Forex has found an embarrassing new expression: the so called "stress test" of the U.S. banks, surprisingly resulting in better marks than expected. That is taken now for a reason why the Greenback is performing better than was expected before. But let us look closer: the stress test is most probably nothing other than smoke and mirrors, supporting of course the confidence in financial institutions for the time being, certainly an essential description in these times. But, interesting enough, four weeks before this "stress test" started, the financial authorities actually loosened the balance rules for U.S. banks, allowing them (again!) to value their books widely to their own choosing. So let us be cautious about a dollar recovery only relying on that finding. The fact for the moment is only the swing market, technically speaking, with the Greenback on a recovery path.
In this European morning, the USD is swinging back a little, correcting some of its recovery against the majors. Based on pure market and technical factors we expect more of the recovery to come today, as expressed in the detailed outlook for the majors below. Tomorrow there are market-moving indicators scheduled (housing data for April), today there are no data expected.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently trading above a support zone around 1.3400, the pair is priced right now at 1.3460 in this European morning, and attempting a recovery move. We do not expect this recovery to go very far, only to the 1.3490 mark at maximum, and see more weakness to come later, testing the 1.3390 mark.
GBP / USD
Cable is still trading in its now five-day trading range, between 1.5290 and 1.5100, presently in an upmove, at 1.5240 right now. We see a further downmove to come today, testing again the levels around 1.5100.
USD / CHF
The recovery move of the dollar against the Swiss franc in late Asian trading has lost its momentum in the early European hours, with the market currently priced at 1.1240. We see more of this recovery in today’s trading, eventually testing the 1.1350 level.
USD / JPY
After a dull Asian session, the dollar came to life in this European morning, recovering to levels around the current 95.80 from lows of 94.50. We expect this recovery to continue today, leading to marks around 96.50.
In this European morning, the USD is swinging back a little, correcting some of its recovery against the majors. Based on pure market and technical factors we expect more of the recovery to come today, as expressed in the detailed outlook for the majors below. Tomorrow there are market-moving indicators scheduled (housing data for April), today there are no data expected.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently trading above a support zone around 1.3400, the pair is priced right now at 1.3460 in this European morning, and attempting a recovery move. We do not expect this recovery to go very far, only to the 1.3490 mark at maximum, and see more weakness to come later, testing the 1.3390 mark.
GBP / USD
Cable is still trading in its now five-day trading range, between 1.5290 and 1.5100, presently in an upmove, at 1.5240 right now. We see a further downmove to come today, testing again the levels around 1.5100.
USD / CHF
The recovery move of the dollar against the Swiss franc in late Asian trading has lost its momentum in the early European hours, with the market currently priced at 1.1240. We see more of this recovery in today’s trading, eventually testing the 1.1350 level.
USD / JPY
After a dull Asian session, the dollar came to life in this European morning, recovering to levels around the current 95.80 from lows of 94.50. We expect this recovery to continue today, leading to marks around 96.50.
