Four central banks are publishing their monetary policy this week, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia (that result is published already, rates unchanged). While it is not expected that any of these banks will lower interest rates further - they are already joining the zero interest rate club, except the RBA The biggest influence on the USD will come from the EUR, where the market expects further signs of quantitative easing. In other words, possible capital gain in the euro bond markets, especially German Bunds, is luring the money out of the USD into that market. But the EUR is heavily overbought right now, leaving litte upside room for the moment. Avoiding the possible higher downside volatility risk, we prefer very short term engagements this week, purely on a 15-minute technical overbought / oversold indicator. The other, safer, but longer-term alternative is to go long in the EUR / CHF pair, with a potential of 300 basis points this week.
In today‘s trading, we expect some recovery in the USD, correcting its heavily oversold situation. See below our list of the major pairs with the details of the expected trading bands. The pending U.S. home sales index for April, scheduled at 16:00 CET, could have influence on the market. Expected is a slight increase.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in further retreat this European morning, currently trading at 1.4120. We expect more downward corrections today, breaking the 1.4100 support level. The 1.4050 mark then could be tested.
GBP / USD
The pound is moving in tandem with the euro against the dollar in early European trading, having obviously met a major resistance point as well. After highs around 1.6500, the market fell back to now 1.6340. We see further downmoves today, leading to levels around 1.6250.
USD / CHF
European morning trading saw some recovery in the dollar against the Swiss franc, although in very low volume. Currently priced at 1.0715, we expect the recovery to continue, but only to 1.0820 resistance.
USD / JPY
Against the yen, the Dollar most probably has the prospect of only a very small trading band today, between 96.80 and 96.00. Currently trading around 96.20, some upmoves can be expected soon.
In today‘s trading, we expect some recovery in the USD, correcting its heavily oversold situation. See below our list of the major pairs with the details of the expected trading bands. The pending U.S. home sales index for April, scheduled at 16:00 CET, could have influence on the market. Expected is a slight increase.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in further retreat this European morning, currently trading at 1.4120. We expect more downward corrections today, breaking the 1.4100 support level. The 1.4050 mark then could be tested.
GBP / USD
The pound is moving in tandem with the euro against the dollar in early European trading, having obviously met a major resistance point as well. After highs around 1.6500, the market fell back to now 1.6340. We see further downmoves today, leading to levels around 1.6250.
USD / CHF
European morning trading saw some recovery in the dollar against the Swiss franc, although in very low volume. Currently priced at 1.0715, we expect the recovery to continue, but only to 1.0820 resistance.
USD / JPY
Against the yen, the Dollar most probably has the prospect of only a very small trading band today, between 96.80 and 96.00. Currently trading around 96.20, some upmoves can be expected soon.
