price of copper, which is seen by the market as the bellwether for both the economy in general and, more importantly, industrial commodities as we move out of recession.  With silver perhaps now perceived more as an industrial metal than a precious one, this relationship may prove to be more influential in the next few months rather than the one with gold.  This is not to say that the relationship with gold has broken, it is simply that the complex patchwork of markets, assets and financial instruments is creating a more diverse inter-dependency than simply one between "precious metals".

From a technical perspective yesterday's price move suggested a return of mildly bullish tone to the silver chart, although with no strong reversal signal the tone is perhaps more muted than in the gold chart.  The high of the day finished fractionally below the 9 day moving average but with the 14 day now crossing the 40 day this is adding to the bullish mood, which was further enhanced by the close finishing above the resistance level in the $13.90 per ounce region.   Any price move higher today may be cautious and my suggestion for trading (given that it is the weekend) is to look for small long trades using the 5 min chart with tight stop losses and aiming for small profit targets.

The short term trend is mildly bullish, medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.790 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.600 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.220 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.100 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:59 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Although spot gold prices were  able to shake off any influence from a stronger US Dollar spot silver was not so lucky as prices ended the day 2 cents lower on the silver chart on a day which was characterized by hesitation and uncertainty.  The mood of the silver chart mirrored that of the equity markets which are growing ever more sceptical of an early return to economic growth and indeed we are seeing silver behave more as an industrial metal rather than as a precious metal commodity.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle was symptomatic, ending the day as a doji which was in stark contrast to gold prices which finished significantly higher on the day.   The candle provides little in the way of any clear trading signal and indeed would suggest a bearish tone in the short term, particularly as the high of the day failed to breach the 9 day moving average which acted as a barrier to any move higher.  In addition the 14 day moving average is about to cross the 40 day moving average and further bearish sentiment is suggested by the failed attempt to clear the $14 per ounce price level which created significant resistance back in early May.   All of this is slightly at odds with the price of gold and we may have to consider that the close, positive correlation between gold and silver may have temporarily fallen out of synch and we will also keep a close eye on the gold/silver ratio which currently stands just below 67.   After the anti climax of the FOMC meeting most markets will be consolidating within their various ranges and we can expect the same for silver.

The short term and medium term trend is sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $13.778 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.600 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.220 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.110 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:26 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jun 24 2009, 09:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices initially fell to an inter day low of $13.60, a price last seen on 6th May, but they later recovered as sustained Dollar weakness entered the market and spot silver followed the gold price upwards eventually gaining 13 cents to finish at $13.882 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the daily silver chart is a little less clear than for gold which produced a well defined hammer signal (a possible strong reversal in spot gold prices), which was not replicated quite so well for silver.  During the day spot silver prices found some support at the $13.70 price point and above, suggesting that we could see a short term reversal, which is reinforced by the technical picture on the gold chart.  However, the technical picture is currently heavily influenced by the wider economic landscape and with the FOMC statement due out later today, which is widely expected to be Dollar negative, we should see a rebound in the price of silver later in the trading session.  Part of the reason that the daily candle on the silver is not as well defined as that of for gold is partly explained by silver dual role, both as a precious metal and also as an industrial commodity.  The question, of course, for traders will be the extent to which Dollar weakness and equity strength interplay and how the relationship between gold and silver reacts as a result.   Under normal circumstances should gold prices move higher, as expected, on the FOMC statement, then we should see silver prices follow suit.  For any sustained move higher, in the medium term, we need to see a break above all three moving averages and a hold above the $14.50 per ounce price point once again.  If the US Dollar falls, as expected, we may even see this later this evening.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.600 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.220 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.072 (high of 18/05/09)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/03/09)                                   Resistance: $13.940 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 24 2009, 09:21 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:23 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With all commodities falling hard as profit taking hit the markets silver prices too tumbled along with gold, copper and the equities and lost a total of 42 cents and breaching the $14.00 per ounce price point at the same time.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread down bar injected a further degree of momentum into the bearish tone for spot silver following last week's consolidation, and this has been further reinforced by the crossing of the 9 and 40 day moving averages (a bear cross).  In addition yesterday's price move on the silver chart was significant for the fact that the interim support at just below the $14.00 per ounce level was also breached coupled with the opening price of the day having been gapped down, all of which adds to this bearish picture.  In the short term this move could be significant and considerably deeper and we may even see a re-test of the $12.75 to $13.00 price level in due course.  In my opinion the longer term picture still remains bullish if only because the market is not fully convinced that the US Dollar is the safe haven that it once was, or indeed is purported to be at present.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.680 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.220 (yesterday’s high)

Support:    $13.250 (low of 06/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.072 (high of 18/05/09)

Published on  Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:23 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jun 22 2009, 09:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With equity markets at pivotal levels as investor sentiment appears to be turning bearish, spot silver prices have reacted in kind by falling slightly as a result of its dual persona as a precious metal and use in industrial processes.  Like many other markets silver prices consolidated last week awaiting the inevitably catalyst that will spark a significant move and a possible longer term change in investor sentiment, and indeed we may see this later during the week following the FMOC statement which may give a clue to the future direction of the markets.  From a technical perspective both gold and silver are in a similar position with Friday's close finishing marginally below the 40 day moving average suggesting a bearish tone at present with both the 9 and the 14 day moving averages pointing lower.  Indeed this view has been confirmed to some extent in early European trading this morning as the open was gapped down from Friday's close.  However, several points need to be borne in mind before jumping to any longer term conclusion.  First, and from a technical point of view, there is a strong degree of support in place in the $13.75-$13.95 price region and should this hold then we could see a short term reversal back higher once again, but this would need a break and hold above $14.50 coupled with support from the moving averages for it to have any meaning.   From a fundamental perspective the future direction for many commodities will be largely dictated by investor appetite for risk, and with equity markets now increasingly looking fragile and with a sense of fear and uncertainty increasingly, coupled with reduced risk appetite, this may well be a positive signal for both gold and silver bulls in the medium term.  The general view is that equity markets have risen on optimism not fact and we could see an abrupt correction in the next few days.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $14.120 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.930 (low of 17/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.550 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $13.830 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 22 2009, 09:18 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jun 19 2009, 09:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A feature across all the markets at present, whether commodities, stocks or currencies, seems to be the recurring theme that all are delicately poised and preparing for a major move as they consolidate sideways, and this is particularly true of both silver and gold.   With little fundamental news being released today, and coupled with "triple witching" in the options market, which is a rare occurrence, and with the weekend ahead today we are unlikely to see any evidence of a catalyst to spark some life into the markets.  As a result I thought it would be beneficial to look again at the gold silver ratio and what conclusions we may be able to draw, if any.  In simple terms the ratio is the price of gold divided by the price of silver and, of course, the question always remains as to what the optimum ratio should be.  Over the years this has varied between a low of 10 to 1 and a high of 98 to 1, last achieved in 1991.  Today's rate is fractionally below 66, having fallen significantly in the last few months, having fallen back from the highs of 80 seen earlier in the year which effectively reflected the surge in gold prices as opposed to silver which were more moderate.   The general consensus of opinion is that the median point for the ratio should be somewhere between 50 and 55, although of course this figure is purely arbitrary and based on the annual charts for the ratio which look back over the past 20 years.  Today's ratio of 66 is tending to move the prices for these two commodities closer into line suggesting that we may see a closer correlation in terms of percentage price moves than we have seen so far this year, as in most cases silver will tend to outperform gold both in up and down moves.

Looking at the current technical picture spot silver prices are delicately balanced on the 40 day moving average, exactly the same as for spot gold and any move in a correlated market such as equities or currency could prove to be the tipping point with only the $14 per ounce price region providing any barrier to a move lower.   With all options expiring later today and the weekend ahead today is not a day for trading silver.  In yesterday's price action silver lost 13 cents to settle at $14.230 per ounce.

The short and medium is sideways, long term bullish.

Support:    $14.125 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.930 (low of 17/06/09)                                   Resistance: $14.550 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $13.830 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 19 2009, 09:49 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jun 18 2009, 09:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices followed spot gold prices on the back of a weaker US Dollar and managed to close the day 23 cents higher at $14.377 per ounce.  Yesterday's candle on the silver chart provided a note of optimism for silver traders for two reasons: first the bar closed the day with a deep lower shadow which found support at the $14 per ounce price level and subsequently rebounded during the latter part of the silver trading session and, secondly the 40 day moving average, as with gold, seems to be providing a degree of support as prices consolidate in this region.   Naturally we need to remain cautious as silver prices are delicately balanced at present but both these signals could suggest that the price of silver may find a platform at this level from which to rebuild a bullish trend. The key to any longer term move higher will be twofold: firstly a break and hold above the resistance now in place at $15.40 and secondly, a move fully supported by all three moving averages.

The short and medium term are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $13.930 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.830 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.550 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $13.710 (low of 14/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 18 2009, 09:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices closed marginally higher gaining 2 cents on the day and crossing back above the 40 day moving average.  Although the early trading session was dominated by a strong rally on the back of a softer US Dollar, as the session progressed traders took their profits off the table in reaction to the less than inflationary US PPI data perhaps persuading investors to move out of precious metals back into the equity market.  Spot silver prices ended the day at $14.15 per ounce and virtually at the opening price.  From a technical perspective the picture for silver is much the same as for gold as we approach a delicate position on the silver chart over the next few days, with the combined influences of the US Dollar, crude oil prices and risk appetite in equities dictating the short term direction.  Technically yesterday's candle provided clear evidence of this indecision closing the day balanced precariously on the 40 day moving average, much the same as in the gold chart.   Should this moving average fail to provide the required support then we may see a much deeper move possibly back to re-test the $13.55 region in due course should the support at $14.00 per ounce also fail to hold.  With the 9 and 14 day moving averages having crossed this suggests a bearish tone in the short term and if silver prices are to rally then we will need to see a break back above both these two averages coupled with a hold above the strong resistance now in place at $15.50.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $14.070 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.830 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.550 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $13.710 (low of 14/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.420 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:28 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's rebound in the US dollar following positive statements from both Japan and Russia and poor equity market performance all contributed to a sharp decline in spot price silver which fell more heavily relative to spot gold.  With silver prices falling through minor resistance $14.55 the fall was accentuated as a result of the market triggering stops sitting below this support line.  Overall silver prices ended the day 53 cents lower at $14.22.  From a technical perspective, whilst yesterday's wide spread down bar was a repeat of that of Friday, the significant aspect of this candle was the closing price and the support that was duly provided by the 40 day moving average.  Moving averages can often provide strong support to a move lower, or indeed a continuing trend higher as we saw in the past few weeks, so yesterday's support should not be underestimated.  Indeed in this morning's trading session we have seen the price of silver lift once again recovering some of yesterday's losses with the 40 day moving average providing a cushion.  However, should this fail to hold we may see a re-test of the $14 per ounce level in due course and if this is breached then a deeper move to $13.50 and below beckons.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.
Support:    $14.030 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.002 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.830 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $13.710 (low of 14/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.740 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:40 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices fell sharply on Friday as a result of profit taking and a growing realisation by investors that any economic recovery is likely to be long and drawn out.  In addition strong gains in the US dollar prompted by bearish comments from the ECB's Jean Claude Trichet and positive support for the greenback from Japan's Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano also contributed to the pullback in silver prices.  Overall spot silver lost 60 cents, dipping below the $15 per ounce price point, to close at $14.790 per ounce, ending the day on a wide spread down bar.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle finally confirmed the 2 bearish engulfing signals that we saw in the previous week's trading, and coupled with the crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages this has now confirmed the bearish picture in the short term.  Indeed this has been reinforced in early trading this morning with a gapped down opening (falling window) which suggests that the bearish tone may continue for some time.  The key to the depth of this move will depend on two factors, firstly whether silver prices break below the 40 day moving average and secondly whether they find a modicum of support in the $14 per ounce price region.  If the first occurs, and the second fails to provide support, then we could see a deeper move possibly as far as the $13 per ounce region once again last seen back in early May.

The short term bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support:    $14.767 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $15.440 (Friday’s high)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.276 (14 day moving average)

Support:    $14.430 (low of 27/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.118 (9 day moving average)

Published on  Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A combination of a weaker US dollar and increasing optimism about industrial demand once again provided support for spot silver prices which ended the day 17 cents higher at $15.390 per ounce and in percentage terms once again outperformed spot gold.  The current rally in silver prices mirrors similar bullish sentiment in other commodities such as oil where despite the somewhat bleak fundamental picture, investors appear determined to maintain the upward trend across the commodities market.  From a technical perspective the silver chart is very similar to that of gold in that prices are consolidating in a very narrow range.  The only minor difference between the two is that the price of silver has shown a marginally more bullish trend on the week with candles that are slightly more descriptive (gold has had a series of doji candles which are indicative of indecision and sideways movement).    Yesterday's candle was typical with a small increase on the day closing marginally below the 9 day moving average but with a deep lower wick which seems to have found some support on the 14 day moving average and with each day's candle having a low which is higher than the previous day, again suggesting a bullish flavour.  However, today is not a day for trading for several reasons.  First it is the end of the week and many traders will be squaring positions ahead of the weekend.  Second we have the G8 finance ministers' meeting in Italy where unprompted off the cuff remarks will be seized on by the markets, and all the markets are now waiting for this meeting to unfold so today is likely to be characterized by a further period of consolidation and sideways movement.

The short term is sideways while the medium and long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.930 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.950 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $14.760 (low of 09/06/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.532 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:41 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite pushing higher, along with spot gold, in early trading, and even managing to resist pressure from a stronger US dollar, spot price silver still finished flat on the day, opening and closing at the same price.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the trading session as a long legged doji identical to that of spot gold, with the open and close finishing marginally above the 14 day moving average, which seems to be providing a modicum of support at this level.   It is interesting to note that we have yet to see any significant follow through from the two bearish engulfing signals of last week, and this may be indicative of a market that is resisting the downward pressure, and could also suggest that silver prices are waiting for a sustained move in the US dollar.  As a result of yesterday's candle, which clearly indicates indecision in the market, and a general lack of direction, we may well see a period of consolidation at this price level over the next few days.  Fundamentally the market is also waiting for the unemployment claims and retail sales in the US which may provide us with a clue as to the short term direction for spot silver prices.  My trading suggestion is therefore to wait for the release of this data and technically for a break above all three moving averages once again or alternatively whether the $14.65 support will provide a firm barrier to any short term reversal.

The short term is sideways while the medium and long terms are bullish.

Support:    $15.017 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.950 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $14.760 (low of 09/06/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.490 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:12 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jun 10 2009, 09:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices benefited from yesterday's re-emergence of dollar weakness, especially against the Euro so it was no surprise to see silver prices recovering, along with other metals, as markets begin to take a more optimistic view on the global economy.  Spot silver finished the trading session 24 cents higher at $15.220 per ounce.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle followed a similar pattern to that of Monday with both forming deep lower wicks, and whilst one was an up candle and the other was down, the sentiment of both was similar.  The defining characteristic of both candles was the deep lower shadow suggesting that the selling pressure during the trading session was absorbed by buying in the market, which would indicate that on both occasions silver prices found strong support at this level.  This would tend to suggest that despite the fact that we had two bearish signals last week, these seem to have been discounted by the market, with yesterday's candle closing back above the 14 day moving average, and with prices pushing higher once again in early trading this morning.  For any sustained move we need to see a break and hold above the $16 per ounce price level, and with the dollar index suggesting further dollar weakness on the daily chart, then this should only be a matter of time.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $14.760 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.950 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $14.540 (low of 25/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.342 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 10 2009, 09:08 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices, along with other precious metals, fell more sharply than gold as a result of a resurgent US dollar and falls in equity markets, and the US dollar was also given a boost following a downgrade to Ireland's credit rating to double AA, with a negative outlook, from double AA plus.  This is the second cut in three months and comes amid worries over the cost of bailing out the Irish banking sector.   Overall spot silver lost 24 cents closing the day at $15.00 per ounce and like gold, could continue to decline should the US dollar continue to strengthen, however from a technical perspective we may have slightly different picture.

Whilst yesterday's down candle certainly indicated negative sentiment towards silver prices, there are one or two important points to note, moving forward. First, the candle has a deep lower shadow, suggesting that the selling pressure during the day was absorbed by the bulls. Secondly, the close of the day finished marginally below the 14 day moving average which could therefore be considered to be providing support. Finally, the low of the day failed to penetrate the minor support level at $14.65 per ounce, reinforcing the view that this may only be a temporary reversal before the previous rally is re-established once again. It is also interesting to note that the daily candle in the gold chart adds further evidence to this effect with a deep 'hammer' formation, which gives a stronger signal than that on the silver chart. One other small point which is worth noting, is simply that the price action this morning seems to be finding support below once again. Given the above comments my suggestion for today is to wait until tomorrow when we may see further confirmation of the above analysis.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $14.710 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.950 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $14.540 (low of 25/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.460 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:30 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver prices declined in tandem with spot gold prices as the US dollar rebounded strongly and NFP figures came in well under market expectation at 345,000 jobs lost, against a market forecast of 520,000, a significant difference and one which created sudden and immediate volatility across all markets.  However, the fall in silver prices cannot simply be explained by investors moving back into riskier assets given its dual role as both an industrial and precious metal, and from a technical perspective  it is perhaps more helpful, given the volatility experienced on Friday, to take a look at the weekly chart for silver prices, which perhaps provides a broader view of the market and a different perspective on the current trend, with spot silver closing on Friday 63 cents lower on the day at $15.240 per ounce.

From a technical perspective last week's candle on the weekly chart certainly has a bearish tone, and whilst not a shooting star, it certainly has some similar characteristics, with a narrow body and deep upper wick, and following four weeks of gains ( as for gold) it was no great surprise to see a reversal, albeit magnified by Friday's NFP data. The worrying sign from the candle, and perhaps for a continuation of the longer bullish trend is the failure to breach the strong resistance in the $16.50 price region which is clearly defined on the weekly silver chart, and this may well prove to be a difficult area to breach if we are to see a move back to $18.50, and above, in due course. With all three moving averages pointing higher, there is no reason to suppose at present that this is anything other than a short term pull back. However, should we see a deeper move back to retest support at the $14.50 region coupled with a break below the 9 week moving average, then this could signal a deeper move, possibly as low as $13.75 or lower.

As I have already outlined in the gold commentary this morning, with the probability that the stream of fundamental news is likely to show an improving economic picture in the next few months, we are increasingly likely to see volatile days, as we saw on Friday, with investors flipping their risk appetite as fear oscillates between that of deflation which now ( apparently ) seems to be receding, to the fear of inflation, as the market overshoots with low interest rates and an economy awash with cash, so we are in for a bumpy ride in the next few months.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $15.150 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $16.003 (high of 02/06/09)

Support:    $15.040 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.518 (9 day moving average)

Published on  Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:57 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, Jun 5 2009, 08:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Just as spot gold prices bounced back strongly, spot silver too regained much of the previous day's losses as dollar weakness re-entered the market following the ECB decision to maintain interest rates and worries that the recent recovery in the equity market may not be sustainable.   In addition the continuing perception that silver is undervalued to gold and therefore a bargain at its present price all helped to push the price of silver back towards the $16 per ounce level once again.  From a technical perspective, the wide spread up bar of yesterday, has provided a clear signal that the bearish warning sign that we saw on Wednesday has been ignored, and was therefore a false signal which we can now discount from our analysis. Indeed as I suggested at the time, the 9 day moving average was key, as it provided the support to the low of the day, a characteristic often seen in a rising market with any temporary retracement or reversal bouncing off the 9 day or 14 day moving average, before continuing the move upwards - always look for this in a rally ( and the reverse in a fall) as it is a sign of continued strength and continued momentum in the trend. With all three moving averages pointing higher we should see a breach and hold above the $16 per ounce in due course, with our $16.50 initial price target still firmly on the horizon. Remember that with the weekend ahead, we may see some squaring of positions later as commodity traders close ahead of the two day break, and with NFP this afternoon we could also see some interesing volatility across all markets!

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $15.440 (low of 02/06/09)                                   Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $15.130 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.003 (high of 02/06/09)

Support:    $15.040 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.950 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 5 2009, 08:09 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Jun 4 2009, 08:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following spot gold, silver prices declined sharply as the US dollar managed to recoup some of its recent losses in a day when many commodities found themselves under pressure as the recent equity market bear rally looks to be coming to an end.  Indeed many financial experts expect the downturn to continue and any recovery will not be V shaped and the recent bounce will simply peter out.   As always the fall in spot silver was dramatic with silver prices falling 56 cents to close at $15.38 on the day and as a result producing a wide spread down bar, with wicks to top and bottom.

From a technical perspective, yesterdays bearish engulfing candle has provided an early warning signal, that the current bull rally for silver prices may be running out of steam, a view which is reinforced on the gold chart, however as always with any signal we need to wait for this to be confirmed, and not make trading decisions based on one candle!! Whilst this could indeed be the start of a short term reversal, the fact that the low of the day failed to penetrate the 9 day moving average is a positive sign, and could suggest that this will provide the support for a bounce higher once again in due course. This is often the case in a strong trend ( whether up or down ) where the low (or high) of the day bounces off the moving average, which then provides the necessary support for the trend to re-establish itself once again, and indeed we can see this at work on the daily silver chart over the last few weeks, where small reversals on the day, have been supported by the moving average ( 9 day or 14 day)  which has then provided the springboard for a continuation of the move. Whilst I am not suggesting that we can conclude this from one candle, I am suggesting that we need to wait and see, as this may be the case here. If the bearish signal is to be confirmed, then we need to wait for a sustained break and hold below both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, coupled with a hold below the most recent support region at $14.45. Only time will tell whether this is a false signal, or an early warning of a change in the trend, and we must therefore wait for today's trading session in silver to unfold. My suggestion, given the above, and also that we have the NFP data tomorrow, is to take a wait and see approach to trading silver for today, as the unemployment figures could have a strong influence on the equity markets tomorrow which in turn will affect commodity prices across the board.

Support:    $15.230 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $15.130 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.003 (high of 02/06/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (high of 29/05/09)

Published on  Thu, Jun 4 2009, 08:54 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, Jun 3 2009, 09:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

It was another day of solid gains for the price of silver yesterday, as silver prices rose along with gold, largely in response to a weaker US dollar which, despite expectations, was not lifted by Timothy Geithner’s comments following a speech in China, with spot silver breaching the $16.00/oz level for the first time since August 2008, and eventually closing the day slightly lower at $15.950/oz, a gain of 40 cents on the day. From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed as a wide spread up bar, which not only confirmed that the bullish tone remains firmly in place, but also that the possible weakness seen in the daily chart on Monday, can now be ignored as a failed signal, as we look towards a hold above the $16 per ounce level, and a move towards our initial target of $16.50 per ounce in due course. With all three moving averages pointing sharply higher, there is nothing on the daily silver chart at present to suggest that this momentum is likely to end soon, with the only caveat being the NFP data on Friday, which could provide a temporary pullback if the numbers are not as expected. In addition, given the strong performance for both gold and silver in the last few weeks it is inevitable that we will see the market take a breather and consolidate at some point in the near future.

Many analysts now believe that silver is undervalued against gold and that in due course we will see a 'slingshot' effect, with the price of silver rising faster than gold as the US dollar continues its decline driven lower by the quantitative easing measures being promoted from Washington. As oil expert Byron King put it so succintly at a recent conference - "In general, the precious metals are up because the big spending politicians in Washington have no respect for the US dollar. Break out the black crepe and armbands of mourning for the US dollar!"

The short and medium term trends are bullish while the long term trend is sideways.

Support:    $15.440 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $16.390 (low of 06/08/09)

Support:    $15.130 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.003 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 3 2009, 09:26 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, Jun 2 2009, 09:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver was supported by a weak US dollar and firmer copper prices (the bellwether for base metals) in early trading with prices achieving a fresh high for the year at $15.90 per ounce.   However, a failure to break and hold above $16 resulted in silver prices losing 20 cents and eventually ending the day at $15.530 per ounce.   However, from a technical perspective the outlook for silver prices remains positive despite the fact that yesterday's candle had a bearish tone with a deep upper wick and narrow body indicative of a "shooting star" candle, but one which was contained within the body of Friday's candle as the open of yesterday was gapped down, so the candle carries less weight as such.  Despite this, however, and given that the gold chart has a neat shooting star at the top of the rally, we may see a modest pullback in silver prices today and possibly tomorrow as a result, which should therefore be viewed as opportunities for opening new longer term position trades, with a view to spot silver moving above the $16 mark and on towards our initial target of $16.45.  Silver prices should also benefit from the bullish tone of copper prices which since last week has seen the LME three month contract break through the $5,000 metric tonne price mark with analysts now the targeting $5,500 price point.

The short term is sideways while medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $15.460 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $15.130 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.000 (psychological level)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.960 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 2 2009, 09:07 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The spot silver price continues to track the gold bull run as many traders and investors turn to commodities both as an inflation hedge and safe haven.   In addition the perception that spot silver is undervalued compared with gold has recently helped silver to outperform gold in percentage terms and silver prices gained an impressive 54 cents on Friday to settle at $15.740 reaching yet another record high for 2009.  From a technical perspective Friday's wide spread up bar continued the upwards momentum adding further to the bullish tone and with all three moving averages pointing sharply higher we should see the $16.75 price point reached relatively quickly before we run into heavy resistance on the daily silver chart.

The short, medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $15.130 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $14.620 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $16.000 (psychological level)

Support:    $14.540 (low of 25/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.760 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:29 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, May 29 2009, 09:23 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver prices continue to be pushed higher by a combination of fund buying and momentum trading as spot price silver ended the day by gaining 53 cents to settle at $15.190 per ounce.  Indeed demand for silver has continued to grow in 2009 to the extent that the US Mint is seeing an almost 70% increase in coin sales in the first quarter compared with the same period last year.  This surge in demand comes as investors become more risk averse  following the demise of Lehman Brothers last year.   Silver investors have also turned to specialist exchange traded funds which too have seen a dramatic increase of inflows.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar added considerable momentum to the bullish tone on the silver chart following the last four days of sideways consolidation, breaking through the $15 per ounce price point and holding above this psychological region.  This dramatic move up has continued in early trading this morning, which now places the strong resistance at $16.40 per ounce firmly in our sights, and is the next key area for silver prices.  Only time will tell whether this significant barrier is enough to halt the current upwards move or whether we will see this region penetrated in due course.  With all three moving averages now pointing firmly higher and with little in the way of resistance ahead until we meet the price target outlined above, there is no reason to suppose that we should not see this momentum continue for some days to come.  The only caveat for today is that with the weekend ahead, and following the strong surge of yesterday and this morning, we may see traders squaring positions and taking profits with a view to re-entering the market on Monday as the bull move continues.

The short, medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $14.620 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $16.210 (high of 08/08/09)

Support:    $14.430 (low of 27/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.440 (high of 11/08/08)

Support:    $14.280 (low of 26/05/09)                                   Resistance: $15.260 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 29 2009, 09:23 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, May 28 2009, 10:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Unlike the spot gold price spot price silver staged a strong rally yesterday during which the price of silver managed to reach an intraday high of $15.002 per ounce, last seen back in August 2008.  The move was largely driven by improved investment demand - indeed silver prices have recently been correlating positively with the price of copper which although was down on Wednesday at $4,595 a ton is expected to move towards the $4,400 to $4,800 range on the back of strong demand from China.  All markets are very thin today as China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed for a national holiday.   In addition there is still a perception in the silver market that silver prices are still undervalued compared with gold.  During yesterday's trading session although silver prices did pull back on profit taking the price of silver still settled 18 cents higher at $14.680 per ounce.  Despite the above from a technical perspective yesterday's candle has provided us with a possible early warning signal of a reversal in silver prices with a strong shooting star which is characterized by a bar with a small body and deep upper shadow, suggesting bearish pressure has entered the market.   This is reinforced by the hanging man of Tuesday and the spinning top of Monday (albeit created on a low volume day).  All of these signals combine to indicate a possible short term reversal in silver prices and we need to wait for today's price action for any clear additional signals to suggest whether there is any substance to this candle.  It is also interesting to note that gold and silver prices have diverged slightly in the last few days with silver moving higher, and gold moving lower, and indeed the gold chart also suggests some weakness in the short term.

The short and medium terms are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.430 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.002 (yesterday’s high)

Support:    $14.280 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (high of 22/05/09)

Support:    $14.060 (low of 22/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.780 (high of 25/05/09)

Published on  Thu, May 28 2009, 10:05 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, May 27 2009, 10:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver initially suffered from heavy selling as investors reacted to the growing problems with North Korea by moving back into the US dollar as risk aversion returned once again to the markets.  However, this was short lived as equity prices rose along with copper prices, which these days appear to correlate positively with spot silver prices.  The price of silver managed to restrict losses to 13 cents closing the session at $14.507 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the silver chart is almost identical to that of spot gold in that it has a spinning top from Monday (created on thin volumes and therefore suspect), followed by a doji with a deep lower wick which bounced off the 9 day moving average.  Under normal circumstances I would suggest that this could represent a short term reversal as some weakness has entered the market, but given the unusual circumstances outlined above and a continuation of the market's trading on sentiment rather than fact I hesitate to draw any firm analysis of the past couple of days and would therefore suggest we take a wait and see approach for any clear signals from today's trading.

The short and medium term are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.280 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.940 (high of 13/08/08)

Support:    $14.060 (low of 22/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.780 (high of 25/05/09)

Support:    $13.970 (low of 18/02/09)                                   Resistance: $14.700 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 27 2009, 10:47 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, May 26 2009, 09:44 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite thin trading volumes as a result of a national holiday in both the US and UK spot price silver still managed to gain 3 cents to settle at $14.680.  The price of spot silver was also supported by the North Korean nuclear test situation and although there have been reports that China is increasing its base metal imports this is not evidenced by this morning's reports that in fact such purchases by the SRB (Strategic Reserve Bureau) may have actually stalled.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed as an indecisive doji, and following on the back of last Thursday's indecision would suggest a temporary reversal in silver prices, which we are seeing in this morning's trading and which should provide excellent opportunities to buy into the market for longer term position trading to the upside.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, while medium term trend is bullish.

Support:    $14.540 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $15.110 (high of 14/08/08)

Support:    $14.060 (low of 22/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.940 (high of 13/08/08)

Support:    $13.970 (low of 18/02/09)                                   Resistance: $14.780 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 26 2009, 09:44 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, May 25 2009, 11:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver tracked the price of gold higher on Friday, reaching a fresh high for 2009 at $14.830 per ounce, its strongest level since August 2008.  Spot silver prices were undoubtedly boosted both by a weakening US dollar and a stronger rebound given the extent to which silver prices fell last year.  The disconnect in gold and silver prices is such that although gold prices are now around 7% below their March 2008 peak, spot silver is still around 30% below the March 2008 high.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle closed above the resistance outlined in Friday's market commentary at $14.45 suggesting that we are now in a position to see a longer term bullish rally in silver prices with very little in the way of resistance on the silver chart until we reach the dizzy heights of $16.40 per ounce which is now clearly in our sights.  As today is a national holiday both in the US and the UK my trading suggestion for today is to wait until the markets are open tomorrow and at the point start to look to build long term bullish positions to take advantage of the likely trend in silver prices moving forward.

The short term is sideways while the medium and long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.400 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $15.110 (high of 14/08/08)

Support:    $14.060 (low of 22/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.940 (high of 13/08/08)

Support:    $13.970 (low of 18/02/09)                                   Resistance: $14.830 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 25 2009, 11:03 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, May 22 2009, 09:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver started yesterday's trading session under a degree of pressure as equity markets headed lower on renewed concerns about the global economy.  However, spot silver prices later rallied and tracked spot gold prices higher as the US dollar weakened against all major currencies with the result that silver settled 28 cents higher at $14.50 per ounce.  From a technical perspective silver prices closed the day on a wide spread up bar with the low of the day bouncing off the 9 day moving average which, once again, has provided additional support to the bullish momentum, and with the price of silver now marginally above the $14.50 price target outlined yesterday, and having broken above the resistance level at this region last seen in mid February we are now in a position to see a sustained attack at the strong resistance level of $16.50 and above.  With thin trading volumes expected today and Monday due to a national holiday in many countries my trading suggestion is to close out current profitable long positions from the last few days, bank your profits, and then look to open new long term trend trades early next week buying on any short term reversals as we look for a long term move higher in the price of silver.

The short and medium term are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $14.060 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.630 (high of 23/02/09)

Support:    $13.730 (low of 19/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.600 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $13.615 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.550 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 22 2009, 09:42 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, May 21 2009, 11:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver moved higher yesterday on the back of a weaker dollar gaining 5 cents to settle at $14.250 per ounce although in percentage terms the gains were not comparable to those seen in spot gold prices.  In its twin roles as a precious and industrial metal silver prices will only be boosted significantly once the global economy begins to recover and demand picks up.  In the meantime spot silver prices will no doubt continue to track and correlate inversely with the currency markets and, in particular, with a weaker US dollar.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the silver chart was indecisive ending the day as a spinning top or doji but still remaining above all three moving averages and with the lower shadow bouncing off the 9 day moving average, which is always an encouraging signal.  We are now approaching the $14.50 per ounce price point where we may see some sideways consolidation before the expected break out occurs in due course, and if so we will then be in a position to see a sustained move higher with very little in the way of resistance ahead.

The short and the medium term trends are sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $14.070 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.630 (high of 23/02/09)

Support:    $13.730 (low of 19/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.600 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $13.615 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 21 2009, 11:13 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, May 20 2009, 08:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot price silver tracked spot gold prices ending the day 39 cents higher to settle at $14.180 per ounce on a wide spread up bar which opened the day below the 9 day moving average, but closed well above it giving us a bullish signal on the silver chart on the day.  The low of the day bounced neatly off the 14 day moving average, as did the previous day's candle, once again adding weight to the bullish sentiment and with all three moving averages now pointing higher, provided we see a break above $14.50 price point, then we should see a move higher in due course once we have cleared this resistance area.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions on an intra day basis timing your entry points using the 15 and 30 minute charts, and adding to these positions should we break above the resistance level outlined above.   

The short and the medium term trends are sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

         

Support:    $13.730 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.600 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $13.615 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.290 (yesterday’s high)
 

Published on  Wed, May 20 2009, 08:11 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, May 19 2009, 08:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices followed spot gold losing 12 cents to close at $13.810 per ounce but it is interesting to note that on a percentage basis the price of silver declined less than spot gold which is generally not the case when commodities fall, so yesterday was an anomalous day for various reasons.  Firstly there was no news of any consequence on the economic calendar causing many markets to behave in an irrational way and indeed equities posted triple digit gains whilst many currency pairs promptly reversed their bearish trend.  Secondly, with equity markets rising one would have expected this to have a knock on effect on silver given its status as an industrial metal and one could argue that this was partly the reason that the fall in the price of silver was less than that of gold.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed marginally below the 9 day moving average as an indecisive doji continuing the sideways price action which we have seen for the past few days around the $14.00 per ounce price point.  For any sustained move higher we need to see the $14.50 price mark breached with a degree of momentum, and if so we should see silver prices continue their bullish momentum supported by all three moving averages in due course.

The short and the medium term trends are sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.615 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $13.603 (14 day moving average)                             Resistance: $14.090 (high of 14/05/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $13.952 (9 day moving average)

Published on  Tue, May 19 2009, 08:08 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, May 18 2009, 08:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver's schziophrenic personality came to the fore on Friday failing to follow spot gold higher, finishing 7 cents lower but still managing to hold above the $14.00 per ounce price point.  The slide in the price of spot silver can be attributed to the general fall in equities and copper as investors once again worry about the global economy.  Friday was a case of  spot silver prices suffering from their role as an industrial metal.  From a technical perspective Wednesday's candle was the most significant of the week, closing the day with a two bar reversal and therefore suggesting possible weakness in silver prices in the following days.  The wide spread down bar came as no great surprise following the surge in prices of the last 2 weeks and was almost certainly due to a combination of the market taking a breather and investors taking profits.  Thursday's candle failed to confirm this bearish sign and the low of the day bounced off the 9 day moving average to reinforce this view, with Friday's candle once again replicating this price action but finishing the day as an indecisive doji.  Whilst it may be too early to suggest that this midweek bearish signal has been ignored we do need to trade with some caution until the price of silver moves above the $14.35 price point once again at which point we can assume that the bullish tone has once again returned to the market.  With the 9 day moving average providing good support and the 14 day crossed the 40 there is no reason to suppose that this is not the case, and the only area of concern will be as we approach the $14.50 per ounce price mark where we have a resistance area which may temporarily hamper any move higher.  My suggestion for today is as for gold and to look for small long intra-day trading positions aiming for quick profits and keeping your stop loss tight.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $13.840 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $14.380 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $13.710 (low of 14/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.350 (high of 12/05/09)

Support:    $13.670 (low of 11/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.180 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 18 2009, 08:11 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, May 15 2009, 08:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The following silver commentaries are combined owing to problems with the internet and cover both Wednesday's
and Thursday's silver trading.

After reaching a new recent high at $14.380/oz last seen on Feb 24th silver fell back on Wednesday with pressure
coming from a stronger US dollar and weaker industrial metals, especially copper.   The downward move was
partially attributed to an ongoing conference of mining executives in Spain who cautioned against undue optimism that demand for industrial metals and others would recover quickly as world economies bottomed out. Silver prices are particularly sensitive to any such comments given its status as both a safe haven and its use in many industrial processes, and consequently it fell more in percentage terms, than spot gold prices yesterday as is often the case.  Overall spot price silver dropped 35 cents to finish at $13.930/oz.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.
      

Support:    $13.870 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.610 (high of 20/02/09)

Support:    $13.670 (low of 11/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support:    $13.590 (low of 23/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.380 (yesterday’s high)

Thursday's Commentary:

During a quiet silver trading session silver prices did manage some small gains moving up 9 cents to finish at $14.030 per ounce, after recovering from a move lower during the trading session, finishing the day with a deep
lower shadow suggesting that we could see a bullish move higher in today's trading session.  Silver prices were also
given a small boost by a weaker US Dollar and some inflationary worries on the back of worse than expected
producer prices data.   From a technical perspective all three moving averages are now pointing higher and with the 9 and 14 day having crossed, coupled with the low of yesterday bouncing off the 9 day moving average, this all
now indicates a bullish picture for today, and my silver trading suggestion is to look for small long positions on an
inter-day basis aiming for small profit targets and with a stop loss below $13.65.  My initial target is as of the last few days as we look to clear $14.50 per ounce and should this be achieved then we could see a sustained move
higher in due course.
 
The short term trend is bullish, the medium trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.
           

Support:    $13.710 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support:    $13.670 (low of 11/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.145 (high of 07/05/09)

Support:    $13.590 (low of 23/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.090 (yesterday’s high)

 

Published on  Fri, May 15 2009, 08:19 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, May 13 2009, 08:15 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's wide spread up bar on the daily silver chart added further momentum to the upwards trend breaking through the psychological $14.00 per ounce level as outlined in yesterday's silver trading commentary and silver prices finished the day at $14.28 per ounce - a 38 cents gain on the day.  With all three moving averages pointing higher we are now in sight of attacking the high of early February at $14.55 per ounce and should we breach this level either today or later in the week then we should be in a position to look towards significantly higher prices for silver in the forthcoming weeks, possibly re-testing the resistance at $16 to $16.50 price band in due course.  The current momentum is a combination of technical buying coupled with stronger sentiment in equity markets and a weaker US dollar as risk appetite returns.  My trading suggestion for today is again to look for long positions on an intra-day basis looking to build on these should we break above $14.55 or higher.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $13.830 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.610 (high of 20/02/09)

Support:    $13.670 (low of 11/05/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support:    $13.590 (low of 23/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.350 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 13 2009, 08:15 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, May 12 2009, 09:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

After an impressive 6 days rally, yesterday’s fall in spot price silver was not unexpected and was largely the result of some strength returning to the US dollar.   However, in late trading spot silver prices benefited from lower equities, thereby managing to recoup some of their initial losses and the price of silver eventually settled at $13.890 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed the day with a long lower shadow suggesting that we could see silver prices rise in trading today with the bulls overcoming the bears in late trading to push prices back up once again.  With both the 9 and 14 day averages pointing and and the 40 day average beginning to turn upwards these are now adding their full support to any move higher and indeed in early trading this morning the price of silver has broken through the psychological $14.00 per ounce level and we now have the resistance at $14.50 clearly in our sights.   A break above this price level could see the way clear for silver prices to mount an attack on the $16.50 resistance in the medium to long term.  My trading suggestion for today is to attempt small longs on an intra-day basis using the 15 and 30 mins charts to identify buying opportunities.  I would suggest any stop losses are placed at or around the $13.25 region.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $13.670 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.610 (high of 20/02/09)

Support:    $13.590 (low of 23/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.050 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 12 2009, 09:13 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Mon, May 11 2009, 09:39 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Silver continued to move higher flirting once again with the $14.00 per ounce price point. Spot price silver outperformed spot gold as non farm payroll data came in better than expected, fuelling speculation that the global demand for silver as an industrial metal would begin sooner than expected. The rally in spot silver which started at around $12.50 per ounce has seen silver prices rally for 6 days in a row and now looks set to re-test the $14.00 per ounce mark once again. An analysis of the weekly chart also suggests a similar picture with a wide spread up bar closing well above all three moving averages and providing a bullish engulfing signal. Should we see a break above $14.50 (a previous resistance level) then there is no reason to suppose that in due course we will see a testing of the strong resistance currently in place at $16.55. My trading suggestion for today is to buy small long positions on an intra day basis and should we see a break above $14.50 then look to build on these by adding further long positions as we move forward during the week.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support: $13.780 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $14.610 (high of 20/02/09)

Support: $13.590 (low of 23/03/09) Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support: $13.410 (low of 20/03/09) Resistance: $14.050 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 11 2009, 09:39 GMT

Spot Price Silver

Fri, May 8 2009, 09:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

As usual spot price silver tracked gold, initially moving up and above the $14.00 per ounce level but as with gold, traders and investors then indulged in profit taking ahead of today's non farm payroll data.  So far this week spot silver has outperformed gold for a variety of reasons including a growing perception that it is undervalued compared with gold, that any economic recovery will lead to an increase of silver as an industrial metal and that the commodity market in general is likely to provide a better return.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed higher but with a deep upper shadow for the reasons outlined above, and with all three moving averages now providing support to a further move higher, there is no reason to suppose that we should not see spot silver break above $14.00 per ounce once again ahead of a move to re-test the highs of mid March in the $14.50 region.  A further factor at present which is also helping the price of silver move higher is the current ongoing supply issues in the copper market which is acting as a catalyst for other commodities, such as silver.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $13.650 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.610 (high of 20/02/09)

Support:    $13.590 (low of 23/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.400 (high of 19/02/09)

Support:    $13.410 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $14.145 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 8 2009, 09:31 GMT

Spot Price Silver

Thu, May 7 2009, 09:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Once again the spot price silver continued to generate more momentum than gold moving up 35 cents to settle at $13.665, breaching the high set in late April and now looking set to challenge the $14.00 per ounce price mark.   Silver prices were also given a boost not only by a growing realisation that it is undervalued compared with gold, but also by renewed optimism on a recovery in the global economy which would lead to an increase in silver for industrial uses.   From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar made it three in a row and with a follow through into this morning's price action this could be followed by a fourth, which may well breach the $14.00 per ounce price point sooner than I expected.  With the 9 day now crossing the 40 day moving averages and with all three averages pointing higher we now have strong bullish signals supporting the move in the spot price silver chart, and we could now see a re-test of the $14.50 silver price level in due course.  My trading suggestion for today is once again to look for small long trades on an intra day basis with a stop loss below the $12.24 price point.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $13.250 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $14.000 (psychological level)

Support:    $13.080 (low of 27/03/09)                                   Resistance: $13.900 (high of 23/03/09)

Support:    $12.980 (low of 05/05/09)                                   Resistance: $13.830 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 7 2009, 09:26 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Wed, May 6 2009, 08:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Once again silver prices outperformed gold yesterday largely for technical reasons once spot silver prices managed to breach the late April high of $13.25 whereas gold failed to hold onto early gains.  In addition market commentators have suggested that silver prices may be gaining momentum as it appears to be undervalued compared with gold.  The gold silver ratio is currently around 70 but has averaged about 65 since the early 1980s.  From this experts have calculated that silver could average $14 in the third quarter and even reaching $16 by the fourth quarter.

From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar on the back of dollar weakness and inflation worries closed at $13.33 per ounce, up 27 cents.  However, the candle closed looking a little "toppy" on the day but this slight weakness seems to have been discounted in this morning's early trading with silver prices moving ahead once again and currently standing at $13.4350.  With all three moving averages now turning and adding support, and with the 9 day now crossing the 40 providing a strong bullish signal, we should see a continuation in this price move today, and my suggestion is as per yesterday and to look for small long trades on an intra day basis and to close out profits as soon as possible, given the background of important fundamental news in the next few days.  My only area of concern is at the $13.85 region which could provide temporary resistance to any move higher and as we approach this region we will need to be more cautious in our silver trading.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.980 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.900 (high of 23/03/09)

Support:    $12.812 (9 day moving average)                              Resistance: $13.755 (high of 26/03/09)

Support:    $12.675 (low of 24/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.592 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 6 2009, 08:57 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Tue, May 5 2009, 08:34 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices continued to outperform spot gold prices on the back of a weaker dollar and better than expected construction and home sales data in the US.  Silver prices also mirrored positive moves in other metals such as copper which gained 2.7% on the day despite thin trading volumes as investors continue to take a more optimistic view of the global economy.  From a technical perspective silver closed the day on a wide spread up bar finishing comfortably above all three moving averages and closing marginally ahead of the $13 per ounce price point on a strong move upwards.  The key for the next few days will be to see whether this upward momentum can continue or whether the raft of economic data coupled with thinner volumes due to the Japanese extended holiday, and the bank stress results are likely to have a major impact across all the major markets.  To summarize trading in all commodities is likely to be difficult this week particularly in silver and gold which are both range bound therefore making swing trade the trading order of the day.  A sustained move above $13.75 will suggest a return of the bullish trend and a fall below $11.75 a possible breakout to the downside.  With the moving averages consolidating these provide little in the way of meaningful analysis at present, and as such we have to look to other market indicators for helpful analysis and direction.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.410 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.360 (high of 30/03/09)
Support:    $12.340 (low of 28/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.240 (high of 27/04/09)
Support:    $12.180 (low of 30/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.153 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 5 2009, 08:34 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Fri, May 1 2009, 09:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

In percentage terms spot silver prices were hit harder yesterday than gold, on a combination of technical selling and investors rediscovering their appetite for risk by moving back into the equity market.  Although silver prices managed to recoup some of these early losses as the gains in the equity markets faded, the price of silver fell by 31 cents to settle at $12.350 per ounce, breaking and closing below both the 9 and 14 moving averages.

From a technical perspective with prices now below all three moving averages we may see a gentle slide downwards or possibly consolidation in the $12 to $13 region as markets await any potential effect of the swine flu pandemic, which could provide the short to medium term direction.  My trading suggestion for today is to stand aside as many markets will be closed for the May Day holiday and trading volumes will, as a consequence, be very thin and price action erratic.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.180 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.010 (high of 03/04/09)

Support:    $12.110 (low of 09/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.940 (high of 28/04/09)

Support:    $11.980 (low of 22/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.810 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 1 2009, 09:31 GMT

Spot Silver Price

Thu, Apr 30 2009, 08:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices rose with gold prices yesterday as the US dollar weakened, and consumer spending showed an increase, but all of this was against the backdrop of the GDP data which showed a weaker than expected result for U.S. first quarter gross domestic product, coming in at -6.1% compared to a contraction of -6.3% during the final quarter of 2008. Whilst the numbers may have helped weaken the dollar across the board, inside the report was perhaps a further sign that the largest elements of government, corporate and consumer spending were now spent, which provided the good news story for the broader markets.  The economic data helped spot silver outperform gold fuelling speculation of a faster recovery in global demand, particularly as silver is classified as an industrial metal and therefore more widely used in industry than gold. As is often the case ( and as I have mentioned several times before in various commentaries ) when commodity prices rise, silver will generally perform better than gold on a percentage basis, but as always the corollary is that when prices fall, the price of silver tends to move more dramatically than gold.

Technically silver prices closed the day on the silver chart with a wide spread up bar, but perhaps worryingly with a deep upper wick, which bounced off the 40 day moving average to close the day midway between this and the 9/14 day averages which have now converged, and with a 25 cents gain during the trading session. For any sustained move higher in silver prices we will need to see various elements combine, and in particular we need to see a break above the current congestion and resistance now in place between $12.75 and $13.25, coupled with a move through the 40 day moving average. Trading silver ( and other commodities) is extremely difficult at present given the markets perverse view of any fundamental news at present, and in addition for industrial metals such as silver, we also have the swine flu issue to consider and its impact on global markets. Should this become a pandemic then the effects could be far reaching across all markets, not least those dependant on any economic upturn such as silver. Indeed many analysts now believe that until the toxic asset issue is firmly dealt with, then further banking collapses may still be in the pipeline, and until this issue is firmly addressed and assets clearly identified any recovery may be short lived and fleeting.

My trading suggestion for spot silver today, as for gold, is to look for small profit opportunities trading long positions in the 15 minute and 30 minute charts, and with small profit targets intraday.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.390 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.010 (high of 03/04/09)

Support:    $12.169 (low of 08/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.940 (high of 28/04/09)

Support:    $12.110 (low of 09/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.820 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Apr 30 2009, 08:49 GMT

Spot Silver Price − 29th April 2009

Wed, Apr 29 2009, 10:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver prices too fell sharply yesterday falling 44 cents to finish at $12.43 per ounce on fears concerning the economic consequences of a swine flu pandemic.  In percentage terms spot silver fell more heavily than the price of gold which is often the case in a bearish move, and the opposite tends to occur in a bullish move with silver then outperforming gold.  The fall was also partially attributable to a hangover from the previous day and to some extent was catching up with the fall in the price of gold.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread down bar came as little of a surprise following on the back of the gapped up down bar of Monday, always a strong bearish signal and replicated in the gold chart with a dark cloud over pattern, reinforcing this view on the silver chart.  Prices duly fell through both the 40 day and the 14 day moving averages but stopped just short of the 9 day moving average which seems to have provided a degree of support preventing the price of silver falling further.  However, unlike the gold chart there is little in the way of support immediately below the current price point either in the recent trading sessions or even further back.

Indeed we need to look back as far as December 2008 to find a concentrated level of support at $11.50.  Given this
scenario, should we see a further break lower not only could prices fall to this region but they could also fall much more quickly than gold.   My analysis of the gold chart would suggest that we may be seeing a re-basing of the precious metal in the $895 per ounce but this is very tentative at this stage and as we can see from the above there is little in the silver chart to suggest the same is happening.  Given the above my suggestion for today's trading is to look for small long positions intra day (largely based on my gold analysis) in the 15 and 30 min charts aiming for small profit targets and using a tight stop loss.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.340 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.240 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $12.169 (low of 08/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.010 (high of 03/04/09)

Support:    $12.110 (low of 09/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.940 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Apr 29 2009, 10:51 GMT

Spot Silver Price − 28th April 2009

Tue, Apr 28 2009, 09:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

An interesting day for the price of silver which initially opened the session gapped up on a "rising window" and at one point even reached an intraday high of $13.240 per ounce.  However, the session ended on a down bar as silver prices followed gold and other commodities as the dollar strengthened on fears that the swine flu epidemic, which originated in Mexico, now threatens to turn pandemic, closing the day marginally above the 40 day moving average and also the close of Friday.   Yesterday's candle was unusual in the sense that a rising window pattern will almost always result in an up bar on the day and rarely a down bar, but given the unusual combination of circumstances including economic turmoil and a major worldwide health scare we are now entering very uncertain times which will make trading even more challenging and unpredictable.  My trading suggestion for today is to find small short positions intra day using the 15 and 30 minute charts and using very tight stop losses.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.780 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $13.360 (high of 30/03/09)

Support:    $12.675 (low of 24/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.265 (high of 31/03/09)

Support:    $12.550 (low of 14/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.240 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Apr 28 2009, 09:38 GMT

Spot Silver Prices − 27th April 2009

Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:39 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Although silver is often described as gold's poor relation it still remains a classic inflation hedge and safe haven whilst still behaving as an industrial metal as it is estimated that over half of the annual supply of silver is now used by industry in sectors as wide ranging as medicine and aerospace compared with only 11% for gold.  With continuing financial uncertainty and a combination of technical momentum and fundamentals silver prices moved higher on Friday gaining as much as 7 cents on the day and closing a tad under $13.   This move was also in part a response to Friday's weaker dollar which is also helping to push up the price of other commodities.

From a technical perspective Friday's candle closed above the 40 day moving average and added a fifth straight day of gains on the week adding to the bullish tone seen earlier.  This trend has continued in early trading this morning with silver prices opening significantly higher and, more importantly, gapped up (a rising window) which suggests that this momentum may well be sustained in the short term, given that we are now above the $13 per ounce level.   As with the price of gold on the gold chart, the weekly silver chart has given us a bullish engulfing signal, and therefore my trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions on an intra day basis and buying into the market on any dips, with a stop loss marginally below the $12 per ounce price point.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.675 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $13.265 (high of 31/03/09)

Support:    $12.550 (low of 14/04/09)                                   Resistance: $13.175 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $12.300 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $12.943 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:39 GMT

Spot Silver Prices − Daily Chart

Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Spot silver closed sharply higher yesterday on the back of the rally in spot gold prices as investors renewed their flight to quality and safety.  The move was in part driven by a both a weaker dollar and a decline in the stock market as underlying worries about the economy and the results of bank stress tests resurfaced.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up bar closed marginally below the 40 day moving average and partially breached the resistance at $12.80 per ounce and beyond which could provide a barrier to any move higher in the short term.  For any comfortable longer term trading we need to see this region breached with some momentum coupled with a move above the 40 day moving average, and in early trading this morning we are seeing silver prices once again toying with this particular average.  Following on from yesterday's market commentary in which I suggested small long positions with tight stop losses, I would advocate the same today and to lock in any profits from yesterday's trading.  Please also bear in mind that with the weekend ahead we could see traders squaring positions today ahead of the market close so take care before opening any new positions.  In addition we also have a G7 finance ministers meeting over the weekend, and whilst market analysts generally agree that there will be little news to spook the market it pays to take a cautious view.

The short term trend is sideways while medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $12.300 (yesterday’s low)         Resistance: $13.000 (psychological level)

Support:    $12.110 (low of 09/04/09)        Resistance: $12.940 (high of 15/04/09)

Support:    $12.028 (low of 07/04/09)        Resistance: $12.877 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:21 GMT

The short term trend is bearish while medium and long term trends are bullish

Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The sell off in the stock market prompted in part by fresh worries about the banking sector spooked investors and prompted yesterday’s rise in the spot silver price. The move was significant given the strength of US dollar. From a technical perspective yesterday’s up bar provided little in the way of a clear trading signal for daily silver prices, and certainly nothing to suggest that the current downward trend is likely to reverse in the next few days. Indeed the high of yesterday failed to breach the minor support level at $12.10 and with prices still below all moving averages we can assume that, for the time being, the bearish feel remains firmly in place. Given silver’s recent positive correlation with copper prices and news today that China is having to sell 100 tonnes of the metal in order to re-balance its stocks, my suggestion for today is to look for small short positions on the intra day silver chart and using a tight stop loss, with any profits closed out quickly.

The short term trend is bearish while medium and long term trends are bullish.

• Support: $11.800 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $12.351 (9 day moving average)
• Support: $11.637 (low of 29/01/09) Resistance: $12.270 (high of 17/04/09)
• Support: $11.577 (high of 02/01/09) Resistance: $12.190 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:41 GMT