日本語
Español
中文
Русский 
- New York 11:49
- London 16:49
- Barcelona 17:49
- Tokyo 01:49
- Sydney 03:49
Forex Trading Strategies
0
0
BoE hikes to 5.50% as expected
Thu, May 10 2007, 12:48 GMT
by Johan Ditz Lemche
ECB leaves rates unchanged at 3.75%, which was a non-event. The statement at 12:30 GMT will be the trigger. Most investors expect "Vigilance" from Trichet, so the risk lies in a lower EUR.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Notes from yesterday
USD
Markets awaits the FOMC decision tonight and are quite range bound as the trigger gets tightened, waiting for the rate outcome and more importantly, the accompanying statement from the Federal Reserve. As we haven’t seen any important data releases this week, markets have been influenced by technical trading and of course on speculative trades, positioning for the Fed statement. We as well as market consensus, expect an unchanged rate tonight at 5.25 pct. and that the statement will contain continued focus on elevated inflation and slowing growth which also were reflected in the Q1 figures, where growth was lower than expected and inflation higher than consensus. This scenario is characterized as stagflation lite. For the EURUSD we are sellers below the lows from yesterday at 1.3518 and if the Fed comes out more dovish than expected, we will buy the break of 1.3620. The last solution will also technically put the EURUSD back into the bull-trend, targeting recent highs at 1.3680.
GBP
The sterling has strengthened today on back of speculation that the Bank of England will hike 50 bp to 5.75 pct. tomorrow, above the 25bp consensus in the market. If they surprise the market (as they did in January), GBPUSD will definately be above 2.00 at the end of tomorrow. The reason for a 50bp hike would be to curb inflation and get an immediate impact instead of gradually raising the rates. Market consensus, as well as what we expect, is a 25bp increase. This is also indicated by the interest futures market, where the 3 month contract is trading a 5.75 pct. , indicating that the BoE will raise rates gradually.
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Published on Thu, May 10 2007, 12:50 GMT
Archive
- USDJPY closing in on lows for the year
Published On Tue, Nov 24 2009, 14:20 GMT - Dollar bears take a breather as Asia focuses on bank capital levels
Published On Tue, Nov 24 2009, 07:27 GMT - Market starts the week with another attempt at reinvigorating the USD carry trade
Published On Tue, Nov 24 2009, 05:57 GMT - Gold leads a renewed charge against the dollar in thin Asian markets
Published On Mon, Nov 23 2009, 07:09 GMT - EURUSD hanging on to support by a thread so far
Published On Fri, Nov 20 2009, 13:53 GMT
Saxo Bank
| Smakkedalen 2, DK-2820 Gentofte
http://www.saxobank.com/ | info@saxobank.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.Interested in forex trading? forex brokerage firms!
GET CASH BACK FOR YOUR TRADES! Learn more about the Pip Rebate Program
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Opinions expressed at FXstreet.com are those of the individual authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of FXstreet.com or its management. FXstreet.com has not verified the accuracy or basis-in-fact of any claim or statement made by any independent author: errors and Omissions may occur.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website, by FXstreet.com, its employees, partners or contributors, is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. FXstreet.com will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
©2009 "FXstreet.com. The Forex Market" All Rights Reserved.