Market Commentary
With the US Dollar Index is approaching critical support of 78.20, DXH2 may become sideways between 79.40 and 78.20. Dow Jones Industrials is trading at the last year highs of 12900 ranges; DJIA Vs DX correlation suggests a word of caution though the major trend of the Greenback is bearish and the major trend of the Dow is bullish, both may trade sideways before resuming respective trends. Only consistent close above 13000 would reinitiate major rally in the Dow Industrials.
The long-term trend is still bearish till the Dollar Index does not close above 83.50 on monthly basis. Historic congestion is seen in the ranges of 81.40-83.50. Historic correlation between DX Vs DJIA is signifying USD bearishness in long-term, only if 83.50 is given away on monthly closing basis; long-term bottom would be posted in the USD.
NYMEX Feb Crude after couple of subdued trading sessions, rallied smartly from $95.00 ranges to currently trade firm at $99.60 ranges. Correlation between CLH2 and DJIA has again turned positive. The major trend is intact till it manages to close consistently above $89.00 ranges on weekly basis; the short term trend is also turning bullish targeting $101.50 ranges.
| FX Pair | Trend | Support 2 | Support 1 | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
| EURUSD | Sideways | 1.3100 | 1.3180 | 1.3335 | 1.3370 |
| USDJPY | Sideways | 77.10 | 77.30 | 77.75 | 78.10 |
| GBPUSD | Sideways | 1.5630 | 1.5690 | 1.5850 | 1.5930 |
| USDCHF | Sideways-Down | 0.8990 | 0.9060 | 0.9145 | 0.9160 |
| EURJPY | Sideways | 101.60 | 102.00 | 103.30 | 103.80 |
| AUDUSD | Sideways-Up | 1.0620 | 1.0660 | 1.0750 | 1.0830 |
| Date | Time (ET) | Economic Statistic | For | Actual | Previous | Revised From |
| 14-Feb | 8:30 | Retail Sales | Jan | 0.10% | ||
| 14-Feb | 8:30 | Retail Sales ex-auto | Jan | -0.20% | ||
| 14-Feb | 8:30 | Export Prices ex-ag. | Jan | -0.20% | ||
| 14-Feb | 8:30 | Import Prices ex-oil | Jan | 0.10% | ||
| 14-Feb | 10:00 | Business Inventories | Dec | 0.30% | ||
| 15-Feb | 7:00 | MBA Mortgage Index | 2-Nov | 7.50% | ||
| 15-Feb | 8:30 | Empire Manufacturing | Feb | 13.5 | ||
| 15-Feb | 9:00 | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | Dec | $59.8B | ||
| 15-Feb | 9:15 | Industrial Production | Jan | 0.40% | ||
| 15-Feb | 9:15 | Capacity Utilization | Jan | 78.10% | ||
| 15-Feb | 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | Feb | 25 | ||
| 15-Feb | 10:30 | Crude Inventories | 2-Nov | 0.304M | ||
| 15-Feb | 14:00 | FOMC Minutes | 25-Jan | |||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | Initial Claims | 2-Nov | 358K | ||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | Continuing Claims | 2-Apr | 3515K | ||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | Housing Starts | Jan | 657K | ||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | Building Permits | Jan | 679K | ||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | PPI | Jan | -0.10% | ||
| 16-Feb | 8:30 | Core PPI | Jan | 0.30% | ||
| 16-Feb | 10:00 | Philadelphia Fed | Feb | 7.3 | ||
| 17-Feb | 8:30 | CPI | Jan | 0.00% | ||
| 17-Feb | 8:30 | Core CPI | Jan | 0.10% | ||
| 17-Feb | 10:00 | Leading Indicators | Jan | 0.40% |
