Trade and current account deficits are a fact on both sides of the Atlantic, but on a different scale. While the deficits in the Eurozone are growing, the deficits in America are shrinking. A trend, once established in the terms of trade of a country, usually has a long life. Take the balances of Japan, China or Switzerland, being in surplus for years, or consider how long the U.S. was in a deepening deficit trend. So the U-turn now taking place in America‘s deficits can be taken as a long-term improvement. And if that is true, the money flow is in favor of the dollar longer term. This view is supported by technical analysis, especially the positive chart picture in the Dollar Index.
For now, the trend in the major pairs is still sideways; in other words, the dollar will consolidate at higher levels. In today‘s trading, we do not expect a change in that, but see some bid tone for the dollar emerging within the trading bands described below. Note the U.S. existing home sales data for March at 16:00 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is about to attack the resistance zone between 1.3050 and 1.3190 this European morning and is currently trading at 1.3039. We expect that resistance to hold in today’s trading and see a later downturn to 1.2950.
GBP / USD
Cable has been in a sideways trend for two days now, currently in an upmove against the 1.4650 upper trend level and trading now at 1.4565 in European morning hours. We expect the upward momentum to ease around the 1.4620 mark and from there see renewed weakness, leading to price levels around 1.4490.
USD / CHF
The dollar is not showing much trend direction this European morning against the Swiss franc and is trading right now at 1.1620 in low volatility. We expect the 1.1600 support to more or less hold in today’s trading, from where an upmove towards 1.1700 is likely.
USD / JPY
In late Asian trading, the dollar finished a little higher against the yen and is currently trading at 98.20 in early European hours, from lows around 97.60. We see a continued slight bid tone in the market today, leading to prices around 98.60.
For now, the trend in the major pairs is still sideways; in other words, the dollar will consolidate at higher levels. In today‘s trading, we do not expect a change in that, but see some bid tone for the dollar emerging within the trading bands described below. Note the U.S. existing home sales data for March at 16:00 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair is about to attack the resistance zone between 1.3050 and 1.3190 this European morning and is currently trading at 1.3039. We expect that resistance to hold in today’s trading and see a later downturn to 1.2950.
GBP / USD
Cable has been in a sideways trend for two days now, currently in an upmove against the 1.4650 upper trend level and trading now at 1.4565 in European morning hours. We expect the upward momentum to ease around the 1.4620 mark and from there see renewed weakness, leading to price levels around 1.4490.
USD / CHF
The dollar is not showing much trend direction this European morning against the Swiss franc and is trading right now at 1.1620 in low volatility. We expect the 1.1600 support to more or less hold in today’s trading, from where an upmove towards 1.1700 is likely.
USD / JPY
In late Asian trading, the dollar finished a little higher against the yen and is currently trading at 98.20 in early European hours, from lows around 97.60. We see a continued slight bid tone in the market today, leading to prices around 98.60.
