Never before had the central bankers such a thin rope to walk, approaching the near zero interest rate level, doing all sorts of things in quantitative easing in an unprecedented way. All this to prevent the world economy going into abyss. It seems like it helped - the big danger is over. But that is only half of the job - the real difficult rope dance has yet to be done. It is the careful tuning of their monetary policy to prevent inflation to rise substantially. without hurting the economic recovery. Take The Fed, which has the most difficult job to do here, because of the sheer size of the monetary (and fiscal) expansion. Mr. Bernanke must hope on a slow recovery, initiated by structural growth - both would siphon off inflation potential over time. What does this mean for Forex? Well, with all the economies more or less in the same pot, it is at least an explanation why the Dollar continues to move in its sideward market, leaving just room to trade technical aspects like support/resistance and overbought/oversold situations.
No wonder then that remarks of M. Trichet yesterday to an unchanged interest rate policy had little effect on the EUR/USD market except a quiet normal mild down correction from short term overbought levels. In today's trading we are following this sideways projection, with the trading bands described in detail below. Note today's employment figures for August, at 14:30 CET, the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR/USD
Still caught within tight trading bands against the Dollar, the Euro continues to consolidate its somewhat higher levels, right now trading at 1.4275 in this European morning. We do not see some decisive moves happening today, merely a testing of the upper end of the channel at 1.4330 and of the downside around 1.4220.
GBP/USD
Cable is just testing the 1.6350 resistance level for the fourth time now since 2 days, currently trading at 1.6340. We still expect that level to hold more or less in today`s trading, at least not presenting a special trading chance on the upside - and focus rather on the downside, towards the 1.6250 mark.
USD/CHF
An eventless Dollar market against the Siss Franc seems to continue for a while in today`s trading. Trading quietly around 1.0620 right now, with a very slight bid tone, we expect the Dollar only to move slowly up today, towards levels of 1.0650.
USD/JPY
The Dollar, mainting its downtrend against the Yen, recovered somewhat in late Asian and early European trading, currently at 92.90, and about to finish this upward correction. We see still lower levels later in the day being touched, to a maximum of 91.50.
No wonder then that remarks of M. Trichet yesterday to an unchanged interest rate policy had little effect on the EUR/USD market except a quiet normal mild down correction from short term overbought levels. In today's trading we are following this sideways projection, with the trading bands described in detail below. Note today's employment figures for August, at 14:30 CET, the non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR/USD
Still caught within tight trading bands against the Dollar, the Euro continues to consolidate its somewhat higher levels, right now trading at 1.4275 in this European morning. We do not see some decisive moves happening today, merely a testing of the upper end of the channel at 1.4330 and of the downside around 1.4220.
GBP/USD
Cable is just testing the 1.6350 resistance level for the fourth time now since 2 days, currently trading at 1.6340. We still expect that level to hold more or less in today`s trading, at least not presenting a special trading chance on the upside - and focus rather on the downside, towards the 1.6250 mark.
USD/CHF
An eventless Dollar market against the Siss Franc seems to continue for a while in today`s trading. Trading quietly around 1.0620 right now, with a very slight bid tone, we expect the Dollar only to move slowly up today, towards levels of 1.0650.
USD/JPY
The Dollar, mainting its downtrend against the Yen, recovered somewhat in late Asian and early European trading, currently at 92.90, and about to finish this upward correction. We see still lower levels later in the day being touched, to a maximum of 91.50.
