Both Retail Sales and Producer Price reports yesterday in the U.S. signaled a continuous recovery out of recession. Because of the previous massive monetary and fiscal expansion, the market fears future inflationary dangers. That weighs on the dollar versus its trade partners, because it is the currency first expected to run into inflation. There is a feeling of such a thing in the Forex market right now, whether justified or not, so we defer from long positions in the dollar short term.
Accordingly, we put the trading bands for the dollar against the majors lower today, while still believing in a more or less sideways market. Note today’s full basket of U.S. economic data for June: Consumer Price Index at 14:30 CET, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 15:15. Further improvement for the economy is expected in the numbers, which are probably more important for the Forex market than the 20:00 CET U.S. FOMC protocol about current monetary policy.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is on a recovery path this European morning, with the market currently trading at 1.4055. We see some down corrections setting in soon, but not below the 1.4045 level. From there we expect further upmoves.
GBP / USD
The pound is still acting strong against the dollar in the early European trading hours, currently priced around 1.6370, from lows around 1.6000 yesterday. We expect this strong market behavior to continue today, even breaking the 1.6450 resistance level.
USD / CHF
The dollar lost over 150 pips against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently trading around its support zone for today at 1.0790. We see that support zone being broken on the downside in today’s trading, with the market reaching levels around 1.0700.
USD / JPY
Against the yen, the dollar gained more territory in Asian trading and continues to gain in the early European hours, currently trading at 93.50. We think that trend will continue in today’s trading, leading the market up to levels around 94.20.
Accordingly, we put the trading bands for the dollar against the majors lower today, while still believing in a more or less sideways market. Note today’s full basket of U.S. economic data for June: Consumer Price Index at 14:30 CET, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization at 15:15. Further improvement for the economy is expected in the numbers, which are probably more important for the Forex market than the 20:00 CET U.S. FOMC protocol about current monetary policy.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is on a recovery path this European morning, with the market currently trading at 1.4055. We see some down corrections setting in soon, but not below the 1.4045 level. From there we expect further upmoves.
GBP / USD
The pound is still acting strong against the dollar in the early European trading hours, currently priced around 1.6370, from lows around 1.6000 yesterday. We expect this strong market behavior to continue today, even breaking the 1.6450 resistance level.
USD / CHF
The dollar lost over 150 pips against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently trading around its support zone for today at 1.0790. We see that support zone being broken on the downside in today’s trading, with the market reaching levels around 1.0700.
USD / JPY
Against the yen, the dollar gained more territory in Asian trading and continues to gain in the early European hours, currently trading at 93.50. We think that trend will continue in today’s trading, leading the market up to levels around 94.20.
