After the last bout of weakness the USD suffered, it is just repeatedly testing the long-term support lines against the majors. The main feature of the G20 meeting was that the world economies will continue "with every tool" they have to revive the economy. This means further fiscal and monetary expansion and is taken as the reason for the Greenback's renewed weakness. We doubt it really is, though, and wonder which fundamental reason will be used as the reason to explain the next weakness in the USD.
We will stick to the technical reasons and the technical analysis says that there is a clearly-defined downtrend for the dollar, with enough confirmations to assume further down movements will follow. Expect a lot of sell stops below, for example, the CHF's 1.0000 level, and buy stops above the euro's 1.5050 / 1.5100 marks. If these are hit, that would accelerate the next downmove in the USD, which we are expecting too.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Trading currently at 1.5030, the pair seems to attack the 1.5050 level. We do not expect this mark to be broken substantially today and expect a range between present levels and 1.4980 on the downside.
GBP / USD
The pound is on a recovery move against the dollar this European morning, trading right now at 1.6750. We see the upward steam slowing down soon, once the 1.6820 resistance level is tested. Afterwards, a sideways market could set in today, probing lower levels at 1.6670.
USD / CHF
In another small downmove, the USD is currently priced at 1.0045 against the Swiss franc, so far the European morning's low. We do not see much more downside risk, rather some upmoves in today's trading, but not above 1.0080.
USD / JPY
Currently trading at 89.90 against the yen, the dollar recovered in late Asian and early European hours. Again, the resistance level at 90.00 is about to be tested, but most probably not broken today. Downmoves from present levels are more likely, to the 88.60 mark.
We will stick to the technical reasons and the technical analysis says that there is a clearly-defined downtrend for the dollar, with enough confirmations to assume further down movements will follow. Expect a lot of sell stops below, for example, the CHF's 1.0000 level, and buy stops above the euro's 1.5050 / 1.5100 marks. If these are hit, that would accelerate the next downmove in the USD, which we are expecting too.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Trading currently at 1.5030, the pair seems to attack the 1.5050 level. We do not expect this mark to be broken substantially today and expect a range between present levels and 1.4980 on the downside.
GBP / USD
The pound is on a recovery move against the dollar this European morning, trading right now at 1.6750. We see the upward steam slowing down soon, once the 1.6820 resistance level is tested. Afterwards, a sideways market could set in today, probing lower levels at 1.6670.
USD / CHF
In another small downmove, the USD is currently priced at 1.0045 against the Swiss franc, so far the European morning's low. We do not see much more downside risk, rather some upmoves in today's trading, but not above 1.0080.
USD / JPY
Currently trading at 89.90 against the yen, the dollar recovered in late Asian and early European hours. Again, the resistance level at 90.00 is about to be tested, but most probably not broken today. Downmoves from present levels are more likely, to the 88.60 mark.
