Amid controversial fundamental reasoning, the dollar is consolidating at lower levels, resisting losing more ground in this European morning. This does not come as a surprise, considering the recent heavy selling mood based on inflation fears for the currency, leaving it in oversold condition. We expect the Greenback to find some firmer footing this week, based on market and technical considerations alone. On the fundamental front on the other side, there are interesting data being published today - the U.S. trade balance for March and the U.S. treasury budget for April. While the latter might not be that important, it‘s expected to be in deep deficit anyhow, the trade balance may show good improvement, a plus for the dollar.

In today‘s trading, we expect some bid tone to emerge in the dollar, as explained in detail in the major pairs projections below. The U.S. trade balance is scheduled at 14:30 CET, the U.S. budget at 20:00 CET.

Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders

EUR / USD
Trading near stiff longer-term resistance zones this European morning, currently priced at 1.3640, the pair is losing some of its upward momentum. We expect downward corrections today, to levels around 1.3470.

GBP / USD
In a bold move, cable is trying to break a long-term resistance zone in early European hours, currently trading at 1.5270, near the day’s high. We expect the upmove to lose momentum around the 1.5300 mark, turning into a down movement towards the 1.5150 level.

USD / CHF
In very quiet early European morning trading, the dollar is priced near the recent lows against the Swiss franc, right now at 1.1050. We don’t see much more downside risk in today’s trading, rather recovery moves up to levels around 1.1130.

USD / JPY
After a dull Asian session, the dollar recovered in early European trading against the yen, from lows around 97.20 to now 97.60. We expect more of this recovery to materialize today, leading the market to levels around 98.50.