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USD: January TIC data − US investors start buying, those elsewhere stop
Tue, Mar 17 2009, 10:20 GMT
by Kasper Kirkegaard, Lars Rasmussen
Danske Bank A/S
Large capital outflow from the US
- January's TIC data surprisingly showed a large capital outflow from the US, as non-US investors sold US agency and corporate debt in particular, while US investors stopped repatriating foreign securities and instead started buying.
- Net foreign sales of long-term securities totalled USD43bn (expected buying of USD45bn) compared with a revised inflow of USD34.8bn in December. Including shortterm securities the outflow was even larger at USD148.9bn.
- Foreign investors continued to sell agency debt (debt issued by companies such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), while US corporate bonds were also sold off - perhaps not that surprisingly, as the US stock market saw its worst recorded January ever. On a positive note, foreign demand for US Treasuries remained intact in January.
- Meanwhile, US investors stopped repatriating foreign investments and instead bought USD24.2bn net worth of foreign long-term securities - the first net buying seen since June last year. Capital flows generally supported the dollar in the autumn, but this was clearly not the case in January - even so, the effective dollar index strengthened by 3% in January.
Published on
Tue, Mar 17 2009, 10:25 GMT
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