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FX Technical Strategy
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Back to square one
Wed, Jul 9 2008, 12:05 GMT
by Lloyds TSB Financial Markets Economic Research Team
Market overview
The anticipated euro dollar break out wasn't to be and the market has dropped back into the centre of a range. Whilst the dollar bear story has clearly weakened in the short term, the risk over the long term remains to the downside and, after what could be another fortnight of range bound price action, a break-out should be forthcoming.
Interestingly, despite the drop in equities, precious metals have remained range-bound and traction in the yen has been very limited. Whilst relationships can break down, there is also a risk of a sharp correction in the yen, although there does not appear to be any immediate risk of this. Indeed euro yen continues to try and hold over the 2007 resistance at 168.95 and should attempt a final squeeze.
Euro sterling continues to be painted into a corner. The break-out risk favours the upside, but clear resistance at 0.8001 is the main hurdle. As the trigger lines converge for a break out, we should be close to a resolution. All in all the market does feel very short term in orientation, but hopefully will not remain this way for too much longer.
Published on Wed, Jul 9 2008, 12:11 GMT
Archive
- Manufacturing and services PMI data for October on Monday
Published On Mon, Nov 2 2009, 07:04 GMT - GBP/USD has gone some way over the past week
Published On Fri, Oct 23 2009, 14:08 GMT - Fed FOMC speakers will outnumber economic data reports next week
Published On Fri, Oct 16 2009, 10:50 GMT - Fed fund futures price a 58% chance of a 25bps rate hike by end of Q1 2010
Published On Thu, Sep 17 2009, 09:14 GMT - The end of the US Labour Day weekend is traditionally marked by improved liquidity
Published On Fri, Sep 11 2009, 12:44 GMT
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http://www.lloydstsbfinancialmarkets.com/doc/fms/financial_markets.htm | Sarah.Pedder@LLOYDSTSB.co.uk
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