Since June, with lower volatility, the Greenback has been moving in tighter ranges than even before, tied to a trading band that is best illustrated by the EUR / USD equation, between 1.3900 and 1.4200. Neither this week’s economic data (which looks better for the U.S.) nor the positive results for the financial industry changed that fact. Even with today’s important U.S. economic factors (housing starts and permits for June), we do not expect any siginificant change in the market behavior.

Right now, and important for today’s further trading hours, the dollar gained some bid tone, coming off an oversold position. We see this stance continuing today, though in low volatility, as explained below in the major pairs list. U.S. housing starts and building permits are being published at 14:30 CET; expected is a slight increase in the numbers for June vs. May.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
The pair currently is in a weaker phase, trading right now 1.4100 in low volatility this European morning. We see more downside risk in today’s hours, but not much below the 1.4000 support level.

GBP / USD
The pound, usually more volatile than the EUR vs. USD, already lost considerable ground in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.6305 near a short term support zone. We expect the 1.6300 level to be broken on the downside today, leading to the 1.6250 mark.

USD / CHF
The dollar is currently trading in an up-turn technical patter against the Swiss franc, right now trading at 1.0775. We expect more of the USD’s strength to come today, testing eventually the 1.0830 resistance level.

USD / JPY
Only some minor recovery moves held the dollar at 93.70 against the yen in early European trading. We expect more consolidation moves on lower levels today, within a trading band between 93.20 and 93.90