Dollar bear trend close to resuming
Wed, Jul 2 2008, 11:37 GMT
by Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Economic Research Team
Market overview
In the last release, the discussion centred on the prospects that the dollar bear trend was close to resuming. Whilst a straight line move may not be forthcoming due to the current market environment, the risk for dollar swiss to hit parity and and euro dollar to break through 1.60 remains.
Although it's a familar argument, the technical trends in commodities remain strong and the precious metals market looks set to eject from the broad ranges to the upside. This further compounds the flight to quality/ risk aversion trades. This continues to make the yen and Swiss franc attractive with dollar yen targets back at 100 and then 90.00 and sterling yen easing back towards 200.00 once again.
With equities completing major topping formations (Dow breaching the Jan 22nd low) the upward pressure on short term US rates has clearly eased, although volatility remains high.
