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Stock markets and the SEK − some details
Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:27 GMT
by Stefan Mellin
Stock market implications for the SEK
-Global equity markets have indeed been a key driver behind the historic depreciation of the SEK as well as its recent rebound. At least two channels can be identified: risk sentiment (primarily foreign investors) and rebalancing flows (primarily Swedish assets managers).
-At this point we are inclined to characterize the rebound in equities as a bear market rally, but either way it will continue to have central implications for foreign exchange, not least the SEK. As a short-term tactical trade we are short EURSEK (see "Buy AUDJPY and sell EURSEK spot", 16 Mar).
- Our calculations suggest that within G10 the SEK, JPY and CHF have been the most susceptible to stock markets over the last few years. While EURJPY has lost some correlation recently, EURSEK is still to a large extent stock market driven (upper chart).
-SEK investors betting on direction in the stock market should be careful which SEK pair to sell or buy. It might be well known that the best strategy historically has been trading SEK vs CHF, with JPY and EUR as 2nd and 3rd choice. Last month's stock market correlation has increased in general and notably USDSEK is better correlated with S&P500 than all other G10 SEK crosses. NOK, GBP and AUD should be avoided
Published on Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:37 GMT
Archive
- USD: February TIC data
Published On Fri, Apr 17 2009, 07:44 GMT - Stock markets and the SEK - some details
Published On Tue, Mar 17 2009, 15:27 GMT - USD: January TIC data - US investors start buying, those elsewhere stop
Published On Tue, Mar 17 2009, 10:20 GMT - An overview of G10 equity betas
Published On Wed, Mar 11 2009, 15:57 GMT - EUR/USD: Reserve balancing by Russia likely to add downside pressure on EUR/USD
Published On Thu, Feb 5 2009, 11:35 GMT
Danske Bank
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http://www.danskebank.com/ | danskeresearch@danskebank.com
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This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector. This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange. Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.Related reports
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