Looking at the 4-hour chart of the pair, a possible head-and-shoulder formation is about to be completed, stretching over 15 days. 1.3800 has to be broken on the downside to confirm the bearish character of this formation. Similar pictures are formed in other major pairs, pointing to further strength of the USD. We are not there yet, although the week started with a pep up for the USD, in the sight of a pessimistic tone in the global stock markets.

For today’s trading, we consider the market to be too overbought for the Greenback to see much more upside potential. Accordingly, we put our trading bands sideways in the major pairs, as described below. There are no important market moving-data scheduled for today.

by George Clement

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
In heavily oversold condition in the week’s start, the pair currently is trading at 1.3860 near the 1.3800 support level. We see recovery moves in today’s trading, to 1.3950 at the least. Later on, a swing market could develop, between 1.3950 and 1.3800.

GBP / USD
Cable is just hovering above its 1.6300 support level for today in early European trading, which we expect to hold for today. The attempt to recover right now, with the market standing at 1.6350, will most probably be successful, leading to levels around 1.6450 later, before another possible downturn.

USD / CHF
Against the Swiss franc, the dollar is extremely overbought this European morning and is currently priced at 1.0900. Although the recovery potential is higher longer term, we do not expect much more upside potential in today’s trading, rather downward corrections to levels around 1.0820.

USD / JPY
An undecided market developed in late Asian and early European trading for the dollar against the yen, resulting in a narrow sideways trend between 98.50 and 98.20. We see the lower level at 98.20 of this trading band being broken today, with the market reaching the 97.80 support for today.