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FX Technical Strategy
5
0
Top and tail outlook for majors
Wed, Apr 29 2009, 06:13 GMT
by Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Economic Research Team
Market overview
The underlying pro risk theme remains the preferred strategy as the markets continue to recover from oversold levels. Despite this, a consolidation phase is warranted at current levels and given the extent of the recovery short term retracements should be expected. Whilst the long term outlook continues to favour a cautious approach, support should remain for Asian equity markets and although core markets could under perform, the synchronicity of these trends should ensure further gains from a medium term perspective. In the FX space, the bullish sterling theme remains (although 'airpockets' remain a risk) coupled with an underlying bullish tone to commodity related currencies.
The trend for volatility remains downwards. Despite this, the target of single digits for one month euro dollar vols. by May (10th March release) could be slighlty out of reach. The market is anticipating some elevation in the short term but if this does not materialise, the downside prospects will represent a double whammy and confine the markets to further range trading into early H2.
Published on Wed, Apr 29 2009, 06:16 GMT
Archive
- Manufacturing and services PMI data for October on Monday
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 07:04 GMT - GBP/USD has gone some way over the past week
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 14:08 GMT - Fed FOMC speakers will outnumber economic data reports next week
Published On Fri, Oct 16 2009, 10:50 GMT - Fed fund futures price a 58% chance of a 25bps rate hike by end of Q1 2010
Published On Thu, Sep 17 2009, 09:14 GMT - The end of the US Labour Day weekend is traditionally marked by improved liquidity
Published On Fri, Sep 11 2009, 12:44 GMT
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http://www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com/doc/fms/financial_markets.htm | Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk
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