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Gold Trading

Wed, Sep 16 2009, 07:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's gold trading price continued the bullish momentum for spot gold ending the trading session with an up candle but with a deep lower wick suggesting that we should see a stronger move higher in gold prices in the gold term.  Indeed this view is reinforced by several candles over the last few days on the daily gold chart which have all ended the trading session with deep lower wicks which have subsequently found support from the 9 and 14 day moving averages, which is always a positive sign that the bullish trend will be sustained.  With the daily close of yesterday finishing well above the $1000 per ounce level we are now in a strong position to see gold prices push higher from this solid platform and break well into the $1000 plus region in the medium term.  This trend high is fully supported by all three moving averages which are pointing sharply higher.

Support:   984.50        Resistance:  1010.60

Support:   964.70        Resistance:  982.78

Support:   944.80         Resistance:  963.25

Published on  Wed, Sep 16 2009, 07:33 GMT

Gold Price

Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Another interesting day for gold traders yesterday, with spot gold prices once again flirting at the $1000 per ounce level, initially opening gapped up above this price point, but finally ending the gold trading session marginally below.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended with a narrow spread down bar but with a relatively deep lower wick which found support from the 9 day moving average in much the same way as for Thursday's candle last week, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains intact for the time being despite what the pessimists (and UBS) are suggesting.  This bullish momentum has been given added impetus by news that central banks are set to become net buyers of gold this year for the first time since 1998.  With all three moving averages pointing sharply higher and with the technical support outlined above we should see spot gold prices breach and hold the 4 figure level in due course before moving higher in the medium term and my trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions on an intra day basis buying on any dips and particularly where the price touches the 9 day moving average.

Support:   984.50        Resistance:  1010.60

Support:   964.70        Resistance:  982.78

Support:   944.80         Resistance:  963.25

Published on  Tue, Sep 15 2009, 07:20 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Sun, Sep 13 2009, 12:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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A strong week for spot gold prices, with the gold market flirting at the $1000 per ounce level once again, and of course all gold traders and market analysts are now asking themselves whether we are likely to see a failure at this price level once again. Thursday's candle on the daily gold chart certainly hinted at some weakness, ending the gold trading session with a bearish shooting star, which was confirmed on Friday, with the spot gold market closing lower and marginally below the $1000 per ounce price once again, but with a deep lower wick to the body of the candle, suggesting that the gold bulls stepped in to buy late in the trading session. Technically gold prices still look strong, with all three moving averages pointing sharply higher, but the previous failed attempts at this level may prove critical should we fail to see any break and hold above this psychological level. Next week may well prove to be a defining one for the gold market, which may react to any change in investor sentiment towards the US dollar, with many market analysts and forex market commentators suggesting that the US dollar is currently oversold and therefore due for a market correction and sharp reversal higher. Should this occur in the short term then this may well trigger a sell off in the commodity markets which could in turn result in a fall in spot gold prices as a result. However, as always, gold may well benefit from it's status as a precious metal, and therefore any correlation with the broader commodity markets is not a given, should the US dollar rally as expected in the short term.

Support:   984.50        Resistance:  1010.60

Support:   964.70        Resistance:  982.78

Support:   944.80         Resistance:  963.25

Published on  Sun, Sep 13 2009, 12:23 GMT

Spot Gold Price Breakout

Sun, Sep 13 2009, 11:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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This is a classic example of a breakout from a pennant pattern which we had been following in the spot gold market for several weeks, and is covered in more detail on my daily market commentary for the spot gold market. As we can see from the daily gold chart, spot gold prices had been consolidating in an increasingly narrow trading range, forming the pennant pattern as a result which is outlined with the two lines above and below which give the pattern it's name. Such trading is typified by prices moving in a ever small range day after day, until one day we see the explosive breakout that occured in the spot gold market recently, with the breakout on this occasion coming to the upside. There are two things to note in order to trade such breakouts, and the first is simply that the longer the sideways consolidation continues, then the greater will be the force and speed of the breakout when it does occur - much like a tightly coiled spring. The second point to note is that generally the breakout will be in the same direction as that which the market was taking before the start of the consolidation, so in this case we were expecting a break to the upside as the more likely for spot gold prices in this case.

The question of course, is whilst we can see the pennant forming on the daily chart, how do we benefit as traders, and the simple answer is in two ways. First we can trade the breakout before it happens by placing a long straddle in position using options. This is known as a directionless trade, as we benefit whichever way the breakout comes, but ONLY if the trade is in place when the breakout occurs. Should the market continue to consolidate sideways, then this trade will lose, unless you sell any remaining option value back to the market. So the key to success with this trade is in the timing, and you must therefore allow sufficient time for the trade to develop such that the options do not expire before the breakout occurs, and my suggestion for such trades is normally around 3 months, which I suggested on thisoccasion to my regular readers. The second trading option is to wait for the breakout and then to trade in the direction the breakout has occurred once the market has settled - more risky as we often see considerable volatility following the breakout from the trading range, but nevertheless this is a second way to trade - however, my preferred trading strategy for breakouts is always to use the straddle option strategy wherever possible, and if you would like further details please just follow the link here which explains this in more detail.

Published on  Sun, Sep 13 2009, 11:14 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Sep 9 2009, 12:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Another strong day for spot gold prices yesterday which surged higher once again and broke through the psychological $1000 level which arrived sooner than even I expected.  Technically yesterday's candle has a degree of weakness signified by the deep upper wick and whilst this is someway short of a "shooting star" it does perhaps suggest that we are currently seeing the bulls taking some profits off the table whilst the market pauses before deciding to push higher once again.  With all three moving averages pointing sharply higher and with the breakout from the recent pennant now firmly established, we should see a continuation of the strong upwards trend over the next few weeks.  What is interesting, however, for spot gold prices is that they the recent rise is disproportionate to the corresponding US dollar weakness which although still bearish has certainly not collapsed as would be suggested by the recent rise in gold prices.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions buying on any pullback and particularly once we see a breach and hold above the $1000 per ounce.

Support:   984.50        Resistance:  1010.60

Support:   964.70        Resistance:  982.78

Support:   944.80         Resistance:  963.25

Published on  Wed, Sep 9 2009, 12:41 GMT

Spot Gold Price Trading Analysis

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Speculation surrounding the sudden surge in gold prices continues and summed up the FT's Alphaville Blog simply as "gold madness" for which no one has a good explanation.   Whatever the reasons (fundamental, technical or a blend of the two)  following the breakout from the pennant pattern on the daily gold chart on Wednesday, yesterday's price action simply confirmed the move as expected with a surge higher in gold prices which ended the day on a wide spread up bar, and just failing to breach the $1000 per ounce level, which now seems certain to be reached if not today, certainly early next week. More significantly, the gold market broke above the resistance in the $982 price level, and with virtually no other resistance ahead, the longer term trend higher appears established. With all three moving averages pointing higher, and with the strong breakout now complete there is only one way to trade gold in the short term and that is to the long side. With the long weekend ahead, and following the sharp gains of the last two days, we may see some short term profit taking today, as gold traders square their positions ahead of the three day weekend, but the trend next week should pick up again on Tuesday as the gold trading markets open once again in the US and Canada - have a great weekend and enjoy the ride in the next few weeks!

Published on  Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:27 GMT

Gold Trading Analysis for Spot Gold

Thu, Sep 3 2009, 11:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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As has been discussed in some detail in this gold market commentary the breakout in spot gold prices finally happened yesterday with both force and momentum as spot gold prices closed the gold trading session on a very wide spread up bar which finally broke out of the pennant pattern, and as a result we may now see the start of a serious bullish trend.  Yesterday's surge higher took spot gold prices to near three month highs as risk averse investors turned to the precious metal after equity markets appeared to wobble.  The rise pushed gold above some important resistance levels, in turn triggering a wave of technical buying which, at one point, took the price of spot gold to an intraday high of $975.70 per ounce, up 2% on the day and the highest since early June.  What is interesting is that the rise in gold prices comes at a time of low jewellery demand, particularly from India, the world's largest consumer of bullion, and whilst  physical demand for gold has improved compared with the start of the year, the latest import data for India shows that consumption remains weak.  The latest import figures from the Bombay Bullion Association showed that although imports rose in August from July to 12-14 tonnes, they were still almost 90% down from the same month last year.  This lacklustre performance is significant as traditionally Indian importers step up their buying ahead of the Diwali festival which this year is due in mid October and often marks the peak for retail jewellery demand.  Gold prices hit an all time high of almost $1,035 per ounce in March 2008 since when it has traded in a range between $700 and $1000, supported by investor inflows seeking refuge from the financial crisis.  From a technical perspective yesterday's dramatic wide spread up bar at one point almost threatened to break above the resistance at $985, before finally settling marginally below, but given that we have now seen the end of this particular signal, we should see a sustained move higher in due course, with the $1000 per ounce gold price target now firmly in sight.  Yesterday's move was also accompanied with good volume in gold futures and with all three moving averages pointing firmly higher, and with very little resistance now ahead, the bullish sentiment created in this breakout should continue for some time to come and therefore provide some excellent trade trading opportunities for gold traders in the next few weeks.

Published on  Thu, Sep 3 2009, 11:05 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The gold market continues to tighten into an ever small trading range as the pennant pattern is reinforced still further as each trading day passes, with yesterday's gold trading session being no exception, with the  long legged doji of yesterday confirming this technical pattern in classical fashion. The longer this price action continues then the greater will be the momentum of the breakout on the daily spot gold chart when it does eventually arrive, and any move will no doubt be dramatic. The key, of course, is when this may occur which is always the most difficult question to answer, and for gold trading at present this is a classical trading set up for the straddle, either long or short. The long straddle is designed to take advantage of this increased volatility by purchasing a put option and a call option at the same strike price and expiry, and is often called a directionless trade - put simply, as long as we see increased volatility then the trade will profit as long as this occurs before the option expiry date. The question then is how far out should we buy, but as a general rule you should allow sufficient time for the option trade to develop, but should this not occur, then to have some option value remaining which can be sold back to the market. The second trading strategy is to use the short straddle which benefits if the market continues to trade in a narrow range, as at present. By collecting the option premium as a short seller you hope that the market remains quiet with no volatility, in which case the options provide a profit. Again the expiry time is critical, and as an option seller you want time on your site which is a wasting asset for the buyer as time erodes the premium and any remaining option value with increasing speed as the option expiry date approaches. So in summary, two classical approaches to trading in the gold market at present. Friday of course is Non Farm Payroll again, but whether this will provide the catalyst is anyone's guess - probably not, but we will almost certainly see increased volatility on the day as the gold market too reacts to the numbers.

Support: $930.35   Resistance: $955.67

Support: $918.23   Resistance: $929.89

Support: $905.43  Resistance: $917.90

Published on  Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:47 GMT

gold Trading Analysis

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Gold prices finished the month almost exactly where they had started, and ended the gold trading session today with a bearish flavour represented on the daily gold chart with a wide spread down bar but with a deep lower wick thereby giving gold bulls a modicum of comfort.  What is most interesting, however, about yesterday's  gold trading session, is that the price of gold remained well within the pennant envelope outlined in my previous gold commentary, suggesting once again that the consolidation of the last few weeks has some way to go, and that when we see the breakout occur, it will be dynamic and forceful.  In the meantime we have to wait for this to occur, and in yesterday's trading, gold like many other commodities, took it's lead from the Chinese equity markets which saw significant falls.  From a technical perspective both the 9  and 14 day moving averages still seem to be supporting the low or close of each trading day, which would suggest that when the breakout does occur it may well be to the upside. In the meantime we have to be patient and wait for the pennant pattern to be breached which will then indicate that a new trend in gold prices is about to be established once again.   Overall spot gold prices closed at $951.76 per ounce having reached a high of $960.40 and touched a low of $944.85 per ounce.

Support: $930.35   Resistance: $955.67

Support: $918.23   Resistance: $929.89

Support: $905.43  Resistance: $917.90

Published on  Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:42 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Gold prices ended the week in much the same way as they started, with gold trading in a tight range once again, despite an attempt to break higher early in the trading session, with the close of the week finishing well withing the envelope of the pennant formation which I have indicated on today's gold chart. The point of the pennant seems to be heading towards to the $950 per ounce region, with the high of Friday just breaking the upper boundary of this technical formation. With Labor day fast approaching, and the start of a new month for gold traders, we can only hope that this will signal the end of this long period of consolidation for gold prices, and a consequent break out and move away from this relatively narrow trading range. Once the pennant formation has been broken, then we should see a new trend established for the gold market in due course, as the spot gold and gold futures markets return to more normal trading volumes as the summer period comes to an end.

Support: $930.35   Resistance: $955.67

Support: $918.23   Resistance: $929.89

Support: $905.43  Resistance: $917.90

Published on  Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:38 GMT

Spot Gold Trading Analysis

Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday we saw gold prices break out of their recent consolidation pattern as a result of a weaker dollar, equity market strength and a surge in crude oil prices.   From a technical perspective the gold trading session ended the day on neat little up bar with a deepish lower wick.  The body of the candle broke through both the 9 and 14 day moving averages and the wick perched on the 40 day.  In addition the high of the day managed to pierce the $950 per ounce price handle - all good, positive signals for gold bulls.   However, before the bulls get too carried away we are now at the weekend as well as facing a bank holiday in the UK and month end when many traders and funds will be squaring positions so it may be prudent to wait gold trading resumes next week to see if yesterday's minor breakout and momentum is maintained.  Have a great weekend.

Support: $930.35   Resistance: $955.67

Support: $918.23   Resistance: $929.89

Support: $905.43  Resistance: $917.90

Published on  Fri, Aug 28 2009, 10:37 GMT

Gold Trading Analysis

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 09:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Another day of indecision and volatile price moves as the gold market continues to trade in an increasingly narrow consolidation range, and ending the gold trading session with a long legged doji which once again neatly sums up the day - indecisive and lacking any direction. With all three moving averages now tightly bunched there is little in the way of any meaningful analysis from these technical indicators, and until this sideways price action on the gold chart is breached with a breakout to the upside or downside, there is little more that one can say at present.  My feeling is that the gold market is now waiting for a return to higher trading volumes once we enter a new month with traders returning from the summer holidays, and sparking the gold market into life once again.  In addition the gold price has also suffered from ETP (Exchange Traded Products) withdrawals which in July saw the second largest monthly outflow since the inception of this product back in 2003, with a lot of this money finding its way into the equity market.    The major technical levels are now defined at $975 and $905 and should one of these be breached then we can assume that a new trading trend has been established and to trade the gold market accordingly. In the meantime with the gold chart now forming a strong pennant formation on the daily chart, with the point of the pennant around the $950 per ounce price level, we must now wait for a breakout from this increasingly congested price region on the gold chart. When the breakout does occur it will be dramatic and one of the best ways to benefit from the current trading set up is to use a straddle strategy using options, a directionless trade which wins provided we see a volatile move in one direction or the other. For gold trading, this now seems increasingly likely as we continue to trade in an ever tighter range, but this volatile move may not appear until the start of next month as gold traders return to the market and gold futures volumes pick up once again.

Support: $930.35   Resistance: $955.67

Support: $918.23   Resistance: $929.89

Support: $905.43  Resistance: $917.90

Published on  Thu, Aug 27 2009, 09:14 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Another confusing day of trading in the gold market, as gold prices rose in the early part of the trading session, only to fall later in the day, and close below the 9 day and 14 day moving averages once again. As outlined in yesterday's gold market commentary, it is becoming increasingly difficult to forecast the future direction for gold prices, given the thin trading volumes ( particularly in the gold futures market), the lack of news and the general lack of trading due to the summer holidays which are all adding the uncertain and unpredictable price moves. Today, has once again left us with a bearish tone to the daily gold chart, ending the session with a small body to the candle and a deep upper shadow, with the high of the day once again failing to hold above the $955 per ounce, and with yet another lower high, adding to the weak technical picture. For any long term trend we now need to see a sustained breakout from this sideways consolidation, and indeed for any meaningful move we may have to wait until the early part of September as gold traders return in force to the gold trading market.  Until then the technical picture looks bearish, with intra day trading opportunities to the short side the order of the day for gold traders.

S: 965.05   R: 982.60

S: 944.90   R: 961.72

S: 905.85   R: 932.65

Published on  Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:38 GMT

Gold Trading Analysis 24 Aug 2009

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 22:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The pullback outlined in yesterday's gold trading post arrived today with some force on the daily gold trading chart, ending the trading session with a wide spread down candle which closed below the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, but which seemed to find some support from the 40 day moving average once again. However, today's gold trading price action is concerning for gold bulls for several reasons. Firstly as discussed yesterday, any failure at the $955 price level would indicate that the resistance at this level has held firm technically. Secondly a failure at this level would create a series of lower highs since early August, which again is not a positive signal, and finally with a breach of both moving averages this is adding the the general bearish tone for gold prices at present. This consolidated trading range on the daily gold chart is now becoming increasingly difficult to forecast from a technical analysis perspective and with the fundamental news now appearing to drive gold prices, the technical weight of any analysis seems diminished at present. Until we see a clear breakout above the $970 per ounce level, or alternatively a fall below the $905 per ounce region, any gold trading opportunities will be limited to intra day scalping rather than longer term trend trading, and given the bearish nature at present, I would suggest looking for small short positions tomorrow with tight stop losses and small profit targets using the 30 minute gold charts.

Published on  Mon, Aug 24 2009, 22:27 GMT

Gold Trading Analysis

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 07:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Even before the end of the  Jackson Hole Symposium at which the world's central bankers expressed cautious optimism on the oulook for the global economy and the view that current ultra low interest rates could be maintained without generating excessive inflation, Friday's gold trading session had already ended the day on a wide spread up bar.   This move reinforced our technical view that gold prices had found some support in the last few days at the 40 day moving average, and as a result provided the platform to the price move with the close of the day breaching all three moving averages and closing well above the 14 day moving average.   The only issues moving into Monday's gold trading session is that Friday's close ended at precisely the $953 per ounce level, apparently failing to penetrate the resistance level now in place at this price handle. For this move to be sustained we need to see this level breached, and should this occur on Monday, then we can consider small long positions on an intra day basis using the 30 minute and 60 minute charts, with a medium term target of $965, just below the next resistance level. Alternatively, should this fail to materialise, then we could ses yet another pull back from this level.

Support: 943.20        Resistance : 958.50

Support: 930.73        Resistance : 937.86

Support: 920.64        Resistance : 929.78

Published on  Mon, Aug 24 2009, 08:02 GMT

Gold Trading

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 20:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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A somewhat desultory day for gold trading today which ended the trading session in a tight range bounded between the 9 and 40 day moving averages.  Technically today's candle was similar in many respects to yesterday's with a relatively narrow body and lower shadow although today's was less marked than Wednesday's.  The noticeable similarity between the two is the support that gold prices seem to have found from the 40 day moving average, and despite today's marginal fall in spot gold prices the overall picture still remains mildly bullish for tomorrow and as a result we may expect to see a small rise once again.  Naturally with gold prices trading in the $910 to $965 region at some point we will need to see a sustained breakout in order to confirm any change in sentiment and the establishment of a new trend.  In the meantime gold trading will be limited to short term intra day opportunities.  The usual caveat applies as gold traders will be looking to square their positions ahead of the weekend and given that we are still deep in the summer lull gold futures may be even thinner than usual with consequent volatile and random moves on any minor fundamental news item.

Published on  Thu, Aug 20 2009, 20:06 GMT

Gold Trading

Wed, Aug 19 2009, 20:27 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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In yesterday's gold trading commentary we pondered on the short term direction for gold prices and reasons for their relative stability given the gyrations elsewhere in the financial markets.  Figures released by the World Gold Council may go some way to explaining what has been happening in the gold trading market.  It appears that world gold demand fell 9% in the second quarter to 719.5 tonnes as rising prices and the impact of the global recession curbed jewellery consumption except in China, which is the world's second largest consumer, and here jewellery sales rose 6% to 72.5 tonnes with sales in Greater China (which includes Hong Kong and Taiwan) up 4% to 78.7 tonnes.  However, this decline has been counterbalanced by a sharp rise across a variety of gold investment products which has driven demand for gold to 222.4 tonnes from 151.9 tonnes last year, with gold backed ETFs rising sharply year on year.  Although ETF inflows slipped to 56.7 tonnes in the second quarter from a record 465.10 tonnes in the first three months of the year, they were still well ahead of last year's second quarter inflows of just 4 tonnes. On the supply side central banks have turned into net purchasers of gold with 14 tonnes bought by this sector against net sales of 69 tonnes in the same quarter last year.  While central bank sales for the first half of the year totalled 38.7 tonnes, the lowest level since the first half of 1997, the  WGC confirmed that "Central banks outside the Central Bank Gold Agreement have been net purchasers since the second half of 2006 and gross purchases of almost 3o tonnes were recorded by central banks outside the CBGA during Q2 2009."  The WGC went on to state "Although confidentiality issues prevents a detailed dissection of the numbers, it is worth noting that these purchases comprise modest net additions in a number of countries, rather than large purchases by just one or two countries".  According to the WGC overall world gold supply was up 14% year on year to 927 tonnes from 812 tonnes, so plenty for gold bugs to ponder.

Meanwhile from a technical perspective the gold trading session had an interesting day, and indeed was a roller coaster ride with early falls being cancelled out following a resurgence in both oil prices and equities.  The candle created as a result was a deep hammer which has several unusual aspects to consider for tomorrow's gold trading.  First the depth of the lower shadow suggests that the gold bulls are back in the market and we may see a further rise in gold prices in early trading, as a result.  Secondly the low of the day found support just above the $930 per ounce which was similar to that of Monday's gold trading session.  Thirdly the close of the day found support from the 40 day moving average, and finally the resistance in place in the $937 price region also seems to provide support for spot gold prices.  All these factors would tend to suggest that we should see a rise in gold prices tomorrow but do bear in mind that with the gold market currently being driven by external forces and with the close proximity of the various moving averages any trading opportunities will tend to be limited to intra day rather than position trades.

Published on  Wed, Aug 19 2009, 20:29 GMT

Gold Trading Price

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 20:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Wither spot gold prices which during this recent phase of market optimism that has driven global equities more than 50% higher since March, have remained relatively stable.  Gold prices during this period have not really sold off dramatically during periods of elevated risk appetite, nor have they risen strongly through the many bouts of risk aversion.  Meanwhile the dollar sell off since March seems to have had a limited impact on gold trading.  So what will propel spot gold prices out of their current lukewarm gold trading range of $890 and $970 per ounce?  Inflation, where are thou?  Perhaps the gold chart and the Dollar Index can give us some clues.  Gold trading today was restricted to an extremely tight range and technically the session ended with a small up bar but with wicks to top and bottom reminiscent of a spinning top, and providing the small bounce we anticipated in yesterday's gold market commentary.  The high of the day on the spot gold chart found resistance at the 40 day moving average which it failed to breach and therefore we must conclude that the bearish sentiment has carried over from last week.  In addition the effort to rise seems to have hit the top of the $938.50 resistance level adding weight to this bearish analysis.  This gloomy picture is further reinforced by the crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages indicating a bear cross on the daily gold chart.  Moving to the gold futures market a similar picture emerges and the bearish tone is confirmed here with today's up bar occurring on relatively low volume and gold futures trading also restricted to a very narrow range, between $935 and $941 per ounce.  My inclination for gold trading in both the gold spot and gold futures markets is that prices are likely to fall in the short term perhaps to re-test the $927 region.

The short term is bearish, medium term sideways & the long term bullish.

Support & Resistance for Spot Gold Prices

S1:    925.15    R1:   956.10
S2:    914.28              R2:   923.64
S3:    904.80             R3:   913.26

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 20:55 GMT

Gold Trading Analysis 18 August 2009

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 05:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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As spot gold prices continued to slide yesterday I hope you were able to take some profits on the way down as gold trading ended the session on a wide spread down bar which broke below the 40 day moving average closing deep within the support level between the $920 and $938 price band.  Following such a deep move we may see a small reversal tomorrow as bargain hunters come out in force to take advantage of gold's recent reversal.  However, technically spot gold prices now look weak once again in the short term as the influence of the long legged doji candle of 7 days ago continues to persist.   With the 9 day moving average now about to cross the 14 day moving average this is also adding to the downwards pressure and should we see a breach of the $925 per ounce support region then this could lead to much deeper move, possibly to re-test the $900 per ounce level in the medium term.   The extent to which gold prices may or may not decline will depend on the US Dollar and whether it will continue to strengthen in the face of deteriorating equity markets.

The short term is bearish, the medium term sideways while the long term is bullish.

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 05:31 GMT

Trading Gold Analysis

Mon, Aug 17 2009, 12:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Equity market falls on the back of profit taking and doubts that the recent rally is not based on solid foundations sent many traders and investors back into the US Dollar resulting in gold trading posting a dramatic reversal of fortunes ending the gold trading session on a wide spread down bar giving us a very strong bearish engulfing signal.   This has duly been validated in this morning's trading where gold trading prices have continued to tumble with spot gold currently trading at the $938 per ounce level and rapidly approaching both the support level and 40 day moving average.  With Friday's gold trading prices closing below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages the gold chart once again has taken a bearish feel and for the remainder of the week we may well see a move lower given that gold prices have now fallen below the strong support level in place around the $950 price point and look set to fall further and the depth of any fall in spot gold prices will be determined by the extent to which equity markets continue to decline.   My trading suggestion is to look for small short trades intra day using the 30 minute chart for suitable entry and exit points.

Short term bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support:  939.60        Resistance:  956.20
Support:  925.10        Resistance:  936.35
Support: 908.26        Resistance:  918.11

Published on  Mon, Aug 17 2009, 12:33 GMT

Gold Trading − Gold Trading Prices

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 10:10 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

As highlighted in yesterday's gold trading commentary gold trading prices reacted positively to a weaker US Dollar which helped push spot gold prices up by $8.08 per ounce to end the gold trading session at $957.15 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the spot gold price ended the day on wide spread up bar closing marginally above the 9 day moving average, a positive signal for gold trading bulls and more significantly well above the resistance in the $952-$955 price band.  With the gold market still suffering from thin trading volumes in gold futures, and traders squaring positions ahead of the weekend, today could be another volatile day for gold traders and hopefully you managed to take some profit from yesterday's trading suggestion.  My advice today remains the same, continue to look for small long trades but be aware of the next level of resistance now in place in the $962 - $965 price band.  In addition do not forget to look at the Dollar Index and have a great weekend.

The short and long term trends are bullish while the medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $948.10 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $971.75 (high of 06/08/09)

Support:    $939.78 (low of 12/08/09)                                   Resistance: $965.45 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $931.65 (low of 31/07/09)                                   Resistance: $960.52 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Aug 14 2009, 10:11 GMT

Gold Trading − Gold Spot Price Chart

Thu, Aug 13 2009, 09:33 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Gold trading yesterday was driven by a weaker US dollar and higher equities as markets responded favourably to the FED statement in which the Committee kept interest rates on hold, kept their options open regarding their bond buying programme and stated that they believed the worst of this current recession/depression was "levelling off", indeed only 10 words changing from their July statement.   The response on the gold chart was a degree of choppy trading which saw gold spot prices close up $2.60 to settle at $949.20 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle has given renewed hope to gold trading bulls, that the last few days of indecision and decline may be over, ending the gold trading session with a deep lower wick which found support from the 40 day moving average, a positive signal.  However, this perceived bullishness must be seen against the backdrop of a seasonally slow period and desperately low volumes in gold futures.  For any move high to be sustained we need to see a break and hold above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages coupled with a penetration and breach of the $955 resistance.  Should this technical factors combine then gold trading will continue its present upwards reversal.  My trading suggestion is to attempt small longs on an intraday basis now that the FED meeting has concluded but keeping a close eye on the Dollar Index.

The short and long term trends are bullish while the medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $939.78 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $965.45 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $936.37 (low of 20/07/09)                                   Resistance: $956.90 (high of 10/08/09)

Support:    $931.65 (low of 31/07/09)                                   Resistance: $952.20 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Aug 13 2009, 09:35 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Trading in gold yesterday was characterized by a total lack of participation as the markets wait on the FOMC rate decision, subsequent statement and their affect on the US Dollar.  From a technical perspective this lack of involvement was reflected on the gold chart by a small doji candle which oscillated between the 14 day and 40 day moving average.  Indeed the high of the day found some resistance from the 14 day moving average suggesting that the bearish sentiment remains firmly in place ahead of this evening's announcement.  Indeed this price action has been replicated once again in early trading and until the FED decision we can expect more of the same today.  Once the news has been released and markets have had an opportunity to absorb the content, any breach of the 40 day moving average coupled with a break below the $935 per ounce price level will flag a deeper for gold prices in the short to medium term, and should this occur then the next interim support level awaits at $925.  Only a break and hold above the $965 price level would indicate a resurgence and move higher in spot gold prices.

The short term is bearish, medium is sideways & the long term is bullish.

Support:    $941.45 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $965.45 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $936.37 (low of 20/07/09)                                   Resistance: $956.90 (high of 10/08/09)

Support:    $931.65 (low of 31/07/09)                                   Resistance: $949.77 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Aug 12 2009, 08:30 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 10:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Spot gold prices continued to fall yesterday and ended the gold trading session on a wide spread down bar which crossed both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, the move no doubt accelerated by the stops triggered at the $950 per ounce price handle.  The decline was also boosted by a moderate firming of the US Dollar.  Overall spot gold prices fell $9.52 on the day to close at $944.28 per ounce.  From a technical perspective it is the lack of volume which is contributing to the current volatility and price swings thereby making gold trading extremely tricky.  The wide spread down bar created during yesterday's gold trading session reinforced once again the almost perfect long legged doji of Thursday last week which was the first indication that all was not well with the gold chart and has since been followed by 2 strong down days.  With the close of yesterday now below both the moving averages outlined above, but perhaps more importantly the strong support level now breached in the $950 price band, this does not augur for gold bulls in the short term.  The depth of this reversal now seems set to continue for a while longer and the next technical level is the support region in the $938 per ounce level.  If this is breached then we will almost certainly pierce the 40 day moving average which will add its weight to any further move down.  With the FOMC meeting starting today and scheduled for completion tomorrow all the markets are in a state of limbo waiting for some clues as to their possible future direction and, in particular, the FED's view of the economy and hence interest rates which could provide a spark for gold and the US Dollar.

With the recent price volatility in the gold market, this has presented many trading opportunities on both sides of the market, but to be successful you need a specialist gold broker who not only understands the market, but also offers tight spreads, along with the latest news from around the world affecting the commodities sector. One of the keys to success is to practise first, so if you would like a free trial of one of the best gold trading platforms around, then please just follow the link here, and get started trading in gold.

The short term is bearish, medium term is sideways & the long term is bullish.

Support:    $942.05 (yesterday’s low)                                      Resistance: $971.75 (high of 06/08/09)
Support:    $936.37 (low of 20/07/09)                                   Resistance: $965.45 (high of 07/08/09)
Support:    $931.65 (low of 31/07/09)                                    Resistance: $956.90 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Aug 11 2009, 10:39 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Aug 10 2009, 08:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Friday's announcement that European central banks had agreed to reduce their annual sales quota of gold bullion by 20% to 400 tonnes did briefly spark some life into spot gold prices, which managed to reach an inter day high of $963 per ounce before falling back in later trading.   This reduction in the quota appears to be a fresh sign that the "anti gold" attitude of the recent past may be fading away.  The statement from the banks confirmed that gold sales "will be achieved through a concerted programme of sales over a period of five years, starting on 27 September 2009, immediately after the end of the previous agreement".  The statement continued: "Annual sales will not exceed 400 tonnes and total sales over this period will not exceed 2,000 tonnes".  This new agreement will also "accommodate" the IMF's plan to sell 403 tonnes of gold from its reserves.   However, there is doubt whether any of the top ten holders of gold bullion are likely to sell any of their holding given that the Swiss National Bank has already stated that it has no plans to sell any of its gold any time soon.  From a technical perspective Friday's widespread down bar came as no great surprise and merely confirmed the long legged doji candle formed on Thursday which I suggested would see gold prices fall as a result.  It is relatively rare to see such a clear trading signal and this candle was almost text book in its definition.  The depth of this reversal will now be dictated by the support levels immediately below, the first of which seemed to prevent any further fall on Friday from the $954 price level and the second of these sits just below at $948.  Should both of these be breached today then we may well see prices continue to drop, possibly even as far as $935 per ounce, particularly if both the 9 and 14 day moving averages are also pierced.  However, thin trading volumes will make gold trading both volatile and tricky.

Short term is bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support:    $952.85 (Friday’s low)                                           Resistance: $971.75 (high of 06/08/09)

Support:    $950.79 (low of 04/08/09)                                   Resistance: $970.20 (high of 04/08/09)

Support:    $945.95 (low of 23/07/09)                                   Resistance: $965.45 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Aug 10 2009, 08:55 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

The effect of today's Farm Payroll Data cannot be underestimated for several reasons and proving once and for all the cat's cradle that is the financial markets.  Should the numbers come in better than expected then this will prove beneficial for equities as the market has proof positive that the worst is definitely over and the recent rally has been founded on solid fact rather than sentiment and wishful thinking.  This would also confirm that the worst of the downturn in the housing sector is over and the great American consumer is now ready to start spending once again.  The consequence of this scenario is that the US Dollar will continue to weaken and commodities, such as spot gold, will surge higher.  However, if the number is worse than expected then the worst is not over, consumer spending will still be in the doldrums and equity markets may suffer a correction.  This could lead to a bounce back in the US Dollar and a consequent fall in the price of gold.   All about will be revealed in the next 90 minutes.  Meanwhile from a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the daily gold chart gave us a very clear and decisive signal ending the day with an almost perfect long legged doji, indicative of indecision and a potential turning point in the recent rally for spot gold prices.  Naturally we need to wait for this signal to be validated (or ignored), but when read in conjunction with Wednesday's hanging man candle, coupled with three failed attempts to penetrate the $970 level it seems that we may have to wait a little while longer for a run higher through the $1000 per ounce level.  The $955 price level now comes into play as an intermediate support, and should this be breached then the next price point is $950 followed by $935.  Should we see the doji confirmed then the depth of any move will be dictated by the support levels coupled with any breach of the moving averages.

Published on  Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:10 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 08:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Although most gold analysts expect spot gold prices to hit the $1000 per ounce mark at some point this is certainly not a given, and despite the bullish sentiment in place on the gold chart technically we are now approaching a pivotal point which will dictate whether this target or postponed, once again.  Gold prices took a breather yesterday with the candle closing the session marginally lower but with a deep lower wick suggesting that we could see a push higher in due course, a view also supported by all three moving averages which are now turning sharply higher.  The key to any sustained rally will be the $980 to $985 resistance level directly ahead and should this be breached then we could achieve the elusive $1000 per ounce mark in the short term.  However, what is concerning at present is that relentless and sustained dollar weakness does not seem to be reflected in spot gold prices which would normally translate into strong buying and this is also reflected in the fact that for the first time there has been a drop in the total quantity of gold held by ETFs.   In addition volumes in the gold futures market are also at an all time low, although this pattern was also evident last year when gold futures contracts simply dwindled away during the summer lull, before returning strongly in mid August.

Published on  Thu, Aug 6 2009, 08:43 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Spot gold prices (much like crude oil prices) shrugged off  their own market fundamentals of weak demand and lack of volume in gold future by ending the day on a wide spread up bar closing well above all three moving averages which are now pointing firmly higher.  This apparent disconnect between the fundamental and technical picture is characteristic of thin trading volumes coupled with random during the summer lull, making trading extremely tricky.  With spot gold prices now having broken above the strong resistance in the $950 - $955 region we should expect a run higher to re-test the $985 per ounce price point once again but it will be no great surprise to see a failure at this level once again. However, with the continued Dollar weakness and a consequent strength in equities this picture is likely to remain in place for some time and only when there is a significant shift in market sentiment, probably coupled with increased trading volumes, will the current scenario change.   Given the recent price action on the gold chart my trading suggestion is to look for small longs with a stop loss well below the support level at $945 or below but keeping in mind that spot gold prices are highly volatile for the reasons outlined above.

Published on  Wed, Aug 5 2009, 09:05 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's price action on the daily gold chart came as no great surprise following the strong upwards surge on Friday, and ended the trading session as a long legged doji suggesting that we may see a short term pullback in the price of spot gold before any push higher once again.  My primary concern, however, remains the futures volumes (or rather the lack of) which has now collapsed to yesterday's figure of just over 2k contracts on Comex, a fraction of the normal trading volume.  In the last 2 days we have seen the futures volume move from 100k plus down to just under 11k on Friday and now to a measly 2k.  This is deeply worrying, particularly as we are in a strong upwards reversal which suggests, to me, that gold market participants are not joining in the move.  Even allowing for the summer lull these volumes are at an extreme.  Overall spot gold prices ended the gold trading session at $955.81 per ounce.   My longer term trading suggestion for gold is to step aside given the current volume anomalies, but for inter day players would be to look for opportunities to the short side using the 15 min chart, although given the lack of liquidity even this may be difficult.

Short term bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support:   948     Resistance: 952

Support:   937    Resistance: 946

Support:  926     Resistance: 931

Published on  Tue, Aug 4 2009, 11:18 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Friday's wide spread up bar on the daily gold chart came as a complete surprise and to be blunt was totally unexpected and impossible to predict as the technical picture was one of a bearish reversal following last Tuesday's signal and the consequent deeper move below all three moving averages.  The driver for this sudden surge in gold prices was based on two broad factors: first continuing and chronic dollar weakness as traders and investors continue to regain their appetite for riskier assets and secondly, and as a consequence, equity markets continued to hold onto their recent gains.  However, before we all assume that this massive turnaround on the gold chart will see the spot gold price power back towards the $1000 price point within the next few trading sessions I would like to inject a cautionary note based on the gold futures volume recorded last Friday.  Having checked the volume figures, Friday's widespread up bar on Comex, was achieved on less than 11k contracts, a fraction of the normal trading volume, and just to put this into context for you a typical trading day will volumes in excess of 100k and considerably higher.  Even allowing for the summer lull and a Friday this move was extraordinary and a complete anomaly when considered using volume spread analysis techniques.  In simple terms any wide spread candle, whether up or down, should be accompanied by equivalent volume if the move is to be considered genuine.  In this case the strong move higher has been achieved with virtually no volume, and therefore raises a red flag and should therefore be viewed with extreme caution as the market is clearly not buying into the move higher.  As a result we may well see a consequent reversal of equal proportion in the short term and any trading to the long side should be approached with great care.  From a technical perspective Friday's high of the day at $958.10 per ounce pierced the resistance level in the $954 region and only a break and hold above here will confirm this somewhat suspect bull move.  Overall spot gold prices ended the day $19.13 up to settle at $953.70.   With the summer lull and such random moves in gold prices my trading suggestion to position traders is to step aside but more experienced "scalpers" will find plenty of opportunities in the current volatility.

Support:    $939.46        Resistance:  $954.35
Support:  $919.15        Resistance:  $938.74
Support: $904.26        Resistance:  $918.23

The short term is bullish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Published on  Mon, Aug 3 2009, 10:14 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jul 31 2009, 08:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Following the two steep falls in gold prices on Tuesday and Wednesday, yesterday's up candle provided some relief for gold bulls, ending the session with a narrow spread up bar, which closed the trading session marginally below the 40 day moving average, where the high of the day seemed to find some resistance to any move higher.  Coupled with this, spot gold prices are now below a congested area of consolidation which will take a considerable amount of effort to penetrate, if the losses of the last few days are to be reversed.  With inherent weakness in the daily gold chart, coupled with the momentum of the last two days, this seem unlikely at present, and certainly not today with many gold traders squaring their positions for both month end and ahead of the weekend with thin trading volumes as a result.  In addtion there is little fundamental news on the economic calendar for today, other than the advance GDP numbers in the US, to change investor sentiment.  The key to any longer term move lower will be whether the technical support levels now provide a springboard, or simply collapse under the downwards pressure, with the first of these now coming into play at the $925 per ounce level. Should this fail then the next major level is at the $905 region, and if this should also fail to provide support, then we would almost certainly see a steeper fall below the $900 per ounce level and back towards the $870 in due course.

The short term outlook is bearish, the medium term is sideways and the long term bullish

Support 925.67  Resistance 941.65
Support 905.89 Resistance 924.76
Support 890.34 Resistance 904.12

Published on  Fri, Jul 31 2009, 08:53 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 06:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's wide spread down bar for spot gold prices, merely served to reinforce the bearish engulfing candle of Tuesday on the daily gold chart, and ended the trading session at $927.20 per ounce, closing well below all three moving averages. The strength and depth of this reversal will really be defined in the next few days, with the various support levels playing a pivitol role, the first of which is now on the horzion at $925.  Should this minor level fail to hold then we could see a re-test of the major support area in the $905 price region, and a failure here could see gold prices move back to the $890 price point in the medium term. With all three moving averages now well above the price trend, this is adding further pressure to the current downwards move, the speed of which has been reinforced by the spread of the candles, clearly indicating that the move has momentum behind it, and it will therefore require some equally strong buying from the bulls to halt the slide.  Should the $905 price level be breached then any future reversal higher will require a sustained effort to break through this solid congestion if we are to see another run at the $1000 per ounce level in the longer term. The gold bulls may have to wait for some time for this price target, with the spot gold chart now looking tired.

Support 925.67  Resistance 934.23
Support 915 19 Resistance 924.89
Support 904.86 Resistance 914.32

The short term is bearish, the medium term is sideways and the long term bullish

Published on  Thu, Jul 30 2009, 06:42 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 07:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Without wishing to sound too pleased with myself, it is always nice to be proved right once in a while, and as I wrote in yesterday's market commentary for spot gold we were right to be cautious in our trading, as the weakness suggested on the gold chart of the last few days finally arrived with a vengeance. Following  6 days of indecisive candles on the daily gold chart, the signals were not encouraging and yesterday the inherent weakness in the price of gold was duly confirmed with a wide spread down bar which breached the 9 day moving average, but found some support from the 14 and 40 day averages, which are tightly bunched. The resistance at the $955 price level finally proved too strong with this level remaining intact for the time being. For any move higher we will need to see this level breached, but for now we need to consider the likely depth of an move lower, and whether this is simply a short term reversal, or longer term trend.

Yesterday's down bar has of course given us a bearish engulfing signal which would suggest a deeper move, but immediately below we have a strong level of support in the $930 to $935 price range. If this is broken then we could see a deeper move back to re-test support at the $925 region, and should this fail to hold, then a possible move lower back to $905 once again is possible in the medium term.

Short term is bearish, medium term is sideways, long term is bullish

Support 935.15   Resistance 947.89
Support 924.25   Resistance 934.78
Suport 904.65    Resistance 922.39

Published on  Wed, Jul 29 2009, 07:59 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

According to the World Gold Council India may soon lose its status as the world's largest gold consumer later this year to China which is showing an ever increasing demand for jewellery.  The Indian gold market has been hit by a weaker Rupee, which has put up the cost of owning gold bullion, taxation and a fall off in demand for jewellery.  Gold trading on Monday saw gold futures for August rise $3 or 0.3% an ounce pushing spot gold prices as high as $960 per ounce, last seen on June 11th. Overall spot gold prices gained 1.5% last week and have risen 8.7% so far this year, mirroring the advance in other commodities, such as oil and copper.    From a technical perspective yesterday's gold chart saw prices continue to move in a relatively tight trading range, ending the session marginally higher, but once again with a deep upper shadow.  This recurrent price action is increasingly suggesting weakness in the daily gold chart, as this is now the sixth consecutive time that we have seen gold prices attempt to rise, only to fall later in the trading session.  Whilst the moving averages are providing a degree of support to the attempt to move higher, the resistance level at the $953 to $955 price handle remains intact, and seems to be offering an impenetrable barrier to any move higher at present, and indeed this could be the harbinger of impending weakness.  Until we see a strong trading signal, then I would suggest a wait and see approach is the best option at present.  Should the above level be broken, then we could see a renewed effort to push higher, however, if this fails to occur, which seems to be the case at present, then a move lower seems more likely, and a re-test of the support level at the $935 price point in due course.

The short and medium term sideways, the longer term bullish.

Published on  Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:20 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jul 27 2009, 06:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Friday's candle for spot gold prices ended the trading session ahead of the weekend, with yet another doji, making this four in a row, and setting up an interesting start to the week. With such indecision on the daily gold price chart, we would be wise to be cautious in our trading in the next few days, as this could be the signal to a move lower in the short term, with all four candles having failed to break and hold above the $955 per ounce level. The resistance at this level created in late May and early June, seems to be proving to be a substantial barrier to any move higher, and should this remain intact, then we could see a re-test lower this week, back towards the $935 to $940 region initially. Whilst the 9 day moving average is providing strong support having crossed above the 40 day moving average, this could easily be reversed in any move lower, and is far from established, so we need to be careful in trading any short term move higher this week, unless the pause point of last week is ignored, and we see a break and hold above the $960 per ounce level.   Reasons that this is simply a pause point in a move higher for spot gold is simply the continuing disintegration of the US Dollar as evidenced on the Dollar Index chart, which too is at a critical point.   In addition the weekly gold chart appears broadly supportive that bullish momentum in gold prices has been established once again.

Support   940.11            Resistance   955.53
Support   931.20            Resistance   939.83
Support   921.36            Resistance   930.14

Published on  Mon, Jul 27 2009, 06:50 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 10:34 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's candle on the daily spot gold price chart, ended the trading session with a bearish 'shooting star' signal, suggesting once again that gold prices are now struggling to move higher from this level, which is an increasingly worrying sign.  For the fourth time in a row, gold prices attempted to move higher during the day, only to fail at the $955 - $957 price point, with the shooting star of yesterday being the clearest indication yet, that the resistance in place at this level is proving to be a difficult obstacle to overcome. Whilst the crossing of the 9 day moving average above the 40 day average is an encouraging sign, the failures at this level are now suggesting that we may see a pull back in due course, possibly to re-test support at the $935 price level.  With two doji candles and a shooting star this week already, then any reversal is likely to happen sooner rather than later.  My suggestion for today is to step aside, given that many gold traders will be squaring positions ahead of the weekend, and to then wait for the above signal to be validated.    Moreover, with spot gold prices now trading at such a sensitive price level it may be time to look more closely at both the weekly and monthly charts.

Support   939.16           Resistance  954.28
Support   924.63           Resistance  939.15
Support   907.57           Resistance  923.18

Published on  Fri, Jul 24 2009, 10:36 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 10:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

With Ben Bernanke's two day testimony now complete the markets can begin to absorb his comments, which were broadly in line with expectations, and did nothing to spook equities, commodities, bonds or currency, which will no doubt settle back into the summer lull. The daily gold chart was typical of many others, ending the day with a narrow spread doji candle and closing the trading session marginally higher. Whilst the bullish tone seems to be well established for gold prices at present, we need to be cautious, as in the last three days we have see the price of gold peak during the day at the $954 per ounce level, only to fall back later in the session, leaving a series of upper shadows in a line which are starting to look ominous for two reasons. Firstly this suggests that there is some resistance at the price level to a move higher, and secondly the resistance established at the $955 price level now seems to be a significant barrier to any move higher, so the two technical levels may be combining. If this is repeated today, then this analysis may be reinforced further, and we could see a short term reversal as a result. Only a break and hold above these levels will discount this analysis and leave us with a clear run higher to the elusive $1000 per ounce once again. All three moving averages are providing solid support and with the 9 day about to cross the 14 day average then this adds to the bullish tone at present, but this should be viewed with caution in light of the above analysis.  From a fundamental perspective investment in gold exchange traded funds, gold coins and small bars has slowed in the second quarter according to the World Gold Council's latest Investment Digest.  Traditionally the demand for gold has been as an inflation hedge but with other asset classes such as oil having recently outperformed gold many investors are now turning to the broader commodity sector not only for these better returns but also as their hedge of choice.

Support: 938.20     Resistance : 955.60
Support: 925.30     Resistance : 937.36
Support: 905.46     Reistance : 925.96

Published on  Thu, Jul 23 2009, 10:43 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 09:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's trading in spot gold prices was characterised by indecision and uncertainty, as the broader markets absorbed the comments from FED Chairman Ben Bernanke during the first of his two day testimony on the US economy and proposed fiscal and economic policy moving forward.  As a result the daily gold chart closed with a long legged doji, with closing price closing the session where it opened, and marginally below the $950 dollar per ounce level. From a technical perspective this is not an encouraging sign for gold bulls, as such a candle is often the first signal of a possible reversal in gold prices, and given that we have seen a run up from $905 per ounce to the current level, this may well indicate a short term reversal lower in the short term. However, as always we need to wait and see whether this candle is indeed confirmed in trading today.

With all three moving averages providing good support and with the 9 day now approaching the 40 day, the signs are good, however, as gold traders we cannot ignore such a signal, and the key to its strength will be whether we see a breach of the strong resistance immediatley ahead.  In short, should the $955 per ounce price handle be breached then this should provide a solid platform for a move higher and the doji candle of yesterday can then be discounted.  However, should this resistance prove to be a barrier, then we may well see a reversal lower with the $940 price level acting as support in this case. Today sees phase two of the Ben Bernanke testimony which yesterday took the forex markets by surprise leading to a sudden return to strength for the US Dollar - hence the reversal in spot gold.  In addition there appears to be some speculation that in today's testimony Bernanke will lay out the ground-rules for withdrawing the "proverbial punchbowl" in order to prevent excess at the FED's expense.  In his WSJ article he did outline 5 ways for mopping up excess liquidity in the event of the economy recovering.  His comments today will be designed to allay investors' inflationot necessarily good for gold prices, so all in all another nervous day in prospect for the markets in general, which will no doubt be reflected on the gold chart.  My trading recommendation remains the same, i.e. to stand aside until the fundamental fog has cleared and yesterday's doji candle has either been confirmed or ignored.  In addition given we are only $50 away from the all important, all time high of $1000 per ounce for gold trading will continue to be very challenging.

Support $940.40    Resistance $955.60
Support $929.30    Resistance $939.20
Support $905.30    Resistance $921.70

Published on  Wed, Jul 22 2009, 09:31 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's candle on the spot gold price chart, provides us with several interesting points to consider for our daily analysis of the spot gold market today, and one which may indicate the direction for gold prices in the next few weeks. The first point to note is that the candle finished the trading session with a wide spread up bar, which closed above the 40 day moving average, suggesting that the bullish tone is now firmly established once again, following the short term reversal of June. In addition, the price of gold also broke through the interim resistance level at $940 per ounce, which should now provide a solid platform to attack the $950 resistance area immediately ahead. The bullish tone is further confirmed by the 9 day crossing back above the 14 day moving average once again, so all in all a healthy picture for gold bulls. The only slight cloud on the horizon is the deep upper wick to yesterday's candle which hints at a possible short term reversal, but given the positive factors outlined above, this may well be outweighed today as the bulls take control. However, the $950 to $955 resistance level is key, and should not be under estimated, and if this is breached in the next few days, then we may well see a run back up to re-test the $1000 per ounce level once again. From a fundamental perspective the markets will be listening very carefully to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke today and tomorrow as he testifies before the Senate Banking  Committee in Washington.  The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he will read a prepared statement (a text version of which is available on the Fed's website at the the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session.  Since the questions are not known beforehand the markets will seize on any unguarded or unscripted comments, often resulting in heavy market volatility.   Gold traders will be particularly keen to know the Fed's exit strategy from its current loose monetary policy together with the likely direction of short term interest rates and the fate of the US Dollar, all of which can impact the price of spot gold in the short, medium and longer term.   My trading suggestion for today is to step aside and wait for the markets to digest the statement and subsequent comments.

Support                                     942.30                         Resistance                                 957.20

Support                                    930.60                           Resistance                                941.00

Support                                    920.40                           Resistance                               931.00

Published on  Tue, Jul 21 2009, 10:30 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 12:34 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Friday's candle on the daily gold chart, provided further evidence of indecision and a lack of market direction as traders withdrew from the market ahead of the weekend. With thin trading volume and little in the way of fundamental news, the price of gold drifted for much of the day, ending the session with a classic doji candle, with wicks to top and bottom and the open and closing prices identical. The high of the session seemed to find some resistance from the 40 day moving average, and until we see a breach and hold above this technical indicator, coupled with a clean break above the resistance level in place at the $940 price handle, can we assume that the upwards momentum will continue this week.  Indeed this morning's price action on the gold chart has resulted in a strong upwards move as market players rediscover their appetite for risk as they move out of bonds and the US Dollar.  With spot gold prices having already broken through $950 per ounce $955-$960 beckons and a blast through here could see a a run towards the interim resistance at $980.  However, a word of caution - 75% of companies are still to report and with thin summer volumes gold prices may be more volatile than usual.

The short term is bullish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support:    $932.40 (low of 16/07/09)                                   Resistance: $957.40  (high of 26/05/09)

Support:    $931.45 (low of 17/07/09)                                   Resistance: $956. 02  (high of  21/05/09)

Published on  Mon, Jul 20 2009, 16:32 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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News from the Bombay Bullion Association that India's gold imports had fallen 52% year on year in June to 11.6 tonnes and a fall in jewellery consumption does not seem to have dented investor demand for gold which has seen record inflows as the US Dollar has weakened.  However, gold traders and investors may wish to consider recent comments from Treasury Secretary Geithner when he stated that current US policies were "designed to lay the conditions for a strong dollar" so it remains to be seen if the current correlation will be maintained should the US Dollar regain ground in the medium to longer term as these correlations can and do change over time. From a technical perspective the 40 day moving seems to be proving pivotal for spot gold prices at present, and presented a barrier to any move higher both on Wednesday and Thursday.  Yesterday's candle ended the trading session with a narrow body and with the high of the day failing to penetrate this average once again which could be a signal that the recent reversal in gold prices may be running out of steam.  Coupled with the strong resistance in place at this level, the combination of this with the 40 day moving average may prove to be sufficient to prevent any further rise in the price of spot gold.  With the weekend ahead and very little fundamental news today most gold traders will be squaring their positions and we are therefore likely to see a day of sideways drift in a narrow range.  Overall, gold finished slightly lower  losing $2.27 to settle at $936.50/oz.

The short term and medium term is sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $932.40 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $948.22 (high of 26/06/09)

Support:    $924.05 (low of 15/07/09)                                   Resistance: $946.60 (high of 01/07/09)

Support:    $917.25 (low of 14/07/09)                                   Resistance: $939.90 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:42 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:39 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Price action on the gold chart seems to be swinging in favour of the inflationists as the US dollar continues to weaken in the face of better than expected fundamental data and talk of additional stimulus measures given the fragility of the economic recovery.  For example whilst the US retail sales figures have come in better than expected, once fuel and vehicle sales have been stripped out the numbers are actually down on last month.  From a technical perspective the spot gold price closed the trading session yesterday on a wide spread up bar which powered through the 14 day moving average but failed to breach the 40 day moving average which seemed to provide a degree of resistance to any move higher.  As a result the price of gold finished $13.98 higher to settle at $938.75 per ounce.  The question of course is now whether this is simply a short term squeeze higher or the portent for a longer term rally and yet another assault at the $1000 per ounce price point, and the answer to this will depend on both the technical and fundamental pictures.  Firstly if we start with the fundamental element, the recent rally in gold prices has been fuelled by an improved risk for appetite in equities and consequent decline in the US Dollar.  However, it has to be said that once again equity markets are trading on sentiment following good results in the first tranche of bellwether stocks to release their quarterly earnings, and today sees IBM and Google who are due to release after the closing bell.   Should this sentiment continue then equity markets will follow suit and rally further pushing the US Dollar ever lower as can be seen on the Dollar Index and boosting yet further the spot gold price.  Technically whilst yesterday's up bar was an encouraging sign it is important to note that it failed to breach and hold above the resistance level in place just below the $940 per ounce level and, in addition, as outlined above, the 40 day moving average provided resistance to any move higher.  These two factors combined may suggest we will see some profit taking later today followed by a reversal.  Only a break and hold above the current resistance level, which will then become support, can it said that the rally may continue further with support from all three moving averages.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $924.05 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $948.22 (high of 26/06/09)

Support:    $917.25 (low of 14/07/09)                                   Resistance: $946.60 (high of 01/07/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $942.10 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 16 2009, 10:41 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jul 15 2009, 09:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's trading in spot gold was characterized by a symbiotic relationship between the fundamental news and the technical picture on the gold chart.  A combination of higher than expected PPI data in the US, raising inflationary expectations, coupled with gold prices clinging to the $900 per ounce price handle all helped to lift the price of gold.  From a technical perspective the session ended with a relatively wide spread up bar which broke through the 9 day moving average and closed marginally below the 14 day where spot gold prices found some resistance.  Overall gold prices gained a total of $5.63 to settle at $924.60 per ounce.  The $905 price level seems to have provided a platform for a short term rally and indeed in this morning's early trading spot gold has broken above the 14 day moving average as a follow through to yesterday's bullish tone.  However, we need to be cautious in any trades to the long side as the recent reversal of lower highs and lower lows is still in place, and for any confirmed move higher we will need to see a definitive break and hold above the $940 price level, with all three moving averages providing good support.  Should this occur then we may well see a further rally higher with the next target being a break and hold above the strong resistance created in early June at the $955-$960 price level.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $917.25 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $935.00 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $932.10 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $907.45 (low of 13/07/09)                                   Resistance: $927.70 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 15 2009, 09:39 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jul 14 2009, 09:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's rally in spot gold prices came as result of a mild rebound in equities and a slide in the US Dollar.  With Goldman Sachs expected to show stellar results before today's bell we may yet see further rises in the price of gold.  However, before the gold bulls become too euphoric yesterday's candle was far from emphatic ending the session with a narrow body and deep wicks both to top and bottom indicative of both indecision and short covering.  In addition the high of the day found strong resistance from the 9 day moving average and failed to hold above this technical indicator which gives the gold chart a bearish flavour.  Technically the candle looks weak and as well as the analysis above the price of gold failed to breach the resistance in place in the $920-$925 area suggesting that for any rally to have "legs" we will need to see a break and hold above all three moving averages and the $940 price region.  Overall spot gold prices did manage to move up $6.65 to settle at $918.80 per ounce.   Aside from Goldman Sachs and with the earnings season now getting into full swing we can expect a high level of volatility across all markets.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $907.45 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $932.10 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $926.40 (14 day moving average)

Support:    $889.45 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $923.32 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 14 2009, 09:38 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Although the pendulum is still swinging between the inflationists and deflationists recent data has suggested that the global economy may be facing more of a danger from the latter and this is impacting the price of spot gold which on Friday finished $1.05 down to settle at $912.15 per ounce.  The fall in gold prices was also aided and abetted by a strengthening of the US Dollar.  However, perhaps much more important is that this week sees the start of the US earning season when every quarter US giants such as Microsoft and Apply release their latest figures which can result in huge swings and volatility across all markets as fear once again stalks the financial world.  In addition there was a rumour in the US that a second massive stimulus package would be required to further prop up and stabilize the fragile economy.   From a technical perspective Friday's candle provided us with little in the way of a significant pattern, other than the price of gold seemed to find some support during the trading session closing the day marginally lower but with a deep lower wick.  With all three moving averages weighing heavily at present the tone remains extremely bearish, and the only positive that we can take from the gold chart for the last three days is that the low of each day has found some support in the $905 price region.  Spot gold prices remain firmly entrenched deep in the consolidation area of the past few months and a break and hold above $950 per ounce or below $870 per ounce could prove a defining position.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $906.65 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $932.10 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $925.65 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $889.45 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $915.30 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 13 2009, 10:57 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's modest rebound in the price of spot gold was not entirely unexpected given the extent of Wednesday's sell off.  However, despite some support from a weaker US dollar it was the continuing fall in crude oil prices which appeared to hamper any serious rally in the price of gold.   Overall spot gold gained $5.95 to settle at $913.60 per ounce on the gold chart.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed the session with a deep upper wick relative to the body of the candle, suggesting that yesterday's rally was somewhat muted and that the gold bears are still firmly in control.  With the 9 day average now crossing below the 14 day and with all three now turning lower the bearish picture is reinforced by these technical indicators.  Today is not a day for trading in gold, partly due to the conclusion of the G8 meeting in Italy, and partly due to the weekend ahead with traders squaring positions and with relatively little news on the economic calendar, as everyone is off to enjoy their summer holidays.  The key support level for the current downwards trend is just below the $900 price handle, and should this capitulate then a deeper move may ensue, possibly as far as a retest of the $865 per ounce price level, last seen back on the 20th April 2009.   Next week I propose to consider both the weekly and monthly charts in order to look at the longer term view for spot gold prices.   In the meantime have a great weekend.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $905.60 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $932.10 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $925.65 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $889.45 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.70 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:23 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Yesterday's price action on the gold chart was extraordinary for spot gold prices which managed to lose $15.42 to close just above the $900.00 per ounce price point on a day when markets were essentially drifting owing to a lack of any hard news and with no appreciable strengthening of the US Dollar.  The current market torpor is partly attributed to the lack of Chinese involvement in the G8 summit, which has removed the US Dollar discussion from the agenda where it was originally thought to be a high priority.  It is therefore somewhat surprising to see such a significant move in the price of spot gold.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle merely confirmed the bearish picture outlined in yesterday's market commentary where Tuesday's candle found the 9 and 14 day moving averages an impenetrable barrier, and therefore yesterday's wide spread down bar came as no great surprise although the depth of the move was unusual.  The close of the day finished deep into the strong support area between $900 and $920 and with such a congested price zone it will now take some considerable momentum for the price of gold to break higher.   With all three moving averages now turning lower and with the congestion now significant trading opportunities should be biased to the short side with any reversal higher seen as an entry opportunity to trade.  My suggestion is therefore to look for entry positions in the hourly chart and any stop loss should be set wide and certainly above the previous resistance at the $940 price point, or higher.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $904.70 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $941.10 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                  Resistance: $932.10 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $889.45 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $925.65 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 9 2009, 08:43 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

With any discussion concerning the reserve of the US Dollar now off the agenda at this week's G8, as China's Hu Jintao has had to return home to deal with the civil unrest in Xinjiang, the Dollar managed to gain a little traction, limiting the fall in spot gold prices to $2.95 and settling at $922.95.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle was indicative of a choppy trading session ending the day as a down bar but with a deep upper shadow.  The most significant aspect of yesterday's bar was the high of the day which as for Monday found strong resistance from both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, and with the 9 day now once again re-crossing the 14 this is adding to the bearish picture.  As gold prices fall once again in early trading this morning, the key to any reversal higher will be whether technically the price of gold is able to find support initially around the $910 per ounce area, followed by that at $900 per ounce but if both these fail we could see a much deeper move to re-test spot gold prices at the $865 per ounce. It is interesting to note that the speed of decline in gold prices is relatively slow when compared with spot silver, which is often the case in a bearish market.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $920.95 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                    Resistance: $941.10 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $932.10 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:43 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices fell yesterday amid general commodity weakness and a rebound in the US Dollar, losing a total $6.30 to settle at $925.85 per ounce.   In addition gold prices may also have been dealt a temporary blow by the Indian Government's decision to increase the import duty on gold and silver bullion which some analysts are speculating may kill off any residual demand for these metals in the short term.  As the world's largest consumer of gold, importing nearly 800 tonnes a year, or 20% of global demand, India has recently seen a fall of almost 60% in the first six months to June compared with last year.  This fall has been due to a combination of higher prices and the economic downturn.  In an effort to lessen the impact of the increase in duty the Indian Government has cut the excise duty on branded jewellery to zero.   However, the Indian jewellery market too has been suffering with demand shrinking 9% to 469.7 tonnes in 2008 and the decline accelerating this year where demand in the first quarter of 2009 dropped 52% year on year to 34.7 tonnes, the lowest level for 20 years.  The affect of this crucial fundamental data on the gold chart will be interesting as technically, whilst the picture remains mildly bearish, gold prices do seem to be finding some support at current price levels.  Yesterday's candle was indicative ending the gold trading session down overall, but with a deep shadow to the bottom of the candle suggesting a mildly bullish pick up in later trading.  While gold prices remain below all three moving averages the bearish flavour remains, however, the intermediate support level at $920 now seems to be providing a platform for a possible move higher, but should this be breached then we could see a much deeper move, possibly to re-test the psychological $900 per ounce price point once again.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $920.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                    Resistance: $941.10 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $932.60 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:24 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jul 6 2009, 10:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

With the US markets closed on Friday for the 4th of July celebrations spot gold prices were completely moribund hardly moving out of a very narrow trading range.  The question now facing traders and investors is how the markets are likely to unfold in the second half of 2009.  Market players appear divided as to whether the next 6 months will be characterized by further deflation or whether the first sparks of inflation will begin to take hold, and the clues as to which is likely to be more dominant lies in both gold prices and the performance of the US Dollar.   From a technical perspective Friday's doji candle closed below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages suggesting once again that despite the holiday on Friday the tone for gold prices is looking bearish, and now seems to be more aligned with spot silver in this respect.  Indeed in this morning's early trading, and following moves back in the safe haven status of the US dollar as a result of the truly awful NFP figures, risk aversion appears to be the order of the day with the price of gold falling as a consequence.   The technical key to how deep this move will be will largely depend on the strength of any support levels of which the $900 per ounce price point is the first.  Should gold prices breach this price level then we may even be looking at a much deeper move, possibly as far as the $850 to $870 price point.   With this week's G8 summit likely to cause a degree of market mayhem and the likes of Jean Claude Trichet "talking up" the dollar should the dollar continue to strengthen then this will offer us a number of trades to the short side.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $929.35 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                  Resistance: $941.10 (high of 02/07/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $934.32 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 6 2009, 10:50 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:01 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Private investor appetite for gold shows little sign of abating with one private bullion dealer reporting holdings of physical gold jumping more than 40% in the first half of 2009 alone.   The reason?  Deep scepticism that the quantitative easing measures are not producing a self sustaining recovery and will, in the end, lead to massive inflation.  Despite this spot gold prices actually finished lower yesterday for a variety of reasons: first July is traditionally a very quiet month for gold trading.  Second some profit taking ahead of the 4th of July celebrations.  Third a reaction to a rebound in the US Dollar following worse than expected NFP data which confirmed that the labour market is still under severe pressure and unlikely to trouble the economy with any serious inflation.   As a consequence spot gold prices ended the day $9.26 down to finish at $931.49 per ounce.   Technically the price of gold has managed to hold above last month's low by considerable distance, so despite yesterday's down-bar and weak fundamentals the longer term picture still looks favourable with gold prices holding well above both the 9 and 14 month moving averages.  To return to the daily gold chart whilst yesterday's down bar came as no great surprise following the release of the NFP data it is encouraging to note for gold bulls that the close of the day found support from the 9 and 40 day moving averages and failed to fall as far as might have been expected.  With the moving averages now bunching and the market closed today it is unlikely we will see anything other than a sideways day and we must now wait until early next week for a clue as to the short direction for gold.  Only a break and hold above the strong resistance now in place in the $940 per ounce region can be considered a positive signal whilst the $920 to $925 support level is key to preventing a deeper fall.  Have a great weekend and a Happy 4th of July.

The short and medium terms are medium while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $926.20 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                  Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $941.10 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:02 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:14 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Once again spot gold prices moved in tandem with the US Dollar which came under pressure following release of the ADP numbers which showed the private sector had shed 473k jobs against a forecast of 388k.  Reports that China wants the G8 to discuss a new global currency also boosted the price of gold which is, of course, the world's supreme hard asset.  Interestingly spot gold carried on rising even as crude oil prices fell.  Overall gold ended the session $11.67 higher at $940.87 per ounce.  Technically the gold chart continues to remain in a delicate position with yesterday's candle closing above the 9 and 14 day moving averages and reversing Tuesday's losses in an engulfing pattern.  However, given the general lack of direction and today's likely volatility we may see further confused and conflicting trading signals on the gold chart.  My trading suggestion is to step aside for today and tomorrow and wait for a firm trend to be established once again which is clearly not the case at present.

The short and medium term is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $927.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                  Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $946.60 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:15 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jul 1 2009, 08:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Our warning of extreme caution in yesterday's market commentary for spot gold prices did indeed come to pass and was reflected in an extremely volatile trading day on the daily gold chart.  A combination of a mild rebound in the US Dollar as hedge funds and financial institutions liquidated their end of quarter positions as well as investor indecision all contributed to this volatile mix.  Yesterday's candle finished the session with a deep down body and wicks to both top and bottom and spread over a price range from the high of $945 to the low of $924 thereby reflecting the current instability in the gold market at present.  With the close of the day finishing below all three moving averages this suggests that the bearish sentiment has taken precedence, and should the 40 day moving average begin to turn then this will add further downward pressure.  However, before the gold bulls become too despondent it is interesting to note that the close of yesterday at $928.85 per ounce did find some support at this price level as any deeper move lower will first have to penetrate the strong support in place at $915 to $925.  My trading suggestion is wait until the end of this week, and in particular for the collision between the ECB and NFP fundamental news tomorrow which may well dictate the short to medium direction for equities, currencies and commodities.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $922.60 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $917.85 (low of 22/06/09)                                  Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $944.90 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jul 1 2009, 08:38 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jun 30 2009, 09:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Spot gold prices moved in tandem with the US Dollar yesterday, moving lower in early trading as the Dollar strengthened but then recovering as the dollar rally ran out of steam.  As a result gold finished 70 cents higher at $939.00 per ounce.  However, the price of gold is at an interesting tipping point as investors seem unclear whether to continue to buy gold as a safe haven or look for undervalued stocks, hence the importance of keeping a close eye on the equity markets during this next quarter.  Of course, if the US Dollar continues to weaken then gold prices should benefit accordingly and depending on the extent to which the Dollar weakens may once again bring into question the status of the Dollar and a call for a return to a version of the "gold standard".   Meanwhile in the virtual world of online gaming (such as World of Warcraft) the use of "virtual gold" is used by players in less developed countries to play against gamers in the developed world.   The practice is known as "gold farming" and the trading of virtual currency for real cash generates between $200 million and $1 billion annually, according to a 2008 survey conducted by Richard Heeks at the University of Manchester.  However, the Chinese Government has just announced new rules which bans the conversion of this virtual gold into real money declaring that it can only be traded for virtual goods and services - not real goods and services.   Who says virtual games can't teach those of us in the "real" world something of value.

Meanwhile to return to the gold chart, from a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the day as a doji with shadows to top and bottom and the body neatly sandwiched between the 14 day and the 40 day moving averages, which once again confirmed the delicate position for gold prices at present.  With Friday's bearish indicator and yesterday's indecision the price of gold is indeed finely balanced, and for gold bulls the principal point to note is that on both these days spot gold prices have found support at the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  However, this is counterbalanced by the 40 day moving average having crossed above both the 9 and 14 suggesting a possible bearish reversal so extreme caution is required at present. The catalyst may come towards the end of this shortened trading week with ADP figures on Wednesday and NFP on Thursday providing the drivers for equity markets which will no doubt influence the broader commodities and precious metal markets.

The short and medium term trends are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $933.50 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $929.25 (low of 25/06/09)                                  Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                   Resistance: $942.75 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 30 2009, 09:07 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 09:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

The sideways drift in spot gold prices is primarily the result of a fall in the demand for physical gold although spot gold prices did receive a small boost on Friday following further comments from the PBOC (People's Bank of China) once again questioning the status of the US Dollar as the world's reserve currency and suggesting that gold could be a better alternative.   Spot gold eventually ended the day $1.05 down to settle at $938.05 per ounce as traders squared their positions ahead of the weekend.   From a technical perspective Friday's candle failed to follow through on the bullish tone of earlier in the week and whilst momentum was positive in the morning session, the bears took control later in the day with the candle closing as a bearish hammer pattern with a deep upper wick.   With all three moving averages bunching together in a relatively tight trading range it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusions from these technical indicators, and the only point of note is that the close of the day found some support from the 14 day moving average which has now crossed below the 9 day once again.  With a such a bearish signal on the daily gold chart we may well see a short term reversal in the price of spot gold as Friday's failed attempt to break the $945 resistance would suggest a move lower in the next day or so.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $935.80 (Friday’s low)                        Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $929.25 (low of 25/06/09)                  Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                  Resistance: $948.22 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 29 2009, 09:44 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices had a good day yesterday gaining $6.80 to finish at $939.15 per ounce despite a neutral US dollar and more as a result of the somewhat anodyne statement from the FED and comments from a Chinese official suggesting that China would consider buying more gold in the event of further US Dollar weakness.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up bar added to the bullish tone following the hammer signal of Tuesday closing the day marginally below the 14 day moving average and fractionally above the 40 day moving average which are now crossing.  In addition yesterday's gold price found support from the 9 day moving average which is beginning to turn higher elements which are all adding to the gently bullish trend which is now forming.  This mood has continued in early trading this morning with a push higher once again with gold prices once again well above all three moving averages suggesting that the reversal from early June may now have petered out.  The key for today, and moving forward, will be the strong resistance which is now in place at the $952 per ounce level and above and should we see this region breached then we could be in a position to see a re-test of the highs of late May in the $980 - $990 price levels once again.  Intra day progress on the gold chart is relatively slow and my trading suggestion for today (bearing in mind the weekend) is to attempt small longs with tight stops, aiming for small profits targets, using the 15 min chart.

The short term trend is mildly bullish, medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $929.25 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                  Resistance: $943.15 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $904.65 (low of 08/05/09)                                   Resistance: $940.27 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 26 2009, 09:36 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:00 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The correlation between a weak US Dollar and rising gold prices appears to have been ignored yesterday as spot gold prices moved higher gaining $7.72 to finish at $932.62 per ounce in the face of Dollar strength following the FOMC meeting.   The FOMC statement and decision to keep rates on hold was more of an anti-climax than many had been predicting with the only change from April's statement being the removal of any reference to deflation.  Whether this would have had any influence on the price of gold is debatable, much more likely is the growing realisation that the gold market is facing a problem of supply in the face of rising demand.  Here is a link to a very interesting interview with Evy Hambro manager of the £2bn Blackrock Gold and General Fund who explains why spot gold prices will once again reach $1000 per ounce.   From a technical perspective we now have to keep several inter-related, but contradictory factors in mind in our analysis of the gold chart over the next few months.  In particular we could be facing the apparent break in the correlation between gold and a weak Dollar and, to a lesser extent, between gold and silver which also appears to have changed subtly as a result.  This was something I alluded to in an earlier commentary where the candle on the gold chart was mildly bullish whilst the candle on the silver chart gave us no clear signal.

So what of yesterday's candle?  Firstly, gold prices closed sharply higher, responding positively to the hammer signal of the previous day and before the gold bulls become overly optimistic I would like to highlight two cautionary signals.  The first of these is the fact that the candle closed the session with a deep upper weak and second that the high of the day failed to penetrate both the 14 day moving average which seems to be acting as a barrier along with resistance at the $940 price level.  To add to this cautionary picture I would also point out that the 14 and 40 may be about to cross and that the close of yesterday failed to breach the 9 day moving average, which again seemed to act as a barrier.  In the longer term my view is that gold prices will once again move higher to re-test the $980 price region in due course and ultimately move back above the four figure level, but in the short term and certainly for inter day trading the various changes in correlation and sentiment outlined above may make gold trading tricky at present.

The short and medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $921.65 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $958.20 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $912.70 (low of 23/06/09)                                  Resistance: $943.15 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $904.65 (low of 08/05/09)                                   Resistance: $941.30 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:01 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jun 24 2009, 08:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Despite some bearish fundamentals which are beginning to suggest some liquidations in gold backed exchange traded funds it was, in fact, a weaker dollar and a rise in crude oil prices which stemmed the fall in spot gold prices.  Spot gold initially fell in early trading to a six week low but recovered to gain $3.12 to settle at $924.80 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle provided us with a classic reversal signal, namely a hammer which we now need to wait for a confirming signal which will no doubt following today's FOMC statement.  Whilst the technical picture remains bearish, with the 9 day moving average crossing the 40 day, the macroeconomic picture is having more of an effect on gold prices than the technical at the moment, and in particular the FOMC statement later today will dictate the short term direction for the US Dollar and, hence, the price of spot gold.  The statement is widely expected to be Dollar negative which in turn should send gold and silver prices higher as a result and from a technical perspective this should confirm yesterday's hammer signal.  Indeed should the statement as negative as some expect we may well see a break above all three moving averages later today coupled with a breach of the resistance now in place at the $940 per ounce price point.  If this set up occurs then this may well signal a return to the longer term bullish trend in gold prices which we expect to resume in due course.  The Dollar negative sentiment has also been pushed along by the ECB with comments from various members "talking up" the Euro.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $912.70 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $939.10 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $904.65 (low of 08/05/09)                                  Resistance: $935.00 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $926.99 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 24 2009, 09:00 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:02 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold experienced a sharp decline yesterday as the commodity market (along with others) was hit by a wave of profit taking and some return of Dollar strength.   In addition with physical gold demand remaining weak and specialist gold backed exchange traded funds not recording any fresh inflows this current pullback may have some way to go.  Spot gold prices fell $12.20 to settle at $923.15.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread candle confirmed that the catalyst we have been waiting for has been ignited with the low of the day finishing well below the 40 day moving average and closing marginally above the support level in the $920 price region.  To add to the bearish picture the 9 day has now crossed the 40 day and the 14 day average may well follow suit shortly.   Whilst the longer term picture remains bullish in the short term the depth of this reversal will depend on where gold prices find their cushion and initially this could be back at the pivotal $900 per ounce or even back towards $882 last seen in early May.   The key to any reversal in the spot gold prices is the US Dollar and whether investors perceive the Dollar or gold as the better vehicle to hedge against economic or geopolitical risk and herein lies the apparent contradiction that we are seeing at present.  If we look at the Dollar index chart there is nothing to suggest from yesterday's candle that spot gold (or indeed other commodities) should have fallen so heavily and if the correlation were correct we should have seen a consequent wide spread up bar on the index, which is clearly not the case.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $917.85 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                  Resistance: $939.10 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $935.00 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 23 2009, 09:03 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jun 22 2009, 08:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices continued to consolidate sideways in the face of a complete lack of fundamental news in tandem with all other markets as gold traders wait for the catalyst which many believe will be forthcoming this week sparking a considerable degree of volatility and a possible sustained change in trading sentiment and risk appetite.   What the trigger will be has yet to be determined, however, the most likely events are the FMOC meeting, US GDP figures and the US Treasury Bond Auctions.  If the Fed decides to buy more US Treasury Securities this in turn could hurt the dollar and by default favour spot gold prices.   In addition, with the growing uncertainty in the equities markets which many now believe have risen on over optimistic sentiment rather than factual, fundamental news, this too could well favour a strong bull move for gold prices in the short term and we may well see a further attempt the $1000 per ounce mark in due course.

The short term trend is sideways, medium and long term bullish.

Support:    $931.90 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                    Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $939.10 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 22 2009, 08:54 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jun 19 2009, 09:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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With spot gold prices currently in consolidation mode it is sometimes useful to remember that there are seasonal and cultural factors which can affect the spot gold price, factors which we have to take into account when analysing the gold chart.  Historical data suggests that from 1999 to 2008, returns of gold from the periods of August to January were better than that from February to July in 8 out of the 10 years and since 1979 this correlation has occurred 18 times in total.  Part of the reason for higher demand during this period has been cultural, with India leading the way as the biggest consumers of gold in the world (for weddings and festivals), although latterly they have been joined by the Chinese and the explosive growth of gold backed Exchange Traded Funds.   However, this year's figures for India show that imports of gold in the first 5 months of 2009 stood at 39.6 metric tons, a decline of around one third for the same period last year, and in February and March India recorded zero imports.  Reasons for such a fall in demand have been given as the rise in the cost of spot gold coupled with a weakening of the Indian Rupee.   From a technical perspective the 40 day moving average continues to provide some buoyancy to spot gold prices which are now perched precariously on the lowest of our three moving averages, presenting a rather fragile picture.  With all three averages now beginning to bunch the technical picture is decidedly unclear and any small change in an associated market such as currency or equities will be enough to tip gold prices over the edge, with the $920 to $925 region then providing the first line of defence to any move lower.  For spot gold prices to move we would need to see a sustained break and hold above the $957 price point coupled with support from all three moving averages.  Given that we have the unusual "triple witching" today with expiry of options across all markets my trading suggestion is to stay out, particularly as we are now approaching the weekend with squaring positions and everyone waiting to see which way markets are going to jump.  Spot gold lost $7.62 in yesterday's gold trading session ending the day at $934 per ounce.

The short term and medium trend is sideways, long term is bullish.

Support:    $929.74 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                    Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $941.50 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 19 2009, 09:13 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jun 18 2009, 09:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The most important aspect of yesterday's candle on the daily gold chart was the support provided by the 40 day moving average which seems to provide an encouraging signal that the recent reversal in spot gold prices may have found a springboard from which to leverage higher once again.  Whilst these are very early days and we should not become too optimistic, it is nevertheless an encouraging sign, and one that seems to have been replicated in the last 3 days.  Yesterday's up bar was boosted by a weaker dollar and a recovery in crude oil prices which resulted in spot gold finishing $6.93 higher to close at $940.80 per ounce.  The key to any sustained upward move will be a breach of the strong resistance now in place in the $956 level but should we see this broken, coupled with a move above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages then this should provide us with a modicum of comfort as we look to trade the long side once again.   From a fundamental perspective spot gold may also benefit from any renewed fears in both the equity markets and banking systems which are still in a somewhat nervous and fragile state.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $927.58 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                    Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $943.15 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 18 2009, 09:25 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:02 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Despite a mixed and, at times even contradictory, fundamental picture yesterday of a weaker US dollar, stronger crude oil prices yet better than expected US housing data, spot gold prices ended the day $3.65 higher to settle at $934.00 per ounce, as investor attitude to risk and inflation is played out in the gold chart.   From a technical perspective spot gold, like many other commodities and currencies, is at a tipping point at present, largely as a result of the US dollar's delicate position on the Dollar Index coupled with the continued surge in crude oil prices.Yesterday's candle was indicative of this sensitive picture closing the day marginally below the 40 day moving average but slightly up overall.  As outlined in yesterday's market commentary the key to the medium term for the price of gold will be whether the 40 day moving average continues to provide a barrier to a deeper move as evidenced in the last two days.  Should this fail to hold then we may well see a much deeper move initially to the $922 price region and possibly even further to re-test support in the $905 price point and above.   For the gold bulls we need to see a break above the strong resistance now in place at the $958 price region coupled with a breach and hold above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages which are now suggesting a short term bearish picture having crossed in the last few days.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $928.70 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                    Resistance: $940.61 (high of 20/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $939.70 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:04 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's wide spread downbar in the spot gold chart merely reflected the market's view of the US dollar, which found some support following positive statements from various G8 ministers who reinforced theirs view of the US dollar as a reserve currency.  In addition markets reacted nervously to possible problems in the German banking system and as a consequence there was a negative sentiment towards the Euro.  Also yesterday's trading across all markets was characterized by a total lack of fundamental news which tends to increase price volatility and randomness.  Spot gold fell a total of $7.23 to settle at $930.57 per ounce.  From a technical perspective whilst yesterday's down bar continued Friday's bearish tone, the key element on the gold chart is the deep lower wick and the fact that the close of the day seems to have found support on the 40 day moving average.  This was one of the points I highlighted yesterday which could be significant should we now see the short term reversal halted and the spot gold price bounce back.  Indeed in this morning's early trading we have already seen the opening price once again supported by the 40 day moving average with the price of gold currently $7 up on the day and reversing yesterday's losses.  The salient point will be whether this average continues to provide support in this way but should it fail then we could see a deep pullback, possibly as low as the $920 price region where further support awaits.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $925.25 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $956.02 (high of 21/05/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                  Resistance: $940.61 (high of 20/05/09)

Support:    $914.93 (low of 18/05/09)                                   Resistance: $938.90 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:21 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:06 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Last week's price action in spot gold prices reflected the indecision across all markets as investors begin to realise that the road to recovery is likely to be much longer and slower than originally anticipated.  In addition the fear that inflation will return as a result of the all the extra money that has been pumped into economies is driving gold sales, either directly in the form of coins and gold bars or indirectly into various investment vehicles such as exchange traded funds.   Indeed according to the World Gold Council, retail investors around the world bought 131 tonnes of gold in the first three months of this year, an increase of 33%.   From a technical perspective Friday's price action finally gave us a meaningful signal, following the 4 days of sideways movement characterized by doji candles, and ended the day with a wide spread down bar closing the session $18.75 lower at $938 per ounce.   This bearish candle has finally confirmed the two bearish engulfing signals we saw in the prior week's trading confirming that this reversal is now significant, and indeed this picture is re-inforced by the crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  Friday's price high also failed to penetrate the 9 day moving average which is now adding further pressure to the downward move which has continued in early trading this morning.  There are several key points that we now need to consider carefully over the next few days, the first of which will be whether the 40 day moving average provides any degree of support, and also whether gold prices find any technical support levels in the $930 per ounce price region and any failure to hold here could see a deeper move to $920 or below.  The broader question, of course, is whether we have now seen another failed attempt to break the $1000 per ounce price point and how quickly we may see another attempt at this level.

The short term is bearish, medium term is sideways, long term is bullish.

Support:    $935.95 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $980.17 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                  Resistance: $961.87 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $919.95 (low of 14/05/09)                                   Resistance: $958.20 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:35 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The question today for spot gold prices is whether we are going to see yet another long legged doji on the daily gold chart to make it five in a row, and a full house on the week.  Having initially moved lower in early trading following a higher US dollar after retail sales came in marginally below expectations spot gold prices remained uncertain as to which direction to take once again.  A weakening of the US dollar in later trading did manage to see spot gold prices move back into positive territory where they settled $3.33 higher at $956.85 per ounce.  From a technical perspective there is little we can glean from an analysis of the daily gold chart other than the obvious fact that gold prices are in a period of consolidation within a very tight range, and the only items of note are as follows: first that the 9 day moving average is about to cross the 14 day moving average which may suggest a bearish tone, and second that the close of each day this week has finished below the 14 day moving average.   This view may be counterbalanced to some degree by the fact that despite the two significant bearish signals of last week, the price of gold has failed to follow through in any meaningful way, which in itself could be an important indication that the market has discounted these earlier signals.  My trading suggestion for today is to step aside from the market for two reasons, firstly as traders will be squaring positions ahead of the weekend, and secondly all markets, including commodities and forex, are waiting for any signals from this weekend's round of G8 meetings which are taking place in Italy.  Hopefully by Monday we will have a clearer picture for the future direction of gold prices.  A quick check on the weekly chart fails to provide us with any further clues other than the gold price is well above all three moving averages and, as in the daily chart, has failed to follow through on the bearish signal here as well.

The short term sideways while the medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $942.45 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $989.95 (high of 03/05/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $980.17 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                   Resistance: $961.87 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:15 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jun 11 2009, 09:06 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The high correlation between spot gold prices and the US dollar continues to be mirrored in the gold chart with spot gold falling as the dollar strengths but rising whenever the dollar weakens.    In addition spot gold also appears to be suffering from a bout of profit taking as "stale longs" are liquidated as investors wait on the fate of the US dollar.  As a consequence spot gold prices fell yesterday $2.90 having at one point reached an inter day high of $958.08.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle mirrored that of Tuesday ending the session as a long legged doji once again indicative of indecision in the market and general consolidation in the $940 to $980 region.   As outlined in yesterday's market commentary, despite the fact that we had two bearish signals last week, once again, these have failed to be confirmed by the price action.   For various reasons, the market seems disinclined to follow through on these signals at present, and instead is finding supporting in the $950 to $955 prices region which may provide the springboard to any move higher in due course, despite the fact that the daily close of the last four days has been below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages which are now converging.  We now need to wait for any sustained move from this current trading range which may well prove to be to the long side, but until this is confirmed I would advocate a cautious approach in the short term.

The short term is sideways while the medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $946.63 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $989.95 (high of 03/05/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $980.17 (high of 29/05/09)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                   Resistance: $965.40 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 11 2009, 09:07 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jun 10 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's modest recovery in the spot gold price, was primarily as a result of a re-emergence of dollar weakness and the price of gold ended the day $1.95 higher to settle at $955.75 per ounce.  Technically we are now approaching a delicate and potentially complex point in the daily gold chart for a number of reasons which I will try to explain as follows.  First in the last 6 days we have had two bearish engulfing signals, the first of which was on Wednesday, last week, followed by a second on Friday which was triggered by the NFP employment data and a temporary return of dollar strength to the market, with the closing price of that day finishing below both the 9 and 14 moving averages.  This Monday's candle then produced a "hammer" candle which, whilst not indicative of a reversal, certainly suggests that the selling pressure in spot gold prices was absorbed by the market with a return of the bulls.  Yesterday's candle on the gold chart provided a long legged doji which is generally considered a sign of indecision and therefore indicating a possible turning point, so the question, of course, is which direction can we expect the price of gold to take?  In order to answer this question we need to consider some of the broader aspects of the gold chart, which includes the fact that prices are still below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, but this is counterbalanced by the fact that gold prices on both Monday and Tuesday found support at the $955 per ounce price point.   Given the above analysis, and bearing in mind that we have some conflicting signals at present, my feeling is that on balance I expect gold prices to move higher once again in the short term, not least because we seem to have found some support at the price point outlined above. In addition if we look at the dollar index, which provides a view on the future strength or weakness of the dollar, this looks decidedly bearish once again in the short term.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $946.80 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $982.80 (high of 04/05/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $966.90 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                   Resistance: $961.80 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 10 2009, 08:59 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:06 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices remained on the defensive for a second trading day, which was characterized by a stronger dollar, sharp declines in the equity markets, general risk aversion and a downgrade to Ireland's credit rating to double AA, with a negative outlook, from double AA plus.  This is the second cut in three months and comes amid worries over the cost of bailing out the Irish banking sector.  The initial fall in the gold chart triggered sell orders whose momentum was also boosted on news of a small reduction of the amount of physical gold held by Exchange Traded Funds.  Overall spot gold did manage to mitigate some losses in late trading and settled $1.47 lower at $953.83 per ounce.

From a technical perspective yesterday has left us with an interesting candle, which closed the day below both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, but with a deep lower wick and narrow body, very typical of a 'hammer' candle. Clearly in this case we are not at the bottom of a steep reversal, however, such candles often indicate that the selling pressure has been absorbed, and that the bulls are once again coming back into the market. It is interesting to note that the low of the day at $945  is at the same level of two weeks ago, where once again spot gold prices found solid support, bouncing off the 9 day moving average before continuing higher. Whilst I would exercise caution, this is a positive sign, and from the early price action for gold prices this morning, this pattern seems to have been repeated once again. My suggestion for today is to wait for the close, and should we see a similar candle formed on the day, then this could confirm yesterday's candle and indicate that we should see a move higher in due course.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $942.85 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $982.80 (high of 04/05/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $966.24 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                   Resistance: $959.70 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:07 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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A strong rebound in the US dollar and much better than expected NFP data have been cited as reasons for the sharp fall in the spot price of gold as investor appetite for safe haven assets appeared to falter.   Whilst it is certainly true that the fall in the unemployment data exceeded all market expectation inflation fears are still a reality and the only conclusion we can draw is that markets will be volatile for some time to come and spot gold's journey towards the $1000 per ounce price point will be a very bumpy ride.   Following the employment numbers,  spot gold lost $23.21 per ounce on the day, closing the day with  a wide spread down bar which closed below both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages.

As it is the start of a new trading week, and given Friday's volatile price action across many currency and commodity markets, I thought it would be useful to take a look at the weekly chart for gold prices, in order to provide a different perspective in Friday's big price move, as we can sometimes forget that in looking at the daily chart, there is a bigger picture which we need to keep in mind when trading longer term trends. The first, and perhaps most obvious point is that the $1000 per ounce price region seems to be a defining area, with three failed attempts previously, and with a possible fourth now in progress, so clearly a breach of this level is now taking on an increasing significance for the longer term, rather than simply being a psychological barrier. This price chart has many similarities to the USD/CAD currency pair where we saw several failed attempts at 1.3000 before seeing a steep and dramatic fall. Whilst I am not suggesting we will see the same occur in gold prices, it does indicate the strength of these price points particularly when associated with failed attempts to breach them and then to hold above.  The second point to note is that after four weeks of strong gains it is hardly surprising to see a short term reversal in the price of gold, with the weekly candle finishing as a down bar, and with a deep upper wick, suggesting that we could see further falls this week. The positive side of the weekly chart is of course that we have some way to go before prices break through and/or below the 9 week and 14 week moving averages - if this does occur then we could see a deeper move, possibly as far as $925-$930 to re-test the support at this level.

In summary, whilst Friday's fall was a shock to the system, in the context of the weekly chart it was no great surprise, and we therefore need to keep this in mind when trend trading for the longer term. With the fundamental data now starting to indicate a possible slowing of the recession, then in my view we are likely to see further days of extreme volatility over the next few months as fundamental news is released which confirms this picture. Indeed many analysts have some difficulty in explaining the surge in gold prices recently, against the backdrop of a return to risk appetite In my view at any rate there is only one answer and it is simply this - that fears of deflation, have now given way to the fear of a dangerous snap back in inflation as the economy recovers, catching everyone unawares, so as I said earlier, we could be in for a rough ride trading gold in the next few months!

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $952.44 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $982.80 (high of 04/05/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $967.82 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $940.60 (low of 26/05/09)                                   Resistance: $962.42 (14 day moving average)

Published on  Mon, Jun 8 2009, 09:13 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, Jun 5 2009, 07:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The spot gold price resumed its upwards trend, recouping much of the previous day's losses as investors re-entered the market on speculation that gold is moving back towards the $1000 level and that the commodity market offers a degree of certainty currently absent from other assets.   A sell off in the US dollar in reaction to the the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates also boosted the price of gold which closed $13.46 higher to settle at $978.10 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar, virtually regained all the losses of Wednesday, and as I suggested in my market commentary yesterday, we must always wait for any signal to be confirmed before trading on the result. In this case the bearish reversal signal seems to have been ignored, and the 9 day moving average has once again provided the support to prevent further falls, both on  Wednesday and Thursday, suggesting that the trend has remained intact, and we should now see a push above the $1000 per ounce in due course. With the bullish signal from the moving averages and the market's failure to confirm the bearish signal on the daily gold chart, we can now look to build further longer term positions as gold prices move higher once again.

The short and long term trends are bullish while medium term trend is sideways.

Support:    $960.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $1000.00 (psychological level)

Support:    $958.35 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $995.65 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $982.80 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 5 2009, 07:42 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Jun 4 2009, 07:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Gold's march towards $1000 per ounce was halted yesterday by a strong rebound in the US Dollar as investors and 95% of financial professionals thinking that the recent strong equity market rally is now coming to an end.   Evidence of this can also be seen in His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan selling all 1.3bn of his Barclay's shares, clearly a sign that the rally in financial stocks has come to an end and a signal for some serious profit taking.   Despite yesterday's fall on the gold chart, spot gold is still up 12% this year.  From a technical perspective although the spot gold price did manage an inter day high of $989.95, before ending the day $18.32 lower to close at $964.50 per ounce, selling in  the latter part of the gold trading session included a degree of profit taking and technical factors as stops were triggered.

The wide spread down bar created as a result could be an early warning signal for us that the current rally is coming to an end with the bearish engulfing candle of yesterday, but as always we need to wait for this to be confirmed in the next few days. It is interesting to note, however, that the low of the day bounced off the 9 day moving average, suggesting perhaps that this may only be a temporary reversal following the strong move of the last few weeks. When prices react in this way, and the moving averages provide support, this can often be a signal that the rally has further to go, and is often considered an excellent signal that the reversal is simply the rally stopping for breath, before moving higher once again. However we need to be cautious in our gold trading in the next few days as we wait for any confirming signals, and with  NFP around the corner tomorrow, this may be a good time to wait on the sidelines for the next day or so, to see whether this bearish signal is true or false.

Support:    $960.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $1000.00 (psychological level)

Support:    $958.35 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $995.65 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $989.95 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Jun 4 2009, 07:56 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, Jun 3 2009, 08:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday was an interesting day for the price of gold, once again reinforcing the feeling that we are about to see a move towards the $1000 per ounce level as the bullish momentum continues to push gold prices higher. Gold trading in the early part of the day, was dominated by profit taking which saw prices fall sharply, only for gold prices to bounce back to close the session higher once again at $982.60/oz, a rise of $6.90 on the day, and largely on the back of yet more US dollar weakness, clearly evidenced on the dollar index chart.  Comments by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in China, saying the US administration remains committed to a strong dollar, failed to impress the markets and the US dollar continued to head South. With the expected dollar strength failing to materialize as a result, this in turn provided further encouragment for gold prices which duly benefitted in later trading.

From a technical perspective, yesterday's candle closed the day with a deep lower shadow, and with the low of the day bouncing off the 9 day moving average, once again adding weight to the bullish tone. In addition, the candle also negated the previous days' "shooting star" candle which had suggested possible weakness in the market, once again reinforcing my view that we should see the psychological four figure price point breached sooner rather than later. With all three moving averages pointing higher, the question is not if, but when!

The short, medium and long term trends are all bullish.

Support:    $968.80 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $1000.00 (psychological level)

Support:    $958.35 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $995.65 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $986.42 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Jun 3 2009, 08:49 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, Jun 2 2009, 08:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Given the extent of the rally in spot gold prices it was hardly surprising that yesterday's gold chart saw both a degree of profit taking and nervousness as the gold price heads towards the $1000 psychological level.  Although the spot gold price posted a loss of $2.90, ending the day at $975.55 per ounce, it nevertheless managed to achieve a price high of $988.65 during the gold trading session, a level last seen on 24th February.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the daily gold chart closed as a shooting star with a deep upper shadow and small body, suggesting that we may well see a pullback in gold prices in the next couple of days.  Such a candle after a rally of this magnitude hardly comes a great surprise and provided it is confirmed today with a down bar, should provide us with some excellent entry opportunities for our longer term position trades as we wait for the bullish move to continue and breach the $1000 per ounce level in due course.   My personal view is that the reversal today and tomorrow will be relatively minor and we will see the trend re-established shortly and is simply taking a breather.

The short term is sideways while medium and long term is bullish.

Support:    $971.85 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $1000.00 (psychological level)

Support:    $958.35 (low of 29/05/09)                                   Resistance: $995.65 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $988.65 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 2 2009, 08:17 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:17 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Generalised and increasing US dollar weakness continues to drive the spot gold price ever higher as it touched $980.17 per ounce last Friday.  Whilst this inverse correlation always boosts the price of gold other factors such as inflation fears and worries about the US's fiscal health too are helping to support all commodities as investors look for a safe haven and a better return.   Spot gold gained an impressive $18.88 to settle at $979.00 per ounce and now looks set to challenge the psychologically key $1000 price point.  From a technical perspective Friday's wide spread up bar simply added further momentum to the bullish move high which has continued in early trading this morning with yet more dollar weakness and a consequent move higher in the price of gold.  With all three moving averages pointing higher it can only be a matter of time before we breach the $1000 price target outlined last week.

Support:    $958.35 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $995.65 (high of 24/02/09)

Support:    $944.00 (low of 28/05/09)                                   Resistance: $987.28 (high of 18/02/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $980.17 (Friday’s high)

Short, medium and long term trends are bullish.

Published on  Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:18 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, May 29 2009, 08:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices finished sharply higher yesterday aided and abetted by US dollar weakness, deep concerns about the US bond market and technical factors on the gold chart.  The move higher saw spot gold prices gain $13.30 to settle at $959.80 per ounce in a market which was also characterized by thinner volumes as a result of a national holiday in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan.  From a technical perspective as outlined in yesterday's market commentary for gold the 9 day moving average has provided the springboard for the move higher with yesterday's candle closing on a wide spread up bar and, more importantly, holding above the $955 price point which now provides good support for any short term retracement in spot gold prices.  This momentum has continued in early trading this morning, and we are now in sight of the psychological $1000 per ounce price target which should be achieved sooner rather than later.  The only caveat for trading today is that with the weekend ahead many gold traders will be squaring their open positions, and we may see a pullback from this morning's highs later in the trading session as traders take their profits off the table.

The short, medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $944.00 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $974.22 (high of 17/02/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $929.60 (low of 06/03/09)                                   Resistance: $964.95 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 29 2009, 08:59 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, May 28 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices fell over $6 yesterday settling at $946.15 per ounce as a result of a stronger US dollar and with markets still so uncertain about the global economy the precious metal will not have any difficulty in attracting fresh buyers on this temporary reversal which confirmed Tuesday's hanging man signal.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle closed with a deep upper shadow and wide body, suggesting that the bears were in control, but it is interesting to note that despite the previous day's candle both of these found support from the 9 day moving average with the low of each day bouncing off this key technical indicator.  Indeed in this morning's trading we have seen the same trading pattern once again with the low of the session bouncing off the 9 day moving average.  This failure to penetrate the moving average is a positive sign for gold bulls but given that we have some very large markets closed in Asia for a national holiday, and coupled with the resistance level that we are currently trying to penetrate at the $950/$955 region my suggestion for today is to step aside and wait for one of the following - either a clear break above the consolidation of the past four days or a break down and below the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  Finally, it is a little too early to say whether the effect of the hanging man candle of Tuesday has been completely dissipated and hence my caution at present for trading gold.

The short and medium term trends are sideways while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $943.55 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $962.50 (high of 19/03/09)

Support:    $929.60 (low of 06/03/09)                                   Resistance: $959.45 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 28 2009, 09:00 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, May 27 2009, 10:33 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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With geopolitical matters now taking centre stage as North Korea continues to increase tension with various threats markets have yet to decide how to respond, but it is curious and interesting to note that both the currency and commodity markets are reacting in a very similar way, with indecision epitomised by various doji candles on the daily charts, coupled with sideways movement and consolidation.  Yesterday's gold chart was typical with spot gold prices ending marginally lower on the day and creating a candle with a deep lower shadow and with the low of the day bouncing off the 9 day moving average and finishing $3.85 down to settle at $952.35 per ounce.    From a technical perspective yesterday's candle is extremely candle to read, particularly as the previous day's candle was created on such thin volume.  Under normal circumstances I would suggest that a spinning top, followed by a "hanging man" would be sufficient to suggest weakness following the bullish rally of the last few weeks, however, I am not entirely convinced that this is the case partly because of the geopolitical background outlined above and partly because the rally has not demonstrated sufficient definition to warrant such an analysis.  My trading suggestion therefore for today is to take a wait and see approach and we may have a clearer idea of the relevance or otherwise of this candle pattern following today's trading session.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, while the long term is bullish.

Support:    $940.60 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $962.50 (high of 19/03/09)

Support:    $929.60 (low of 06/03/09)                                   Resistance: $957.40 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 27 2009, 10:34 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, May 26 2009, 09:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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With markets closed in both the US and UK for a national holiday spot gold prices drifted for most the day and ended one dollar down closing at $956.05 per ounce.  From a technical perspective the candle finished as a long legged doji suggesting that the market may be reaching a short term turning point, particularly as this followed last Thursday's candle which again had deep shadows to both top and bottom once again suggesting  short term indecision.  As a result of these two candles, but bearing in mind that yesterday was against the backdrop of very thin volumes, we may see a temporary reversal in spot gold prices possibly today and tomorrow as investors take profits and digest the fallout (pun not intended) of the North Korea nuclear test situation.   Gold prices may also be preparing themselves from problems which are emerging in the bond market where the yield on 10 year Treasuries has jumped over 90 basis points since March.  The fear is that the US may be engineering a stealth default by allowing the dollar to slide which would only benefit the spot gold price.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for buying opportunities on any reversal today and tomorrow using the longer term intra day charts such as the hour or 4 hour.

The short term is sideways while medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $951.60 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $946.05 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $962.50 (high of 19/03/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $959.80 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 26 2009, 09:23 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, May 25 2009, 10:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Historically spot gold prices tend to slide in late May and languish through the summer primarily because of the seasonal ups and downs of jewellery demand.  Trader reaction would normally be to go short particularly as the spot gold price has risen by more than $90 this month.  However, this year traders may wish to review this strategy on the news that the world's top hedge fund manager, John Paulson, has bought $2.9bn in SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest of the gold exchange traded funds (ETFs), which now hold 1106 tonnes of the precious metal.   With the UK becoming the first of the world's top economies to suffer a downgrade to its "AAA" status the contagion appears to be spreading upwards through the financial food chain.   From a technical perspective spot gold prices continued to rally on Friday and hit a two month high of $961.42 per ounce as the US dollar came under sustained selling pressure but even as traders closed their positions ahead of the extended holiday in the US and the UK spot gold prices still managed to close $3.85 higher to settle at $956.35 per ounce on the gold chart.  With many of the major markets closed today and with very little in the way of fundamental news on the economic calendar it is unlikely that we will see much in the way of price action on the gold chart and therefore I would suggest waiting until tomorrow before we can draw any meaningful conclusion from the daily analysis of spot gold prices.  What is encouraging from a bullish perspective, longer term, is that Friday's price broke through the minor resistance at $948 created back in early March and this therefore adds weight to my view that we will see a run at the $1000 per ounce level in due course.

The short term is sideways, medium and long term bullish.

Support:    $949.60 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $946.05 (low of 20/03/09)                                   Resistance: $962.50 (high of 19/03/09)

Support:    $935.55 (low of 21/05/09)                                   Resistance: $961.42 ( Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 25 2009, 11:03 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, May 22 2009, 08:46 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's wide spread up bar saw spot gold prices surge through our initial target of $950 per ounce which I outlined in yesterday's market commentary for gold prices, settling at $952.55 having gained an impressive $15.44 on the day, but more importantly breaking through the minor resistance created at this price point in mid March.  With all three moving averages now pointing higher and with little in the way of resistance on the daily gold chart ahead the next target for spot gold is the $980 price region last achieved in July 2008 and this may open the way to an assault once again at the four figure price region of $1000 per ounce.  Momentum was given to commodities in general, and both gold and silver, by a dramatic weakening in the US dollar which is now driving investors back into the safe haven status of gold as a result.  My trading suggestion for today, given that many markets are closed on Monday, is to close out your current profitable positions and bank your profits as traders square their accounts ahead of the long weekend, and then look to re-enter on the long side early next week buying on any dips and with an initial price target of $978.

The short term is sideways and the medium and long term are bullish.

Support:    $935.55 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $967.00 (high of 20/03/09)

Support:    $924.75 (low of 20/05/09)                                   Resistance: $962.50 (high of 19/03/09)

Support:    $917.30 (low of 19/05/09)                                   Resistance: $956.02 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 22 2009, 09:41 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, May 21 2009, 11:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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With the euro achieving its strongest level against the US dollar since January spot gold prices closed dramatically higher as investors begin to return to commodities not for a better return but also because of worries about future inflation.  In addition the inverse correlation between a weak UK dollar and spot gold prices seems to have resumed.  Gold prices gained a total of $11.43 to settle at $937.15 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar added significant momentum to the bullish move higher closing above the $935 price point outlined in yesterday's market commentary with the open of the day being fully supported by the 9 day moving average.  With all three averages now pointing higher we should expect to see an attack on the $950 resistance area and if this region is breached then we may well see a move back to re-test the $1000 per ounce level in due course.  Yesterday's price bar also broke above the interim resistance level at $925 once again adding to the bullish tone although we may see some consolidation in today's gold trading.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $924.75 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $957.50 (high of 23/03/09)

Support:    $917.30 (low of 19/05/09)                                   Resistance: $945.32 (high of 26/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $940.61 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 21 2009, 11:05 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, May 20 2009, 07:45 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices ended the day $7.30 higher to settle at $925.75 per ounce reversing much of the loss of Monday and closing above the 9 day moving average and all three moving averages once again.  With equities markets having a more stable day it was left to the slighter weaker US dollar and worse than expected housing starts data which helped to lift spot gold prices.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up candle would seem to suggest that the bearish signal of Monday has not been confirmed although to be absolutely sure we need to see a move back above the $930 - $935 price points once again at which point we can assume that the bullish momentum of the last few weeks remains in place and that Monday was simply market players taking profits from the recent gains.  With all three moving averages pointing higher there is no reason to suppose that this momentum will not continue for some time and our initial target is the $950 to $955 area which should be re-tested once again in due course.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $917.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $940.70 (high of 25/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $936.15 (high of 27/03/09)

Support:    $908.20 (low of 11/05/09)                                   Resistance: $929.10 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 20 2009, 07:48 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, May 19 2009, 07:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices finished lower as commodities and currencies took their cue from equity markets which saw triple digit gains, achieved in a vacuum on a day bereft of any fundamental news on the economic calendar, closing the day $11.85 lower and settling at $918.85.  From a technical perspective the wide spread down bar on yesterday's gold chart has created a bearish signal (bearish engulfing candle) on the previous day closing marginally below the 9 day moving average, and perhaps suggesting that we may see a short term reversal in the price of gold in the next few days.  If this is signal is confirmed in trading today then we could see a move back to re-test support in the $910 region and possibly as low as $895, but as always we need to wait and see whether this is a confirmed, or simply a false signal created on a day with no real news.  Indeed in many of the currency pairs we saw the same effect with currencies rising dramatically, even though the technical picture was bearish suggesting that yesterday's analysis should be treated with some degree of caution.  It would not be a great surprise to see yesterday's price action promptly reversed as the flow of substantive news flows once again.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $918.85 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $940.70 (high of 25/03/09)

Support:    $917.00 (low of 13/05/09)                                   Resistance: $936.15 (high of 27/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $933.60 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 19 2009, 08:01 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, May 18 2009, 07:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Friday's decline in equity markets boosted the spot gold price as gold traders and investors begin to fret about inflation as governments continue with quantitative easing programmes and stimulus packages in an effort to halt the slide in the global economy.  As a result the price of gold gained $4.98 to settle at $930.70 per ounce.  From a technical perspective Friday's up-bar continued the bullish momentum of the week pushing ahead after 2 days of indecision in the market where gold prices took a breather on Wednesday and Thursday.  With both the 9 and 14 day moving averages now having crossed the 40 the bullish sentiment now seems firmly established and having cleared a significant area of resistance created earlier in February and March we should now see a push higher to re-test the $950 price region once again in due course and should this be cleared then there is no reason to suppose that we cannot expect to see the $1000 per ounce target on the horizon once again.  It is interesting to note from a fundamental perspective that the correlation on Friday between gold and a weaker US dollar appears to have fallen out of favour as both strengthened significantly on the day.  My trading suggestion for spot gold today is to look for small long positions on an intra-day basis using the 15 and 30 minute chart with a stop loss below the $916 region or lower, aiming for small profit targets.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $922.80 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $940.70 (high of 25/03/09)

Support:    $917.00 (low of 13/05/09)                                   Resistance: $936.15 (high of 27/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $934.05 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 18 2009, 08:02 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, May 15 2009, 07:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

The following commentary combines two days of gold trading technical analysis owing to problems with the internet.  Wednesday saw gold prices rise to a six week high of $930.60 per ounce on the back of safe haven buying as equity markets retraced, but in afternoon trading gold prices eased as the US gained against the Euro, as gold is usually inversely correlated to the US dollar, closing the day $1.27 down at $924.57 per ounce.  However, many analysts still believe that the gold chart is still showing bullish sentiment, with the 9 and 14 day moving averages above the 40 day, and supported by an increase in volume and additional volatility from both currency and equity markets.  

Support:    $917.00 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $936.15 (high of 27/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $930.60 (yesterday’s high)


Thursday's Gold Chart Analysis:

Following a quiet day's trading spot gold prices managed to finish marginally higher gaining $1.08 on the day to settle at $925.60 per ounce, and from a technical perspective ended the day with an "inside bar" which suggests
further consolidation for the price of gold over the next few days.  Some support was seen from the producer prices data which showed higher than expected numbers adding to some inflation fears, but the longer term move for spot gold will come from the direction of the US dollar.  An excellent indicator for gold trading is the US Dollar Index which thus far has proved extremely reliable in forecasting the general direction for the US Dollar.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions on anintra day basis using the 15 and 30 minute chart, aiming for small profit targets and using tight stop losses.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

 Support:    $919.95 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $936.15 (high of 27/03/09)

Support:    $911.25 (low of 12/05/09)                                   Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $928.60 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 15 2009, 07:51 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, May 13 2009, 08:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets  |  View company's profile

Spot gold prices surged yesterday gaining $12.83 to settle at $925.80 per ounce on the back of a weaker dollar and and traders noting that net long positions in Comex gold futures had increased slightly for the week ending 5th May - up by 891 contracts to 129991 - the highest level in five weeks.  In addition fears that inflation will return in due course as the global economy recovers also helped to push up the price of gold.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar added significant momentum to the bullish tone for gold prices supported by all three moving averages with both the 9 and 14 day now crossing the 40 providing yet further evidence of a sustained move higher to re-test the $929 region last seen on April 2nd.   As we are now trading in an area of significant resistance created during the consolidation of March we will need to see a breakout firstly through the $935 area and secondly above the $950 to be sure that this current trend will continue in the medium term.  If so, we could then see an attempt to re-test the highs of early March in the psychological $1000 per ounce price point in due course.  My trading suggestion today is as of yesterday which is to look for small long positions on an inter-day basis with tight stop losses and small profits.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $911.25 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $927.50 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 13 2009, 08:10 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, May 12 2009, 08:33 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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On a day which lacked any fundamental news of any significance spot gold prices were confined to Friday's trading range although some price support did come in from falls in both equities and the oil market.  Spot gold prices eventually ended the day $3.05 lower, settling at $913.00 per ounce.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle once again closed with a lower shadow similar to Friday's candle suggesting that the bullish tone remains in place, a view supported by all three moving averages, which whilst converging, are also now moving upwards with the 9 and the 40 day about to cross.  However, for any sustained move higher we do need to see a break and hold above $930 followed by a breakout above the high of mid March at $955 and if and until this happens we may see a further period of sideways consolidation but with a bias to the long side.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions intra-day using the 15 minute and 30 minute charts to identify buying opportunities.  My suggestion for stop loss positions is to set these below the previous low of this move in the $880 region or marginally above.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $908.20 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $917.70 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 12 2009, 08:34 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Mon, May 11 2009, 09:44 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Slightly better than expected non farm payroll data prompted gold traders into a round of profit taking as equity markets responded favourably to the possibility of a flattening in unemployment and a small positive signal that the worst may now be over.  However, the late trading session also witnessed renewed dollar weakness as inflation concerns began to emerge and spot gold prices ended the day slightly higher gaining $2.68 to settle at $916.05 per ounce.

From a technical perspective the low of the day bounced off the 40 day moving average and with the candle forming a long lower wick, this suggests that we could see a move higher in the price of gold today.  In addition the 9 and 14 day moving averages are crossing adding weight to this bullish view.  With little in the way of obvious resistance ahead the way should now be open for a move in the price of gold to re-test the $930 per ounce level and if this is cleared we could see a subsequent higher to $950.00 and above. My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions on an intra day basis, buying on any dips in the market.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $904.65 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $920.05 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 11 2009, 09:46 GMT

Gold Spot Price

Fri, May 8 2009, 09:08 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's strong move upwards in spot gold prices in the morning, failed to follow through in the afternoon and evening session as the spot gold market absorbed all the various items of fundamental news and investors took the opportunity to take some profits ahead of the weekend, leaving us with a narrow spread up bar but with a deep upper shadow.  Under normal circumstances this candle would suggest inherent weakness in the market, but given the sideways consolidation of the last few weeks and the minimal "rally" of the last few days I would suggest that its significance is somewhat muted given the current framework against which all markets are now trading.  The close of the day finished above all three moving averages settling $2.98 up at $913.03 per ounce, and with the 9 and the 14 now crossing, the general tone is bullish but all markets, including spot gold, are very unsettled and now await the non farm payroll figures due out later today.  With very little in the way of strong resistance ahead there is no reason to suppose that gold prices will move forward once again in due course, but bear in mind ahead of the weekend, and with nfp imminent, many investors and gold traders will be squaring positions.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $907.95 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $933.20 (high of 01/04/09)

Support:    $895.30 (low of 06/05/09)                                   Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $925.40 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 8 2009, 09:10 GMT

Gold Spot Price

Thu, May 7 2009, 08:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday the gold spot price closed $13.55 higher at $910.40 per ounce on a wide spread up bar which closed above all three moving averages and more importantly breaking through the resistance in the $905 to $910 price region.  Whilst there is considerable congestion and resistance ahead, this was an encouraging sign for gold bulls and the move is now fully supported by all three moving averages although it must be noted that with the tight convergence of the last few weeks these technical indicators carry less weight at present than usual.  For a sustained move higher we will need to see a break above the $924 price point and if this is achieved then we could see an attempt to move back to re-test the $950 price level once again.  Fundamental factors credited with boosting the gold spot price include investor worries about the results of the forthcoming bank stress tests and strength in other metals.   With the results due out today and with rumours suggesting that some of the major US banks will require significant injections of cash in order to remain viable this could be a good day for buying gold.  My trading suggestion is to continue to look for small long trades intra day and with a stop loss below the $865 price point.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $895.30 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $912.50 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 7 2009, 08:59 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Wed, May 6 2009, 08:36 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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A mixed picture in spot gold yesterday with prices initially moving higher on the back of equities and supported by renewed worries about inflation, a weaker dollar, rumours that China is continuing to add to its gold reserves and, of course, nervous anticipation of the bank stress test results.  However, spot gold prices retreated later in the trading session as profit taking became the order of the day and gold finished at $897.55 per ounce, having lost $5.45 overall.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle provided a somewhat confusing picture which precisely mirrors the broader market at present where short term profit taking, indecision, rumour, and speculation are all the order of the day ahead of key news items, in particular the bank stress test results, and until these are released we are likely to see more of the same for today, tomorrow and Friday.  As outlined in yesterday's market commentary for gold prices, my suggestion was to look for small long positions on an intra day basis and to close out any profits quickly.  This is not a time to look for longer term trends and we need to wait until the market has absorbed all the news of the next three days which hopefully will then provide us with some longer term gold trading opportunities.  Yesterday's closing price for gold finished below the 40 day moving average but above both the 9 and 14, the former of these neatly supporting the closing price suggesting that we might see a move higher this morning which indeed seems to be the case in early trading so far.  With the price of gold now above the $900 per ounce price point once again and with an increasing level of support below we should see gold prices move up in due course.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $894.55 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $884.05 (low of 04/05/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $915.75 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 6 2009, 08:37 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Tue, May 5 2009, 08:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold prices ended the day sharply higher, gaining $16 and closing at $902.73 per ounce, on a day characterized by thin volumes due to holidays both in London and Tokyo.  Gold prices were also given a boost by a weaker dollar, inflation concerns and technical buying once the spot gold price had breached the $900 per ounce price point.  From a technical perspective last Friday's doji candle duly delivered an up bar yesterday which closed above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages but failed to hold above the 40, and as outlined in yesterday's commentary these indicators are carrying less weight at the moment due to their close convergence.  In these circumstances we need to consider the broader markets which may influence spot gold prices in the short to medium term and trading this week may be extremely tricky given the raft of economic data, bank stress tests, closure of the Japanese markets for an extended holiday, and the continued consolidation and range bound trading that we have seen for the two months.   Given that this trading pattern in spot gold is likely to continue for some time my suggestion for trading gold in the next few days is to base this on swing trading on an intra day basis, as we are unlikely to see any longer term trends in the near future, and only when we see a break either above $935 or below $865, and in the meantime we need to trade within this range.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $884.05 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)
Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)
Support:    $864.25 (low of 20/04/09)                                   Resistance: $907.30 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 5 2009, 08:17 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Fri, May 1 2009, 09:15 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Speculation about possible IMF gold sales, a slightly stronger dollar and gains in equity markets all conspired to pressure the price of gold which only managed to bounce back in late trading once stock markets had reversed some of their gains.  Overall gold lost $8.08 and finished at $886.22 per ounce having attempted to breach the $900 per ounce price point, ultimately failing as risk appetite returned to the markets and closing below all three moving averages.  The key driver moving forward for spot gold will be the impact of the flu pandemic, or otherwise, and if investors decide to move back strongly into equities then this may have a temporary negative effect on spot gold prices, but at present we may be in for a period of sideways consolidation between $870 and $920 per ounce.

With many markets closed in Europe, Asia and around the world, both today and on Monday, my trading suggestion is to wait until Tuesday next week before opening any new positions as any market movement is likely to be based on thin volumes with unpredictable results.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $880.00 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $864.25 (low of 20/04/09)                                   Resistance: $899.97 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 1 2009, 09:17 GMT

Spot Gold Prices

Thu, Apr 30 2009, 08:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Spot gold moved higher yesterday on the back of a weaker US dollar and a continued strengthening in crude oil prices, gaining $3.71 to settle at $894.31/oz, but failing to capitalise on the flight to quality, as equity markets strengthened, capping any gains in later trading.  All of this was despite a bigger than expected decline in US gross domestic product, with the broad markets focusing on the gains in consumer spending, coupled with the reduction in public spending, rather than on the raw data itself, which was far worse than expected. This seems to be symptomatic of the markets at present, which are currently looking for any silver lining or good news story to help return a more positive tone, which makes trading gold, or indeed any other asset or derivative at the moment, extremely difficult. Many market analysts and commentators are still of the opinion, that until the banks are declared clean, and all the toxic assets clearly identified and ring fenced, then any recovery will be a false dawn, and likely to falter as soon as it begins.  Yesterday was very typical of what we are increasingly likely to see, with bad fundamental news or data having an opposite effect on the market.

From a technical perspective, yesterday's candle closed higher on the day in the gold chart, and marginally above both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, and with a deep  upper wick which briefly crossed the psychological $900 per ounce price point, before falling back below this region once again. For any longer term bullish trend we now need to see spot gold prices break through this resistance level and hold above the $918 per ounce region, for any sustained move higher, and with the current appetite for risk now apparently returning to equity markets, this may prove to be tough going in the next few days. The first target on the daily gold chart is for a break above the 40 day moving average coupled with a move through the existing resistance in the $900 per ounce level and above. If this occurs then we should see a return of the bullish momentum of early February, but any failure at this level could see a retest of the $870 region once again. My trading suggestion for today in spot gold is to attempt small long trades, intra day, using the 15 minute and 30 minute charts with a stop loss below the $864 price region, and with small profit targets.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $887.10 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $864.25 (low of 20/04/09)                                   Resistance: $903.00 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, Apr 30 2009, 08:16 GMT

Spot Gold Prices − 29th April 2009

Wed, Apr 29 2009, 10:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Reasons for yesterday's sell off in spot gold prices range from worries about swine flu, technical selling as stops were triggered once the price fell below the $900 per ounce price point, struggling sales in India - gold buying for this year's Akshaya Tritiya festival seems to have resulted in flows into ETF's rather than physical gold and finally speculation of an imminent new central bank agreement to increase the amount of gold that can be sold which led at one point to the price of gold falling by almost $20.

From a technical perspective the dark cloud over pattern mentioned in yesterday's commentary did indeed convert into a wide spread down bar on the day which temporarily pierced both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, but closed the session marginally above both at $890.70 per ounce losing $14.87 on the day.  There are several important points to note for today's trading which are as follows.  First yesterday's close was supported by the moving averages. as outlined above, which perhaps suggests that this is a positive sign for the bulls.  Secondly. the low of the day failed to penetrate the support immediately below this region, both for that created in early February and the same level created earlier this month, which once again would suggest a possible re-basing of gold prices before any move higher.  Finally with the lower wick yesterday's candle aligning strongly with lower wicks both in mid March and throughout February this again could be considered a positive signal for a move higher in due course.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small long positions intra day in the 15 and 30 minute charts using a stop loss in the $865 per ounce region.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $883.55 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $871.50 (low of 16/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $864.25 (low of 20/04/09)                                   Resistance: $906.00 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Apr 29 2009, 10:11 GMT

Spot Gold Prices − 28th April 2009

Tue, Apr 28 2009, 08:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Yesterday's stronger dollar was probably one of the reasons for the pullback in spot gold prices which finished $6.87 down on the day.  The stronger dollar was caused in part by remarks made by ECB member and Head of Austria's Central Bank, Ewald Nowotny, who suggested that the ECB would be prepared to use "unconventional measures of quantitative easing to assure European firms and consumers access to credit at appropriate conditions," and as Austrian banks are among the most heavily exposed to East European economies, many of which have fallen into a deep recession as credit has dried up, it is not surprising the market reacted so strongly to his comments.  The stronger dollar was also attributed to swine flu and its effects on the global economy should it turn into a pandemic.

From a technical perspective gold prices failed to breach the resistance level at $920 closing the day on a down bar below the 40 day moving average and in addition providing a "dark cloud over" bearish candle pattern, suggesting that we may see a move lower in the short term.  How deep this reversal is likely to be will largely depend on the support level at $900 per ounce and whether this holds firm.  If so then we could see the price of gold bounce off this point and resume the upwards momentum of last week, but any breaching of this region coupled with a break below the 9 and 14 day moving averages could see prices back towards the $880 and below levels once again.  My trading suggestion for today is to look for small short positions intra day in the 15 and 30 min charts using tight stops.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $904.35 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $889.45 (low of 23/04/09)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $881.40 (low of 22/04/09)                                   Resistance: $918.50 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Apr 28 2009, 08:13 GMT

Spot Gold Prices − 27th April 2009

Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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The move by the spot gold price through the psychologically important $900 per ounce level  last Thursday, was reinforced on Friday by a combination of both technical and fundamental factors.    China's announcement that it now holds over 1000 metric tonnes of gold reserves, up from 600 tonnes in 2003 fueled speculation that other central banks may follow suit, and the worry of a shortage as investors turn to the physical metal as opposed to gold backed paper assets on concerns of a serious break down in the global financial system, all added to the bullish tone.  Pure metal in the form of Krugerrands, Maple Leaf coins, or the "five tael biscuit" particularly favoured by the Chinese, entail no counter-party risk, and will all help to boost the gold price.  In addition as investors continue to be nervous until the release of the bank stress test results, the price of gold should maintain its bullish sentiment.

From a technical perspective the price of gold on Friday broke above the 40 day moving average making this a full house on the week with five straight days of gains, and closed on Friday night marginally above this average, adding to the bullish momentum.  In addition gold prices on the week closed above both the psychological $900 per ounce level and, more importantly, through the resistance in this region which now provides a platform for a move higher.  For any sustained longer term move in spot gold we will need to see a break through the $950 per ounce price point and if sufficient momentum is maintained then we could see a run back up to re-test the four figure region once again.  With spot gold prices now above all three moving averages and with some support below, we should see a continued move higher, and for today's gold trading my suggestion would be to attempt small long positions intra day with a stop loss below the $865 region.  My view is supported by the weekly gold chart which closed with a strong bullish engulfing candle which should provide us with some good trading opportunities longer term moving forward.

The short term trend is sideways while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

Support:    $903.75 (Friday’s low)                                      Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $889.45 (yesterday’s low)                                   Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $881.40 (low of 22/04/09)                                   Resistance: $913.90 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:50 GMT

Spot Gold Price − Daily Chart 24th April 2009

Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Not unsurprisingly investor fears and worries are continuing to push up spot gold prices which yesterday crossed the psychological $900 per ounce price point, as I outlined in yesterday's market commentary, closing the day above both this level and also the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  More importantly the close of the day finished marginally above the resistance level in this region suggesting that we could now see a return of bullish sentiment reversing the declines of the last 8 weeks.  Indeed this sentiment seems to have continued in this morning's early trading with gold prices now moving marginally above the 40 day moving average adding some weight to this view, but only if today's close finishes above all three averages.   We may see some additional support to the price of gold from a weaker US dollar which seems to be indicated by the Dollar Index in the short term.  In addition investor concerns about the stress test results and the auto industry, in particular the situation with regard to Chrysler24t is persuading many to hold onto their positions in gold exchange traded funds.  Indeed the World Gold Council has confirmed that inflows into gold ETFs continued to grow throughout this quarter, with investors buying a record 469 tonnes of gold, dwarfing the previous quarterly record of 145 tonnes, set in the third quarter of last year. This took the total amount of gold in ETFs to 1,658 tonnes, worth US$48.6 billion.

My trading suggestion for today is to continue as per yesterday's suggestion and that is to lock in any profits from yesterday's trading and to build further small long positions intra day with tight stop losses and small profit targets, always bearing in mind that ahead of the weekend the market may be subject to squaring of positions by gold traders.

The short term and medium term are sideways, with the long term outlook bullish.

Support:    $889.45 (yesterday’s low)       Resistance: $929.12 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $881.40 (low of 22/04/09)      Resistance: $922.77 (high of 04/03/09)

Support:    $864.25 (low of 20/04/09)      Resistance: $909.15 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:29 GMT

Markets returned into the arms of safe haven gold

Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

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Renewed concerns about the health of the US banks and rumours about a suspect blog purporting to have the stress test results for the banks spooked the markets as investors dumped stocks, thereby triggering short covering as they returned into the arms of safe haven gold. In fact the stress test results are not due out until early May. The spot gold price duly rose and finished the day $15.15 higher, closing marginally above the 9 day moving average but failing to hold above the 14 day. The price of gold is now trading in an extremely narrow range bounded on the downside by 3 tests at $868 and bounded on the upside, again by 3 tests just below $900, a range that has been consolidating for the last 11 days. The upper band of this trading range also aligns strongly with further resistance to the left of the chart created in February and March of this year, and for any move higher we will need to see this level breached coupled with a break above both the 14 day and 40 day moving averages. Should this fail to occur then we must assume that the bearish trend remains in place for the time being and this will only be confirmed should we see a break below the level outlined above. With spot gold prices trading in such a narrow range I would suggest taking a wait and see approach.

The short term trend is bearish while the medium and long term trends are bullish.

• Support: $864.25 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $899.45 (high of 15/04/09)
• Support: $851.90 (low of 23/01/09) Resistance: $893.75 (high of 16/04/09)
• Support: $843.25 (low of 22/01/09) Resistance: $888.45 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:35 GMT