European economic news does not seem to influence the euro market much these days, when everyone is concentrating on the U.S., looking for signs of whether the business cycle has stabilized or not. Better than expected U.S. economic reports yesterday prompted an immediate downward correction in the USD. We expect this focus on U.S. economic news to remain this week, and the importance of next Thursday’s BoE and ECB rate decisions put on the "back-burner," with the market rather safely expecting another rate cut by these central banks (50 basis points by both). Accordingly, we see today’s speech by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke as more important. Presenting the economic and the budget siutation before the Senate’s fiscal committee, it will most certainly have an impact on today’s market. Any hint in that presentation (16:00 CET) which points to prospects of economic recovery will have a downward effect on the dollar.
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD pair, after visiting its last November lows again, is just bumping along these long-term support lines in the all-too-well-known sideways market. We see some further recovery moves in this pair today and expect the dollar to correct downwards against most of the world’s major currencies. See the detailed major pairs’ outlook below.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
In a recovery move this European morning, the pair is currently trading at 1.2630, having tested the resistance around 1.2680. We see more of that recovery mood to come in today’s trading, after a supporting low of 1.2620 is tested. On the upside, the market is limited at 1.2740.
GBP / USD
Cable recovered further, in low volatility during late Asian and early European trading, reaching a high of 1.4150 but trading back at 1.4090 currently. We do not expect much of a downside risk today, probably only a test of the 1.4050 level, from where further upmoves will set in, towards the 1.4190 mark.
USD / CHF
Currently trading at 1.1730, the USD / CHF remains range-bound, between 1.1770 and 1.1690 in early European trading. We expect a selling tone to emerge today, leading to the support levels around 1.1640, which we expect to hold.
USD / JPY
In a now three-day-old see-saw market, the USD / JPY is trading currently at 97.60 in the middle of a narrow trading range between 98.00 and 97.00. We expect the sideways market to continue in today’s trading between these levels. Right now, in European morning trading, the market looks set to test the 97.00 level.
Meanwhile, the EUR / USD pair, after visiting its last November lows again, is just bumping along these long-term support lines in the all-too-well-known sideways market. We see some further recovery moves in this pair today and expect the dollar to correct downwards against most of the world’s major currencies. See the detailed major pairs’ outlook below.
by George Clement
Intraday Market Outlook for Day Traders
EUR / USD
In a recovery move this European morning, the pair is currently trading at 1.2630, having tested the resistance around 1.2680. We see more of that recovery mood to come in today’s trading, after a supporting low of 1.2620 is tested. On the upside, the market is limited at 1.2740.
GBP / USD
Cable recovered further, in low volatility during late Asian and early European trading, reaching a high of 1.4150 but trading back at 1.4090 currently. We do not expect much of a downside risk today, probably only a test of the 1.4050 level, from where further upmoves will set in, towards the 1.4190 mark.
USD / CHF
Currently trading at 1.1730, the USD / CHF remains range-bound, between 1.1770 and 1.1690 in early European trading. We expect a selling tone to emerge today, leading to the support levels around 1.1640, which we expect to hold.
USD / JPY
In a now three-day-old see-saw market, the USD / JPY is trading currently at 97.60 in the middle of a narrow trading range between 98.00 and 97.00. We expect the sideways market to continue in today’s trading between these levels. Right now, in European morning trading, the market looks set to test the 97.00 level.
