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FX Trend Report

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DXY maintains key support

Wed, Oct 21 2009, 08:59 GMT
by Peter Ruud

Informa Global Markets


The US Dollar Index maintains wedge trendline support and a key Fibonacci retracement (78.6% of July 08 to March 09 range) remains in place despite failing to overcome the 10-day MA & the 76 handle (former pivot support turned resistance). Meanwhile, the EUR/USD retreated after failing to breach the coveted 1.50 barrier, highlighting 4-hourly bearish MACD, RSI & Stochastics divergence. More importantly, Tuesday's reaction low has highlighted a short-term rising wedge, while 4-hourly RSI has formed a Head & Shoulders pattern. A break below wedge support & the 10-day MA (under the 1.49 region) together with a loss of RSI neckline support near 50, could suggest a deeper retreat towards the 35-day EMA (near 1.4750). A 4-hour close above 1.50, however, will negate the wedge scenario and could trigger a parabolic move up towards 1.52.

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