Forex sometimes is awash with incoming economic figures and their interpretation, as it is right now as the world tries to find out where the economic train is going. First it is the unemployment rate here, then the monetary policy over there. Let’s put things straight: there are leading indicators, conincident indicators and there are lagging ones. Belonging to the leading ones (and those are the ones we are interested in for Forex) is money supply M1 and M2, new business formation and housing permits, and stock prices. Coincident ones, among others, are industrial production and personal income; they do not have much projection value. And to the lagging ones belong the unemployment rate and, believe it or not, the short-term interest rates and inflation - with almost no projection analysis power for the economy. Now all these numbers are mixed up in several interpretations, often leading to more confusion than clarity. For Forex, it is best in these times to follow the stock market, with its still inverse correlation with the dollar, while putting in some good chart-technical knowledge.
For today’s trading, we are concentrating on pure technical factors and leaving interest rate considerations, with the world on unchanged near zero rates. Equity markets do not provide enough direction right now as well. The USD is overbought again at the start of this week; we therefore project down correction moves today, as explained in the major pairs’ list below.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost further ground in early European trading and is priced right now 1.3930. We do not expect much more downside risk for today and see later on a recovery to above the 1.4000 level.
GBP / USD
Cable, although in a weak market this European morning, is preparing for a recovery today. With the market now at 1.6135, we put the maximum downside risk for today at 1.6090. The projected recovery could lead to 1.6290.
USD / CHF
The dollar strenghtened against the Swiss franc, especially in early European trading, and is currently priced near resistance levels around 1.0900. We expect the Greenback to lose its upward steam in today’s trading, and see eventually a setback towards the 1.0840 level.
USD / JPY
Against the ye, the dollar lost further ground in Asian trading and is currently priced at 95.30 and consolidating its lower levels right now. We expect this consolidation market to remain in today’s further trading hours, between the levels 95.60 and 95.15.
For today’s trading, we are concentrating on pure technical factors and leaving interest rate considerations, with the world on unchanged near zero rates. Equity markets do not provide enough direction right now as well. The USD is overbought again at the start of this week; we therefore project down correction moves today, as explained in the major pairs’ list below.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost further ground in early European trading and is priced right now 1.3930. We do not expect much more downside risk for today and see later on a recovery to above the 1.4000 level.
GBP / USD
Cable, although in a weak market this European morning, is preparing for a recovery today. With the market now at 1.6135, we put the maximum downside risk for today at 1.6090. The projected recovery could lead to 1.6290.
USD / CHF
The dollar strenghtened against the Swiss franc, especially in early European trading, and is currently priced near resistance levels around 1.0900. We expect the Greenback to lose its upward steam in today’s trading, and see eventually a setback towards the 1.0840 level.
USD / JPY
Against the ye, the dollar lost further ground in Asian trading and is currently priced at 95.30 and consolidating its lower levels right now. We expect this consolidation market to remain in today’s further trading hours, between the levels 95.60 and 95.15.
