Usually the Federal Open Market Committee release (due today at 20:00 CET) opens up some trade opportunities, when it comes to deciding whether the dollar is going to be condemned or praised in the usual short-term view, but not this time. The Fed’s monetary policy is well known by now, such as quantitative easing or, as per the Fed expression "credit easing," which means buying up long-term bonds in quantities never seen before to normalize the distorted yield curve. That is already embedded in the market and it probably is the most practical solution for the current problems. However, because of this strategy’s future inflation implications, it may hurt the dollar in the longer term. Though, in the short term and for today’s trading, the release of the FOMC minutes has a 50/50 chance of either will the Fed stick to its "print money as long as you must or can" policy or is there already a change in that strategy, because the U.S. central bankers see an ecomonic recovery. In any case, the market is getting thinner now ahead of the long Easter holiday, making it more difficult to analyze it. So we would not be punters on the FOMC release today and avoid coin-flipping.
For the prospects in today’s trading, we’d better focus on hard fact, namely the recent bid tone in the dollar, which is a normal reaction to its prior weakness, and follow a pure chart-buff’s wisdom which points to a consolidation of the dollar at higher levels, creating a continuing sideways market today, as described for the major pairs below.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently on a slight recovery move in early European trading, the pair has left its recent lows around 1.3150 and is trading now at 1.3210. While the recovery might continue for a while, we expect later weakness to set in again today around the 1.3250 mark, eventually testing the 1.3150 support level again.
GBP / USD
The pound is still trading on its support zone around 1.4650 against the dollar and is currently priced at 1.4670 in European morning trading. We do not see much more downside risk in the pair, rather an upmove later today to the 1.4750 resistance level.
USD / CHF
After achieving highs around 1.1520 against the Swiss franc in late Asian hours, the dollar fell back a little in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1490. We expect a sideways trend to develop today with up movements setting in soon, but limited to 1.1550 on the upside and 1.1460 as a floor.
USD / JPY
The dollar continued to lose ground against the yen in all of Asian trading and is now at 99.80 in European morning trading. We see only some weak recovery moves today, changing soon into more weakness, which will be limited to the 99.50 support level.
For the prospects in today’s trading, we’d better focus on hard fact, namely the recent bid tone in the dollar, which is a normal reaction to its prior weakness, and follow a pure chart-buff’s wisdom which points to a consolidation of the dollar at higher levels, creating a continuing sideways market today, as described for the major pairs below.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently on a slight recovery move in early European trading, the pair has left its recent lows around 1.3150 and is trading now at 1.3210. While the recovery might continue for a while, we expect later weakness to set in again today around the 1.3250 mark, eventually testing the 1.3150 support level again.
GBP / USD
The pound is still trading on its support zone around 1.4650 against the dollar and is currently priced at 1.4670 in European morning trading. We do not see much more downside risk in the pair, rather an upmove later today to the 1.4750 resistance level.
USD / CHF
After achieving highs around 1.1520 against the Swiss franc in late Asian hours, the dollar fell back a little in early European trading and is currently priced at 1.1490. We expect a sideways trend to develop today with up movements setting in soon, but limited to 1.1550 on the upside and 1.1460 as a floor.
USD / JPY
The dollar continued to lose ground against the yen in all of Asian trading and is now at 99.80 in European morning trading. We see only some weak recovery moves today, changing soon into more weakness, which will be limited to the 99.50 support level.
