This European morning brought more bad economic news from Germany (retail sales down again) and the Eurozone, in contrast to the U.S., where both the ISM Index for April and the Michigan sentiment index for April was better than expected. A development like that supports the EUR / USD pair, because it is taken as a further sign that the U.S. economy will recover first, and will first pay the price in higher inflation for the recent huge fiscal and monetary expansion. We do not expect, however, that the ongoing sideways market will change much before the ECB’s publication of its monetary policy is published on May 7.
For today’s trading, we see the support zones in the dollar, just tested in early European trading for the umpteenth time remaining intact, and expect a sideways market in the major pairs, as described below. Note the U.S. construction spending and pending home sales, both for March, at 16:00 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost some of its gained territory this European morning, trading down from highs around 1.3340 to now 1.3290. We see only a trading band for today, in lower volatility, between 1.3330 and 1.3260.
GBP / USD
Cable interrupted its now six-day-old uptrend against the dollar in early European trading, correcting downwards to 1.4870 right now. We project further down movements to come in today’s hours, to a support level of 1.4780 from where a bid tone can emerge again, but not above 1.4920.
USD / CHF
The dollar is trading quietly against the Swiss franc in this European morning, so far between 1.1390 and 1.1330 and recovering a bit right now, currently priced at 1.1370. We expect another slight setback from the current levels, not breaking the 1.1300 level today. The development of a trading band later between 1.1380 and 1.1300 is likely.
USD / JPY
In all of Asian and European trading, the dollar continued its uptrend against the yen and is currently attempting to break a resistance zone between 100.40 and 100.00, right now trading at 99.50. This resistance will be hard to take, and we expect downmoves from this area, probably testing an intermediate support around 98.50.
For today’s trading, we see the support zones in the dollar, just tested in early European trading for the umpteenth time remaining intact, and expect a sideways market in the major pairs, as described below. Note the U.S. construction spending and pending home sales, both for March, at 16:00 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost some of its gained territory this European morning, trading down from highs around 1.3340 to now 1.3290. We see only a trading band for today, in lower volatility, between 1.3330 and 1.3260.
GBP / USD
Cable interrupted its now six-day-old uptrend against the dollar in early European trading, correcting downwards to 1.4870 right now. We project further down movements to come in today’s hours, to a support level of 1.4780 from where a bid tone can emerge again, but not above 1.4920.
USD / CHF
The dollar is trading quietly against the Swiss franc in this European morning, so far between 1.1390 and 1.1330 and recovering a bit right now, currently priced at 1.1370. We expect another slight setback from the current levels, not breaking the 1.1300 level today. The development of a trading band later between 1.1380 and 1.1300 is likely.
USD / JPY
In all of Asian and European trading, the dollar continued its uptrend against the yen and is currently attempting to break a resistance zone between 100.40 and 100.00, right now trading at 99.50. This resistance will be hard to take, and we expect downmoves from this area, probably testing an intermediate support around 98.50.
