After testing intermediate support levels, the euro and pound recovered about 200 pips after the Easter weekend, bringing both currencies again into overbought condition. The intermediate support for the EUR/USD lies around 1.3150, which was broken in Asian trading on April 10 reaching a low of 1.3089. Most probably that low will be met again today, leading then to new lows, probably towards the long-term support around 1.2500 over the next days. This is the medium-term technical picture, which is currently in opposition with the long-term fundamental outlook, if the U.S. economy is really on a recovery track this year. Current data points towards such a development, although it is too early to decide on that.
Short term and for today’s trading, we expect the dollar to develop more strength, pronouncing its bid tone that developed in Asian trading and in early European hours. Note the important U.S. March figures for retail sales (slight improvement expected) and producer price index (still no sign of rising inflation expected) at 14:30 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost some of its gained territory in late Asian and early European trading and is currently priced 1.3290, hovering above a temporary support level at 1.3265. We see this support only holding for a while, giving room for some upward corrections and later today being broken on the downside. The area around 1.3200 will then be tested.
GBP / USD
Cable is keeping an unusually strong bid tone this European morning, and may attack the recent highs around 1.4950. It’s currently trading at 1.4890. We expect this strength to ease soon, reversing course today, which will probably lead the market to the 1.4750 mark.
USD / CHF
The dollar gained further strength against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1410, up from lows around the 1.1300 level. Some downward corrections could now set in, but not breaking the 1.1390 support though, and, later today, we see more upward moves setting in, to a high of 1.1520.
USD / JPY
During Asian trading hours, we saw a further decline of the dollar against the yen, from highs around 100.45 to the current price of 99.70 in European morning trading. We expect a test of the 99.50 support level today and afterwards recovery moves up to the 100.15 resistance level are possible.
Short term and for today’s trading, we expect the dollar to develop more strength, pronouncing its bid tone that developed in Asian trading and in early European hours. Note the important U.S. March figures for retail sales (slight improvement expected) and producer price index (still no sign of rising inflation expected) at 14:30 CET.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair lost some of its gained territory in late Asian and early European trading and is currently priced 1.3290, hovering above a temporary support level at 1.3265. We see this support only holding for a while, giving room for some upward corrections and later today being broken on the downside. The area around 1.3200 will then be tested.
GBP / USD
Cable is keeping an unusually strong bid tone this European morning, and may attack the recent highs around 1.4950. It’s currently trading at 1.4890. We expect this strength to ease soon, reversing course today, which will probably lead the market to the 1.4750 mark.
USD / CHF
The dollar gained further strength against the Swiss franc in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1410, up from lows around the 1.1300 level. Some downward corrections could now set in, but not breaking the 1.1390 support though, and, later today, we see more upward moves setting in, to a high of 1.1520.
USD / JPY
During Asian trading hours, we saw a further decline of the dollar against the yen, from highs around 100.45 to the current price of 99.70 in European morning trading. We expect a test of the 99.50 support level today and afterwards recovery moves up to the 100.15 resistance level are possible.
