It is quite normal that the dollar tends weaker in the fourth quarter, since many year-end transactions of the global economy have to be prepared, repatriating funds, for instance, and therefore distorting the Forex system a little. What makes matter worse is the talk surrounding the whole thing, Almost every time, the critics see a financial crisis (as if we would not have enough of that already), especially for the USD. They see it vanished, only to look a little puzzled when business returns to normal the next year. True, anyone who shorted the dollar over the last 40 years at the beginning of the fourth quarter and bought it back at the end of the year made a profit in 9 out of 10 cases, averaging 15-25%. Most possibly, thie end of this year will not be different: The dollar will be talked down to levels around .075 against the Swiss franc and 1.6500 against the euro at the end of the year.
We are far away from that, and intraday trading is a quite different thing compared with longer-term thoughts. But it can be useful even in the shortest considerations to keep a bigger picture in mind, and that picture presently reveals a lower dollar. Right now the Greenback is in a consolidation phase on low levels; we would not look for recovery moves for today - a sideways movement is the most probable outcome, between the bands described below in detail. There are no real fundamental factors scheduled for today, except perhaps the U.S. leading indicators for August - at 16:00 CET, assumed to be positive.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The euro corrected downward this European morning, but just to now 1.4660, still a high level against the dollar. What’s more, the market is oversold already, meaning an upward correction could soon set in now. We see that happening, with a rather sideways movment to develop today, with an upper limit at 1.4720 and a lower at 1.4640.
GBP / USD
The pound in its down correction has lost considerably more than the euro this morning, trading now around 1.6165 against the dollar. We do not expect much more downside risk today and rather project recovery moves up to as much as the 1.6350 level, from where further setbacks can follow. Pretty volatile, this market today.
USD / CHF
A somewhat bigger up correction of the dollar against the Swiss franc found its continuation this European morning. Trading currently at 1.0360, and in heavily overbought condition already, we see weaker hours for the dollar ahead, perhaps down to levels below 1.0300 again.
USD / JPY
For two days, the dollar has been in a bull trend against the yen, slowly but steadily. Right now trading at 92.20 this European morning, the market might call for a down correction, say to 91.70. But then another upmove is in the cards, this time exceeding the 92.20 level.
We are far away from that, and intraday trading is a quite different thing compared with longer-term thoughts. But it can be useful even in the shortest considerations to keep a bigger picture in mind, and that picture presently reveals a lower dollar. Right now the Greenback is in a consolidation phase on low levels; we would not look for recovery moves for today - a sideways movement is the most probable outcome, between the bands described below in detail. There are no real fundamental factors scheduled for today, except perhaps the U.S. leading indicators for August - at 16:00 CET, assumed to be positive.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The euro corrected downward this European morning, but just to now 1.4660, still a high level against the dollar. What’s more, the market is oversold already, meaning an upward correction could soon set in now. We see that happening, with a rather sideways movment to develop today, with an upper limit at 1.4720 and a lower at 1.4640.
GBP / USD
The pound in its down correction has lost considerably more than the euro this morning, trading now around 1.6165 against the dollar. We do not expect much more downside risk today and rather project recovery moves up to as much as the 1.6350 level, from where further setbacks can follow. Pretty volatile, this market today.
USD / CHF
A somewhat bigger up correction of the dollar against the Swiss franc found its continuation this European morning. Trading currently at 1.0360, and in heavily overbought condition already, we see weaker hours for the dollar ahead, perhaps down to levels below 1.0300 again.
USD / JPY
For two days, the dollar has been in a bull trend against the yen, slowly but steadily. Right now trading at 92.20 this European morning, the market might call for a down correction, say to 91.70. But then another upmove is in the cards, this time exceeding the 92.20 level.
