FX Technical Strategy
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Dollar outlook remains bearish
Wed, Oct 15 2008, 10:34 GMT
by Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Economic Research Team
Market overview
Last week saw the end of an historic chapter in financial markets. With the equity markets in a climatic selling mode, the indications are for a medium term recovery for equities. However, it is unlikely to represent the end of the longer term bear market.
Given this scenario, a recovery in oil and soft commodities should be expected, although a short term range whilst the market forms a base can not be ruled out. This also suggests a recovery in the stricken emerging market currencies together with the core currencies which were most affected by the unfolding crisis.
As the decline in commodity prices, coupled with the drop in equities, magnified the drop in the high yielders, the reverse scenario should also be true. Given the sentiment change, the developing trends should be for further appreciation in the high yielders, together with a rally in sterling against the US dollar and euro.
Published on Wed, Oct 15 2008, 10:37 GMT
Archive
- Green shoots' roots in commodities
Published On Wed, May 13 2009, 07:17 GMT - Top and tail outlook for majors
Published On Wed, Apr 29 2009, 06:13 GMT - Base case for sterling
Published On Thu, Apr 23 2009, 06:07 GMT - Risk appetite is reduced
Published On Wed, Apr 8 2009, 06:39 GMT - Dollar weakness is a long term story
Published On Wed, Mar 25 2009, 12:30 GMT
Lloyds TSB
| Faryners House, 25 Monument, London EC3R8BQ
http://www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com/doc/fms/financial_markets.htm | Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk
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