Equilibrium in markets is not exactly what traders like, but it is what’s happening now in the Forex market and we do not see a major change of this attitude. Whatever the economic or monetary data reveal over the summer - too great are the similarities in the global economies. So let us concentrate on the pure technical factors again, which helped us a lot over the past months. The USD is on its way to an overbought condition right now, which speaks for some recovery moves of its counterparts this week.

Accordingly, we set our trading bands a little lower for the USD in the major pairs for today’s trading, as described below. Note the U.S. trade balance for June at 14:30 CET, where an increase of the deficit is expected in the market. We expect the opposite.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
This market continues to hover above its support levels around 1.4000 this European morning and is currently trading at 1.4130. We see some recovery potential emerging today, but not leading much above the 1.4180 resistance level.

GBP / USD
The pound is consolidating its lower levels against the dollar in early European trading and is right now priced at 1.6450. We do not expect much more downside risk in this market and are waiting for recovery moves towards the 1.6520 mark.

USD / CHF
Still trading at its higher levels against the Swiss franc, the dollar is currently priced at 1.0810 in low volatility. We expect the 1.0800 support valid for today to be broken only slightly, with the market eventually reaching 1.0760.

USD / JPY
From its lower levels against the yen, the dollar recovered somewhat in this European morning and is currently trading at 95.70. We see more of that recovery to come today, up to levels around 96.20.