The all-important economy of Germany for the Eurozone is back in the black again, supported by good export business. This comes as a big surprise, given the expectations of -0.3 GDP for the second quarter turning out to be +0.3. Although this is still a preliminary estimate, it is a fact that the export driven motor industry is starting to hum again. Now what is really interesting is the fact that after Germany’s and France’s GDP publication, the euro was reluctant to climb further against the dollar. Could it be that the same fear is coming up now in the Eurozone as in the USD, namely future inflation is knocking on the door because of massive monetary and fiscal expansion? But in that case, if the global economies’ revival turns out to be as simultaneous as they went into the slump, there is in the EUR / USD nothing more to be expected than a sideways trend. We think that scenario is the most probable.
Observing the facts mentioned above, and noticing the oversold status of the USD against its majors right now, we tend to project a bid tone for the Greenback today, as described in detail below. Note today’s U.S. consumer price index, to be released at 14:15 CET, U.S. industrial production and U.S. capacity utilization, to be released at 15:15, all market movers and all for July.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
This market is trying hard to overcome the 1.4300 resistance level against the dollar this European morning, but not hard enough in our opinion. Trading currently at 1.4280 in a sideways move, we doubt the 1.4300 level will be broken significantly on the upside and see rather downmoves from there to the 1.4250 mark.
GBP / USD
The pound is on a slight upmove right now against the dollar in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.6560. We see the unusual low volatility in this market continuing in today’s trading, the 1.6600 level not being broken, and eventually the lower end of the trading range around 1.6500 being tested.
USD / CHF
The dollar found support against the Swiss franc in European morning trading and is currently at 1.0710. We regard this zone as a major support for today’s trading, repeatedly tested but not broken on the downside. Expect recovery moves from there, to a maximum of 1.0760.
USD / JPY
Just consolidating at lower levels, the USD is trading in low volatility in the early European hours, currently at 95.15. We see some weakness coming in this market today, leading to prices around 94.50.
Observing the facts mentioned above, and noticing the oversold status of the USD against its majors right now, we tend to project a bid tone for the Greenback today, as described in detail below. Note today’s U.S. consumer price index, to be released at 14:15 CET, U.S. industrial production and U.S. capacity utilization, to be released at 15:15, all market movers and all for July.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
This market is trying hard to overcome the 1.4300 resistance level against the dollar this European morning, but not hard enough in our opinion. Trading currently at 1.4280 in a sideways move, we doubt the 1.4300 level will be broken significantly on the upside and see rather downmoves from there to the 1.4250 mark.
GBP / USD
The pound is on a slight upmove right now against the dollar in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.6560. We see the unusual low volatility in this market continuing in today’s trading, the 1.6600 level not being broken, and eventually the lower end of the trading range around 1.6500 being tested.
USD / CHF
The dollar found support against the Swiss franc in European morning trading and is currently at 1.0710. We regard this zone as a major support for today’s trading, repeatedly tested but not broken on the downside. Expect recovery moves from there, to a maximum of 1.0760.
USD / JPY
Just consolidating at lower levels, the USD is trading in low volatility in the early European hours, currently at 95.15. We see some weakness coming in this market today, leading to prices around 94.50.
