EUR / GBP - The Safer Trading Solution
After the surprising inflation data in the UK - the CPI rose in February by as much as 0,9%, bringing the annual rate of growth to 3.2%, the highest in five months - the market expects that the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the last estimate. Accordingly, the British pound reacted strongest among the majors. But such a move, only on a fragment of economic data which may be distorted by seasonal developments, seems too far-fetched and smells of failure. We would therefore not enter a buy on the GPB / USD, where the risk is higher, but prefer to sell strength in the EUR / GBP over the next days, since a clear longer-term overbought situation still exists. This currency cross is in a straight sideways move on the daily chart, but is still at the upper end of the longer-term trading range.
In today’s trading for the major pairs, we expect the ongoing correction in the USD to continue for some time, but it may soon bump into resistance. See our detailed outlook below. Note the 13:30 CET U.S. durable goods orders for February and the 15:00 CET U.S. February new home sales. More signs of stabilization in these economic segments are expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently trading at 1.3480 note far from the 1.3420 support zone, the pair is losing its downward steam in European morning trading. The important IFO business climate index for Germany this morning for March showed slower contraction expectations, which supports the euro. We expect up movements in the pair today, testing the 1.3550 resistance area.
GBP / USD
Cable is just about to finish a down correction in early European trading, from a high around 1.4780 yesterday to the present level at 1.4640. This is near a support zone, we expect higher levels again today, up to the old highs.
USD / CHF
The dollar managed to hold above its lowest levels against the Swiss franc in European morning trading and is currently at 1.1270, after its lows around 1.1170. We see these low levels being tested again today, but not broken meaningfully on the downside.
USD / JPY
After losing further ground against the yen in Asian trading hours, the dollar now seems to be stabilizing in European trading and is now priced at 97.60. We expect a test of the 97.40 support level today, leading afterwards to an upmove to above 98.00.
After the surprising inflation data in the UK - the CPI rose in February by as much as 0,9%, bringing the annual rate of growth to 3.2%, the highest in five months - the market expects that the BoE will be forced to raise interest rates by 50 basis points at the last estimate. Accordingly, the British pound reacted strongest among the majors. But such a move, only on a fragment of economic data which may be distorted by seasonal developments, seems too far-fetched and smells of failure. We would therefore not enter a buy on the GPB / USD, where the risk is higher, but prefer to sell strength in the EUR / GBP over the next days, since a clear longer-term overbought situation still exists. This currency cross is in a straight sideways move on the daily chart, but is still at the upper end of the longer-term trading range.
In today’s trading for the major pairs, we expect the ongoing correction in the USD to continue for some time, but it may soon bump into resistance. See our detailed outlook below. Note the 13:30 CET U.S. durable goods orders for February and the 15:00 CET U.S. February new home sales. More signs of stabilization in these economic segments are expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
Currently trading at 1.3480 note far from the 1.3420 support zone, the pair is losing its downward steam in European morning trading. The important IFO business climate index for Germany this morning for March showed slower contraction expectations, which supports the euro. We expect up movements in the pair today, testing the 1.3550 resistance area.
GBP / USD
Cable is just about to finish a down correction in early European trading, from a high around 1.4780 yesterday to the present level at 1.4640. This is near a support zone, we expect higher levels again today, up to the old highs.
USD / CHF
The dollar managed to hold above its lowest levels against the Swiss franc in European morning trading and is currently at 1.1270, after its lows around 1.1170. We see these low levels being tested again today, but not broken meaningfully on the downside.
USD / JPY
After losing further ground against the yen in Asian trading hours, the dollar now seems to be stabilizing in European trading and is now priced at 97.60. We expect a test of the 97.40 support level today, leading afterwards to an upmove to above 98.00.
