GBP/USD, EUR/USD and STG/EURO
Tue, Jun 16 2009, 07:31 GMT
by Carol Harmer
GBP/USD
Cable did not come as low as expected and although it came lower it actually held up well, dipping this morning to 1.6210. Now this will be the level to watch today.
If buyers can keep it above here then there is scope for this to trade higher. Already you have seen the first short term fib level of 1.6315 attained. Short term charts are showing overbought conditions at these highs and if buyers fail to push this through current resistance then sellers will take advantage and drive this lower once more to the 1.6210 support. Buyers will be evident at these lows, but if 1.6200 fails sellers will take control and buyers will exit longs looking for the market to come lower with 1.6115/06 then the short term objective. This is the longer term 25% fib level thus it offers sanctuary for a short while.
Above 1.6325 at least takes the immediate pressure off the downside and buyers should then move this to 1.6415 minimum target.
EUR/USD
Slightly lower start today but it has recovered well and broken through the first short term fib level of 1.3820 and attained the 2nd 38% fib of 1.3855. Now on the short term chart the market is showing overbought and so this 1.3855 will be the key to direction for today.
If sellers hold on and stand fast the market will about turn and head lower with 1.3755/1.3735 looking to entice. Here buyers are waiting. Short covering will also apply, and you should find this support holding initial test. However any longs instated at these lower levels will be reversed if below 1.3710. Below here sees the longer term 50% fib level tested which comes in at 1.3610.
Resistance at 1.3855 breaking leave scope for buyers to push this higher, even with the short term overbought conditions. You will then find the 1.3925 to 1.3960 resistance looking to entice.
STG / EURO
Stg/Euro captured by 1.1835 again, and selling pressure came, dropping this down to 1.1769.
Now there is a small top in place on the hourly charts and today if buyers cannot break above 1.1835 you will see further downward pressure with 1.1705/00 once more targeted. Here buyers will come to the fore, and try and defend. However a break below this support will weaken the market further with sellers getting the upper hand to 1.1660.
Above 1.1835 and sellers will dissolve leaving buyers free to pursue the longer term weekly objective of 1.1927.
