Although yesterday‘s 1Q GDP estimate of America was much weaker than expected, and most current economic indicators are still deteriorating, the U.S. Federal Reserve signaled that their "quantitative easing" (buying up long-term state and private bonds) is about to end, because it has already done the work to stimulate the economy. That optimism may be too early, but the dollar reacted immediately weaker and continues to weaken in this European morning. That illustrates the hidden inflation fear for the future in the markets, the punishment for exaggerated fiscal and monetary expansion, once the economy revives. The USD now probes its old support levels again, in the same trading bands known since the beginning of the year. Until we have clear facts that the U.S. economy has really passed its trough, we expect these bands to remain intact in the near future, now giving the USD room for recovery again.
In today‘s trading, and with the majors now bumping into stiff resistance zones against the dollar, we see recovery moves in the USD as described in the detailed projections below. Note the market movers for today: U.S. personal spending and personal income for March at 14:30 CET, where some further contraction is expected.
Due to the European May 1 holiday tomorrow, our next report will be Monday, May 4.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair continues to show strength this European morning, but is now meeting stiff long-term resistance levels around 1.3350. At the current price of 1.3330 we do not see much more upside potential in today’s trading, and rather expect a down correction to levels around 1.3250.
GBP / USD
It will be hard for cable to take the 1.4950 resistance hurdle today, as attempted already in early European trading. Currently priced at 1.4880, we expect a further but unsuccessful attack and a later downturn towards the 1.4750 mark.
USD / CHF
Once again, the dollar is checking the lower end of its trading channel against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1330. We see the market bombed out on the downside for today and expect recovery moves up to levels around 1.1400.
USD / JPY
All of Asian and early European trading saw an undecided dollar market against the yen, caught in a narrow trading range between 97.90 and 97.30, currently at 97.70. We do not expect a decisive move out of this range, although a slight bid tone for the dollar to be kept.
In today‘s trading, and with the majors now bumping into stiff resistance zones against the dollar, we see recovery moves in the USD as described in the detailed projections below. Note the market movers for today: U.S. personal spending and personal income for March at 14:30 CET, where some further contraction is expected.
Due to the European May 1 holiday tomorrow, our next report will be Monday, May 4.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair continues to show strength this European morning, but is now meeting stiff long-term resistance levels around 1.3350. At the current price of 1.3330 we do not see much more upside potential in today’s trading, and rather expect a down correction to levels around 1.3250.
GBP / USD
It will be hard for cable to take the 1.4950 resistance hurdle today, as attempted already in early European trading. Currently priced at 1.4880, we expect a further but unsuccessful attack and a later downturn towards the 1.4750 mark.
USD / CHF
Once again, the dollar is checking the lower end of its trading channel against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1330. We see the market bombed out on the downside for today and expect recovery moves up to levels around 1.1400.
USD / JPY
All of Asian and early European trading saw an undecided dollar market against the yen, caught in a narrow trading range between 97.90 and 97.30, currently at 97.70. We do not expect a decisive move out of this range, although a slight bid tone for the dollar to be kept.
