When it comes to trading the different crossings in Forex, one has to be careful placing a positition in these instruments. These smaller markets often lack liquidity and the spreads can become too expensive. But the risk is generally smaller than in the major pairs, and the fundamentals have more sustainability. The CHF /J PY equation usually shows low volatility, but liquidity there is sufficient enough to place low-risk intraday or longer-term trades. Low risk because of quite similar fundamental bases of the two countries: High export/import dependency, production of high quality goods and services, surplus of current account, high currency reserves, interest rates near zero and – in these difficult times – a monetary policy in "quantitative easing" mood. That gives us the chance in this equation to apply pure chart-technical considerations only. These currently point to an outright sideways market, with the CHF about to bump into resistance against the yen which is priced now at 85.60. A longer-term downward move is in the cards, first to 82.00, then to 78.00.
In today’s trading, we would sell the CHF / JPY above 86.50 (it is advisable to place price-limited orders in smaller markets). As to the daily outlook for the major pairs, we see more upward corrections to come in the dollar, based on its oversold situation, as explained in detail below. Note the 15:00 CET U.S. existing home sales release for February, where a further stabilizing of real estate conditions is expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD began the week with a consolidation of its higher level near the 1.3700 resistance zone. The pair is currently at 1.3640 in early European trading, currently in a slight downmove. We expect more of the down correction to follow today, leading to a level around 1.3560.
GBP / USD
Cable reached a high of 1.4625 in late Asian trading and is now on a retreat course in European morning trading, currently at 1.4520. We see those highs being attacked again today, but not broken on the upside. Weakness will follow, in our opinion, down to levels around 1.4500 again.
USD / CHF
The dollar continued its consolidation of low levels against the Swiss franc and is currently trading at 1.1260. We expect some strength to develop in today’s trading, up to resistance at 1.1320.
USD / JPY
After an undecisive start in Asian trading, the dollar is developing more strength in European morning trading and is currently at 96.40, about to break a resistance level. We expect this resistance to be broken on the upside today, with a following move up to the 97.20 mark.
In today’s trading, we would sell the CHF / JPY above 86.50 (it is advisable to place price-limited orders in smaller markets). As to the daily outlook for the major pairs, we see more upward corrections to come in the dollar, based on its oversold situation, as explained in detail below. Note the 15:00 CET U.S. existing home sales release for February, where a further stabilizing of real estate conditions is expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The EUR / USD began the week with a consolidation of its higher level near the 1.3700 resistance zone. The pair is currently at 1.3640 in early European trading, currently in a slight downmove. We expect more of the down correction to follow today, leading to a level around 1.3560.
GBP / USD
Cable reached a high of 1.4625 in late Asian trading and is now on a retreat course in European morning trading, currently at 1.4520. We see those highs being attacked again today, but not broken on the upside. Weakness will follow, in our opinion, down to levels around 1.4500 again.
USD / CHF
The dollar continued its consolidation of low levels against the Swiss franc and is currently trading at 1.1260. We expect some strength to develop in today’s trading, up to resistance at 1.1320.
USD / JPY
After an undecisive start in Asian trading, the dollar is developing more strength in European morning trading and is currently at 96.40, about to break a resistance level. We expect this resistance to be broken on the upside today, with a following move up to the 97.20 mark.
