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FX Technical Strategy
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Cable unstable
Wed, Sep 3 2008, 11:30 GMT
by Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Economic Research Team
Market overview
The trend for the dollar continues to push higher, but despite this scenario it should be noted that the yen has been the stronger of the two currencies and in technical terms this does suggest non-confirmation of a dollar bull market. Clearly the dollar has pushed higher against it's major counterparts with sterling and the commodity based currencies taking the full brunt of the correction. However it still remains a fact that dollar yen topped out over 110.60, therefore making the yen the main trade against the majors and crosses. Naturally there is scope for the yen to fall into line, but if so the why the delay? A corrective move over 109.00 is definitely possible, but targets remain at 106.00 from a two-week perspective and any eventual unwinding of dollar longs is likely to be equally aggressive.
For the time being, with no signals in the price action confirming any buying interest and gold slipping dangerously towards the 800 level that could precipitate another major correction, the high point for the dollar has yet to be confirmed. Also with volatility so high, flexibility has to be key this week, but for the moment the scenario points to a cautiously positive dollar strategy.
Published on Wed, Sep 3 2008, 11:32 GMT
Archive
- Manufacturing and services PMI data for October on Monday
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 07:04 GMT - GBP/USD has gone some way over the past week
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 14:08 GMT - Fed FOMC speakers will outnumber economic data reports next week
Published On Fri, Oct 16 2009, 10:50 GMT - Fed fund futures price a 58% chance of a 25bps rate hike by end of Q1 2010
Published On Thu, Sep 17 2009, 09:14 GMT - The end of the US Labour Day weekend is traditionally marked by improved liquidity
Published On Fri, Sep 11 2009, 12:44 GMT
Lloyds TSB
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http://www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com/doc/fms/financial_markets.htm | Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk
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