Not very far, but most probably down, not up. It is the fourth quarter that we are facing, usually a weak quarter for the dollar. Year-end business transactions is the main reason for it, speculation usually makes a big fuss of it, leading to absurd levels in the majors, especially towards year-end. Well, next year will be another year with other aspects, but for now we have to live with the dictate of the general opinion: the dollar is stigmatized with coming price inflation, ignited by the past big fiscal and monetary expansion. We will see about that, because we doubt that the new fear (price inflation) has a realistic base in these murky economic times.

But we are in the short term intraday business, although some longer-term thoughts could not hurt, on the contrary. For today‘s trading, we look again for some favorable points to sell the dollar, as descibed below in the major pairs‘ list. Such a point is coming into effect soon.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The market is consolidating its higher levels this European morning, appearing to go down right now, and currently trading around 1.4780. For us, it is only a downward correction soon to end, which then gives way for another upmovement.

GBP / USD
The pound is keeping up its higher levels against the dollar, although right now in very low volatility, at 1.6430. We intend to buy it around 1.6360, not above. with an objective of 1.6490.

USD / CHF
The dollar is hesitating in a very quiet market to go lower against the Swiss franc, but it cannot reveal the fact of a real bear market in place. Trading right now at 1.0230, we expect another bout of weakness today, coming to marks around 1.0100.

USD / JPY
Weaker in the Asian session, but stronger again in the early European market, the dollar is reviving again vs. the yen, currently at 91.30. Levels of up to 91.90 are possible today from here.