The commodity-related Canadian currency suffered considerably in the last eight months, with oil, coal, timber and industrial metals tumbling. Now there are signs of a recovery price move in the oversold raw materials market. It is still unclear, though, whether it is a price reaction to just-depleted inventory or to rising industrial demand. But if we take the more stable world shipping freight rates into account, it could well be a sign of rising demand - if only at a slow rate. In any case, commodity prices clearly have found some support now, and the probability of further price recovery is high, at least in the shorter term. Based on these thoughts, the Canadian dollar offers a buying opportunity. In the USD / CAD equation, right now at 1.2690, a downmove first to 1.2400 and then towards the 1.2000 mark is in the cards longer term.
Short term for the USD / CAD, for today’s trading, we would wait for prices over 1.2750 because the USD is prone to an upward correction in its oversold market. That is visible in the major pairs as well, as explained in detail below. Note the potentially market-moving 14.15 CET publication of U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for February, where further signs of, at least slowing down, economic contraction are expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair started another attack on the 1.3000 resistance line in late Asian and early European trading, currently priced at 1.2970. We expect the current upmove to fade out soon in today’s trading and a turn to a downmove to the support level at 1.2890.
GBP / USD
Cable’s strength in early European trading led to prices now at 1.4180, near the important resistance zone between 1.4200 and 4250. We see that resistance zone holding in today’s trading, with consequent down moves to the 1.4100 level again.
USD / CHF
The dollar on its down move this European morning is about to test the 1.1800 support level, trading right now at 1.1835. We expect that level not to be broken in today’s trading, forecasting another upmove to 1.1890.
USD / JPY
Still consolidating its higher levels against the yen, the dollar has been caught in a narrow trading range in late Asian and early European trading, between 98.40 and 98.00, and is currently priced at 98.15. Another upmove for today can be expected, and with it a break of the 98.60 resistance level.
Short term for the USD / CAD, for today’s trading, we would wait for prices over 1.2750 because the USD is prone to an upward correction in its oversold market. That is visible in the major pairs as well, as explained in detail below. Note the potentially market-moving 14.15 CET publication of U.S. industrial production and capacity utilization for February, where further signs of, at least slowing down, economic contraction are expected.
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
The pair started another attack on the 1.3000 resistance line in late Asian and early European trading, currently priced at 1.2970. We expect the current upmove to fade out soon in today’s trading and a turn to a downmove to the support level at 1.2890.
GBP / USD
Cable’s strength in early European trading led to prices now at 1.4180, near the important resistance zone between 1.4200 and 4250. We see that resistance zone holding in today’s trading, with consequent down moves to the 1.4100 level again.
USD / CHF
The dollar on its down move this European morning is about to test the 1.1800 support level, trading right now at 1.1835. We expect that level not to be broken in today’s trading, forecasting another upmove to 1.1890.
USD / JPY
Still consolidating its higher levels against the yen, the dollar has been caught in a narrow trading range in late Asian and early European trading, between 98.40 and 98.00, and is currently priced at 98.15. Another upmove for today can be expected, and with it a break of the 98.60 resistance level.
