The estimate of the U.S. GDP for the first quarter is always widely observed - it will be published at 14:30 CET, expected to illustrate a deep recession, a bad sign for spring time, when economic activity usually is picking up. From this viewpoint, the dollar should be supported by a continued deflationary outlook. The other side is the Fed’s publication of its monetary policy today at 20:15 CET, where the market expects an unchanged near-zero interest rate decision, and a commitment to "quantitative easing" - printing money. This factor also supports the dollar for the time being (not at all for the longer term because of later inflation danger, of course), by rising short term the long-term bond markets. If that all is true, and considering the technical picture of the dollar’s stance in the market, it could be well buoyed today against the major pairs.
So far, and for today’s trading, the dollar is tending weaker in this European morning. We expect a U-turn in that stance today, and prefer to buy the USD within the levels described in the major pairs below.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in an upmove this European morning and about to test the 1.3250 resistance area, currently trading at 1.3215. We expect that resistance to hold in today’s remaining hours and see a later turn to a down movement, leading to prices around 1.3100.
GBP / USD
Cable is riding another attack today to the 1.4800 resistance line, the fifth of the last 8 days. Currently trading at 1.4760, we see that attack failing again, letting the market drop back to 1.4650.
USD / CHF
The dollar is again testing the support levels around 1.1350 against the Swiss franc and is right now priced at 1.1370 in early European trading. We expect that support to hold in today’s trading, giving room later for recovery moves up to 1.1450.
USD / JPY
In one of its typical countermoves, the dollar went up against the yen in all of Asian trading, continuing that stance in this European morning. Priced at 96.90 right now and off a low of 95.60, we do not see further strength in this market. A downside test of the 96.20 level is likely today.
So far, and for today’s trading, the dollar is tending weaker in this European morning. We expect a U-turn in that stance today, and prefer to buy the USD within the levels described in the major pairs below.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is in an upmove this European morning and about to test the 1.3250 resistance area, currently trading at 1.3215. We expect that resistance to hold in today’s remaining hours and see a later turn to a down movement, leading to prices around 1.3100.
GBP / USD
Cable is riding another attack today to the 1.4800 resistance line, the fifth of the last 8 days. Currently trading at 1.4760, we see that attack failing again, letting the market drop back to 1.4650.
USD / CHF
The dollar is again testing the support levels around 1.1350 against the Swiss franc and is right now priced at 1.1370 in early European trading. We expect that support to hold in today’s trading, giving room later for recovery moves up to 1.1450.
USD / JPY
In one of its typical countermoves, the dollar went up against the yen in all of Asian trading, continuing that stance in this European morning. Priced at 96.90 right now and off a low of 95.60, we do not see further strength in this market. A downside test of the 96.20 level is likely today.
